Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 05-15-2006, 03:01 AM

I agree with Alcarillo, and not just because he's never done anything wrong in his life before (I mean, just look at his wife and offspring — what a champion!)

He would not have wanted to kill SPM to get this unwanted attention. It would have been so much easier for him to lie low for many days yet. That's why Jenny is likely not a wolf either. Of course, either one could be the third wolf who was outvoted, but I'm pretty much dealing with chances and statistical probability here.

Now:

SPM's list of EW's wolf picks overlaps with mine quite a bit. He has: Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Celuien, Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia, Naria, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Firefoot, Diamond and Gurthang.

SPM made sure to let Oddwen off the hook because of her no-vote and how it would be conspicuous for a wolf to do that. Now he's dead. Significant?

Anyway, I let the following off the hook: Firefoot (because she's a likely Seer dream), Diamond (who will get herself lynched by being loud and troublesome

), Valier, Naria and Azaelia (the quiet, shady, lynchable types) Alcarillo (as stated above), and Cailín (simply because I would not see her lynched and I would die for her).

The more I think about it the more I realise that sweet Kitanna would be a brilliant pick from the EW.

But I'm not choosing her. And I'm not choosing Celuien either, poor woman, she'd never murder her husband — surely. So, if SPM was onto something (and let's be honest: if he was way off then the wolves would not have picked him) and that's why he lies dead, I would pick a lynching candidate from the following:

Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa or Gurthang. Two wolves in that lot!

Cailín · 05-15-2006, 03:04 AM

I have been thinking some more on possible wolves…

Both other lynching candidates yesterDay seem unlikely choices for the EW. Lommy's flip-flopping style is well known, which always makes her a suspicious character early on in the game and while Nogrod's intelligence is acknowledged by us all, his controversial tactics tend to get him in trouble. If I were the Evil Wizard, I would choose neither (sorry). And of course, after yesterDay's events, I would not choose any of those gathering many votes.

So who could be the wolves then?

I doubt that either Lhuna or Nilp are wizards - because of timezones and just general lack of time. However, in a large village such as this one, Lhunardawen would be a defendable original wolf choice. I'd stay away from Nilp, who is really too insane to be trusted, even after seeming sensible yesterDay.

Other original choices, and this list is similar to Saucy's, might include Firefoot, Lalaith, Gurthang, Caranlondien, Celuien, possibly Roa, Diamond or Kath. The first five are people who usually manage to stay alive for a pretty long time and often have a key part in victory either way. Diamond and Kath are less 'safe' options, but both can be dangerous wolves.

Also, though both Eomer and Phantom will disagree with me, I do think it is possible the EW might have turned one of those with a bad reputation, just for tradition's sake. I don't suppose it is the phantom - at least not from the start - but Eomer, Spawn or Feanor I would not so easily disregard. However, I consider those mentioned above to be the wiser and more obvious choices.

After yesterDay, I should think the EW would have chosen someone inconspicuous last Night. Numbers, not the composition of the team, are probably most important to him at the moment. Someone like Kitanna perhaps? Or one of those who firmly established their innocence yesterDay? At least not someone from Eomer's list of possibilities, especially if we may assume that those are indeed the people the EW first considered.

Much depends, however, on who the Evil Wizard is. We all approach the game in a different matter. While some people may use cold, hard logic in their choices of minions, others may be driven by feelings of friendship and family.

And as for who the wizards might be, I have made a list of possibilities but that I shall keep to myself for a while. It is not really helpful and I think we will all more or less come to the same conclusions in that respect anyway. That does not mean I am not still looking for the source of all these monsters.

Celuien · 05-15-2006, 04:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim...and let's be honest: if he was [I

way[/I] off then the wolves would not have picked him...

Exactly! There are many, many villagers to be feared for their skills if innocent. Short list - you, tp, Fea, Caran, Morm, and many others. So I think that he must have been on to something that the foul beasts did not want him to pursue further to tip the balance to choosing him instead of, say (activates spinning ale bottle), the phantom. Remember - SPM did earn two votes yesterday, and if the wolves wanted him dead, they might have tried to build off the suspicion that earned him those votes yesterday and had us do their dirty work while they hid, laughed, and watched.

I don't discount that this death could have been a random pick from the prominent villagers, or that he might have been killed just because he was so greatly to be feared as an innocent. And I know that no secret discussions went on to strategize about his death. But, though I don't know how the mechanics of last night's voting worked, I do know that he managed to catch attention from one of the wolves or he wouldn't have died.

Much has happened since I went away. I've only skimmed it so far, and will have to take a closer look.

Incidentally, I will be keeping the Salty Seal open for business. I think that the SPM would have wanted it that way.

Back later...

Nogrod · 05-15-2006, 05:32 AM

We surely talk here... (it took me almost an hour to just update myself with everything written after I left)

I'm going to go back and see a couple of things about yesterday too. But before that just a few thoughts about the wizards & the wolves.

The wizards are the clue of this game. Thence lmp must have been pretty thoughtful when picking them. He would not have chosen people who'd be raising suspicions. It would increase the possibility of either one being revealed and the game changing into a normal WW-game just too soon. He would really like to see, how the wizards actually play.

The EW's initial picks as wolves probably follow the same lines of thought as lmp's wizard choice. Three silent, under-radar types would serve the EW best in the beginning: giving them a working-peace to do her/his bidding in the chaotic rushing around the loudmouths of the first couple of days (just look at the voting stats: most votes for Loki, myself, Lommy and even Spm - not the silent ones...). That's why I'm still quite unsure about Loki being the double choice (his newbieness would be the only reason to pick him, I suppose).

But the third one from last night is a different choice. It would be intelligent from the EW to have taken now someone with a higher profile - as we probably should start to look for the more silent ones... But that one should also be one that hasn't roused suspicion - or at least not too much, or too serious.

And why Spm last night? I would go for them just eliminating a good player out from the game. If Spm was up to something real, it might have been too risky to go after him. But then again, if there was something, the wolves might have been afraid that there could be more the next day? Must see to that too.

05-15-2006, 03:01 AM	#1
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	I agree with Alcarillo, and not just because he's never done anything wrong in his life before (I mean, just look at his wife and offspring — what a champion!) He would not have wanted to kill SPM to get this unwanted attention. It would have been so much easier for him to lie low for many days yet. That's why Jenny is likely not a wolf either. Of course, either one could be the third wolf who was outvoted, but I'm pretty much dealing with chances and statistical probability here. Now: SPM's list of EW's wolf picks overlaps with mine quite a bit. He has: Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Celuien, Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia, Naria, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Firefoot, Diamond and Gurthang. SPM made sure to let Oddwen off the hook because of her no-vote and how it would be conspicuous for a wolf to do that. Now he's dead. Significant? Anyway, I let the following off the hook: Firefoot (because she's a likely Seer dream), Diamond (who will get herself lynched by being loud and troublesome ), Valier, Naria and Azaelia (the quiet, shady, lynchable types) Alcarillo (as stated above), and Cailín (simply because I would not see her lynched and I would die for her). The more I think about it the more I realise that sweet Kitanna would be a brilliant pick from the EW. But I'm not choosing her. And I'm not choosing Celuien either, poor woman, she'd never murder her husband — surely. So, if SPM was onto something (and let's be honest: if he was way off then the wolves would not have picked him) and that's why he lies dead, I would pick a lynching candidate from the following: Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa or Gurthang. Two wolves in that lot! __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

05-15-2006, 03:04 AM	#2
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	I have been thinking some more on possible wolves… Both other lynching candidates yesterDay seem unlikely choices for the EW. Lommy's flip-flopping style is well known, which always makes her a suspicious character early on in the game and while Nogrod's intelligence is acknowledged by us all, his controversial tactics tend to get him in trouble. If I were the Evil Wizard, I would choose neither (sorry). And of course, after yesterDay's events, I would not choose any of those gathering many votes. So who could be the wolves then? I doubt that either Lhuna or Nilp are wizards - because of timezones and just general lack of time. However, in a large village such as this one, Lhunardawen would be a defendable original wolf choice. I'd stay away from Nilp, who is really too insane to be trusted, even after seeming sensible yesterDay. Other original choices, and this list is similar to Saucy's, might include Firefoot, Lalaith, Gurthang, Caranlondien, Celuien, possibly Roa, Diamond or Kath. The first five are people who usually manage to stay alive for a pretty long time and often have a key part in victory either way. Diamond and Kath are less 'safe' options, but both can be dangerous wolves. Also, though both Eomer and Phantom will disagree with me, I do think it is possible the EW might have turned one of those with a bad reputation, just for tradition's sake. I don't suppose it is the phantom - at least not from the start - but Eomer, Spawn or Feanor I would not so easily disregard. However, I consider those mentioned above to be the wiser and more obvious choices. After yesterDay, I should think the EW would have chosen someone inconspicuous last Night. Numbers, not the composition of the team, are probably most important to him at the moment. Someone like Kitanna perhaps? Or one of those who firmly established their innocence yesterDay? At least not someone from Eomer's list of possibilities, especially if we may assume that those are indeed the people the EW first considered. Much depends, however, on who the Evil Wizard is. We all approach the game in a different matter. While some people may use cold, hard logic in their choices of minions, others may be driven by feelings of friendship and family. And as for who the wizards might be, I have made a list of possibilities but that I shall keep to myself for a while. It is not really helpful and I think we will all more or less come to the same conclusions in that respect anyway. That does not mean I am not still looking for the source of all these monsters. Last edited by Cailín; 05-15-2006 at 03:05 AM. Reason: cross-posted with Eomer

05-15-2006, 05:32 AM	#4
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	We surely talk here... (it took me almost an hour to just update myself with everything written after I left) I'm going to go back and see a couple of things about yesterday too. But before that just a few thoughts about the wizards & the wolves. The wizards are the clue of this game. Thence lmp must have been pretty thoughtful when picking them. He would not have chosen people who'd be raising suspicions. It would increase the possibility of either one being revealed and the game changing into a normal WW-game just too soon. He would really like to see, how the wizards actually play. The EW's initial picks as wolves probably follow the same lines of thought as lmp's wizard choice. Three silent, under-radar types would serve the EW best in the beginning: giving them a working-peace to do her/his bidding in the chaotic rushing around the loudmouths of the first couple of days (just look at the voting stats: most votes for Loki, myself, Lommy and even Spm - not the silent ones...). That's why I'm still quite unsure about Loki being the double choice (his newbieness would be the only reason to pick him, I suppose). But the third one from last night is a different choice. It would be intelligent from the EW to have taken now someone with a higher profile - as we probably should start to look for the more silent ones... But that one should also be one that hasn't roused suspicion - or at least not too much, or too serious. And why Spm last night? I would go for them just eliminating a good player out from the game. If Spm was up to something real, it might have been too risky to go after him. But then again, if there was something, the wolves might have been afraid that there could be more the next day? Must see to that too. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...