Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[mormegil]

Okay, I haven't read anything after post 672 except Valier's posts as I wanted to read what she had to say before I vote for her to see if I could be persuaded and I state that I am not!

Her day one and two behavior was consistent with my general impression of her and she took a drastic switch on day 3 and has remained consistently wolfish since. It seems to make perfect sense that she was converted on that night and underwent a physical and emotional change with it. I would imagine it would be difficult to switch alliegences and I expect that we can use that to help us find other converted wolves. I believe we that at least two of the three originals are gone so now we need to find those whose behavior patterns shift. Caran is another notable figure but Valier is the most notable ergo I vote

++Valier

Would a guilty Lommy defend Valier or would a guilty Lommy defend an innocent Valier? Dependent upon what we find out if Valier is lynched those questions need to be addressed.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Mormegil

It seems to make perfect sense that she was converted on that night and underwent a physical and emotional change with it. I would imagine it would be difficult to switch alliegences

If only this were true....I find it harder to be innocent!!! I made a serious decision to go gungho and attempt to help the village in a big way by bringing them who I think is the EW, but if Roa is indeed an Ordo I will have to back off from these "games" for awhile, for I decided this time to infact go with my gut absolutely and not quell. Time will tell how this will work for me.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Thank goodness that there are people here who have had time toDay to analyse other villagers, providing quotes and all. Now, here are my thoughts of those on the Death List.


Valier - I'm truly baffled how she seems to be so confident about Roa being the EW. Then again, I can sympathise with stubborn people... it's only that usually they have had a case against a villager. Now it's "just" a gut feeling.
She has been confused about the Nightly activities ie. how many Gifteds/Wolves there are. She was also confused when phantom became a Hunter. It might be a bluff, but I should think that if Valier was a Wolf, she'd know these things better. If we had a Cobbler (which we don't), I'd say it's Valier.

Roa - If Roa is a baddie, I think she's the EW. After a little disagreement earlier toDay she's been helpful with her analyses. Providing good posts is what any sensible villager in trouble would do to save their skin, though. Making strong defences and accusations (Loki and Nogrod) could be a way to try to make us believe that she's a helpful villager, but this is a bit same thing as in Valier's case. Neither of the ladies are the Seer or GW, so how can they be so sure? The only person beside the GW and Seer who has more information than others is the EW (if s/he hasn't informed the Wolves about each other).

Eomer - I haven't been suspicious of him, so it's a bit hard to say anything about him. There actually were some good points in morm's "trumped-up" case, but I'm not fully convinced about morm's innocence either, so...

Zali - Well, I was really suspicious of Zali yesterDay. Too bad that she hasn't been around toDay. I still think that her behaviour was odd, but I don't know if she could be the EW. I think she's very likely a Wolf although as others have said her timing yesterDay was unfortunate for her... I understand that if you're busy, a ready theory is an easy option. She just has been a bit too cautious and on the other hand eager to go with the masses.


That's it for me, I'm out of the Village Square. I shall vote for the person on the list whom I find the most EWish. That would be:

++ROA


One more thing, though.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'm aware of that and I'm taking both options into consideration when I vote. There's a chance the wolves know which would single out some people, but it's more likely they do not know which makes things much harder.

At least Loki didn't know his fellow wolves. Now that the amount of the wolves has grown also the probability that the GW or Seer stumbles upon one has grown which would make it rather dangerous for the EW to let the wolves know each others' identities. One scried wolf could give away the names of the whole pack and even though we are not allowed to perform double lynchings and couldn't get rid of them at once, it would be quite a blow to the EW. Still, everything's possible, I guess.

Good Night!