Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Nogrod]

Funny. When I try to be considerate / being busy, I'm the top of the suspicionn list... Great. Well, you just vote as you wísh. But don't go weeping afterwards.

But yes:
Lalaith has not appeared.

Roa and Sleepy have not appeared (Roa told she would have trroubles)
Morm has posted, but has not said anything, Valier has been careful too, and so has Kath.

Loki has been amazingly quiet after all the bragging, and even though Nilp didn't vote for himself this time, he had seemed to have no grounds whatsoever to his vote anyways...

The current standings are here:

Nilp --> Nogrod
Lhuna -->Eomer
Gurthang --> Thinlomien
Diamond --> Loki
Eonwe --> Nilp
Cailin --> Oddwen

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Valier has been careful too, and so has Kath.

I wouldn't be over-worried about those two. IAccording my lorebook they're always careful.

I'm going now! Have a good night and Night!

[Firefoot]

Nogrod – 5 (Nilp 1, Naria 10, Eomer 11, Lommy 12, Loki 16)
Eomer – 1 (Lhuna 2)
Lommy – 4 (Gurthang 3, Kath 14, Celuien 20, Firefoot 21)
Nilp – 1 (Eonwe 5)
Oddwen – 2 Cailin 6, Glirdan 18)
Loki – 5 (Diamond 4, Caran 7, Fea 15, Nogrod 17, Lalaith 19)
SpM – 2 (Jenny 8, Alcarillo 13)
Kath – 1 (Morm 9)

++Lommy

I've had a bad feeling about her that's been growing all Day. She just seems to be objecting to many of the 'wrong' things, and her posts have been standing out to me above most of the others.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I understand the bad feeling about Thinlomien, but in my previous experience, she always gives me a bad feeling.

If I had the choice, I certainly wouldn't curse her because she is one of those villagers good at getting into trouble [read: getting lynched]. That's why I think the EW stayed away from her.

[Nogrod]

Just an update on the votes so far...

Loki – 8 (Diamond 4, Caran 7, Fea 15, Nogrod 17, Lalaith 19, Valier 23, Kitanna 24, Zali 25)

Nogrod – 6 (Nilp 1, Naria 10, Eomer 11, Lommy 12, Loki, Roa 27)

Lommy – 4 (Gurthang 3, Kath 14, Celuien 20, Firefoot 21)

SpM – 2 (Jenny 8, Alcarillo 13)
Oddwen – 2 (Cailin 6, Glirdan 18)

Eomer – 1 (Lhuna 2)
Nilp – 1 (Eonwe 5)
Kath – 1 (Morm 9)
Alcarillo - 1 (Spm 22)
Lhuna -1 (Spawn 26)

EDIT: As I say it later on the thread, this is a wrong one being here: I mishappily edited this one as I should have quoted it. Not the first time I've done that. *shame*

[Kitanna]

Well, there certainly is a lot to look over and unfortunately I will never get through a thorough reading before voting is closed. I've looked over Nogrod, Lommy, and Loki's posts since those three have the most votes thus far.
I hate bandwagoning, but time constrictions of this day have made it very hard for me to keep up with everything that has gone on, so I'm going to go with the person I voiced suspcions of early today.

++ Loki
As I said earlier today his first few posts gave me an uneasy feeling.

I am, obviously, the best pick(And, being newest to the forums) and least suspicious of the group. Chances are good that I would not have been considered to be anything evil and wrong... just yet

That comment is really what has me worried the most. I just feel like he's trying to lead us to completely believe that since he is new there is no why he's the one we're looking for.

cross-posted with Valier

[Nogrod]

Just an update on the votes so far...

Loki – 8 (Diamond 4, Caran 7, Fea 15, Nogrod 17, Lalaith 19, Valier 23, Kitanna 24, Zali 25)

Nogrod – 6 (Nilp 1, Naria 10, Eomer 11, Lommy 12, Loki, Roa 27)

Lommy – 4 (Gurthang 3, Kath 14, Celuien 20, Firefoot 21)

SpM – 2 (Jenny 8, Alcarillo 13)
Oddwen – 2 (Cailin 6, Glirdan 18)

Eomer – 1 (Lhuna 2)
Nilp – 1 (Eonwe 5)
Kath – 1 (Morm 9)
Alcarillo - 1 (Spm 22)
Lhuna -1 (Spawn 26)

Sorry: I edited this same tally to my earlier post too... Well, these happen,

[littlemanpoet]

And that's all for toDay, folks. Voting is now over. Any votes that appear after this one will NOT be counted.

Stay tuned for a narration of Day One's many and varied activities, discussions ... oh, and a lynching.

EDIT: I should add this:

Evil Wizard: pick a player to curse.
Good Wizard: pick a player to scry.
Werewolves: nominate a player to kill.

[Nogrod]

After my last one, I think I have to update the vote...

Nilp --> Nogrod
Lhuna --> Eomer
Gurthang --> Thinlomien
Diamond --> Loki
Eonwe --> Nilp
Cailin --> Oddwen
Morm --> Kath
Naria --> Nogrod
Thinlomien --> Nogrod
Alcarillo --> Spm

Making a tally of:
Nogrod 3
others 1 / each (Eomer, Thinlomien, Loki, Nilp, Oddwen, Kath, Spm)

Great!

[Nogrod]

I don't know how to handle this, but Lommy voted for me twice. Should these both votes be counted?

She seems to be very happy to get rid of me - as is Eomer - coming out of the bush and happily voting for me with no good reasons. If you kill me tonight, look very carefully to those two...

I'll be around for awhile, looking for the culprits... maybe we have some chances to find out the ones?
*just so sad - but trying anyways*

[JennyHallu]

You missed me, Nogrod. I have also voted for SPM...now I am really off...toodles, everyone...(come on, Fufu)

[Kath]

Right, I'm going to have to go now which means a vote.

++LOMMY

She is far too eager to kill off Nogrod, with very shoddy reasoning. The double vote isn't suspicious, her computer was probably playing up, but her glee at the idea of bumping Nogrod off is. Plus, he isn't even her real suspect!

[Celuien]

Actually, my tally is different:
1. Nilp --> Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
2. Lhuna --> Eomer (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1)
3. Gurthang --> Lommy (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1)
4. Diamond --> Loki (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1)
5. Eonwe --> Nilp (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1, Nilp 1)
6. Cailín --> Oddwen (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1)
7. Caran --> Loki (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1)
8. Jenny --> SPM (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1)
9. Morm --> Kath (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
10. Naria --> Nogrod (Nogrod 2, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
11. Eomer --> Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
12. Lommy --> Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
13. Alcarillo --> SPM (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)

Can someone recheck? I'm falling behind on my analysis and might have to limit it even more than I already am, if I manage to finish at all...

[Nogrod]

You may be right Celuien. Just have to check that one... I'm not calling my version the right one. Let's see it.

[Nogrod]

The important part of this is here:

Nogrod 4
Loki 2
SPM 2
Lommy 2
Eomer, , Nilp, Oddwen, Kath 1

EDIT: updated with Kath's vote

[Celuien]

Okay, thanks.

By the way, my gut feeling is that Nogrod is innocent. Analysis to follow...

EDIT: Crossed with Nogrod and Kath.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++LOKI

Because I have two conflicting opinions and I don't like either of them.

Either he's a newbie and is going to get himself hurt or he's too smart for his own good and is manipulating us. That and I've got nobody better to attack right now.

[Loki]

My apologies of the late-ish post, but I've been quite busy all day. Breezed through the posts real quick, much suprised by everyone's reactions. Mostly that no one had considered that, in fact, I was telling the truth. No one had considered that my defensiveness is a matter of a far more personal nature, and I came into the game dead-set of simply playing to my personality. No one considered that I was operating solely on instinct.

Honestly, I'm doing my best by my best guess. Nogrod was quite anxious to see me gone, as was Diamond. Those are my two best approximations of everything. There's more data, but I am of little time at the computer. I'll post a more thorough report later, so look for it.

++Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Well, I had no time to act before Loki made his move...

Just look closely what he is doing the next days. That's a really a nice pick from the EW, and Loki - and I must admit, you play well... nastily, but effectively.

++ Loki


After my vote...

Nogrod 5
Loki 4
SPM 2
Lommy 2
Eomer, , Nilp, Oddwen, Kath 1

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loki

Honestly, I'm doing my best by my best guess. Nogrod was quite anxious to see me gone, as was Diamond. Those are my two best approximations of everything. There's more data, but I am of little time at the computer. I'll post a more thorough report later, so look for it.

How convenient...

[Roa_Aoife]

Hello, everyone! I finally made it. Alright, I've only managed a quick skim, and I'd like to make a comment concerning Loki.

Loki seems to be a fairly competent person. Perhaps he is new to werewolf, and doesn't fully understand why defending himself was suspicious, but he's intelligent- that much is obvious. As a wolf he would know not to point out that he would be picked. I think those thatsuspect him highly under estimate his competence.

Not only that, but people seem to have missed one ibvious factor of the EW's choices. The EW would want to pick people who wouldn't be likely choicces of the GW. This way, he/she/it keeps the werewolf count high, and avoids being discovered longer. For these reasons, I think Loki's claim is a likely one.

Now, I have to go back through and read everything else, but I'll return afterwards with my vote.

[Lalaith]

Goodness me. Five whole pages. I've had a day of the most tiresome and entirely unfrivolous chores, and now this. What a village.

I find the thought of having had such numerous attentions in the Night as master Eomer suggests, quite delightful. But alas, my night passed in a most boring, uneventful way.
But here's one thing I would do if I were Evil Wizard - something that hasn't occurred, it seems, to any of you.

Day One, usually, is a nightmare to live through but it is useful in retrospect, to analyse voting patterns. Not so this time - as the wolves have no more idea of anything than the rest of us.
The only person who knows who the wolves are, is the EW. S/he is therefore the only person to leave a voting trail. So what better, on the first night, than to create cannon fodder?
I mean, create a wolf for no other reason than to play a vital role in getting him lynched, and thereby devolve suspicion from yourself. Maybe not today, but soon.
Oh, and if I were GW, I would be looking, on the first night, not to find the EW but to clone myself - that is, to get myself a Seer.
So I think that the changed wolf was someone who would also make a good Seer. S/he is also someone who is currently innocent - would the EW curse them again tomorrow for safety's sake?

I will now go back to read the no doubt umpteen crossposts that have been made while I was writing this, and then go back and vote.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

The other thing is that, with the exception of the couple of individuals that the GW scries, s/he is not actually going to know a whole lot more about the status of individual players than the rest of the innocents, which makes me a little leary of just letting the GW lead the charge.

You are 100% right that the GW, at first, won't know much more than a common villager. The advantage to him coming forward soon isn't that he'll know who to lynch- it's that he'll know who not to lynch.

He can put forward two or three safe candidates and allow the village to debate about which one to lynch. The following day, he can reuse one of the previous day's candidates and run a second candidate against him. If the GW gave us too large a lynch list or used too many different people, the Wolves and EW would soon be able to figure out who the gifteds were, which is a bad thing. Because of that, the GW would keep the lynch list very short and not throw on too many different names. Of course, that would pretty much guarantee that the EW would not curse someone from the lynch list, but at the same time the GW won't be scrying them either, making it slightly more likely that he'd scry the same villager as the EW.

Originally Posted by Naria

The lorebook doesn't have much information(for me) about the phantom so I can't really say how he normally acts, but I find his decisive and firm belief in how the EW and the GW are/would play to be rather disturbing.

That's what I'm always like, Naria. I put myself in the shoes of whoever I'm trying to predict, figure out what the most logical course of action for them is, and then I say it (and I often say it quite decisively).

As you can imagine, the ones who fool me the most are those who don't play the percentages and don't behave logically. However, doing things like that often gets them killed, so really I don't mind my opponents fooling me because they are usually killed for their disregard for rational playing techniques.

Originally Posted by Naria

I'm not saying that I don't agree with his points(I do)

Glad to hear it.

Originally Posted by Naria

but how can someone be so sure

Because.

Originally Posted by Celuien

which is why I wonder if the EW would risk exposure by openly defending a transformed villagers

Who knows? There's no need to take a risk when the EW can just create another wolf at night, but then again- if the EW makes a strong defense of a wolf and then it is found out that the person was indeed a wolf through lynching, many people might think- "Um, I don't think the EW would've been defending that wolf so heavily, it's not worth the risk, therefore so-and-so probably isn't the EW."

Originally Posted by Caran

Knowing the identity of the GW will also help the EW's team. They'll scour the GW's posts for clues as to the identities of the gifteds

I don't think so.

Only a fool of a Good Wizard would allow his posts to point to his gifteds. As I said earlier, the strategy of the revealed GW would not be to defend the known innocent, but to lynch the known wolves (or, at the worst, lynch innocents that he doesn't know are innocents).

The GW would put forward his lynch candidates, and any member of the village who tried really hard to put forth someone of their own choosing would get a response from the GW such as "That person isn't on my list. Shut up."

Attacking people not on the GW's approved lynch list is the same thing as an attempt to get the GW to defend someone, thus revealing to the EW and the Wolves a gifted villager.

Now, that isn't to say everyone can't give their suspicions. Naturally, the GW and Seer will read what everyone has to say and take all opinions into consideration for the nightly scry/dream, but being allowed to state opinions and refusing the leadership of the GW are two completely different things.

The GW and his gifteds are our salvation. Once he is revealed, it will be in our best interest not to argue with him or his lists, because he knows more than a common villager. Should we give our opinions? Certainly! He will use them in helping him decide which individuals to scry and move onto the lynch list, but we shouldn't demand that he change his list or anything. Disobeying him might lead to the accidental discovery of gifteds.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Day One, usually, is a nightmare to live through but it is useful in retrospect, to analyse voting patterns. Not so this time - as the wolves have no more idea of anything than the rest of us.
The only person who knows who the wolves are, is the EW. S/he is therefore the only person to leave a voting trail. So what better, on the first night, than to create cannon fodder?
I mean, create a wolf for no other reason than to play a vital role in getting him lynched, and thereby devolve suspicion from yourself. Maybe not today, but soon.
Oh, and if I were GW, I would be looking, on the first night, not to find the EW but to clone myself - that is, to get myself a Seer.
So I think that the changed wolf was someone who would also make a good Seer.

Very good stuff, Lalaith.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Okay, some thoughts.

I can see an innocent Lhuna saying those things that she said toDay. I can also see a wolvish Lhuna acting that way, but I need to take a look at other Villagers, too, before I decide anything.

About Nogrod, I haven't had the chance to get to know him well so I have to trust other people's word on this which I hate doing since I can't know if they're on the Evil side or not. However, I, too, had the impression that he's usually more vocal and in the center of events. If he's been busy as he says, it explains quite a lot, though.

Sauce, for one, isn't acting like I would have expected. It's mostly just a feeling, but it's a bad feeling, mind you. I've heard that he has a habit of looking things from different angles, but he seems surprisingly confident that his theory about the possible EW is right. Still, he makes some points that I agree with, and my consolation is that I believe that once we get our Seer, they'll find out his true nature.

Loki seems to be in calmer mood than earlier and I find that kind of soothing although that's what any Wolf would do under suspicion.

I predict that I'm cross-posting with about everyone in this Village, and I'll continue gathering my thoughts after I've read all those replies.