WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

My main suggestion, for now, is that we all keep talking, making accusations and outlining suspicions. I have no wonderful strategy to put forward. I prefer to play things by ear and see what develops, particularly on Day 1. Our discussions today may be ill-informed, and accusations and suspicions will no doubt go awry. But accusations and suspicions force the Ducks to think, to act and react. And so these discussions may prove useful in days to come. I don’t hold with the oft-expressed dislike of Day 1’s. I find them rather exhilarating.

For my own part, I have outlined my current suspicions, based on what has been said so far. I stand by them, and you must judge me on them as you see fit. I will certainly be judging you all on the same basis – and will vote accordingly. Quite possibly wrongly, given the limited information available, but most certainly not randomly.

Playing Morgoth's Advocate here somewhat, as I pretty much agree with you...again...accusations and suspicions may force the Ducks to think, to act and react, but they also are the only ones with knowledge and can chase us up many a gum-tree. They are therefore...well, exhilirating...to a Duck. Though they can admittedly put them on the defensive, it won't be a very pronounced defensive, as no one will admit to knowing anything solid.

On the other hand, there's very little else we can do. I think I narrowly prefer Saucie's "find some flimsy reasoning" basis to Sleepy's "random" basis. Random votes are almost always not random anyway...

I myself often surrender to the strong temptation to thrw analysis to the wind and spend the first day avenging some absurdly petty grudge...

Originally Posted by Roa

Based on this, I have moved Nogrod and SPM to the top of my list. As well as Mith- she's not being her usually thoughful self.

Nogrod and SPM? What do they have in common, based on your reasoning above? I don't quite see how Nogrod makes it.

And I think perhaps we should give Mith a chance. The statistical stuff was useful for a short post, if a bit disturbingly dispassionate, I suppose. She'll be back with Enlightenment.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Ang

Nogrod and SPM? What do they have in common, based on your reasoning above? I don't quite see how Nogrod makes it.

Nogrod also keeps urging for startegies without really coming up with any viable ones (just his standard discussion of the gifted.)For all his talk, he's behaving in a very similar way to SPM, though they speak differently.

EDIT: Cross posted with Nogrod

[Roa_Aoife]

Nogrod- think of it this way. We won't know when the Owl dies, but niether will the Ducks, unless s/he chooses to reveal him/herself. This makes the game quite difficult for them. Rather than depend on dreams, (which, even when we find out who the seer is after death, can still be very misleading) why not depend on reasoned cases? We can all make those. You seem a little nervous this game. Something wrong?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Maybe it would be good, if we all ordos would go on hinting of our Owlish knowledge - just to confuse the ducks? I'm not sure about this one. In the bad instance, it would just leave us with even more confusion - if the ducks get the Owl untimely.

You do realize that stating your intent to do this completely nulifies this plan, since the Ducks can now simply look at who isn't hinting their Owlishness?

There is no reason for the Owl to not follow normal tactics because no one will know who they are when they die. We won't knw if dreams have been lost, niether will the ducks. This allows us to operate in confidence, while they must operate in paranoia. (Much like you seem to be showing.) Obviously is the Owl is about to be lynched s/he should come forward, but beyond that, I should think not. Now, let's leave the Owl alone and focus on Duck Hunting. (Awesome Old-school game....)

I accept SPM's answer... for now. However he is far too dangerous to not be looked at carefully. Especially if he is still alive tomorrow.

Something seems distinctly off about Nogrod. He's looking more and more suspicious to me now.

EDIT: Cross posted with last three

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by morm

Now to get this out of the way, hopefully, I suspect both Kath and SpM of Duckery and say they should hang.

Why? What are your reasons? Is this a nonsense accusation or a serious one?

[Roa_Aoife]

Just as a note: We are still waiting to hear from

Lote22
JennyHallu
Elu Ancalime

They still have plenty of time, though.

[Kath]

Ah that'll be a random one Roa. morm and I traditionally suspect each other, and we both suspect SPM. Just the way we do things!

[Nogrod]

[QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Nogrod- think of it this way. We won't know when the Owl dies, but niether will the Ducks, unless s/he chooses to reveal him/herself. This makes the game quite difficult for them. Rather than depend on dreams, (which, even when we find out who the seer is after death, can still be very misleading) why not depend on reasoned cases? We can all make those. You seem a little nervous this game. Something wrong?

C'mon... I will still be the one to call for reasoned arguments and cases. You seem not to have read what I have written - or then you are twisting my words. I wouldn't trust you in either of the cases (three games together, twice you have been a were-something)

And I have just been worried. The dreams have been quite instrumental in all the victories the villages have had - and that's 4/5 - as I have played the game (forgetting those "outside the Downs" -hints - that truly spoil the game - even if we win with them). I appreciate your contribution to the discussion - when you show (or try to show) me wrong. That's helpful for all of us. But I might like to ask, what makes you so jumpy to go on after others during the first day? Not kind of your way of playing?

And about everyone hinting something Owlishly...

You do realize that stating your intent to do this completely nulifies this plan, since the Ducks can now simply look at who isn't hinting their Owlishness?

You can't be that simple? Of course the Owl would not be the only one staying silent! Or maybe s/he would go on with the conversation? You can't be serious with that remark? You are trying to clear the waters here, where I deliberately wanted to muddy them... hmm... But happily, after this, all will be just one confusion to the ducks.

There is no reason for the Owl to not follow normal tactics because no one will know who they are when they die. We won't knw if dreams have been lost, niether will the ducks. This allows us to operate in confidence, while they must operate in paranoia. (Much like you seem to be showing.) Obviously is the Owl is about to be lynched s/he should come forward, but beyond that, I should think not.

I'm just not believing this... You can't be a were-creature again!

I would like to hear, why should the Owl play by the standard modus operandi in a game when the dynamics are so different, where after her/his death everything might be down the drain? How is it, that we can "operate" in confidence, and that the ducks will be paranoid?

I see you quick to rebutt ideas, but how about making some "reasoned cases" that you so much seemed to rever earlier in your post?

But anyhow. Good to see you drawn into the discussion with some stakes. Brave of you. I hope you others dare to take that move too. Otherwise we just give this day to the ducks for free.

[Anguirel]

Lord. Things are hotting up.

I do take issue with Roa on one minor point-

Originally Posted by Roa

I accept SPM's answer... for now. However he is far too dangerous to not be looked at carefully. Especially if he is still alive tomorrow.

This is seriously harsh on the unfortunate Orc. If he fails to die by duck soon, you will suspect him, you say, for that very reason. What if the ducks leave him to stew? The Saucepan Man is a human, er, Orc, and gets things wrong like the rest of us.

I tell you wereducks of true skill do not slay victims because of who they are, but because of what they do.

This Nogrod/Roa spat seems sudden and almost amusing, considering their original Unity against the Forces of Saucie. I almost feel an accusation of orchestration coming on...

[Roa_Aoife]

Ah that'll be a random one Roa. morm and I traditionally suspect each other, and we both suspect SPM. Just the way we do things!

Thanks for clearing that up Kath.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

C'mon... I will still be the one to call for reasoned arguments and cases.

I never said you weren't- who's twisting words now? Sure, you call for reasoned arguments and cases about your strategy, but not for catching ducks, which is what I was talking about.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I wouldn't trust you in either of the cases (three games together, twice you have been a were-something)

Actually, 4 times we have played together- twice I was the wolf, onceI was the seer, and once I was an ordo. Once you were were a seer, and all other times you were an ordo.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And I have just been worried. The dreams have been quite instrumental in all the victories the villages have had - and that's 4/5 - as I have played the game

I don't think those dreams were as instrumental in all games as you think they were. My first village lost our seer on the second night, and we went on to win the game. And, often times, the dreams can be twisted by the therianthropes. We are all intelligent players here, capable of finding the Ducks through our own analysis if need be. While the dreams are infinitely helpful, we can wim with out them.

You can't be that simple? Of course the Owl would not be the only one staying silent! Or maybe s/he would go on with the conversation? You can't be serious with that remark? You are trying to clear the waters here, where I deliberately wanted to muddy them... hmm... But happily, after this, all will be just one confusion to the ducks.

I want the waters to be clear so we can spot a Duck. What's to prevent the Ducks from partaking in this? Nothing. And the goose? Eru help us. Not only that, but continual hinting if the owl is involved could point quite obviously to who the Owl is. The Ducks know who's who, so they'll know which of us is on the ball. (And no, I'm not suggesting that you meant we should all come out saying we're the Owl and we know who's innocent. But if we all hint at Owlishness, and accuse/exonerate certain people, the Ducks will know which of us are on to something, and which of us are just full of hot air.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I would like to hear, why should the Owl play by the standard modus operandi in a game when the dynamics are so different, where after her/his death everything might be down the drain? How is it, that we can "operate" in confidence, and that the ducks will be paranoid?

Because that's always the case. After the seer's death in a normal game, there is no garruntee the villagers will interpret their posts properly. Everything might always go down the drain. But we can rely on reasoning, where as the Ducks will never know if they're safe or about to be found out. Hinestly, you put far too much stock in dreams.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I see you quick to rebutt ideas, but how about making some "reasoned cases" that you so much seemed to rever earlier in your post?

I am building reasoned cases. I don't have much to go on yet, but I am working on cases. Don't you worry about that. (Unless you're a Duck, in which case, go ahead and worry.)

Edit: Cross posted with Ang

[Roa_Aoife]

This is seriously harsh on the unfortunate Orc. If he fails to die by duck soon, you will suspect him, you say, for that very reason. What if the ducks leave him to stew? The Saucepan Man is a human, er, Orc, and gets things wrong like the rest of us.

I wouldn't hang him on that alone, Ang. I've pulled the same stunt before (and it almost worked!) but I know better than to lynch someone simply because they are alive. I won't be letting him out of my sight though. (I never trust anyone in a village untill they are proven innocent.)

This Nogrod/Roa spat seems sudden and almost amusing, considering their original Unity against the Forces of Saucie. I almost feel an accusation of orchestration coming on...

Well, Nogrod is doomed to distrust me, given our history together. Frankly, it would be weird if he did. (It's never really worked out for him before.) What can I say? We're both very agressive, and we both disagree often. Someday, we'll be on the same team and know it, and then we shall be quite the Dynamic Duo, fearsome to our opponents. Untill that time, we're going to argue a lot.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Someday, we'll be on the same team and know it, and then we shall be quite fearsome to our opponents. Untill that time, we're going to argue a lot.

And after it, I imagine!

Well, whether or not you've succeeded in confusing the ducks, you've completely befuddled me. It does my heart good to see a duel like that...reminds me of the heady days of the phantom's tirades...

Aggressive Roa and Nogrod both are, to be sure, but that Roa seems a spot more confident. Oh, that didactic first post! She Who Must Be Obeyed!

Incidentally, morm's back on form, but I still suspect him. He has made a possibility that the Goose will employ this ruse into a certainty. He has ensured that the Owl will not be believed till they deliver results. Hmm.

Kath, you seem to be striking from the shadows-anything of your own to add?

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by the spider lover

are the Ducks able to PM during Day, too?

Originally Posted by chubb fuddler

Well, the rules say

. So I assume they can't PM during the day. But maybe Moddess Goddess could confirm.

The Ducks are not allowed to PM each other during the Day. Ducks can only PM in Duckie form while they paddle about in the pond and that only happens at Night.

[Cailín]

I merely scanned, apologies if I missed something. First to answer some things:

That jumped out at me too. I would have thought that there are a number who could be in danger tonight, purely on the basis of reputation. Why pick on those two? Are you trying to set them up for a fall?

Feeling left out, SpM? In the last few games I followed / participated in Anguirel and Spawn were (one of the) first to die. Incidentally, in the games Anguirel and I were in together, either he or I or even both of us died before the second Night had ended.

Don't read too much in to it. I could not name all fabulous players in this game, now could I?

As for Nogrod, so desperately wanting to discuss the new Seer. There are three basic things the Owl could do:

- Declare himself rather early on
- Leave (obvious) clues
- Hoping to slip under the radar for a long time

All three ideas have merits and disadvantages and the Owl should decide him/herself what is best. Honestly, every player has a different style and they should react to the situation as they see fit. You are putting too much stress on the issue, Nogrod. If I were the Owl, I would have a plan and would want everyone to stop speculating.

--

I will have to read more closely to form actual suspicions. Nogrod and Roa_Aoife jump out with their continuous bickering, but then again Ordos can launch at each other as well.

I trust Mormegil for now, even though he is a silly idle Elf.

I am currently unsure about Anguirel and Saucepan Man. Both seem different somehow. The others have said too little to be on my radar as of yet.

I am going to reread everything now. Be back soon.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I merely scanned, apologies if I missed something. First to answer some things:

Feeling left out, SpM? In the last few games I followed / participated in Anguirel and Spawn were (one of the) first to die. Incidentally, in the games Anguirel and I were in together, either he or I or even both of us died before the second Night had ended.

Don't read too much in to it. I could not name all fabulous players in this game, now could I?

As for Nogrod, so desperately wanting to discuss the new Seer. There are three basic things the Owl could do:

- Declare himself rather early on
- Leave (obvious) clues
- Hoping to slip under the radar for a long time

All three ideas have merits and disadvantages and the Owl should decide him/herself what is best. Honestly, every player has a different style and they should react to the situation as they see fit. You are putting too much stress on the issue, Nogrod. If I were the Owl, I would have a plan and would want everyone to stop speculating.

--

I will have to read more closely to form actual suspicions. Nogrod and Roa_Aoife jump out with their continuous bickering, but then again Ordos can launch at each other as well.

I trust Mormegil for now, even though he is a silly idle Elf.

I am currently unsure about Anguirel and Saucepan Man. Both seem different somehow. The others have said too little to be on my radar as of yet.

I am going to reread everything now. Be back soon.

You missed several Owl strategies-it's more complicated than you'd have it. I won't say any more than that in-jokes can be an Owl's salvation.

It's true what you've said about our careers. True and most tragic. Sniff.

Your vote against Nogrod's plan convinces me. Precisely because of that, I am inclined to think Nogrod far more innocent than Roa.

Some justification for your confidence in morm?

And finally, yes, I know what's wrong with me. I haven't made any completely wild and ludicrous accusations on apparently intelligent grounds yet. That's because I've been trying unsuccessfully to construct one against Saucie for most of the afternoon...

[Roa_Aoife]

Your vote against Nogrod's plan convinces me. Precisely because of that, I am inclined to think Nogrod far more innocent than Roa.

You suspect me because I argued against a bad plan? Alright....

And you know, it wouldn't be a Nogrod/Roa spat if more people got involved, like Cailin and Morm. (Thank you Cailin/Morm.)

I'm signing out for a bit. I'll be back on about 5 hours before voting closes.

[Cailín]

You missed several Owl strategies-it's more complicated than you'd have it. I won't say any more than that in-jokes can be an Owl's salvation.

Did you note the 'basic' strategies? I see your point.

Your vote against Nogrod's plan convinces me. Precisely because of that, I am inclined to think Nogrod far more innocent than Roa.

Hmm... I have been reading their argument carefully (and a good read it is) but cannot say either one of them strikes me as particularly Duckish. I'd say Nogrod would be less inclined to discuss the Owl thing so openly were he a wereduck. But on the other hand, I do not think we should start accusing Roa for overconfidence and what -in my ears- makes sense.

Some justification for your confidence in morm?

Little enough, other than that his Goose comment was something I had not thought of previously. However, your suspicion, Ang, might be justified as well.

--

I have reviewed my opinion: I am not suspicious of the Saucepan Man. Most of the things he said are perfectly sensible. Even though I think that in principle a wolf can hide better behind clever reasoning and (far-fetched) cases than random votes.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Ang

I tell you what I'd like at some stage, when we've all talked a bit more. One of those nice, gently ironic, summary of everything posted so far posts by Lady Spawnowen (or is it Ghashspawnthrurg?) They have a rather stabilising effect, like a drink of water. Even when she's guilty...

For those words I would have given you one! But alas, nowadays I really don't have the time in my hands to write them. I'm planning on launching a rocket anytime soon, you see, and I need to sew my eight-legged co-pilot's space suit ready. If I don't get killed next Night as Cailín so cheerily predicted, I'll see if I have time for a summary later.

Talking about tactics so fiercely on Day 1 seems a bit odd. I think we shouldn't agree on a strategy about how to act in certain situations beforehand. Compared to the Ducks, that's one advantage we have: the freedom to change our minds during Day.

Now, onto other things. There are still a few who haven't said anything. I look forward to hearing from them.

The discussions are going on very much like I would have expected, but as I said, I wonder all this talk about Gifteds. Even if the point wasn't to secretly flush out Gifted villagers, it distracts us from spotting the Ducks. Those who join the debate can sure appear helpful and they don't fly under the radar... a duckish scheme? I will reread everything before I make conclusions of this all, though.

One more thing: Mith, four exclamation marks if someone puts you on their suspect list? A little snappish, are we?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Cailín

As for Nogrod, so desperately wanting to discuss the new Seer.

Well. I don't think I have any reason to be "desperate" about subjects to discuss. I have just tried to do my part in
a) helping the village (which I see is happening, as different scenarios and possible traps are brought forwards - slowly, yes, but coming)
b) spurring some more genuine discussion than this "oh how sad that fine-versed halfling is gone!"

And at least I myself have gained some food for thought. Spm. was quick to renounce my initial idea, but came back much smoother after reasoning (and is this reasonable-villager conduct - or very ducky-one?). Roa has been more attacking than ever... she's normally the cool reasoner.

= Roa (answering Ang)
You suspect me because I argued against a bad plan? Alright....

You can't argue against a bad plan if there is none, Roa! Sorry. I've given suggestions for people to think - and by that make out together our common good. As I said, as long as you point to bad ideas in my suggestions, you are doing good... as they are out there to be evaluated and thought of.

I promise to try some new routes on my next post - as I have time for it.

EDIT: X-posted with Cailin & Anguirel

[Valier]

Ggggrrrr can't a dwarf get a quiet sleep around here?.......I guess not! All you chattery Elves and the likes! I must read through the days posts, but will be around again shortly.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Sorry for the lack of interaction today but I've been busy and still am. However I'd like to say (sorry if said before) that any plan, no matter how much it may distract, should be taken into consideration. For while we may go off the subject off catching us some ducks we may find ourselves an innocent or such. Or trying something else could confuse the ducks.

Hopefully I'll have more time to interact tomorrow (Next Day).

[The Saucepan Man]

This is a noisy village, for the most part, as I suspected it would be. I’m gonna have quite a hard time keeping up.

I see that Nogrod has succeeded in making Owlish tactics and the merits of dicussing them the main topic of conversation after all. This I regard as entirely unhelpful, for the reasons that I stated earlier. Nevertheless, as others have said, it is quite typical for him on Day 1, and it would be foolish for a Duck to draw attention to himself so. So I hesitate to believe him Duckish purely on the basis of this.

Nevertheless, the discussions centred around our Owl have already done some potential damage, I believe, which really ought to be remedied. Nogrod suggested that we should all drop hints, suggesting our Owlishness, so as to “buy time” for the real Owl. How ludicrous would that be? Every time that an innocent dies, we will be scanning their posts and making accusations based on them, on the basis that the dead villager might have been the real Owl. A lot of dead innocents lie down that road. The Owl too would have to drop hints, since not to do so would mean that he or she would stick out like a sore thumb. But the Owl’s hints would have to be true, so as not to render them useless. And who is in the best position to spot this? I’ll give you a clue. They have bills and webbed feet. So the plan, at best, delivers a pile of dead innocents and, at worst, a dead Owl. ‘Tis a silly plan. We should not go there.

Hmm, maybe I should reassess my opinion of Nogrod. But no. Surely it would be too risky for a Duck to suggest such a dangerous plan here at the beginning of all things.

As for mormegil’s observation that the Goose might try declaring as an Owl, it would be a foolish thing to do, assuming that the Owl is on his or her talons. To be believable, the Goose would have to declare one, probably two, “Ducks“. A wise Owl will remain silent - that should go (and should have gone) without saying. Either the Goose gets “lucky” and a Duck is lynched (in which case the Goose is failing in his or her task) or an innocent is lynched, swiftly followed by the Goose. But by identifying this as a potential risk, you make it more likely that a real Owl declaration, on Day 3 for example, will not be believed. On the contrary, I think that we should believe any Owl declaration. It can soon be accurately, and lethally for a Goose masquerading as an Owl, tested.

This is exactly what I meant when I suggested that we should avoid discussion of Owlish strategy. Not only do we risk putting the Owl in a difficult position, but we also risk tying ourselves up in knots. And now you have got me doing it, albeit to try to repair the damage that has already been done. I suggest we leave the Owl and the other Gifteds to get on with their business and get on with our own which, for true ordos, is analysing, testing, putting forward theories, accusing and, ultimately, voting.

More in that vein soon, although it might not be for an hour or so as my dinner of rat’s tails and mouldy potatoes is shortly to be served …

[mormegil]

I tried to be patient with you orc but you push me to far.

First, elves are not Tarks .

Second, I pay people because I can and I use my own mind for high and mighty matters, not the slaying of some ducks.

Now I've been thinking and while generally I'm not a fan of owl (seer) talk I think I have something to add preemptively before the goose, if he/she is intelligent will do. I see no harm in stating this though there are some that think ill of me.

Let's think about this shall we:

1. When dead the roles will not be revealed, this includes goose and owl.
2. If the owl proclaims him/herself we will not know of the truth unless we try his/her words.
3. The goose wants to help the Ducks
4. What better way to help than flush out the owl early on?

A strategem I would use, if I were the goose, would be to declare myself the owl on day 3, maybe day 2, and hope that the real owl declares themself. So if you are the real owl and an imposter declares themself, use your discretion.

How is that SpM and Ang? Satisfy you?

Now to get this out of the way, hopefully, I suspect both Kath and SpM of Duckery and say they should hang.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Let's think about this shall we:

1. When dead the roles will not be revealed, this includes goose and owl.
2. If the owl proclaims him/herself we will not know of the truth unless we try his/her words.
3. The goose wants to help the Ducks
4. What better way to help than flush out the owl early on?

A strategem I would use, if I were the goose, would be to declare myself the owl on day 3, maybe day 2, and hope that the real owl declares themself. So if you are the real owl and an imposter declares themself, use your discretion.

Thanks Morm! This is just what I want us to do! I hadn't even come to think about the goose at this point of the game (haven't ever been in a game with that kind of cobbler-like person) - I could think of a duck doing this, but the goose element will be another distress for us here. So even more posture and mayhem. Needs to be considered by the Owl.

If we all have even one good (or just plausible) idea, then the Owl will have much to think about - and we can communally drop the bad ones - to help her/him to judge the situation in the best way possible.