Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Spawn, if you'll go back a page, you'll see my analysis of Nogrod, and it gives more reasons for suspicion than a change in behavior.

I've read it, and it was an interesting one. I've understood that it's rather your habit to suspect Nogrod and vice versa, so I'm not sure how unbiased it is, though, and if you're a baddie, sure you would make up a case for old times sake starting from scratch? No offense, of course.

I haven't really suspected you, and I'll go rereading your post. My vote, whomever it may be for, will follow after that.

[Nogrod]

As I am again leading the tally, I guess I will be allowed some defence.

I'll start with this:

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

= referring to Roa's analysis on me
I've read it, and it was an interesting one. I've understood that it's rather your habit to suspect Nogrod and vice versa, so I'm not sure how unbiased it is, though, and if you're a baddie, sure you would make up a case for old times sake starting from scratch? No offense, of course.

It seems, that one of Roa's main point is, that I have intentionally tried to do everything possible - from the first minutes of the game onwards - to lynch Loki.
1) That would be the most stupid wolf-tactics I can imagine. Just pure madness. I'm not an idiot Roa, and thence am a bit offenced by your theorizing.
2) I think that accusation fits you even better than me, as you really have been on me from your first visit here onwards (in this game). And quite happily, almost everyone have forgotten, that you were gathering some suspicion before you really ran rampant on me.

= Roa
Then, Nogrod makes a point of suspecting the people who voted for him- one very wolfish tactic, to be sure.

Not so. I tried to say, that the people who had voted for me had no good reasons behind their votes and so were ill-informed (or random = Eomer). I never said or meant, they were wolvish votes!

He also seems quite eager to have us believe that the wizards wouldn't pick someone who was loud, but would rather pick under the radar type players. He expresses this point three times in 4 posts. It seems quite clearly an attempt to throw suspicion away from him.

It is just trying to note the obvious and important thing about this game's dynamics! That's the way it goes. You'll see it, as the game continues. No wise EW would recruit loudmouths to her/his wolves in the beginning: with 30-villagers two or three quiet ones slip every radar. It's just more secure to the EW, to pile up more wolves that way. Just look at the DAY1 voting tally, who are there but those who speak a lot and arouse feelings? So who were safe? (Two or three I said? Yes, s/he could do well to add one experienced and skilful wolf to the team, just in case the wizard battle comes true before the EW is ready for it) I'm not sad about the fact, that this will make me look innocent. But that's only the "my side of the coin".

Also, Day 1 saw very little of Nogrod's usual theorizing and discussion, and while he had quite a few posts, they were of little substance.

Somewhat true, but I had no time to it. I only came home late and was too tired - and had drunk too many beers during the day to be more than in for just first day banter (the early day, game time - late night on my RL).

= Morm
I forget if it was Roa or who that posted his post summary but something else I gleaned from it is that shortly after there was a suspcion raised of him because of his relative silence he began posting again with renewed vigor, yet he posted little and gave recaps of voting; which to me seems an attempt to artificially inflate his post count thus giving us the appearance of saying a lot but not really sayin much at all.

Mostly we post as we have time. You know it Morm. The recap issue I find odd also (it's noted by Roa too). And as Roa already noted, I tend to do a lot of them, as I want to see where we are going (I'm going to make one after this just to see, where we are now).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(I'm going to make one after this just to see, where we are now).

Well, why bother...

Thanks Caran!

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Kath

phantom please don't try to lynch those who don't post all that often. I make few posts but try to get my feelings and ideas across in those.

I never said I wanted to lynch those who don't post all that often.

I said I wanted to lynch those who-
1) Don't post much.
2) Don't say much.

If you indeed get your "feelings and ideas across" in the posts you make, then you don't fit #2, therefore you wouldn't make my lynch list.

Originally Posted by Kath

And I wanted to ask. Why was it decided that the GW should not reveal sooner rather than later?

That was not decided. I never agreed to that.

Personally, I don't think there is a high probability that the GW waiting to reveal will yield rewards for the village. Not getting a Seer Night 1 may have pushed the reveal back a day, but I can't possibly see the GW waiting longer than Day 4 to show himself. I'd like to see him tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Kath

But why do you assume he (Nilp) is the EW and not the GW?

Because Nilp is evil.

Originally Posted by Valier

Doesn't the GW learn the EW's identity when they come forward?

No.

Originally Posted by Valier

Do they have to challenge each other right away?

No.

Originally Posted by Valier

I think the GW should remain hidden as long as possible.

In other words, for as long as possible you want us know-nothing villagers to run around lynching people without the guidance of a knowledgeable, invincible, for-sure-trusted-good-guy?

Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

In other words, for as long as possible you want us know-nothing villagers to run around lynching people without the guidance of a knowledgeable, invincible, for-sure-trusted-good-guy?

Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

This raises an important question about the rules. If the EW call for a battle between the wizards, will that take place immediately - or "at the sunset" or something?

So has the good wizard time to announce her/his knowledge before the battle takes place and s/he dies? The EW has been granted at least the possibility of the wolves learning each others identity. It would be fair, that the villagers could also learn what the GW knew before the battle - and the death... (not revealing openly the gifteds, of course, but any other useful information s/he has by then?)

[Firefoot]

Okay, I've finally finished reading through everything that's happened while I've been gone, and am still trying to figure out my thoughts. My biggest impression, though, is that I'm not quite sure where all the votes for Nogrod are coming from, as he seems mostly innocent (or at least no more suspicious than most of you) to me, and if he is a wolf, I'd say he behaved extremely stupidly yesterDay.

The second thing I want to say right now is that I'm sorry if I am seeming unusually quiet. I've been feeling rather sick and extremely tired since about Friday morning, and any kind of thinking pretty much has not appealed to me (and a game this big is requiring a lot of thinking...). So if I'm quiet, that's why. I am reading and following along, and I'm not going to be voting on whims. I'll see if I can't put something more interesting/substantial soon.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

My biggest impression, though, is that I'm not quite sure where all the votes for Nogrod are coming from, as he seems mostly innocent (or at least no more suspicious than most of you) to me, and if he is a wolf, I'd say he behaved extremely stupidly yesterDay.

I'm seconding you here - as you might guess.

But really. I'm quite astonished by this too.

I will spend my time now on Oddwen (Kitanna made a good point on her that kind of brought her back to my list of suspicions, from where I had already kind of thrown her out) and Roa, at least. Try to have time for some others too, but time seems to be running...

[Roa_Aoife]

Checking in from work, and I see that this needed answering.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It seems, that one of Roa's main point is, that I have intentionally tried to do everything possible - from the first minutes of the game onwards - to lynch Loki.
1) That would be the most stupid wolf-tactics I can imagine. Just pure madness. I'm not an idiot Roa, and thence am a bit offenced by your theorizing.
2) I think that accusation fits you even better than me, as you really have been on me from your first visit here onwards (in this game). And quite happily, almost everyone have forgotten, that you were gathering some suspicion before you really ran rampant on me.

The difference between what I did and what you did, Nogrod, is that I came in late and had plenty of posts from which to draw information. You started in on Loki in the SECOND POST OF THE DAY. There is a world of difference in that. And never once did I call you stupid or foolish, nor do I think the tactic to be so. It was actually a very good move, and you got most of the village to follow you. It was also a very bold move, and a risky one at that. Niether are things that I would put past you. You've always been a bold one Nogrod.

Not so. I tried to say, that the people who had voted for me had no good reasons behind their votes and so were ill-informed (or random = Eomer). I never said or meant, they were wolvish votes!

Even so, you made a point of discrediting the people who suspected you, and that is the same in my book.

It is just trying to note the obvious and important thing about this game's dynamics! That's the way it goes. You'll see it, as the game continues. No wise EW would recruit loudmouths to her/his wolves in the beginning: with 30-villagers two or three quiet ones slip every radar. It's just more secure to the EW, to pile up more wolves that way. Just look at the DAY1 voting tally, who are there but those who speak a lot and arouse feelings? So who were safe? (Two or three I said? Yes, s/he could do well to add one experienced and skilful wolf to the team, just in case the wizard battle comes true before the EW is ready for it) I'm not sad about the fact, that this will make me look innocent. But that's only the "my side of the coin".

And again you wish to put aside the possibility that a loud player could be a choice for a wolf. Certainly, it seems suspicious to continually point out a theory that makes you look completely innocent. I'm not, however, suspecting you simply because you put forth this idea, I suspect you because you keep putting forward, over and over again.

Somewhat true, but I had no time to it. I only came home late and was too tired - and had drunk too many beers during the day to be more than in for just first day banter (the early day, game time - late night on my RL).

Ah, but I was refering to later in the Day. You still kept your posts short, and did very little more than restate what had already been said. Lots of posting, little substance. Always a bad recipe.

Mostly we post as we have time. You know it Morm. The recap issue I find odd also (it's noted by Roa too). And as Roa already noted, I tend to do a lot of them, as I want to see where we are going (I'm going to make one after this just to see, where we are now).

You say you had little time, but you had time to go back and do vote recaps? Those take time, especially in a game of 30 players. And while you may do many, you certainly never do that many. It looks too much like you trying to look active while adding nothing of significance to the village discussion. This is behavior that you would normally be on in an instant, but here you emulate it. You look more and more wolfish by the minute.

[the phantom]

Well, I have to leave now.

A couple last minute things.

GW- Prepare a code to teach your gifteds. If I'm remembering the rules correctly you can communicate with them. When you see the end approaching and there is little chance of one of your gifteds ending up on the other side as a Werewolf, give a code to your gifteds that will allow the Seer to broadcast the results of his/her dreams to the other gifteds after you are gone.

A simplified example-
If the Seer dreams someone innocent, in a sentence talking about the person, the word that follows the person's name will begin with the letters A-J, and at least one other word in the sentence will start with the same first letter as the person's name.

If the Seer dreams someone guilty, in a sentence talking about the person, the word that follows the person's name will begin with the letters K-S, and there will be at least one word in the sentence having to do with weather or color.

You get the idea.

Teach those gifteds how to continue being a team even after your death.

As for my vote... hmmm....

+ + Nilp

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm so proud of you, phantom.

I'm pretty much convinced Roa is innocent (just now) whatever Nogrod turns out to be. And that information at least should be discovered today.

++NOGROD

[Firefoot]

phantom's post about the gifteds speaking in code makes sense, and it's telling me that (toDay, anyway) phantom is innocent. If he were a wolf, he might think of that as being a good idea for the gifteds, but he would have absolutely no reason to post it. That would be directly aiding the other side, and phantom wouldn't do that.

[Kitanna]

++ Nogrod
Roa has brought very good points against him and I won't bore you by restating everyone now, but here are the reasons I have decided to pick Nogrod over Oddwen today.

1) His attack on Loki began early, suggesting Loki may have been speaking the truth about being changed from a wolf to an innocent and if that's true Nogrod's response to plant doubts about Loki early is reasonable.
2) His tactics seem to have changed today and he says he does that every game, but I don't recall past Nogrod's doing that. Maybe he speaks the truth or maybe he was an innocent yesterday and needed to change tactics.
3) He says the EW would refrain from picking someone like him because he is loud. That type of statement had me questioning Loki yesterday. Only for Loki it was why he would be picked not why he wouldn't be picked. Everytime someone uses that defense red flags go up all over my mind.
4) He restates the same thing often. Not a bad thing, but often times that is all he adds to the discussion and is giving us nothing new to look at. That doesn't seem like a very Nogrod thing to do, considering past Nogrod's have gotten angry with others for doing just that.

[Nogrod]

Well. Oddwen is kind of a hard one. So few posts and so many amazing things.

#44 Basic in-character stuff
#97 Says

:"referring to our 'lorebooks' isn't going to help us much, only confuse us"

, Says will not vote on DAY1!

#262 Points out that the wolves don't know each other - and would like to the wizards done away with...
#264 Votes Lalaith (mentioning in character stuff + Spawns points on her)

If someone would be a quiet wolf trying to stay in the shade, this would be the way it would be looking alike? Who would go on voting with these grounds if there were bigger rows around (especially Roa is making a good work on this, I admit)

So basically: unhelpful with four posts with very little to say. And when she says something, it's against our common good (not looking at the lorebooks, wizards done away with before we have the gifteds,...) And voting with very little reassoning on DAY2, in this kind of a talkative village!

I would say, that she looks suspicious.

I'll try to have some time with Roa now - and she clearly tries to twist my words again as to more likely defend myself against her than to see her own posting. She's intelligent, I know she is. And as she has spent all the time attacking me, there probably is very little substance of her own in the posts. A very wise wolf-tactics that as well. And with the arguments so far, she could always start tomorrow by apologizing, that she was wrong...

[Valier]

Votes so far...

1.Nilp-->Valier (Valier 1)
2.Celuien--> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 1)
3.Oddwen-->Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 2)
4.Diamond18-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1)
5.Feanor-->Roa_Aoife (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1)
6.Sleepy-->Feanor (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1 Roa 1, Fea 1)
7.Thinlomien-->Nogrod (valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 2, Roa 1, Fea 1)
8.Roa-Aoife-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 3, Roa 1, Fea 1)
9.Mormegil-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 4, Roa 1, Fea 1)
10.Dancing Spawn-->Oddwen (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 4, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1)
11.Kath-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 5, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1)
12.Caranlondien-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 6, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1)
13.Phantom-->Nilpaurion (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 6, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1, Nilp 1)
14.Eomer-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 7, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1, Nilp 1)
15.Kitanna-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 8, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1, Nilp 1)
16.Cailin-->Oddwen (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 8, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 2, Nilp 1)
17.Lalaith-->Oddwen (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 8, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 3, Nilp 1)
18.Nogrod-->Oddwen (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 8, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 4, Nilp 1)

[mormegil]

Post 298

Originally Posted by the phantom

GW, if you really want to find out about me early on (in case I'm the EW, which I hope you see as unlikely) and you also want to keep tabs on me until death (in case the EW tries to turn me), I suppose you could make me your Hunter. That way, if I'm cursed you'll know, plus the curse wouldn't create a Phantom-wolf, it would only create a Phantom-ungifted. But only do that if you have a Wolf target to give me. I don't want to be responsible for accidentally killing the Seer with my Hunter gift.

Also, only do that if you don't mind losing a gifted. I doubt the EW and Wolves plan on allowing me to live more than a couple days.

It stuck out to me because it was such a great plan and I agreed with it and furthered my belief in the phantom's innocence.

[Caranlondien]

Well, it's quite a blow to lose The Phantom, as he was definitely an asset. But at least he took a wolf with him, and between yesterDay's lynch and last night, I am, overall, heartened.

ToDay I'd like to look closely at Lommy; something still feels off about her.

Unfortunately, I have to go for a bit now, but I'll be back in a few hours to take a closer look at our new bunch of suspects.

[Celuien]

Morm - you have very interesting things say about Eomer. Those points are worth serious consideration, and I think I'll go read what I can about them.

But if you're right, particularly about Eomer being awfully accurate, what does that say about Lalaith? I believe he repeatedly mentioned her as a probable EW pick.

[Diamond18]

(note, this'll mostly be in character 'cause I have postively no time for anything else, more serious posting will follow later tonight)

This has been a tough few days for my family -- first my father slain, then, the worrying suspicions over my husband. I didn't like to think of it, but there was something different about him ever since the whisper of Wizards came to our village. When I gave him a good swat with a battledore there was something odd in his eyes. Not the usual submission and obedience I'm used to, no, more like he was thinking of a way to stand up and get back.

While the loss of my husband is a great blow, I must admit that I felt I lost him long ago, and this creature slain yesterday was no Nogrod. A Not-Nogrod, if you will. No I'm a widow... oh woe is me. It's all that Evil Wizard's fault -- he's the one who turned my sweet Noggie into a spawn of evil.

And my poor Zali. Her lover, dead. (My sorrow for his family as well.) At least she and they have the comfort of knowing he died a hero's death, valiantly ridding our village of yet another foul being. Believe me, I know when I say it's harder to lose your lover to evil than to a battle with evil. To think, my husband was one of the beasts that killed my father. The irony is truly, not lost on me.

Okay. That's it. My Zali is locked inside her room crying her eyes out, and I must go tend to her. I'll return later after my mothering duties are complete.

(Oh, and I'm not surprised they killed tp. The EW might have wanted to turn him at a later stage, but he was being far, far too eager to help the village and likely annoyed the EW too much. He made better Gifted material than Evil material, if you see what I mean. I have much more to say, but zilch time to say it in.)

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

*dries tears* Oh, Phantom, my love...You've had a hero's death, but I'll miss you...and our... walks down by the beach... *blows nose*

To lose first one's beloved grandfather, to find one's father a werewolf, and then to lose one's only love is no easy thing... Mother and I must stick together now, I feel.

[/in character melodrama]

Anyway...

I must say that Alcarillo is looking pretty darn suspicious to me. I was willing to believe his defensiveness yesterday as an honest innocent villager attempting to deal with suspicion, but now I'm not so sure. His post (which is in-character) contrasts sharply with, let's say Diamond's post just now. Both are in character, but I feel like Alcarillo's is much more the typical "I'm an evil beastie trying to make cover" than Diamond-mum's is.

For some reason, prolonged wailing on and on really hits a nerve in me, which I'm sure is not entirely reasonable. But there it is. At least Diamond's post didn't feel like it was lacking in substance. Alcarillo provides no explanation for this totally in character wailing.

X-posted with Firefoot and Morm, with whom I agree, upon a review--something is rotten in the state of Eomer.