Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Valier, what did you think the whole issue with Loki was about then?

I'm not sure about Nogrod. He might be the EW or Wolf, you say? You make some good points, but the reason alone that he has changed his behaviour isn't very convincing. Wolves might change the way they act while they try to figure out how they could look the most innocent, but a Wolf or not, if someone is about to get lynched because of the way he acts, sure it's quite a natural thing to start acting differently then. I'm intrigued to find out if Nogrod really is a baddie, but I won't make my voting decision yet (although I have to make it soon).

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Spawn, you misunderstood me. Three wolves were picked by the EW. One would be, in my theory, "cannon fodder". This would NOT be the same wolf that was changed back.

Ah, now it makes more sense! I still rather disagree with your theory, but it's not so relevant here.

[Roa_Aoife]

Spawn, if you'll go back a page, you'll see my analysis of Nogrod, and it gives more reasons for suspicion than a change in behavior.

Okay, okay, I'm going back to work now.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Spawn, if you'll go back a page, you'll see my analysis of Nogrod, and it gives more reasons for suspicion than a change in behavior.

I've read it, and it was an interesting one. I've understood that it's rather your habit to suspect Nogrod and vice versa, so I'm not sure how unbiased it is, though, and if you're a baddie, sure you would make up a case for old times sake starting from scratch? No offense, of course.

I haven't really suspected you, and I'll go rereading your post. My vote, whomever it may be for, will follow after that.

[Nogrod]

As I am again leading the tally, I guess I will be allowed some defence.

I'll start with this:

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

= referring to Roa's analysis on me
I've read it, and it was an interesting one. I've understood that it's rather your habit to suspect Nogrod and vice versa, so I'm not sure how unbiased it is, though, and if you're a baddie, sure you would make up a case for old times sake starting from scratch? No offense, of course.

It seems, that one of Roa's main point is, that I have intentionally tried to do everything possible - from the first minutes of the game onwards - to lynch Loki.
1) That would be the most stupid wolf-tactics I can imagine. Just pure madness. I'm not an idiot Roa, and thence am a bit offenced by your theorizing.
2) I think that accusation fits you even better than me, as you really have been on me from your first visit here onwards (in this game). And quite happily, almost everyone have forgotten, that you were gathering some suspicion before you really ran rampant on me.

= Roa
Then, Nogrod makes a point of suspecting the people who voted for him- one very wolfish tactic, to be sure.

Not so. I tried to say, that the people who had voted for me had no good reasons behind their votes and so were ill-informed (or random = Eomer). I never said or meant, they were wolvish votes!

He also seems quite eager to have us believe that the wizards wouldn't pick someone who was loud, but would rather pick under the radar type players. He expresses this point three times in 4 posts. It seems quite clearly an attempt to throw suspicion away from him.

It is just trying to note the obvious and important thing about this game's dynamics! That's the way it goes. You'll see it, as the game continues. No wise EW would recruit loudmouths to her/his wolves in the beginning: with 30-villagers two or three quiet ones slip every radar. It's just more secure to the EW, to pile up more wolves that way. Just look at the DAY1 voting tally, who are there but those who speak a lot and arouse feelings? So who were safe? (Two or three I said? Yes, s/he could do well to add one experienced and skilful wolf to the team, just in case the wizard battle comes true before the EW is ready for it) I'm not sad about the fact, that this will make me look innocent. But that's only the "my side of the coin".

Also, Day 1 saw very little of Nogrod's usual theorizing and discussion, and while he had quite a few posts, they were of little substance.

Somewhat true, but I had no time to it. I only came home late and was too tired - and had drunk too many beers during the day to be more than in for just first day banter (the early day, game time - late night on my RL).

= Morm
I forget if it was Roa or who that posted his post summary but something else I gleaned from it is that shortly after there was a suspcion raised of him because of his relative silence he began posting again with renewed vigor, yet he posted little and gave recaps of voting; which to me seems an attempt to artificially inflate his post count thus giving us the appearance of saying a lot but not really sayin much at all.

Mostly we post as we have time. You know it Morm. The recap issue I find odd also (it's noted by Roa too). And as Roa already noted, I tend to do a lot of them, as I want to see where we are going (I'm going to make one after this just to see, where we are now).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(I'm going to make one after this just to see, where we are now).

Well, why bother...

Thanks Caran!

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Kath

phantom please don't try to lynch those who don't post all that often. I make few posts but try to get my feelings and ideas across in those.

I never said I wanted to lynch those who don't post all that often.

I said I wanted to lynch those who-
1) Don't post much.
2) Don't say much.

If you indeed get your "feelings and ideas across" in the posts you make, then you don't fit #2, therefore you wouldn't make my lynch list.

Originally Posted by Kath

And I wanted to ask. Why was it decided that the GW should not reveal sooner rather than later?

That was not decided. I never agreed to that.

Personally, I don't think there is a high probability that the GW waiting to reveal will yield rewards for the village. Not getting a Seer Night 1 may have pushed the reveal back a day, but I can't possibly see the GW waiting longer than Day 4 to show himself. I'd like to see him tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Kath

But why do you assume he (Nilp) is the EW and not the GW?

Because Nilp is evil.

Originally Posted by Valier

Doesn't the GW learn the EW's identity when they come forward?

No.

Originally Posted by Valier

Do they have to challenge each other right away?

No.

Originally Posted by Valier

I think the GW should remain hidden as long as possible.

In other words, for as long as possible you want us know-nothing villagers to run around lynching people without the guidance of a knowledgeable, invincible, for-sure-trusted-good-guy?

Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

In other words, for as long as possible you want us know-nothing villagers to run around lynching people without the guidance of a knowledgeable, invincible, for-sure-trusted-good-guy?

Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

This raises an important question about the rules. If the EW call for a battle between the wizards, will that take place immediately - or "at the sunset" or something?

So has the good wizard time to announce her/his knowledge before the battle takes place and s/he dies? The EW has been granted at least the possibility of the wolves learning each others identity. It would be fair, that the villagers could also learn what the GW knew before the battle - and the death... (not revealing openly the gifteds, of course, but any other useful information s/he has by then?)

[Firefoot]

Okay, I've finally finished reading through everything that's happened while I've been gone, and am still trying to figure out my thoughts. My biggest impression, though, is that I'm not quite sure where all the votes for Nogrod are coming from, as he seems mostly innocent (or at least no more suspicious than most of you) to me, and if he is a wolf, I'd say he behaved extremely stupidly yesterDay.

The second thing I want to say right now is that I'm sorry if I am seeming unusually quiet. I've been feeling rather sick and extremely tired since about Friday morning, and any kind of thinking pretty much has not appealed to me (and a game this big is requiring a lot of thinking...). So if I'm quiet, that's why. I am reading and following along, and I'm not going to be voting on whims. I'll see if I can't put something more interesting/substantial soon.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

My biggest impression, though, is that I'm not quite sure where all the votes for Nogrod are coming from, as he seems mostly innocent (or at least no more suspicious than most of you) to me, and if he is a wolf, I'd say he behaved extremely stupidly yesterDay.

I'm seconding you here - as you might guess.

But really. I'm quite astonished by this too.

I will spend my time now on Oddwen (Kitanna made a good point on her that kind of brought her back to my list of suspicions, from where I had already kind of thrown her out) and Roa, at least. Try to have time for some others too, but time seems to be running...

[the phantom]

Well, I have to leave now.

A couple last minute things.

GW- Prepare a code to teach your gifteds. If I'm remembering the rules correctly you can communicate with them. When you see the end approaching and there is little chance of one of your gifteds ending up on the other side as a Werewolf, give a code to your gifteds that will allow the Seer to broadcast the results of his/her dreams to the other gifteds after you are gone.

A simplified example-
If the Seer dreams someone innocent, in a sentence talking about the person, the word that follows the person's name will begin with the letters A-J, and at least one other word in the sentence will start with the same first letter as the person's name.

If the Seer dreams someone guilty, in a sentence talking about the person, the word that follows the person's name will begin with the letters K-S, and there will be at least one word in the sentence having to do with weather or color.

You get the idea.

Teach those gifteds how to continue being a team even after your death.

As for my vote... hmmm....

+ + Nilp

[mormegil]

Post 298

Originally Posted by the phantom

GW, if you really want to find out about me early on (in case I'm the EW, which I hope you see as unlikely) and you also want to keep tabs on me until death (in case the EW tries to turn me), I suppose you could make me your Hunter. That way, if I'm cursed you'll know, plus the curse wouldn't create a Phantom-wolf, it would only create a Phantom-ungifted. But only do that if you have a Wolf target to give me. I don't want to be responsible for accidentally killing the Seer with my Hunter gift.

Also, only do that if you don't mind losing a gifted. I doubt the EW and Wolves plan on allowing me to live more than a couple days.

It stuck out to me because it was such a great plan and I agreed with it and furthered my belief in the phantom's innocence.