Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[littlemanpoet]

Good point. I shall fix the Day Two narration. My fault.

[Celuien]

You cruel monsters! You've taken one I loved more dear than my own life. Hear me now - at the moment you struck your blow to my husband, you earned my undying wrath, and I will never rest until justice is done, or death takes me!

But why my poor, harmless Saucy? I know his mind was feared, for he was a man of great intellect. But why now, so soon after the curse fell, and after he came under suspicion yesterday? There are others equally to be feared by the wolves in this village. He might have had something right yesterday - too right for his own good. I'll go back to look over his last words and see if I can learn anything.

Justice!

[Celuien]

SPM:
63: Pointed out that the EW was unlikely to select likely Seer dream candidates or likely lynching targets. Doubted Loki was chosen by the EW. Provided this list of possible EW picks:

1 of Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien or Celuien
1 of Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, or Alcarillo
1 of Roa, Firefoot, Diamond or Gurthang

Wanted to unearth the EW.

64: Initial suspicion of Gurthang for bringing up searching for the wizard because he included both the EW and GW in his plan. Suggests that the GW should remain hidden, was therefore wary of Lhuna for suggesting that the GW should declare.

114: Said that the EW almost certainly has experience with werewolves, doubts that anyone likely to be scryed of dreamed of early is the EW. Finds it unlikely that any “big names” were selected night one due to risk of dream/lynching and there is plenty of time to recruit from the “big names.” Says Loki is disregarded as a wolf because he is a likely day 1 lynch. Says that Azaelia, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Diamond or Gurthang are the most likely to have been chosen by the EW since they are the ones from his prior list least likely to have been chosen by the GW as gifteds.

117: Wants to avoid deliberately outing the GW, replies to Jenny about his opinions of Loki. Doesn’t want to vote for Oddwen as he feels her non-vote makes her too conspicuous to be a likely move for a wolf.

193: Vote for Alcarillo because he would have been one of SPM’s picks if he had been the EW.

If I operate under the assumption that SPM was killed for getting something right, this looks bad for Azaelia, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Diamond or Gurthang. I wonder, though, if Alcarillo would have agreed to the wolvish plan of attack on Saucy as it’s a little too risky a position to put him in since he voted for SPM yesterday as well as being voted for by SPM.

Back later…

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Celuien

If I operate under the assumption that SPM was killed for getting something right, this looks bad for Azaelia, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Diamond or Gurthang. I wonder, though, if Alcarillo would have agreed to the wolvish plan of attack on Saucy as it’s a little too risky a position to put him in since he voted for SPM yesterday as well as being voted for by SPM.

Thanks for the review -- I'd just finished going through everything and writing up my long post, so I had a little inward groan at the thought of going back to make an overview of SpM's posts.

Now, as to your conclusion. This is possible -- but consider that not only Alcarillo has reason to be wary of killing SpM. Everyone he mentions has reason. My lorebook (a bit singed but otherwise none the worse for wear) notes that often people are killed to divert suspicion onto those they were erroneously pointing fingers at. In fact, an ancestor of mine was killed for a somewhat simliar reason, prior to her death she pointed fingers at three people in particular, none of whom turned out guilty.

Of coures, due to this we now have the opportunity for double bluffing. I.E. "People will think it would be too bold for the wolves on this list to kill him, so let's kill him."

*considers chucking lorebooks again, abstains this time*

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Now, as to your conclusion. This is possible -- but consider that not only Alcarillo has reason to be wary of killing SpM. Everyone he mentions has reason. My lorebook (a bit singed but otherwise none the worse for wear) notes that often people are killed to divert suspicion onto those they were erroneously pointing fingers at. In fact, an ancestor of mine was killed for a somewhat simliar reason, prior to her death she pointed fingers at three people in particular, none of whom turned out guilty.

Of coures, due to this we now have the opportunity for double bluffing. I.E. "People will think it would be too bold for the wolves on this list to kill him, so let's kill him."

Point taken. My werewolf lorebooks speak of an ancestor of mine, however, who once discounted a villager's guilt for the reason that the nighttime kill would have brought too much suspicion upon that villager. She was wrong. The villager did turn out to be lupine. Bluff and double bluff can be very effective.

I haven't looked over my late husband's suspects yet. Honestly, there were so many that the thought of analysing all of them is painful. But my intuition says that you, Cailin and Gurthang are innocent. The others I'm unsure of. I fear I'm going to have to trudge off and take a closer look at everyone.

Now I don't mean to sound accusatory, but is it possible that this father in-law could possilby have taken the life of his son in-law? I mean, he never liked SpM, so how do we know that he didn't go after SpM out of pure spite?

I don't know, Glirdy. While my father often said he'd like to kill my poor husband, I don't think there's much evidence for his being a wolf. Of course, there isn't much evidence of anything from yesterday. How like a politician. But I'd rather that we didn't start throwing random accusations at him for his personal dislike of my marriage. I'd prefer not to lose any more of my family for the present.

EDIT: Crossed with Nogrod and Glirdan

[Glirdan]

I don't know, Glirdy. While my father often said he'd like to kill my poor husband, I don't think there's much evidence for his being a wolf. Of course, there isn't much evidence of anything from yesterday. How like a politician. But I'd rather that we didn't start throwing random accusations at him for his personal dislike of my marriage. I'd prefer not to lose any more of my family for the present.

Like I said, I didn't want to sound accusatory but we must look at all possible options.

Btw, crossposted in my other post with those above me

[Alcarillo]

It looks like I have some defending to do.

If I were a wolf (which I'm not), and I killed the Saucepan Man, what good would that do me? If people said "Oh, it's too risky, Alc would never do it" and my fiendish plot succeeded, there'd be no guaranteeing I'd be thought of as innocent for long when anybody can be turned into a wolf any night. And then there'd be the risk of people saying "Alc's double bluffing. He's a wolf! ++Alc!". And then I'd be dead as a door-nail. I could either gain temporary innocence or die really quick. Why would I risk it when I can just lay low and survive far longer?

Whatever people would say, there'd certainly be plenty of discussion about me. Why on earth would I want this attention?! You people know my ancestors' methods of survival: laying low, keeping quiet. This doesn't fit with me killing Saucie. I'm not a werewolf, and if I were, I wouldn't be as dumb as killing Saucie.

And besides, Saucie always had a beer at hand whenever I returned to port, and he was most understanding of my son's courtship with Kitanna, having had a rocky time with in-laws himself.

[Glirdan]

Tis a sad day in this village, a very sad day for we have lost not only our bartender, but one of those whose aid we really could have used. My condolences go out to all of his family.

Oh, and poor SpM. My condolences to his family. Though I’m sure Morm is doing a little jig.(Diamond)

Now I don't mean to sound accusatory, but is it possible that this father in-law could possilby have taken the life of his son in-law? I mean, he never liked SpM, so how do we know that he didn't go after SpM out of pure spite?

Or not. You can’t know that for sure. The EW might make some wild moves to keep away from the scent of those looking for logic.(Diamond)

And this is a reason why I'm hesitant to cast suspicion upon morm for it could very well be that the EW chose SpM because he's dangerous and smart.

At the risk of sounding too eager to agree with tp all the time, I have to say I was thinking this, too. I figured, if Loki was picked by both Wizards the first Night like he said, one of the Wizards might be the friend who invited him to join our village -- because despite the possibilities expressed, I personally think him an odd choice for the Wizards, logically speaking. So, I feel that if he was indeed picked, it was not entirely logical on the part of one Wizard, hence friendship could be involved. That’s the only reason I could think of for concealing that matter. If this “friend” had aspirations to be a Wizard, they wouldn’t want people having a chance of making this connection. But since I was making the connection, I really wanted to figure out who that friend might be, and I decided on either Roa or Gurthang, the only two who seemed to feel the need to defend Loki’s behavior before and after the event of Elempi’s murder.(Diamond)

You know, this theory isn't as far fetched as it sounds. This could possibly be true. I'm pretty sure, however, that my mother has no connection to this "Loki" character. Nowhere in my lorebooks does it say that these two have any connection. But we can't be to certain of this. Mother, are you hiding something from us?

I'm afraid to say that I shall be going on a little trip for two days or so (that would be the next [possible] four days in RL) so I will not be able to contirbute much and I will also have to make a rather early vote for toDay. Mother, Father, I'm sorry about the short notice of this but I've actually been planning it for about a week now. I need to get away to think. Please don't worry. Lommy, don't worry about me, I'll be fine. Don't forget that your brother will always be there for you. Cara, please take good care of our family.

I will be back with a vote tally from yesterDay and compare it to that list which Celuien has just put up.

[littlemanpoet]

If you have not noticed it, please do take note of an italicized edit to the Day Two Begins post above. I apologize for my forgetfulness and any resulting confusion.

[Glirdan]

1. Nilp --> Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
2. Lhuna --> Eomer (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1)
3. Gurthang --> Lommy (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1)
4. Diamond --> Loki (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1)
5. Eonwe --> Nilp (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1, Nilp 1)
6. Cailín --> Oddwen (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1)
7. Caran --> Loki (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1)
8. Jenny --> SPM (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1)
9. Morm --> Kath (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
10. Naria --> Nogrod (Nogrod 2, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
11. Eomer --> Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
12. Lommy --> Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
13. Alcarillo --> SPM (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)
14. Kath --> Lommy (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)
15. Fea --> Loki (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 3, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)
16. Loki --> Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)
17. Nogrod --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 4, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)
18. Glirdan --> Oddwen (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 4, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1)
19. Lalaith --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 5, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1)
20. Celuien --> Lommy (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 3, Loki 4, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1)
21. Firefoot --> Lommy (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 4, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1)
22. SPM --> Alcarillo (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 4, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1)
23. Valier --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 6, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1)
24. Kitanna --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 7, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1)
25. Azaelia --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 8, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1)
26. Spawn --> Lhuna (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 8, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1, Lhuna 1)
27. Roa --> Nogrod (Nogrod 6, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 8, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1, Lhuna 1)
28. tp ---> Roa ( Nogrod 6, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 8, Nilp 1, Oddwen 2, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillor 1, Lhuna 1)

Those who voted SpM are - Jenny and Alcarillo.

Now, if we look at the list that Celuien has so kindly put up, her husband's list of possible EW choices on a Day was:

Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Celuien, Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Firefoot, Diamond and Gurthang.(SpM)

Then, he split them up into three groups which was:

1 of Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien or Celuien
1 of Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, or Alcarillo
1 of Roa, Firefoot, Diamond or Gurthang

Now, this looks, as Celuien said, bad for Alcarillo. However, I don't see it like that. The way I think of it, I find that this actually speaks in Alcarillo's favor. Why, if he voted for him the Day before, would he want to attack him at Night if he knew that it would put suspicion on him. And if he was one of the two Wolves, why would he sacrifice himself if there was only the two? Now, Alcarillo is a kiniving player but I don't see why he would be as bold as this.

Then there's Jenny who wasn't on that list of possible EW picks. Is it possible that she is one of the Wolves? The way I see it is that if she is a Wolf, after seeing that list, she thought "Hey! He doesn't think I have potential to be a possible EW candidate!" This could lead to one of two things: a) She was vindictive and decided to go after him out of pure spite. b) She took this opportunity to attack because it wouldn't leave any trails, especially if she used the excuse I gave above for Alcarillo:"I voted for him. Why would I attack him knowing that I would be looked at the next Day?"

Now, I'm not saying that either is a Wolf, but I'm not saying that they're out of my suspicions list. If anything, they have moved way up on my list. Now, you can look at that anyway you want. I'm going to go for a quick walk to clear my head. If you need me, call.

[Nogrod]

Celuien! I know how you feel! Losing someone dear to you is just so agonizing! Believe me, Me and Di (and our children) have felt it already. And I duly agree with you, that we should see about what he said yesterday. Anyhow: those are the most open clues we have so far to this catastrophy.

And this looks so grim, that I'm not sure I can trust anyone anymore. I'd hope to stick with my family (which I kind of do anyways - at least now in the early hours of the day), and by this loss on your family, I'd like to believe in your family as well. But we should be open to even the most grimacing events here, and be aware of everyone... even our own family members.

Then I see my wife has been kind of vocal here in the morning. And I must agree with her in many respects. *also trying to duck a battledore*

I'm sad that Loki had to go. I for myself tried to get him lynched yesterday, as I was myself being bandwaggoned and he was the second one in the line. And even as I know now his innocence, I stand by my vote and the reasons for it. They were believable, but wrong. This happens, sadly.

Concerning the EW. S/he would do well to enlist people who are not the primary targets / most vocal ones (as they are in most cases the first to be lynched). In this I accord with both Spm and my wife. But I would like to insist in the fact, that after one of the "reputation"-people would have gotten to be relied on, s/he would really want to pick that one as a wolf. We must remember, that the dynamics of this game are different from a basic WW-game. Not only are there ever more wolves day after day, but they also are hand-picked (not random). And the wizards are also hand-picked, and will not be either the obvious ones or just random (because one has had to apply for the job). I agree with my wife with the fact that we should not just overlook any students with their exams in here. All the people seem to have time to write here...

But we have a second downside here too. As the wolves (probably) don't know each other, we can't track their mutual posting! That struck me today. We are totally at loss with any wolf-scheming, if they do not know each other. In many games I've been in, we have had lots of material to speculate over, as we have thought about them as werecreatures making comments while knowing each other - and knowing the innocents. That has lead to a many a wolf's death, but now we probably don't have that chance (or then the EW is a stupid person).

So. No steady roles (one might be converted in the middle of the game), no wolf-talk in the game (as they can't do it)... That's looking bad, as I said this earlier in the discussion thread (agreeing with Loki here). We are really in trouble.

But heads up. We will fight. I'm going to sleep now, but will be back with you later on the day.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But we have a second downside here too. As the wolves (probably) don't know each other, we can't track their mutual posting! That struck me today. We are totally at loss with any wolf-scheming, if they do not know each other. In many games I've been in, we have had lots of material to speculate over, as we have thought about them as werecreatures making comments while knowing each other - and knowing the innocents. That has lead to a many a wolf's death, but now we probably don't have that chance (or then the EW is a stupid person).

I revert back to my first post. This is one of the main reasons we have to find a wizard, preferable of the Evil orientation.

But Nogrod is completely right. And more than that, I think that Saucepan's death tells us little. Well, it tells us that at least one wolf voted for him last Night, but it might have only been one. I'm thinking (meaning I don't know for sure), since there are only three wolves, that they all voted differently. And since that leaves only three possible kill choices, it is no surpise to me that Saucey would have been chosen out of three.

And, quite frankly, knowing for sure that one wolf voted initially for Saucepan* doesn't really help us. They could have had any reason for it. Although I would think that it was for his smartness. Which speaks ill ahead for those such as the phantom and morm and others.

I'm thinking that what we should look for is jumpiness concerning voting. Well, how about out of the ordinary jumpiness. I know a few who jump everytime they see their name in someone else's post.

I'm gonna go back and look at each person's reaction after each vote they received. Might take a little time.


*We're sure that one wolf voted for him, but we don't know if a second or third did. They could have. But we only know that one did for sure.