Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

But morm - as I said to Kitanna just now, how would Lommy know if Valier were innocent or guilty unless Lommy were the EW?

Lalaith but you are operating under the assumption that the wolves don't know each other but I'm not entirely sure that's the case. It could well be true but there are ways they could know each other and not have the EW reveal him/herself.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't really have the time or the energy right now to continue.

Diamond started off as really suspicious looking, but her behavior has died down slwoly over the past few days. I don't like her aiding in Loki's death, even after she pointed out that his declaration was plausible, and that Nogrod's reasons were fishy. She's posted way more nonsense stuff than she usually does, after she told Glirdan that after Day 1 it was out of place. Also, she seems quite eager to discredit theories about the EW, and keeps trying to say that the EW would be a quiet-ish player using discretion. This theory is not with out merit, but it is clearly pointing away from her and onto someone else. She also keeps repeating it, over and over. I suspected Nogrod for saying sort of the same things about wolfs.

Also, she herself pointed out that the EW could have used family bonds as a cover, and it is possible that she chose Nogrod in order to do just that. I can also see her picking Naria, and Loki, and then turning on him when he was turned back. If she isn't dreamed of tonight, I'd like to see her on the list tomorrow.

Edit: Cross posted- I meant to say Glirdan, not Gurthang- told you I was too tired for this.

[Roa_Aoife]

Zali - 3
Valier - 5
Roa - 3
Eomer - 1

Votes so far - 12
Votes remaining - 10
Left to vote: Valier, Zali, Eomer, Caran, Glirdan (where is he?), Sleepy, Kitanna, Oddwen, Lal, Eonwe (see Glirdan)
Time Left - 3 hours, 5 minutes

The lynch could go anyway right now.

Edit: I even checked before I posted! How does that keep happening?

[Kitanna]

To repeat what I said before:
I think Roa is an excellent choice wolf-wise, but I don't think she's the EW because of the way she went after Nogrod on Day Two. She could be a wolf, but I'm more concerned with voting for who I think is the EW today.
Eomer is probably not going to be picked as a wolf. He may be the EW, but his defense of himself is convincing. Depending on how today goes I'll be keeping a close eye on him, but for today I'm not convinced of his guilt or innocence.
Valier is a mystery. I don't have enough confidence to try and vote for her. Her playing is reckless and it worries me, but she could be a misguided innocent. I'm going to watch everything Valier says from now until she's proven innocent or guilty.

So that leaves:

++ Zali

She's been careful in covering her tracks and keepings all her bases cover, maybe a little too careful. She's trying to avoid slip-ups it seems and the EW has every reason to avoid slip-ups, s/he has a lot riding on their secret. Zali's careful posts and apologizes toward those she votes for worries me a lot. Almost more than Valier's reckless playing. I said earlier I'm focusing on who could be EW and I think Zali could be the EW, she'd also be a good wolf-pick.
Of the four Gurthang picked for us I feel Zali may be the guilty one.

[Roa_Aoife]

Lalaith, I think you missed this:

The evil wizard may choose to inform one or more werewolves who one or more other werewolves are; but this is a risky option and should be used with great care, considering the possible consequences.

The evil wizard is allowed to lie to his were-creatures.

So the EW can inform the werewolves who each other are, and the EW may also be lying to his wolves about who each other are. So a turned wolf is only useful information-wise if the EW has truthfully informed that wolf of who his/her comrades are.

[Lalaith]

Morm, the rules seem quite categorical:

The werewolves do not know each other's identity because while they are werewolves at Night, they cannot detect the identities underlying the curses

Also:

Note: Werewolves do not PM each other and therefore cannot debate with each other; thus, they are not going to find out each others' identities

Even if the EW were allowed to communicate wolvish identities to his pack via the sub-mod, as spawn points out, it would be dangerous for him to do so.

[Lalaith]

Well, I may as well vote now because I don't think I'm going to change my mind.

++VALIER

She fits in well with the werewolf demographic, as far as we know it. I think she'd be in demand as a wolf.

I'm quite impressed by Spawn's Roa-as-EW argument, and will give it thought tomorrow. But I've got some other thoughts about EWs as well and would like Gurthang's thoughts on this tomorrow, again, if we are all spared.