Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Alcarillo]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Actually I did not mean it a threat, per se, more as a prediction. Let us hope that many of my predictions were overly dire and don't come true. I've considered myself a friend of your wife these many years, especially since both your sons have shown interest in my daughters from time to time. Many afternoons were spent drinking tea and eating honeycakes while clucking our tongues and gossiping about the antics of our children.

Comforting words. I'm glad somebody approves of my son. *glares at morm and Celuien*

By the way, if you see your elder son any time soon tell him that if he wants to court my Zali he'd better keep away from Evil Wizards, or he'll have hell to pay!

I can assure you that Cailin and I allow absolutely no black magic in our household.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

That gives me an idea. We have to find those wizards. Well, maybe not 'those' wizards so much as a wizard. It'd be pretty hard to find both, but we don't have to. Think about it. If we try to lynch the Evil Wizard and thus reveal him, then the Good Wizard can call him out and kill him. Then we can concentrate on finding all the wolves that will be running around. Conversely, if we accidentally try to lynch the Good Wizard, then we will know who he is and be able to follow his lead. The Evil Wizard won't be too eager to battle him, as his [the EW's] strength lies in surviving for long enough to make lots of wolves.

It would be much harder on us if we lynch the Good Wizard (no new gifteds, for one thing), so I would focus primarily on hunting down the Evil Wizard to stop the cursings.

So, in summary, I think we should aim to lynch people who would not be obvious Seer choices. And on that note, I think we should look at Naria or Alcarillo or Azaelia or Lommy or Lalaith.

You want to lynch me?! I have to be careful of what I say from now on...

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

It would be much harder on us if we lynch the Good Wizard (no new gifteds, for one thing), so I would focus primarily on hunting down the Evil Wizard to stop the cursings.

Well, even if we did attempt to lynch the Good Wizard, we can't kill him. So basically we would only force him out, but I don't think that that really hurts us.

So phatom, if werewolves are ugly, how about you take off that burly cloak and show us how you look...

But I'm inclined to agree with you about Azaelia, though, despite her being on my little maybe-to-lynch-toDay list above. But it's not because she's so beautiful... *trys to think of another reason*... uhm... ( )

[Caranlondien]

Well, Gurthang's idea of searching for the evil wizard seems to make sense to me. We must help our good wizard in his/her search! As for the danger of accidentally stumbling upon the good wizard and revealing him/her, it seems to me that by the time the evil wizard would be in such a position that he/she would actually want to challenge the good wizard (i.e., by the time our poor village has been overrun by werewolves), chances are that the evil wizard would have found the good wizard on his/her own, anyway.

An aside: Blast these pronouns! I just don't want to unconsciously make assumptions about the genders of the wizards...

[the phantom]

Gurthang, you speak wise words. Trying to lynch the wizards isn't a bad idea. The GW won't stay hidden for long, so it won't hurt too much to reveal him/her. However, I think we can do better than lynching the GW. The GW and EW will likely have different playing strategies. I won't go into detail now, but there are certain things that will likely define the way the GW and EW post during the day, and we can use those behaviors as a guideline, making it more likely we will lynch the EW than the GW.

Every night, the GW has a chance of scrying the EW or scrying the same person the EW curses, and the Seer has a chance of spotting the EW. On top of that, if we villagers try our best to lynch the EW every day, that will give us three chances per cycle of catching the treacherous villain.

Honestly, catching an independent EW is no more difficult than catching wolves right now in a way, because though the wolves are "on the same team", they are likely clueless as to the identity of his/her wolvish counterpart, thus they will not be supporting each other or functioning as a team in any way.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I do not think we should worry about Saucepan Man. Here's why: Even if he is turned into a wolf (which would be the only reason we would want to lynch him) then he'll probably be revealed sooner rather than later anyway. That's because any good Seer will dream of him first (or close to that). So, if the Seer will dream of him, then we'll have a good way of figuring out if he's a wolf or not.

I believe you speak truth. If you ask me, Sauce and I (and some others, perhaps, such as morm, Eomer, and Firefoot) will not be turned into a Werewolf early in the contest. The longer one is a wolf, the better chance there is of getting caught, especially if the Wolf is a likely Seer/GW target. If the EW wants to curse me (or one of the others I named), it would make much more sense for him/her to do so late in the game, right before the death of the wizards.

Also, don't bother looking for clues from the Seer. The Seer will no doubt be passing on all dream info to the GW, and leave it to him/her to divulge. The primary goal of the Seer is to avoid being killed and continue nightly activities. Unfortunately, this is identical to the goal of the EW, and so if we adopt Gurthang's plan of trying to lynch the EW, we might lynch the Seer by mistake.

(and no, I don't believe Gurthang had this in mind when he recommended it)

No matter how this village fares, we are likely to see a lot of death in the coming weeks. In my many travels I've heard stories of events such as these, and few of them ended well, and the ones that did- there weren't many left to celebrate. I, myself, fully expect to die before the end. But no matter. Let us all keep a stiff upper lip through these events, and not allow grief to stop us from doing our duty- stopping this tide of evil here and now! If we fail, there is no telling how far the evil will spread.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by tp

I won't go into detail now, but there are certain things that will likely define the way the GW and EW post during the day, and we can use those behaviors as a guideline, making it more likely we will lynch the EW than the GW.

Well, I'll be on pins and needles to hear this... I've been giving it some thought and haven't really come up with any good ideas about what sorts of posting may indicate Wizadry. I kind of expect the Evil Wizard to be quiet, though, since most of his/her activity will take place during the Night and the less noticable s/he makes his/herself during the Day the less chance s/he'll have of being dreamt about. But "quiet" can often describe a good many players, so I'm feeling a bit vague on that score.

I must say, to discover the Evil Wizard toDay or next Night would be excellent luck for the village, since there are only two Werewolves and a massive amount of villagers. I really don't think the wolves could stand such odds; though they might be able to hide among the masses for a while, eventually I expect their luck would run out.

[Naria]

Lmp will be missed, he always showed my the lighter side of my occupation and it always seemed to pull me through another days work with a smile.

Speakin of, I have to say that I honestly hate my job(shouldn't have been so quick to jump on that ad in the Daily Herald).....and the lot of you really need to cut back on your fiber consumption. Always so full of crap and the like.

Which reminds me, I don' t trust any of you at this point! Only except of course for my dear mummy, my doting dad(where is he by the way, Mum?) and of course my older sis.

[Oddwen]

Ewwwwwww, gross! Poor man! I'll have to keep my chickens locked up good an' safe tonight!

I think mr. the phantom's plan is a good one - though how to go about finding a wizard without using magic is a tough cookie...

That Oddwen has always been a rather strange child as well; can't say I'd quite trust her, nor her aunt, letting her carry on with those antics of hers.

Let her try an' stop me! :P

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

I won't go into detail now, but there are certain things that will likely define the way the GW and EW post during the day, and we can use those behaviors as a guideline, making it more likely we will lynch the EW than the GW.

Originally Posted by Diamond

I've been giving it some thought and haven't really come up with any good ideas about what sorts of posting may indicate Wizadry.

Oh, I bet you probably have a good idea, it's just that you know you could be wrong because of the bluff factor.

To make a long explanation short (and more simple than it really is), to figure the wizards out, all you have to do is think about what the two wizards fear.

[Naria]

To make a long explanation short (and more simple than it really is), to figure the wizards out, all you have to do is think about what the two wizards fear

.

Okay, I'll take a stab at this one Phantom. Would it be eachother?

[the phantom]

(because it's annoying to type his/her him/herself and such all the time, I'll just refer to roles like EW and GW with masculine pronouns- don't read into it)

Originally Posted by me

To make a long explanation short (and more simple than it really is), to figure the wizards out, all you have to do is think about what the two wizards fear.

Originally Posted by Naria

Okay, I'll take a stab at this one Phantom. Would it be eachother?

Sort of, in the sense that a wizard challenge is the only thing that can kill them, but why should they fear death? They have to die. That's the way this works. So they don't fear death so much as the balance of the village at the time of their death.

The Evil Wizard wants to make lots of wolves. The Good Wizard wants to make lots of gifteds, but can only make a maximum of three. After Night 3, the EW adds to his den every night, but the GW does not. That means that the GW wants the wizard challenge to happen early in the game, therefore he does not fear the mass revelation of his identity. For all he cares, the EW can challenge him now.

And so, since he cannot be lynched, cannot be killed by wolves, and cannot be cursed by the EW, the Good Wizard fears NOTHING!

(other than it taking a long time to find the EW)

The Evil Wizard, on the other hand, does not want to be discovered any time remotely soon. Therefore he fears being lynched, fears being scried, fears being dreamed about by the Seer, and fears choosing the same villager at night as the GW. The Evil Wizard fears EVERYTHING!

[Diamond18]

Okay, I'll take a stab at this one Phantom. Would it be eachother?

I think Naria gets the toaster oven (eek, OOC... um, backtracking, rethinking) Naria gets the iron cooking rack.

I was going to say "Spiders?" Also possibly, rats, mice, snakes, leeches, potato bugs, or butterflies. But then, I should have been in bed half an hour ago and my wee little noggin is shot.