Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Roa_Aoife]

You know, that brings up something I've been wondering about myself- So in the event of a challenge, are both wizards removed immediately? Or do they last till the end of the day? Do they come up with a cool fight scene? That would be cool. Gurthang vs the EW in what might be considered an actual RP. After Gurthang's opening, it's something I bet I'd enjoy reading.

The Diamond analysis is coming- I haven't done this much work since Lommy's massive flood posting several games ago.

[Kath]

OK, you've all written way, way, way too much and I'm not even going to pretend that I'm going to read through all of it properly toDay, but I've done a skim read and know basically what's going on.

Gurthang I'll follow your lead and list.

++VALIER

Because she has been so against Roa from the word go, to the extent that she doesn't even seem to see other possible candidates.

Now, my apologies but this will be my only post toDay I should think. T'was my last day of minstrel school and I've spent the last couple of hours drowning my sorrows and am therefore not completely with it, and may be heading out again in the near future. BUT. This does not mean this is a random vote. I took Gurthang's list and voted for the one I found most suspicious from previous Days and as much of toDay as I read.

One thing, regifting Nilp toNight would be a good plan. If the EW then goes after him there's a stalemate, we lose a Gifted toNight but the EW doesn't gain a wolf. And if the EW doesn't go after Nilp we gain a Seer for at least one Night.

[Lalaith]

Well, Kath, there is always the option that the wolves will just kill Nilp. In fact, there will be two kills tonight, as there will be at least four wolves even if we succeed in killing one toDay

[Kath]

Told you I wasn't with it Thanks for making that clear Lalaith.

[Roa_Aoife]

Diamond analysis- Since there's too much for me to keep track of, I'm going to analyze as I summarize.

Day 1
1st post - Nonsense, states intention to not vote for anyone in her family, and vote to save any one of theses members, will drop this after Day 1, gives thoughts on villagers (mostly nonsense), though some predictions turned out accurately:

Nogrod ~ My dear long suffering hubby, it's only a matter of time before he snaps. Sure he's okay now, but watch out for that one in the later stages.

Naria ~ Inhuman.

The Saucepan Man ~ Must die.

Of course, this is just as likely luck as it is something malicious. It just caught my eye, and made me wonder if she managed to state anymore truths.

2nd- Response to Loki, tells him to calm down

3rd - Defends Nogrod's attack on Loki, personal attack on Loki's playing style

4th - Response to Alcarillo, says she didn't threaten Cailin, merely predicted her death, says she hopes the predictions do not come true, more nonsense

5th - Clarification on the Loki matter- says it's reasonable that both wizards chose Loki, but refuses to believe it on his word alone, says there's no way of knowing except to kill Loki.

Here she says that Loki's claim is reasonable, but she refuses to believe it anyways.

6th - After suggestion by Celuien, questions Nogrod's reasons for attacking Loki, finds some of Nogrod's comments strange

I find this an odd turn around after everything that she'd said earlier. She admits that Nogrod's reasons don't really make sense, but only after Celuien remarked on it

7th - Nonsense response to phantom

8th - Says she's clueless about what sort of posting might reveal an Evil Wizard, believes the EW will be quiet, states that it would be really good for the village to catch the EW right now (Well, duh…)

9th - Agrees with Naria's guess about what the wizards fear. More Nonsense.

10th - This quote:

Yes... well, all that about the EW having more to fear than the GW and wanting to stay hidden as long as possible has been discussed as we've been, er, heeding the Watchers prophecy and preparing for the day when the Shadow arrived.

Sounds like she was trying to dismiss the talk about the EW

It's followed shortly by this:

Which brings me back around to expecting that the EW will be relatively quiet, banking on slipping just under our watchfulness. Being too quiet is suspicious in and of itself, so we'll be looking for someone riding the middle ground.

The second time she's stated that the EW will be quiet. She says it again later in her post. This looks incredibly similar to what Nogrod was saying about the wolves all being quiet, and it makes me wonder if she's trying to get us to look elsewhere for the EW.

11th - Glad she isn't the first to vote, doesn't fault Nilp's vote for Nogrod, admits Nogrod is suspicious, votes for Loki, wants to see Loki gone, says she'd give him the benefit of the doubt if it weren't for his attitude- This seems slightly hypocritical of Diamond since she's known for her attitude, and my lore books say that it's gotten her lynched before. It may also be a cover for her o be rid of the "one that got away"

Apologizes to family for not being around to save them if it becomes necessary.

This is just a devil's advocate view, but now that we know Nogrod was a wolf, and that he had fallen under suspicion at the point, it's possible that this was a direct comment to Nogrod.

Day 2, up next… Oi vey…

[Kitanna]

DAY THREE

Zali=
For some reason, prolonged wailing on and on really hits a nerve in me, which I'm sure is not entirely reasonable. But there it is. At least Diamond's post didn't feel like it was lacking in substance. Alcarillo provides no explanation for this totally in character wailing.

A reasonable case against Alcarillo, but up until this point she had seen nothing wrong with him. Now his melodramatic mourning session did give many people reason to suspect him and Zali may be no different. But you never know, she could have had a sudden change of heart for another reason.

Zali=
I'm going to vote for Eomer because he has, at the very least, an unhealthy obsession with the EW. I realize that this is happening without giving him any chance to defend himself, which is not ideal.

A vote for Eomer based on what Morm brought forward for us to see.

Zali=
Should Eomer turn out to be innocent, I think it's fairly obvious that we ought to look closely at Mormegil who got this bandwaggon-to-be rolling.

Again not unreasonable, but if I had to say anyone started an Eomer bandwagon it would have been Zali not Morm, since she cast the first vote against him. I feel this is just Zali covering her tracks if she happens to be wrong and Eomer is killed an innocent. This makes me think if Zali is guilty, then Eomer is most likely an innocent.

Eomer=
Mormegil, I'm trying to think like the EW in order to guess who he/she picked as wolves. Because, in the early going at least, there's no solid logic to work with. It's mostly guesswork. That's why I consider what would be good EW picks and go from there.

But almost every post from day one was about your supposed choices if you were evil, that doesn't look very good for you, considering your history.

Eomer=
but there is no way I am being cursed as a wolf. My survival rate is pitiful.

I believe this to be beyond true. I seriously doubt any EW would dare pick Eomer as a wolf. I'd say he's the EW or nothing.

Valier=
I know this is in the Narration, but I find this extremely odd as well......Weaving TALES are we? You know....this sounds like Roa's making alot of bluffing stories....I know we shouldn't use this, but where does it say that there isn't a shred of truth in the deaths?

I find it odd and troubling Valier used the narration to find some sort of evidence, even if we all knew it meant very little.

Valier=
I found this as well and it seems to have been true....I think Nogrod and Naria would have been bad picks for the GW, hence good picks for the EW. Also Loki could be in this list as well... Sounds Fishy to me that Roa's "plan" came true...Could just be a coincedence, but I doubt it...

I find it rather fishy you picked one wolf as a "goodie" and one wolf as a "baddie." What Roa said is just as odd as what you said.

Valier=
I don't think they're far fetched...So the Phantom let everyone know that he was the Hunter then by posting the arrow and I don't think it far fetched that he very well may have put in an anagram. I think Naria or one of the other wolves picked up on that and voted to kill him.....but I am still not sure.....Phantom did not kill Naria though

Funny you should say this. If you picked up on that when phantom posted it you could have decided to kill phantom in the night and your wolven comrades had a similar idea. However as many pointed out to Valier, phantom was not made the Hunter until that day had ended. So why did Valier continue to push her arrow idea?

Roa=
Valier- your record so far has been less than steller. First, you cast the vote that put Loki (an innocent) in the lead, then you decided the Nogrod wasn't a threat. My lorebook tells me that you are astoudingly off your game. Or perhaps your doing so purposfully. Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game.

A true statement, but I can't help feeling Roa is just trying to get everyone to look a Valier and not her.

Roa=
I don't understand all of the suspicion for Alcarillo. He had a reason to defend himself, as people were suspecting him, and SPM's death made him look quite bad. And while I don't particularly like incharacter posts at this stage of the game, I don't see it making him guilty.

Roa defended Loki who turned out to be innocent, here she defends Alcarillo, who no one knows about yet. And she attacked Nogrod who turned out to be guilty. This could go either way, Roa may well be innocent and has really good luck in catching the good and bad. Or she could be trying to put herself out there as an innocent and she can fall back on "I was right about Loki and Nogrod, why shouldn't I be right about Alcarillo?" If that is true and Roa is evil I'd say look closely at Alcarillo. If she's innocent, I wouldn't remove Alcarillo from the suspect list, but I'd focus on others before him.

Eomer=
Flipped a coin?!?! I'm beginning to think this relationship was a bad idea.

Picking between one's mother and one's love is not an easy choice you know.

Valier=
Feel free to look at me deeply tomorrow if I don't get killed by evil Roa and her wolves overnight....I have nothing to hide!

Not the first and most certainly not the last time Valier comes out and says Roa is the EW. I find it hard to see an EW Valier doing this over and over again. It raises an alarm, but I'm not entirely sure what to make of it. Valier just made this day chaotic, maybe she was just putting the cherry on the top.

DAY FOUR

Valier=
So I would like to find a wolf today and let the wizards do their own thing when they are ready.

Given Valier's oddity of Day three I decided to look into this statement. Mainly because most of the village has said finding the EW should be a main concern because then s/he can't make anymore wolves. Valier says the opposite. Valier had been pretty reckless earlier and given that it's hard for me to say what I should make of this. If I ignored Valier's claims of Roa being the EW and the whole phantom's arrow post, then I might say she is guilty. But given her behavior I find it hard to figure this out.

Roa=
Um, Fea, if the GW stepped forward, we could just lynch him to test his claim. And, actually, I'm not terribly opposed to that, except that we need to catch a wolf today, not a GW. The EW wouldn't really have any benefit to protecting the GW. Take some advil and possibly a nap.

I feel the village would lose a day with this plan and that is what the EW would want. Of course blindly following someone's claim is bad, but I can't see the evil ones gaining much by coming forward as the GW. That just gives the GW a leg up.

Valier=
I know, I know I cannot prove Roa is the EW (until she dies of course) and sadly no, I am not the unSeer. I just have a really strong feeling that's all! But I think our focus today should be on catching a wolf.

But your gut feelings have been wrong so far this game and it's possible they're wrong now. And if you are innocent lynching Roa on your gut feeling may be your doom as well (if she's innocent). But I know how you feel Valier, but even if you're right the wolves won't let you live through the night.

Valier=
Even if I was a wolf I would surely read everthing more careful, would I not? because making up lies is far harder than telling the truth or how I feel, which has been what I've been doing. I understand how others think I look suspicious but, like always in the Lore books if you check I am always found innocent when lynched because of my weird outbursts and accusations.

She speaks a good deal of truth here, but a small nagging feeling says she may be trying to bluff us.

[Kitanna]

Roa~ An excellent choice as a wolf. She has well thought-out arguements and can persuade others to her way of thinking. I'm not sure I think she's the EW, mainly because she had Nogrod lynched. Not just lynched, but she had a good case against him. I'd think if the EW picked her to be a wolf he'd reveal the others to her so she could avoid attacking them during the day in the fashion she attacked Nogrod. I'd say at the time of Nogrod's death Roa may not have been wolf. Knowing she can cover her tracks and persuade so well she may be the EW, but I'm not ready to put my vote on that.
Eomer~ An excellent bluffer and his "if I were the EW" statements do worry me, but the more I think about it the less likely I feel this bluff could be. He could pull it off, but I'm not as convinced today as I was yesterday. In any case he's a terrible wolf choice and if he's anything, he's the EW.
Zali~ At first nothing seemed amiss about her, but looking back she is rather odd. She was quick to jump on the Eomer bandwagon, which was partly because of time issues, but also looking at what had been said up until that point she may have thought Eomer would die and she wanted to make sure she had the first vote. Looking past that, Zali apologized for her votes, if she happened to be wrong. She tries to keep all her bases covered and has escape plans if her votes land her in trouble. What a good exit strategy. Her agreeable nature and ability to fly low and stay out of trouble makes her a choice for evil.
Valier~ A disturbing case. Valier's behavior of day three and part of today is so reckless I'm having trouble sorting out if she's bluffing us or just a terribly misguided innocent. She's a hard nut to crack and she gives me an uneasy feeling, but I can't vote based on that.

I'll probably vote for Zali or Valier today unless something happens before I get on to vote. But for now I'm going to go think over those two choices and figure out who is more likely to be evil.

[Valier]

Well I'm back now and I guess I have some defending to do.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Her switch after Night 3 is telling. It makes a lot of sense if she were a wolf. There was also that strange crying apology post

and some say I don't read carefully!! This appologetic post was for the Mod, for me using the narration for clues!!

Originally Posted by Thin

Valier - That's her normal playing style! Stop suspecting her for that! I have fallen to suspect her only because of that enough times to be quite sure she's innocent. Wolfvalier is - according to the sole chapter in my lorebook on the topic - more careful than ordovalier. And we can't accuse our Valier here for overcaredulness.

Thank goodness someone knows how I play!!

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Ok in this post Valier gives a list of who she thinks is good and who she thinks may be evil. On the bad list Naria appears, on the good list Nogrod appears. I don't have a whole lot to go on from that, but I did find that interesting.
Quote:

Yes I put Nogrod on my Goodie list because I thought he was innocent...boy did I get fooled!
I would just like to say that I don't think my switch in game play is odd! I believe Roa is guilty, but now that the GW is out I thought I would not have to concentrate on the wizards anymore and I could just look at who would be wolves....what's wrong with that?

[Lalaith]

Yes, catching wolves is good, but we really, really need to catch the EW soon.
While the EW lives, there will be two villager deaths a night. (And when the wolf population grows to seven, there will be three.) Even in the extremely unlikely situation that we successfully lynch a wolf every day, a new one will have appeared by morning to replace him.

[Valier]

I agree with you that the EW needs to go...why do you think I was pushing for Roa to go? I know noone else believes me about her, but what else was I supposed to do just quietly say Oh I think Roa is the EW? I wanted to cause a big fuss about it and was hoping to get some good reactions so I could strengthen my case against her and her Baddies. I thought everyone wanted to find the wolves and wanted me to look for them and not accuse the EW, that is why I made the "switch" to now start looking for wolves. So did anybody even look to see how others took my outbursts?

[Roa_Aoife]

Diamond: Day 2

1st - post Says she wrote the post during the Night, with out knowing who would die in the morning.
Response to Spawn, doesn't think the phantom is the EW,
Again states that the EW will opt for Discretion.
Also says that the EW may not follow logic, just to throw us off, points out that the EW may have picked high profile players,
States again that the EW will opt for discretion.
Nonsense response to Glirdan.
Agrees with Fea, says the GW is supposed to be a martyr.
More reasons why phantom wouldn't be the EW, but thinks he might be the GW
Says that we can't narrow the wizard search to those who have more time.
Response to SPM's list of unlikely gifteds
Response to Loki, says she voted him off because he was causing confusion in the village. (Odd considering how few posts Loki made, a couple at the beginning, and one at the end…. )
For some reason, has assumed that Roa is Loki's "friend" , again defends her vote for Loki
Again states that phantom isn't the EW.
Thinks Roa is a wizard based on "friend theory" assumes Loki was chosen because of friendship.

This is in direct contradiction with her post on day one, where she said she could see the logic in Loki as a choice for both wizards. Also, she seems quite ready to disregard any theories concerning the EW, with out putting forth any of her own, except that the EW will be quiet and use discretion, conveniently the opposite of her behavior.

2nd- post wonders about narration for gifteds

3rd - Response to Celuien, kind of agrees, mostly disagrees. Says everyone mentioned by SPM would find it risky to kill him. Also says that is could be a double bluff. In essence, she says nothing.

4th - apologizes for mistakenly attributing one of Spawn's quotes to Fea

5th - Sort of responds to morm, what she says doesn't really make sense here
Says she doesn't feel bad for lynching Loki, could give reasons why she found him offensive, but decides not to since he can't defend himself - No remorse for lynching an innocent?
Wishes things were moving faster at the moment, but says she'll have to vote early tomorrow
States again that phantom is innocent
Wonders if morm has some extra knowledge about the gifteds not performing their duties.
Says that while morm normally has good instincts she doesn't trust them at the moment, because she's innocent and he suspects her.

6th - Nonsense with phantom, wonders where Roa is, more nonsense, response to Fea, says her theory about Roa-Loki connection could only be half right at best, since both wizards chose him

7th - response to phantom about the seer not dreaming

8th - Says she's at a loss for who to vote for, admits that she is loud and troublesome like Loki (which is why she lynched him- again, hypocrisy) says Roa's answers were satisfactory, admits that among her banter it was difficult to find something to respond to, doesn't think Gurthang is a wizard… well, oopsie on her…
Votes Nogrod, says she suspected him yesterday, (directly in contradiction with her posts previous to Celuien's point) says one of his reasons (the early post, which she criticized Loki for previously) was just silly.
Apologizes.

I agree with Spawn, apologies creep me out.


Day 3 up next

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna, just to clarify- I was not suggesting we lynch Gurthang. I was pointing out why it would be illogical for a bad guy to pose as the GW. I also said that we needed to catch a wolf, to keep the wolf population from growing. And while I think catching the EW is a good idea too, at that time, I didn't really have any clues for who the EW may be.

[mormegil]

Okay, I haven't read anything after post 672 except Valier's posts as I wanted to read what she had to say before I vote for her to see if I could be persuaded and I state that I am not!

Her day one and two behavior was consistent with my general impression of her and she took a drastic switch on day 3 and has remained consistently wolfish since. It seems to make perfect sense that she was converted on that night and underwent a physical and emotional change with it. I would imagine it would be difficult to switch alliegences and I expect that we can use that to help us find other converted wolves. I believe we that at least two of the three originals are gone so now we need to find those whose behavior patterns shift. Caran is another notable figure but Valier is the most notable ergo I vote

++Valier

Would a guilty Lommy defend Valier or would a guilty Lommy defend an innocent Valier? Dependent upon what we find out if Valier is lynched those questions need to be addressed.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

O Mother!

In this time of sorrow I have not had an opportunity to come to the village square until now; but now that I'm here I will offer some quick thoughts.

First of all, go with Gurthang! This is a no-brainer: take his advice.

Second, this has been implied but not stated explicitly. The EW is more than likely female, right? To balance Gurthang? Worth thinking about. Fea is still my number one suspect for the EW.

Kit, I've already explained why I focused on the EW; and I've already explained why my posts took that general format. The style underlines the point that all I could do at that time was guess how the EW was working. I'm not averse to in-your-face bluffery (just ask those Corsairs from last year — nevermind)...

[and that is not an example]

...I'm not doing it now. Only proof of this, of course, would be to lynch me.

Another thing: I believe Valier may be, what some in the industry call, the sacrificial wolf. Pretty much all her strange behaviour is acomplishing is getting the village in a fantastic kerfuffle. Her single-minded attack on Roa is just uncalled for in a village as vast as this one still is. I think she could well be trying to instigate unrest, with the possible intention of making her wolf-allies look good by suspecting her. As I suggested before, it's not like she came out all guns blazing at the start. She seemed more tentative in her discussion of game rules, and when criticised for it she got rather sketchy. Scrambly, I would go so far to say.

I think I may go with my instinct again and vote for Valier. Oh, and was it Kitanna who asked me about Lommy and Nogrod? Yes, I truly did believe that Nogrod would have been a good pick for the EW at the start. Maybe it was this ultra-vigilance of the villagers that got him lynched; maybe he made unusual errors; maybe we just got lucky (Hmm....wonder if that's the right answer...) I sincerely think that there's nothing inherently worrisome about Nogrod, unlike Lommy.

So: I maintain that Nogrod was a good original pick and Lommy was a terrible one, and is thus not a wolf.