Why Moria?

[Rhod the Red]

"Aragorn says the risk of snow lessens in the south, and at lower altitudes. Therefore it can be logically deduced that risk of snow is greater in the north, and at higher altitudes."

He didn't assert the storms occur more North, just higher up mountain level. Again, you're infering.

"were not thinking of risks." I didn't say they weren't, Legolas.

"Aragorn uses the word "risk" in the comment at the top of this post." Did I say Aragorn doesn't mention 'risk'? I asserted no one talked about 'risk' regarding the High Pass as a passage to use.

[Legolas]

Aragorn says the risk of snow lessens in the south,

So the risk of snow must greaten in the north. If something lessens as one moves south, it greatens as one moves north. If the chance of snow lessens as you move any distance south, moving that same distance up must greaten the chance of snow. That is the nature of north and south. They are relative to one another.

Inference is not speculation in this case. To infer that a smile means good intentions is a speculative inference. To infer that north and south are exact oppisites and not exact places is not.

"were not thinking of risks." I didn't say they weren't, Legolas.

You said this while it was clear that Aragorn was talking about risk. You said "Misty Mountain passes" - not "the High Pass." If this was a misstatement, it's okay.

The only person talking about risk is you, the Fellowship didn't, nor the Council of Elrond, regarding the Misty Mountain passes.

[Tuor in Gondolin]

About arguments against heading west from Rivendell:
As it turned out the path might well have been clear if
the Fellowship had left immediately after the Council,
certainly Nazgul would have been a nonfactor, as was
quickly established (by a high probability) at the Council,
and I question using months to push that probability up
a bit by searching far to the north, south, and east, as
Aragorn etc. did- as opposed to leaving right away.

The point of encountering different cultures is a good one.
I've thought of it and it seems JRRT could have rearranged
things to cover almost all (for example, relocating Lorien
to an area in Andrast), then having the Fellowship attacked
and splitting up, the three walkers chasing orcs and Merry and
Pippin while Sam and Frodo go across south Gondor,
receiving aid from Imrahil (including crossing the Anduin).
This would still allow Aragorn's involvement in Rohan and going
on the Paths of the Dead and give Imrahil a much more
interesting/complex situation. However, it doesn't seem to
realistically allow for a direct (even if relocated) Moria
involvement. You'd probably have to cram too much into one area.

The overall point of water travel in a preindustrial age is that
it is much faster (and if deep ocean travel is avoided) generally
much safer then land travel, and coastal travel, at least to the
Andrast, would seem to fulfill those requirements.

[goldfinger]

From my own evalutations, I have come the conclusion that there was no direction which the Fellowship could have taken them that would been any safer or quicker than the others. For instance, going South would have taken them into Dunland home of the Wildmen, then there was Isengard and the very long trip through the fifes of Gondor. Going North you would have taken them either through one of the several dangerous passes crawling with Orcs, Giants and Trolls or into the Fordowaith, where many evil things such as Dragons lurked. West, would have been the very longest trip of course. Finally, East threw Rhun which would probably be the most dangerous route considering the evil kingdoms of Men that dwelt there.

[Tuor of Gondolin]

West, would have been the very longest trip of course

In distance, perhaps. But west by elf boat, hugging the
coast south to Andrast would be much faster then walking,
and you could postulate some further help across south
Gondor by Imrahil.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Tuor of Gondolin

In distance, perhaps. But west by elf boat, hugging the
coast south to Andrast would be much faster then walking,
and you could postulate some further help across south
Gondor by Imrahil.

If you're starting in the Shire, yes. If you're starting at Rivendell- which is whether the decision to destroy the Ring was made, then it's about as far back to the Grey Havens as it is down to Rohan, and Rohan to Mordor is about the same as Belfalas to Mordor- so even a fast sea voyage means needless extra time if you're starting in Rivendell.

[Rhod the Red]

"even a fast sea voyage means needless extra time if you're starting in Rivendell." Hear, hear! Longer than over the Misty Mountains, certainly.