Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Gurthang]

First off, Diamond, you're overreacting. I apologize for insulting you, I did not mean to. No, I would not be happy if we lynched you and you were an innocent. I would be quite angry at myself. And if it makes any difference, I was not planning on putting you on the list; well, if I even end up making a list. I've only heard negative reactions to the idea so far, so I'd like to hear more.

And Valier, the only dream of the Seer that is still alive was the one last Night. And, according to the Nightly order, the Seer dreams after the Evil Wizard makes new wolves. So there have been no new wolves made since that Seer dream. Ironically, since the Nightly order is such, I wonder how the Seer even got to dream...

[Gurthang]

Oh, and just so everyone knows, the lynch list was the phantom's idea.

Originally Posted by the phantom, post #183

Only a fool of a Good Wizard would allow his posts to point to his gifteds. As I said earlier, the strategy of the revealed GW would not be to defend the known innocent, but to lynch the known wolves (or, at the worst, lynch innocents that he doesn't know are innocents).

The GW would put forward his lynch candidates, and any member of the village who tried really hard to put forth someone of their own choosing would get a response from the GW such as "That person isn't on my list. Shut up."

Attacking people not on the GW's approved lynch list is the same thing as an attempt to get the GW to defend someone, thus revealing to the EW and the Wolves a gifted villager.

Now, that isn't to say everyone can't give their suspicions. Naturally, the GW and Seer will read what everyone has to say and take all opinions into consideration for the nightly scry/dream, but being allowed to state opinions and refusing the leadership of the GW are two completely different things.

The GW and his gifteds are our salvation. Once he is revealed, it will be in our best interest not to argue with him or his lists, because he knows more than a common villager. Should we give our opinions? Certainly! He will use them in helping him decide which individuals to scry and move onto the lynch list, but we shouldn't demand that he change his list or anything. Disobeying him might lead to the accidental discovery of gifteds.

Anybody have questions?

I really think this is a good plan. I'll be back within an hour, probably to post my list.

[Firefoot]

Firefoot, you said you may have to vote early. When will that be?

It would be about 10 1/2 hours from now. I'm hoping not, but that's sort of how it's looking.

I'm still concerned about Firefoot. I didn't find her answers yesterday to be wholly settling.

I wasn't trying to be settling. But okay.

Gurthang, isn't it a little counteractive to tell us that you're going to choose the same seer? The EW knows who that is. S/he has the power to just keep ungifting or set the wolves on him/her. I would probably choose someone different.

Jenny, please do go ahead with an analysis of Kitanna. I certainly don't have time to do something in-depth on all of them...

[Roa_Aoife]

While I think the phantom had some good ideas (that whole hunter thing obviously worked out really well for us) I still have to disagree. Maybe it's my independant nature, but I'd really hate for the village to fall under that kind of limitation. You yourself don't know of anyone's guilt (or so you said), so all you could give us is a list of unknowns. Certainly if you find someone guilty, we should all vote for that person, but by narrowing things down so greatly, isn't it quite likely that a wolf, or even the EW, could slip past you? As I said, we may find things that you do not. Until you give us something concrete, I don't see the good of having you choose for us. Then it's just you vs them, instead of us vs. them. Besides that, the only gifted your protecting at the moment is the hunter, and isn't the hunter only useful when dead?

[Firefoot]

Moving through my list:

Caran: Cailin summed my observations up very well in her analysis post:

There is less information on Caran. She has posted regularly, but said less than some and even her voting pattern underlines her inclination to go with the crowd. She was suspicious of Lommy, yesterDay, as well. She has been clarifying things, tallying votes but provided few theories of her own. I do not think her particularly guilty, but not very innocent either. She might just be a little overwhelmed.

She tends to shift her suspicions around a lot, following pretty much whatever everyone else is doing. Day 1 it was Loki, Day 2 it was Lommy and Nogrod, Day 3 it was Celuien and a little bit Lommy and Eomer. I'm thinking that she's probably innocent, or at least she has been. No accounting for the here and now...

Glirdan: He has been putting out some of his own ideas. There's nothing about his posts that particularly sticks out to me as being wolvish, and with him gone, he can't be the EW. Probably innocent.

Kath: I think that, at least prior to last Night, she was almost certainly innocent. Her posts have been thoughtful, to the point, and sensible. Of course, these things, and the fact that she hasn't been under much suspicion, would make her a good target to be changed into a wolf. I would consider picking her, if I was the EW. But I wouldn't lynch her yet.

Lalaith: I honestly have no clear idea why she has been under so much discussion after reading her posts. Nor do I think that she was one of the ones recently changed into a wolf; she has been under too much suspicion for that. I'm thinking that she probably is innocent.

Jenny: Okay, I'll be honest, my mind has started to wander and I'm not comfortable saying much on Jenny because of that. I would say that she is not the EW, but that's about all I'm going to say for now.

That's all I'm going to do for now, and it doesn't seem to have been terribly productive. But my focus is not with this any more, and that means time to take a break.

Firefoot, you are innocent.

Glad to know somebody thinks so...? What Roa and Diamond said.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Oh, and just so everyone knows, the lynch list was the phantom's idea.

Anybody have questions?

I really think this is a good plan. I'll be back within an hour, probably to post my list.

Well, I suppose it's a good plan for not revealing your Gifteds. The thing that worries me is that if you pick four people I don't have any strong suspicion of and don't think should be voted for, I'm still forced to vote for them or be considered as disobedient and evil. And the idea of having to vote for someone I more or less find innocent, lest I be castigated and lynched, rankles me.

So I suppose it depends on your list. I understand why you can't take nominees, so I guess there's really nothing I can say about who I would consider worthy lynch candidates, besides what thoughts I've already given. I feel like I've come under suspicion just because you dislike my style and don't find my posts to be particularly worthy contributions, and as I have not intended them as space wasting filler, it bothers me. But I suppose I'll just hush up now, as it doesn't matter.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Firefoot, you are innocent.

Valier (from yesterDAY) and now Roa and Di has me uneasy.

[Diamond18]

Ummmm... Nilp, are you saying you're the Seer?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Good job, son. I really thought morm was the GW.

I'm still uneasy about Zali, too, vzv.

So, if you ask me what I think:

NIGHT 1: Zali, ++Nogrod, ++**Loki

NIGHT 2:++Naria

NIGHT 3: Valier

NIGHT 4: Roa, Diamond, **Nilp

++ - killed
** - scried by the GW

[Roa_Aoife]

Firefoot, you are innocent.

Are you the seer? Do I need to tear my Firefoot analysis into little pieces now?

[Diamond18]

Nilpy Nilpy Nilpy, where did you go? Well, I can't think of any other reason for Nilp's assurance, so... yay! Firefoot was someone I was fairly suspicious of, so it's nice to be able to take her out of contention.

x-posted with Nilp. Seems my patented "three name call" is still working.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm going to assume this means your the ex-seer. Unless Gurthang says otherwise, I'm inclined to believe you, too. So.. . *tears up Firefoot analysis* Glad that's out of the way. Now I don't know whether to wait for Gurthang's list and risk ignoring someone truly suspicious, or to move forward on my own and risk being "disobedient." (I despise being told what I can and cannot do... does it show much?)

Edit: Cross-posted with Gurthang.

Chill out. No one accused you of anything. We don't like your plan, but that doesn't mean we think you're stupid. We just don't like the idea of having you choose who we can and cannot look at. It's not because we doubt you or your abilities, it's because we like to think things out for ourselves. As I said, it becomes more of You vs the baddies, than Us vs. the baddies, and that is something I wish to avoid. So relax. Just because we don't to accept you as our dictator doesn't me we don't like you.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, the fact that Nilp just came out and gave us information kind of invalidates this post I've been working on... But I'm going to post it anyway! I spent a darned long time on it! So here's what I was going to say...

About Gurthang's plan...

These are our villagers:
1. Diamond
2. Caranlondien
3. Roa Aoife
4. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
5. Kath
6. Lommy
7. Glirdan
8. Valier
9. Sleepy Ranger
10. Kitanna
11. Firefoot
12. Alcarillo
13. Oddwen
14. mormegil
15. Feanor
16. Zali
17. Jenny Hallu
18. Lalaith
19. Eonwe
20. Eomer
21. Nilpaurion
22. Gurthang

We now know the last of those to be the GW. So that brings us down to 21 unknowns (for us ordos, anyway). If we vote on our own, we have a 5/21 (a little less than 1 in 4) chance of getting a baddie.

Now, Gurthang knows the identities of two innocents, correct? The Hunter and the former Seer. So for him there are 19 unknowns. 5 of those 19 are baddies. So eliminating the middle steps, our chances are 5/19 of getting a baddie. The middle steps can't hurt our chances, and they might help them (I'm not so good at statistics...).

The psychological problem with the proposed plan is that the choice is less in our hands. But from a randomly speaking point of view, our chances are improved.

You might read lorebooks saying my ancestors have been known to argue against plans based on statistics. It's true. But in those cases, it was because I felt that the game wasn't random, because we were using our own judgement. But in a village this big, with so much uncertainty, and with people's roles changing, I think we are as near randomness as we can get.

Listen to the GW!