Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Caranlondien]

Whew, finally caught up.

First, I now believe Loki's story. Despite the sarcastic personality, Loki was proven innocent at the end, and I see no reason for lies. No one else has come forward as the true former wolf.

ToDay I am beginning to suspect my little sister Lommy. I agree with Mormegil's thoughts:

Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal and helpful but hasn't really given much by actual suspicion. She gives a lot of wide sweeping statments that cover a lot of people. Behavior that I would find consistent with lycanthropy.

However, I tend to suspect Nogrod even more than Lommy. He's tried to explain his suspicious behavior yesterday as done in order to survive Day 1. But that sounds like a wolvish cover-up to me. His change in behavior toDay also looks wolvish. Nogrod is my top suspect right now.

I'm unsure about Lalaith, and I guess I ought to go back over her posts (So much talking... ) But before she became a topic of discussion, I hadn't found her particularly suspicious-looking.

Finally, I don't personally find Oddwen that odd (a misnomer!). That is, I don't think her behavior would be that likely from a wolf. She gave little reasoning for her early vote, and I think if she were a wolf, she'd know better than to do that.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Roa and Diamond

[Lalaith]

Roa, Cara: perhaps the reason the changed wolf didn't come forward is that s/he didn't want to die. Because as a known innocent, s/he would have been a prime candidate for eating in the night.
And no, it's not me.

Which brings me to my Saucie theory, which I wanted to wait on a while. It's more unlikely than the cannon-fodder one so I will stress it's only a theory - but maybe he was the changed wolf. And that's why he was killed. Of course, it would depend on how much the EW is allowed to guide his wolves.

[Thinlómien]

I feel the village is dividing into two camps. I predict that there will be a battle for votes between Nogrod and Lalaith today. Oddwen and I may receive votes as well. If I had to choose between Nog and Lal, I'd vote Nogrod. Lalaith feels quite innocent to me.

Most people think Nogrod might be a wolf. I think he could even be the Evil Wizard.

Kath, I agree my plan has faults. I think it could be used as a general guideline. Or at least I'm using it as such. If there's a person I'm pretty sure that she's a wolf, I will of course vote her rather than a random EW suspect.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Roa, you speak much sense to me regarding Nogrod. And, because the wolves do not know each other and wouldn't make such damning accusations (probably) against a genuinely suspicious character, I think it speaks in your favour.

I think I will be voting for him again. Oh, and Lommy, my vote from nowhere? Um...yeah, it was pretty much a random Day One vote. I could have voted for pretty much anyone. It wasn't as if I was railing against Fea and then changed my vote to Nogrod out of nowhere!

It kinda goes against my earlier theory of SPM being correct, but....whatever.

F....f....fe.... ahem. It's you, right? Just a guess.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

but it's possible the pick was extremely careful and strategic, in which case I want to watch for people doing certain things today, because there are certain things someone does if they make a kill for a certain reason.

Well, in going over the posts, I'm not seeing much of the behavior I had my eyes open for, so I'm guessing Sauce's murder has simple reasoning behind it.

A couple of reasons to kill Sauce-
1) My willingness to trust him (not just mine, but the village in general). More than one person yesterday suggested that Sauce would not make a good wolf (especially early), and that was very true. So why let someone live who is intelligent, innocent, and likely to be trusted?
2) With all the talk about Sauce being a likely Seer dream, perhaps the Wolves (or EW) was hoping to render the Seer's Night 2 dream worthless. You see, if the Seer had dreamed of Sauce on Night 2 and then the Wolves killed him, there might as well have been no dream at all. If that was the motivation behind the killing, I was probably a candidate as well. Unless, of course, the EW wants to make me a Wolf late- after the Seer has dreamed of me. Just in case that is his strategy, I would like to suggest to the Seer that you wait to dream of me for a good while. You don't want me to become a Wolf after I'm trusted! Now, naturally if I'm turned into a Wolf I will regret giving this advice because my loyalty will then be to the EW and his cause, but for now (and I hope, until death) my loyalty is to the village and the GW.

GW, if you really want to find out about me early on (in case I'm the EW, which I hope you see as unlikely) and you also want to keep tabs on me until death (in case the EW tries to turn me), I suppose you could make me your Hunter. That way, if I'm cursed you'll know, plus the curse wouldn't create a Phantom-wolf, it would only create a Phantom-ungifted. But only do that if you have a Wolf target to give me. I don't want to be responsible for accidentally killing the Seer with my Hunter gift.

Also, only do that if you don't mind losing a gifted. I doubt the EW and Wolves plan on allowing me to live more than a couple days.

Originally Posted by My mom

After yesterDay, I should think the EW would have chosen someone inconspicuous last Night. Numbers, not the composition of the team, are probably most important to him at the moment.

I agree. Later on, if he survives that long, the EW will round out his pack by selecting some louder, lynchable sorts, but probably not right now.

Originally Posted by Lal

perhaps the reason the changed wolf didn't come forward is that s/he didn't want to die. Because as a known innocent, s/he would have been a prime candidate for eating in the night.
And no, it's not me.

Which brings me to my Saucie theory, which I wanted to wait on a while. It's more unlikely than the cannon-fodder one so I will stress it's only a theory - but maybe he was the changed wolf. And that's why he was killed.

That was one idea that I had. I agree that it's unlikely, but it's still a good thought.

All right. Here's a list of a few suspects. It's not random, but at the same time you shouldn't put much faith in it. The only way any of us are going to get more than one or two things right at this point is by luck.

GW: Roa or Eomer
EW: Nilp or Firefoot
Wolves: Diamond, Kitanna, Celuien, or Glirdan
Seer: like I'd tell
Totally Innocent: morm, Gurthang, Spawn

Oh, and one more thing. If some people continue to be super quiet (3 posts or less per day, and not saying much) I think we should just lynch them. They could be a hiding EW or Wolf. Worst case scenario, they are an unhelpful innocent who gives us nothing to base suspicions on. Those sorts should be slain.

Later on today, I'll provide some helpful information for the GW and future gifteds.

[Caranlondien]

I'm going back and forth on my main suspects - Nogrod or Lommy? With both of them, my main reason for suspicion is a gut feeling that something is off. I also think we should consider The Phantom's plan about lynching the quiet people; normally I'm opposed to such things, but in such a large village, I can see the necessity. However, for toDay I think I'll be voting for either Nogrod or Lommy.

Roa and Sleepy are going to be so mad if I vote for my little sister...

1. Nilp --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. Celuien --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 1)
3. Oddwen --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 2)
4. Diamond --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1)
5. Feanor --> Roa (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1)
6. Sleepy --> Feanor (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
7. Lommy --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 2, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
8. Roa --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 3, Roa 1, Feanor 1)

[Lalaith]

As far as Loki was concerned, for what it's worth, I think he was someone who liked attention.
That was why I thought he might possibly be someone who had been wolfed under my cannon-fodder theory, because the EW would know it was likely he would do something that would make it easy to get lynched.

I still, now that we know he was innocent when he died, think he was someone who liked attention, and I don't think he was the unwolfed wolf. It would be way too risky for the GW to have had him as a Seer, he had no form, and seemed, in the prelim chat, unclear even as to what WW entailed (confusing it with RP).
If I'm wrong, I offer posthumous apologies.

[Thinlómien]

Nogrod just called me and asked me to come here and tell that his internet access is not working at the moment but he's trying to fix it. He might not be able to get online toDay.

Bye.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nogrod just called me and asked me to come here and tell that his internet access is not working at the moment but he's trying to fix it. He might not be able to get online toDay.

Bye.

Thanks Lommy! Even though this was a short-lived message. (I had tried to get online almost an hour before I called her - and then, naturally, managed to do it in the next ten minutes... )

I see things are moving on again. But I have to see to them first.

Really Roa, you seem to be quite happy about promoting my lynch... *ahem*, I think I have heard you blame someone else for a monomaniac lynch-thrive very lately... And really, as I said before, you should give me at least some credit for not being a total idiot - to which your earlier accusations heavily grounded.

I'll see to them - and to all these other things too.

[mormegil]

I'm currently at post 281 and trying to read as fast as my poor little eyeballs will let me but reading the suspicion of Nogrod it seems to strike true to me and I have little doubt that he is a wolf. I forget if it was Roa or who that posted his post summary but something else I gleaned from it is that shortly after there was a suspcion raised of him because of his relative silence he began posting again with renewed vigor, yet he posted little and gave recaps of voting; which to me seems an attempt to artificially inflate his post count thus giving us the appearance of saying a lot but not really sayin much at all. Plus it was him that truly incited Loki and not the other way around. Loki died because of this and I don't think it was Loki that was being rude but simply abrasive in his defense.

I'm not certain if I will be able to get back...I will make my best attempt but to ensure that I get my vote in today.

++Nogrod

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Phantom

Oh, and one more thing. If some people continue to be super quiet (3 posts or less per day, and not saying much) I think we should just lynch them. They could be a hiding EW or Wolf. Worst case scenario, they are an unhelpful innocent who gives us nothing to base suspicions on. Those sorts should be slain

I for one completely disagree with this! I am a quiet villager, so are some of the others, but this does not make me unhelpful! I find this game in particular hard to keep up with, but according to my lorebooks my ancestors were always reserved in posting, but almost always made good choices when it came to wolf catching....in fact I find here *points to lorebook* that one of my ancestors actually won an award for being a Werewolf slayer I do however hate it when people only come on once during the Day and post and vote and that is it...coughcoughNilpcoughcough This is unhelpful, but posting three posts daily is not necissarily odd for some players...
I find it annoying when people keep posting over and over with absolutely nothing of any value being said...
I for one usual don't say much, and am not so good at figuring out how or why I suspect someone, but it ususal turns out for the better, so please do not lynch people just because they don't post enough for your liking

[Kath]

phantom please don't try to lynch those who don't post all that often. I make few posts but try to get my feelings and ideas across in those. Just because I speak less than you doesn't mean my ideas are less valid and I should be lynched. Posting once a day just to vote with no reasoning would be a sound reason for lynching though.

Now, somewhere around here there was a list, aha:
GW: Roa or Eomer
EW: Nilp or Firefoot
Wolves: Diamond, Kitanna, Celuien, or Glirdan
Seer: like I'd tell
Totally Innocent: morm, Gurthang, Spawn

I can see where you're coming from on the Nilp front. He didn't vote for himself and has been helpful, which generally means he is something other than an ordo. But why do you assume he is the EW and not the GW?

As for the others on that list I have no idea. Except that morm is of course guilty

And I wanted to ask. Why was it decided that the GW should not reveal sooner rather than later? I realise I could go back and look, but there's so much to read through it would likely be quicker if someone just told me!

[Kitanna]

Celuien=
Gurthang has been relatively quiet, which makes me uneasy, but what he has said doesn't strike me as wolvish. Besides, he agrees with the phantom about the wizards, which seems to be a good thing.

Unless of course Gurthang is trying to latch on to the idea to appear innocent. But I doubt Gurthang is guilty of wizardry or wolvery. At least yesterday I was convinced of his innocence mainly because he put forth the EW and GW idea, which makes me think he was innocent yesterday and I still feel he's most likely an innocent today, but he bears some watching.

Roa=
This statement has me wondering- you admit to bandwagoning, but you give an odd reason for it. You were certainly throwing suspicion on Loki from your first post. And your reasons were terrible. I'd have to say that you were the driving force behind Loki's lynching, not after you were on the kill list, but from the very beginning.

Nogrod admitted that part of the reason he voted for Loki was because he was trying to save his own skin (he did say that earlier didn't he? or am I just making up posts?) Which makes sense, I'm sure many others in this village would have done the same in that situation. But Nogrod also went after Loki from the very beginning and the two continued their arguement until Loki was lynched.

Roa=

Nice blanket statement- certainly throws suspicion off you almost immediately.

This is the same type of statement that made me suspect Loki yesterday. So, this brings Nogrod high up on my suspect list, but since I was so horribly wrong about Loki I am now worried about making any sort of move against Nogrod today.

Oddwen=
++LALAITH

Because she never really loved me! And for a few things that Spawn pointed out, and a few little hunches of my own.

?? She misses the vote yesterday and now out of the blue and with reasons grabbed from spawn she votes for Lalaith.

Morm=
Alcarillo: was extremely defensive without much suspicion cast on him. It seems as if he almost didn't vote to kill SpM last night but was over ruled by his comrades and now is anxious to exonerate himself first thing.

An excellent observation, but I still lean more to Alcarillo being an innocent at this point. Though if his overly defense behavior continues into tomorrow I will have to change my stance on him.

Morm=
Nogrod: Different behavior, a bit less rash and more cautious.

A lot can happen in one night in a village with wizards.

Roa=
Naturally, a wolf learning the identity of a former teammate and an obvious innocent would act as quickly as possible to throw doubt on him, which is exactly what Nogrod did.

So, if Loki was speaking truth and was the one turned back to the path of light, it is reaonable to think Nogrod would want to see him dead. Even if Loki was lying Nogrod's response to him would also work. If Nogrod is the other wolf he would have believed Loki's claim (knowing his cohort was no longer a wolf) and believed he was the changed one. And he plots revenge and as soon as he has a chance Nogrod throws suspicion on Loki and plants the seeds of doubt in the village heads.

Roa=
He also seems quite eager to have us believe that the wizards wouldn't pick someone who was loud, but would rather pick under the radar type players.

I have never been a fan of this logic and it irks me so much when a players say something like "Well, I'm too loud and wreckless to be a wolf" and that is what Nogrod is doing. He names himself and a few other players who could not possibly be wolves at this point in time.

Sleepy=
And anywho, past experiences tell me never trust a Fea... Now then, unfortunately I haven't been able to read through the entire thread (Evil, evil, evil illness! and also random distractions) but anyway since I don't think I'll be able to get anything reasonable formed before the deadline (or rather my bed-time) -

++Feanor

*sigh* The votes of Oddwen and Sleepy make me suspect them quite a bit. (Oddwen more than Sleepy at this point) Both missed the vote yesterday and their random votes today just look like ways to cover themselves from their mishaps yesterday. Obviously no one wants to miss the vote two days in a row, but the lack of reason irks me.

Alright I find Nogrod and Oddwen the two top suspects. Though I am weary of casting a vote for either at the moment. But unless something amazing happens in the next hour I will be voting for one of them.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by phantom

Oh, and one more thing. If some people continue to be super quiet (3 posts or less per day, and not saying much) I think we should just lynch them.

Right now that would be about a third of the Village. Still, if there isn't a good EW / Wolf lynchee on some Day, getting rid of a silent Villager would at least clear things up.

Anyway, I'll vote for

++Oddwen

because I really didn't like the way she cast her vote toDay... yes, that's the main reason. Also, I could come up with theories like how Sauce was killed because he thought Oddwen on Day 1 innocent, and she tried to make us believe that she'd never kill someone who's stood up for her. She's posted only four times with very little substance, so my vote may be considered as a "lynch the non-contributing people" vote, too, if you want to.

Good Night, make wise decisions!