Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Gurthang · 05-17-2006, 01:30 PM

Quick glance at Celuien, Zali, and Diamond.

Diamond:

#13 - Says she won't vote family Day 1, but later on will if necessary. This was followed by a list of everyone; most of them being 'accused'. She did say Nogrod would be evil and that Naria was inhuman, but I wouldn't give that a lot of weight, since she said the same about most of us.

#14 - Pokes at Loki and warns him about overreacting.

#25 - Defends Nogrod against Loki's rebutal. Again warns Loki about sportmanship.

#27 - Says post about everybody (#13) was just for prediction sake and hopes they don't come true. Talks to Alcarillo about children.

#28 - Gives possible reasons why Loki might have been the one scried by both wizards. Still doubts though.

#30 - Reverts Celuien's question about Loki to Nogrod. Says she thinks Nogrod might be acting strange and that she saw what she expected from Loki.

#35 - Responds to phantom's comment about flattery.

#39 - Looks forward to phantom's list of how wizards will act. Says she doesn't have any idea. Also says it's unlikely that we'd find the EW early, but if we did the wolves wouldn't stand a chance.

#43 - Thinks Naria's right with her response to phantom's "what do the wizards fear" question. Makes a joke for her own response.

#50 - Babbles about wizard behavior. Says EW won't be loud, but then again he might. Throws lorebooks into a fire.

#76 - Attacks (jokingly) Nilp for voting Nogrod. Marks that Nilp and morm have been quiet. Votes for Loki. Gives reasons.

Celuien:

#10 - Standard first post: Defends family, mildly accuses Eomer, doubts Loki's claim, and advises a clear head.

#19 - Quotes morm concerning Eomer. Agrees, but seems like mother-protecting-daughter reason. Spars at Diamond over family insult or something like that.

#29 - Says we should wait about Loki and that he is not unlike what she expected.

#61 - Remarks about Nilp not voting for himself.

#78 - Talks about GW revealing. Also mentions EW strategy and is reluctant to employ wizard spotting as it might flush out GW. Doesn't want to vote for any of the current candidates.

#142 - Gives reasons she will not vote for Loki. Doesn't think EW would risk discovery to defend wolves.

#145 - Thinks Nilp wouldn't be a wolf. Goes through post thinking about who EW would curse.

#164 - Voting list.

#169 - Says gut tells her Nogrod is innocent.

#181 - Analysis of Loki, Lommy, and Nogrod. Votes for Lommy for being a good EW pick and her sudden switch to vote for Loki.

#184 - Clarifies Day End time.

#186 - Responds to phantom about EW bluffing.

#201 - Voting Update.

#203 - Replies to a comment by the phantom and says she now knows he's not the EW.

#206 - Says goodbye to Loki. Comments that she doesn't think him a wolf.

Zali:

#104 - Warns against discounting anyone. Says Loki gets her on edge.

#196 - Agrees EW must be found. Votes Loki. Reasons include him being confusing and he worries her. Makes a point to say vote is not due to newbieness and that she has valid suspicion. Aplogizes for lack of participation.

That's only Day 1. Sorry, but I am tired of looking through all of it. After going through all of the first Day, I have nothing on Azaelia. Celuien is looking less suspicious also, mainly because she seemed to give good analysis and reasons for her vote.

Now, Diamond is something else. I think I may vote for her. One of the main reasons is that she seems to shift her view to fit what people say to her. Specifically I would point to #25 where she defends Nogrod against Loki, then when Celuien asks her something she turns to Nogrod with suspicion and says she saw what she expected from Loki. In the end she ended up voting for Loki. Also, she talks a lot, which is obvious and not necessarily bad, but a lot of it is role-playing and not as much constructive to the task at hand. I'm not too keen on that.

I don't want to waste my vote, though, so I'll only vote Diamond if there's still a chance to lynch her. Although, of the three candidates so far, I don't want to vote for Eomer or Azaelia. I'd have to do some research on Alcarillo to see what I think. I've got about an hour before I have to vote, so I'll see what happens.

Thinlómien · 05-17-2006, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gurthang, about Celuien

#181 - Analysis of Loki, Lommy, and Nogrod. Votes for Lommy for being a good EW pick and her sudden switch to vote for Loki.

I hope she really didn't say that for I never voted Loki...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valier

I just noticed, but on POST #267 on pg.7 The Phantom put an arrow in his post, was he the Hunter by then? and if so this is perfect for Roa, she would see this and kill him not thinking he would pick Naria to kill....wait did he pick her? She also wouldn't fret knowing she could make another wolf even if he did pick one to bring with him.....Hmmmmmm weird indeed!

Quote:

Also does anyone think NO TIME NOW in the Phantom's post could be an anagram? I don't know why he would put one in there, but you never know....and I have no idea how to solve those darn things!

I think your ideas are a bit far-fetched, Valier. Calm down.

He was a hunter already then.

Now I'm really going... Good night! (Or day or whatever you have there...)

Valier · 05-17-2006, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thin

I think your ideas are a bit far-fetched, Valier. Calm down.

He was a hunter already then.

I don't think they're far fetched...So the Phantom let everyone know that he was the Hunter then by posting the arrow and I don't think it far fetched that he very well may have put in an anagram. I think Naria or one of the other wolves picked up on that and voted to kill him.....but I am still not sure.....Phantom did not kill Naria though,

Quote:

Originally Posted by LMP

The evil team picked the phantom to kill. The good team picked the phantom to be the hunter. Werewolves trying to kill the hunter get killed. So the good team was really lucky.

Ok to me this sounds like Naria picked the Phantom to die last night...but was she the only wolf that voted for him? If so then it goes that she would be the one to die according to LMP's post. But why wouldn't the other wolves vote for Phantom if they saw the arrow? Did they, and Naria was the one chosen to die at random? Maybe she was the only one to see the hint.. I find odd though that the good team was really lucky.......why? because Naria was the only one to vote for him? AAAHHH I am confusing myself, but I see something here.....perhaps all the wolves voted differently and the EW chose to go with Naria's so the Hunter would be killed.Meaning the EW saw the arrow too...

This doesn't clarify much, I know, but I have almost convinced myself that Roa is the EW and if I be wrong this time may I shoot myself in the foot!! I sense it and I will come up with something concrete on her...I'll be back

JennyHallu · 05-17-2006, 01:59 PM

Val...one more time...

The phantom was not the Hunter until last night.

Valier · 05-17-2006, 02:02 PM

Ok Ok so what was up with the arrow? I find that odd for the Phantom to just put that in there....Oh well...I thought I had something...I still think I do on the EW choosing Naria's vote so the Hunter would be killed sacraficing a wolf, which I think they did.

Kath · 05-17-2006, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Ok Ok so what was up with the arrow?

To show that he was 'shooting off' perhaps? Since that post is all about him not having time to post at that moment.

Valier · 05-17-2006, 02:04 PM

crossposted ...

So No I think the EW chose to kill The Phantom, by choosing Naria's vote....I think if the wolf votes are spread out the EW gets the final say on who goes do they not?

Sleepy Ranger · 05-17-2006, 02:07 PM

First off my sincerest apologies for not being very active in this game but random things have kept popping up, bear in mind these have all been un-scheduled disturbances and come Saturday I should be rid of them all. Truly sorry for being a chore.

++Feanor

Possibly because of the previous day.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 05-17-2006, 02:10 PM

I have to go and I don't think I'll be back before the end of the day. Because I'm still interested in Roa and I don't have time to ascertain the extent to which any other suspicions of mine are accurate...

++ROA

Edit: crossed with Sleepy.

Kath · 05-17-2006, 02:01 PM

Valier, one question. Why would the wolves want to kill the Hunter? I don't think that works. For one thing, phantom only became the Hunter last Night, so all these 'clues' from phantom's posts mean nothing. No wolves would go after the Hunter unless they were sure he'd hunt an innocent. The Hunter is only of use when dead.

Celuien · 05-17-2006, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I hope she really didn't say that for I never voted Loki...

Never fear, Lommy. I'm not that off my rocker yet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Me, in the above cited post 181

...her sudden switch to voting for Nogrod...

Almost caught up...

Roa_Aoife · 05-17-2006, 03:05 PM

Valier- your record so far has been less than steller. First, you cast the vote that put Loki (an innocent) in the lead, then you decided the Nogrod wasn't a threat. My lorebook tells me that you are astoudingly off your game. Or perhaps your doing so purposfully. Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game.

Several points:

I don't understand all of the suspicion for Alcarillo. He had a reason to defend himself, as people were suspecting him, and SPM's death made him look quite bad. And while I don't particularly like incharacter posts at this stage of the game, I don't see it making him guilty.

As for Eomer, good points were made against him, but good points were also made by him. His behavior seems too obvious to me, but my lorebook only has one record of an Eomer in a pervious village, and that one didn't live past Day 1.

Zali did seem far too eager to jump on the Eomer bandwagon. However, this could have been due to time constraints forcing her to vote far too early to see any other viable suspect.

Firefoot is the one that really draws my attention. After her strong defense of Nogrod before, and her imediate jump to help morm collect evidence against Eomer, she's looking really bad.

I'm afraid I don't have enough time to do a more thorough analysis right now. I'm going to consider things a bit more and try to get a clearer picture before I vote.

Edit: Crossposted with last five posts

Valier · 05-17-2006, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa

Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game.

We shall see my dear Wizard...

Cailín · 05-17-2006, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valier

We shall see my dear Wizard...

Oh dear. I have never seen Valier this convinced of something. We might have another situation on our hands.

A Roa vs Valier situation, that is.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 05-17-2006, 03:17 PM

Cailín, you are so funny.

I have no idea who to vote for. I really hope Azaelia isn't the Seer as I think she won't be back tonight. I'm not the Seer but I'm not about to offer myself as a noble sacrifice yet.

Celuien · 05-17-2006, 03:24 PM

The deadline draws near, so there isn't time for my ususl elaborate analysis.

Roa:
174: Defends Loki. Says that the EW will pick unlikely GW choices.
200: Does not suspect Loki. Questions Nogrod’s motives in attacking Loki. Votes for Nogrod.
258: States Loki was believable because no one contradicted his claim and because of his timing. Says Nogrod was the one who caused confusion.
274/277: Analysis of Nogrod.
287: More explanation to Fea about Loki. Asks not to vote randomly.
295: Votes Nogrod for the second time.
324/336: Presses Nogrod about his attack on Loki, more explanation of why she finds him suspicious.
493: More about Loki to Fea. Wants to know what Valier is talking about with her theories. Agrees with morm about the narration thing. Wonders why Valier is so eager to be rid of her.
509: Says that Valier’s record is less than stellar. Doesn’t understand suspicion of Alcarillo.

I see nothing here to suggest to me that Roa is the EW. The cannon-fodder theory non-withstanding, I can't see the EW attacking Nogrod as strongly as Roa did very consistently for two days. While Nogrod was a perfect set-up, he also made a dangerous wolf, and losing him would have been a blow to the evil team.

My suspicion of Alcarillo does stem from what happened to the SPM, along with his overly in-character defensiveness. Granted, there's nothing wrong with talking about village affairs, but as both morm and my late husband pointed out, the wolves do not respect village relationships. Talking only about village happenings and connections to the diminishment of wolf-hunting debate is detrimental to finding the wolves and their foul master. And it gives a way to talk, look friendly, and hide in the open without leaving a trail.

I also agree that the narrations should not be taken as clues. That doesn't seem to be the style of our Great Seal.

And, again, the phantom was not the hunter until last night, so Valier's theories about him can't be right. And I'm puzzled by her attack on Roa, who really does not seem suspicious to me. I'll be keeping an eye on her. Two eyes, in fact, when I can spare them.

Firefoot · 05-17-2006, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Firefoot is the one that really draws my attention. After her strong defense of Nogrod before, and her imediate jump to help morm collect evidence against Eomer, she's looking really bad.

I'm almost surprised that no one else has commented on this. Not that I'm trying to make myself look bad, but I haven't really been trying to avoid it, either. I jump on theories that make sense and have some backing. Morm's theory did. I'm also pretty stubborn, which is why once I decided yesterDay that Nogrod was innocent, I stuck with it. Take it as you will.

But I'm really on the run right now, so although I had enough time to read through everything, I don't have any time to comment. I'm going to stick with my instinct and go with

++Eomer

Kitanna · 05-17-2006, 03:17 PM

Well I've given some thought to all that has happened and I came down to Eomer and Celuien as my top two suspects. Eomer for his cunning ability to double bluff and for Celuien's continued defense of phantom accusations of herself. In the end I simply flipped a coin to decide who to vote for.

++ Celuien

Though I defended her and Diamond to begin with when they brought themselves to everyone's attention, when Celuien continued it and regarded anyone looking at her as a "pointless arguement" I began to suspect her even more.

Oh crude, I need to run so I can't finish my reasoning. Sorry all.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 05-17-2006, 03:19 PM

Flipped a coin?!?! I'm beginning to think this relationship was a bad idea.

Roa_Aoife · 05-17-2006, 03:24 PM

I had completely missed the points about Celuien! I may have to reconsider voting for Firefoot.

And Cailin, there would be a situation if I took Valier's accusations seriously, but I don't. They don't hold water, so there's no point in me continuing to debate her over them. So don't worry.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 05-17-2006, 03:26 PM

I too will have a look at Celuien. I may follow my dear mother and my (apparently not-so-loving) beloved in today's voting. I don't actually feel comfortable voting for Azaelia because it's very easy to get caught up in bandwagons and I don't want to cast what would effectively be a grudge vote.

Back soon!

Celuien · 05-17-2006, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

"pointless arguement"

And I forgot to answer this, not that it makes any difference to your vote now. I consider it pointless in that my books of werewolf lore show that villages can be easily caught up in debating incorrect points to the exclusion of others. I absolutely do not want to be the subject of such a debate - all it does is divert attention from our real targets, the EW and its wolves.

And what would the point be? Other than distracting the village and getting a dead innocent if the debate did turn against me, it would accomplish nothing. So yes, pointless.

JennyHallu · 05-17-2006, 01:43 PM

Two and a half hours left and this has really been a fairly quiet village this afternoon. I find myself at something of a loss: No one looks particularly suspicious today, except perhaps for Fea, Zali (maybe), and Di (maybe)...I'm inclined to think the third day 1 wolf (I firmly believe Loki was telling the truth...) probably was someone from that fateful list of SPM's though...

I think the wolves worked like this:

Night 1:

Loki, Nogrod, ??A??

Night 2:

??B??

Night 3:

Naria

Night 2 and Night 3 may be switched, but I think Naria was innocent Night 1. I don't know if I think LMP would have merely chosen the most recent wolf to kill rather than use one of his ever-present dice. A d3, anyone?

I think A is a SPM list-member, or one from that basic category: intelligent, trusted, moderate. B I am completely unsure of. But this list does rather put the EW as someone rather brash: Roa, Fea, morm, Diamond...there are probably others capable of trying to pull off a Loki/Nogrod/??A?? combo...

Must think and vote later.

05-17-2006, 02:07 PM	#8
Sleepy Ranger Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: On the field, kissing the 'Downs crest Posts: 1,654	First off my sincerest apologies for not being very active in this game but random things have kept popping up, bear in mind these have all been un-scheduled disturbances and come Saturday I should be rid of them all. Truly sorry for being a chore. ++Feanor Possibly because of the previous day. __________________ And tonight we can truly say, together we're invincible... Middle-Earth Football World Cup 2007

05-17-2006, 02:10 PM	#9
Feanor of the Peredhil La Belle Dame sans Merci Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: perpetual uncertainty Posts: 5,517	I have to go and I don't think I'll be back before the end of the day. Because I'm still interested in Roa and I don't have time to ascertain the extent to which any other suspicions of mine are accurate... ++ROA Edit: crossed with Sleepy. __________________ peace

05-17-2006, 03:05 PM	#12
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Valier- your record so far has been less than steller. First, you cast the vote that put Loki (an innocent) in the lead, then you decided the Nogrod wasn't a threat. My lorebook tells me that you are astoudingly off your game. Or perhaps your doing so purposfully. Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game. Several points: I don't understand all of the suspicion for Alcarillo. He had a reason to defend himself, as people were suspecting him, and SPM's death made him look quite bad. And while I don't particularly like incharacter posts at this stage of the game, I don't see it making him guilty. As for Eomer, good points were made against him, but good points were also made by him. His behavior seems too obvious to me, but my lorebook only has one record of an Eomer in a pervious village, and that one didn't live past Day 1. Zali did seem far too eager to jump on the Eomer bandwagon. However, this could have been due to time constraints forcing her to vote far too early to see any other viable suspect. Firefoot is the one that really draws my attention. After her strong defense of Nogrod before, and her imediate jump to help morm collect evidence against Eomer, she's looking really bad. I'm afraid I don't have enough time to do a more thorough analysis right now. I'm going to consider things a bit more and try to get a clearer picture before I vote. Edit: Crossposted with last five posts __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen Last edited by Roa_Aoife; 05-17-2006 at 03:10 PM.

05-17-2006, 03:17 PM	#15
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Cailín, you are so funny. I have no idea who to vote for. I really hope Azaelia isn't the Seer as I think she won't be back tonight. I'm not the Seer but I'm not about to offer myself as a noble sacrifice yet. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

05-17-2006, 03:26 PM	#21
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	I too will have a look at Celuien. I may follow my dear mother and my (apparently not-so-loving) beloved in today's voting. I don't actually feel comfortable voting for Azaelia because it's very easy to get caught up in bandwagons and I don't want to cast what would effectively be a grudge vote. Back soon! __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

05-17-2006, 01:30 PM	#1
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	Quick glance at Celuien, Zali, and Diamond. Diamond: #13 - Says she won't vote family Day 1, but later on will if necessary. This was followed by a list of everyone; most of them being 'accused'. She did say Nogrod would be evil and that Naria was inhuman, but I wouldn't give that a lot of weight, since she said the same about most of us. #14 - Pokes at Loki and warns him about overreacting. #25 - Defends Nogrod against Loki's rebutal. Again warns Loki about sportmanship. #27 - Says post about everybody (#13) was just for prediction sake and hopes they don't come true. Talks to Alcarillo about children. #28 - Gives possible reasons why Loki might have been the one scried by both wizards. Still doubts though. #30 - Reverts Celuien's question about Loki to Nogrod. Says she thinks Nogrod might be acting strange and that she saw what she expected from Loki. #35 - Responds to phantom's comment about flattery. #39 - Looks forward to phantom's list of how wizards will act. Says she doesn't have any idea. Also says it's unlikely that we'd find the EW early, but if we did the wolves wouldn't stand a chance. #43 - Thinks Naria's right with her response to phantom's "what do the wizards fear" question. Makes a joke for her own response. #50 - Babbles about wizard behavior. Says EW won't be loud, but then again he might. Throws lorebooks into a fire. #76 - Attacks (jokingly) Nilp for voting Nogrod. Marks that Nilp and morm have been quiet. Votes for Loki. Gives reasons. Celuien: #10 - Standard first post: Defends family, mildly accuses Eomer, doubts Loki's claim, and advises a clear head. #19 - Quotes morm concerning Eomer. Agrees, but seems like mother-protecting-daughter reason. Spars at Diamond over family insult or something like that. #29 - Says we should wait about Loki and that he is not unlike what she expected. #61 - Remarks about Nilp not voting for himself. #78 - Talks about GW revealing. Also mentions EW strategy and is reluctant to employ wizard spotting as it might flush out GW. Doesn't want to vote for any of the current candidates. #142 - Gives reasons she will not vote for Loki. Doesn't think EW would risk discovery to defend wolves. #145 - Thinks Nilp wouldn't be a wolf. Goes through post thinking about who EW would curse. #164 - Voting list. #169 - Says gut tells her Nogrod is innocent. #181 - Analysis of Loki, Lommy, and Nogrod. Votes for Lommy for being a good EW pick and her sudden switch to vote for Loki. #184 - Clarifies Day End time. #186 - Responds to phantom about EW bluffing. #201 - Voting Update. #203 - Replies to a comment by the phantom and says she now knows he's not the EW. #206 - Says goodbye to Loki. Comments that she doesn't think him a wolf. Zali: #104 - Warns against discounting anyone. Says Loki gets her on edge. #196 - Agrees EW must be found. Votes Loki. Reasons include him being confusing and he worries her. Makes a point to say vote is not due to newbieness and that she has valid suspicion. Aplogizes for lack of participation. That's only Day 1. Sorry, but I am tired of looking through all of it. After going through all of the first Day, I have nothing on Azaelia. Celuien is looking less suspicious also, mainly because she seemed to give good analysis and reasons for her vote. Now, Diamond is something else. I think I may vote for her. One of the main reasons is that she seems to shift her view to fit what people say to her. Specifically I would point to #25 where she defends Nogrod against Loki, then when Celuien asks her something she turns to Nogrod with suspicion and says she saw what she expected from Loki. In the end she ended up voting for Loki. Also, she talks a lot, which is obvious and not necessarily bad, but a lot of it is role-playing and not as much constructive to the task at hand. I'm not too keen on that. I don't want to waste my vote, though, so I'll only vote Diamond if there's still a chance to lynch her. Although, of the three candidates so far, I don't want to vote for Eomer or Azaelia. I'd have to do some research on Alcarillo to see what I think. I've got about an hour before I have to vote, so I'll see what happens. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

05-17-2006, 01:59 PM	#4
JennyHallu The Pearl, The Lily Maid Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In my luxury Barrow, snuggled up in a pile of satin pillows, eating fresh fruit. Posts: 1,628	Val...one more time... The phantom was not the Hunter until last night. __________________ <=== Lookee, lookee, lots of IM handles!

05-17-2006, 02:02 PM	#5
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	Ok Ok so what was up with the arrow? I find that odd for the Phantom to just put that in there....Oh well...I thought I had something...I still think I do on the EW choosing Naria's vote so the Hunter would be killed sacraficing a wolf, which I think they did. __________________ grand return?........

05-17-2006, 02:04 PM	#7
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	crossposted ... So No I think the EW chose to kill The Phantom, by choosing Naria's vote....I think if the wolf votes are spread out the EW gets the final say on who goes do they not? __________________ grand return?........

05-17-2006, 02:01 PM	#10
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Valier, one question. Why would the wolves want to kill the Hunter? I don't think that works. For one thing, phantom only became the Hunter last Night, so all these 'clues' from phantom's posts mean nothing. No wolves would go after the Hunter unless they were sure he'd hunt an innocent. The Hunter is only of use when dead. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

05-17-2006, 03:24 PM	#16
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	The deadline draws near, so there isn't time for my ususl elaborate analysis. Roa: 174: Defends Loki. Says that the EW will pick unlikely GW choices. 200: Does not suspect Loki. Questions Nogrod’s motives in attacking Loki. Votes for Nogrod. 258: States Loki was believable because no one contradicted his claim and because of his timing. Says Nogrod was the one who caused confusion. 274/277: Analysis of Nogrod. 287: More explanation to Fea about Loki. Asks not to vote randomly. 295: Votes Nogrod for the second time. 324/336: Presses Nogrod about his attack on Loki, more explanation of why she finds him suspicious. 493: More about Loki to Fea. Wants to know what Valier is talking about with her theories. Agrees with morm about the narration thing. Wonders why Valier is so eager to be rid of her. 509: Says that Valier’s record is less than stellar. Doesn’t understand suspicion of Alcarillo. I see nothing here to suggest to me that Roa is the EW. The cannon-fodder theory non-withstanding, I can't see the EW attacking Nogrod as strongly as Roa did very consistently for two days. While Nogrod was a perfect set-up, he also made a dangerous wolf, and losing him would have been a blow to the evil team. My suspicion of Alcarillo does stem from what happened to the SPM, along with his overly in-character defensiveness. Granted, there's nothing wrong with talking about village affairs, but as both morm and my late husband pointed out, the wolves do not respect village relationships. Talking only about village happenings and connections to the diminishment of wolf-hunting debate is detrimental to finding the wolves and their foul master. And it gives a way to talk, look friendly, and hide in the open without leaving a trail. I also agree that the narrations should not be taken as clues. That doesn't seem to be the style of our Great Seal. And, again, the phantom was not the hunter until last night, so Valier's theories about him can't be right. And I'm puzzled by her attack on Roa, who really does not seem suspicious to me. I'll be keeping an eye on her. Two eyes, in fact, when I can spare them. __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.

05-17-2006, 03:17 PM	#18
Kitanna Child of the West Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn Posts: 2,132	Well I've given some thought to all that has happened and I came down to Eomer and Celuien as my top two suspects. Eomer for his cunning ability to double bluff and for Celuien's continued defense of phantom accusations of herself. In the end I simply flipped a coin to decide who to vote for. ++ Celuien Though I defended her and Diamond to begin with when they brought themselves to everyone's attention, when Celuien continued it and regarded anyone looking at her as a "pointless arguement" I began to suspect her even more. Oh crude, I need to run so I can't finish my reasoning. Sorry all. __________________ "Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

05-17-2006, 03:19 PM	#19
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Flipped a coin?!?! I'm beginning to think this relationship was a bad idea. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

05-17-2006, 01:43 PM	#23
JennyHallu The Pearl, The Lily Maid Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In my luxury Barrow, snuggled up in a pile of satin pillows, eating fresh fruit. Posts: 1,628	Two and a half hours left and this has really been a fairly quiet village this afternoon. I find myself at something of a loss: No one looks particularly suspicious today, except perhaps for Fea, Zali (maybe), and Di (maybe)...I'm inclined to think the third day 1 wolf (I firmly believe Loki was telling the truth...) probably was someone from that fateful list of SPM's though... I think the wolves worked like this: Night 1: Loki, Nogrod, ??A?? Night 2: ??B?? Night 3: Naria Night 2 and Night 3 may be switched, but I think Naria was innocent Night 1. I don't know if I think LMP would have merely chosen the most recent wolf to kill rather than use one of his ever-present dice. A d3, anyone? I think A is a SPM list-member, or one from that basic category: intelligent, trusted, moderate. B I am completely unsure of. But this list does rather put the EW as someone rather brash: Roa, Fea, morm, Diamond...there are probably others capable of trying to pull off a Loki/Nogrod/??A?? combo... Must think and vote later. __________________ <=== Lookee, lookee, lots of IM handles!