Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

I've been meaning to ask this, but is there any specific reason why the list has to be limited to only 4 people? There are still 19 living people, so I personally think the option pool could be at least slightly larger without giving away too much about who's Gifted or not.

Well, first day we try it, there's 22 people. So I put four on the list. At that time there were four wolves, so let's say we had two on the list. And me as the Good Wizard. That narrows the EW's "possibly gifted" list to 14 people, since he knows the two innocents on the list won't be gifted and he knows all four of his wolves and me.

Two die at night, another is gifted. Total 19 people left. Still four wolves, this time two gifteds. Four listees, let's say I'm lucky and we have two wolves again (unlikely). That's still runs 7 people off the list, so it's down to 11 already. Plus, there were two people on yesterday's list who the EW knows aren't gifted. One might have been a wolf, but that's still down to 10.

And that's a high estimate. It might be as low as 7. (If Valier was the only wolf on yesterday's list and no wolves are on toDay's list.) Assuming I'll have anyone new on the list tomorrow, that could be down to 4, counting two wolf kills toNight, and three gifteds in that stack.

Basically, four is pushing it. It narrows down the field of possible gifteds too quickly for the EW. If we had five on the lists, he would have great odds changing/killing a gifted toNight.

Originally Posted by Diamond18

If I obey the list, my vote toDay will be either given to Azaelia or Alcarillo. Problem is, I do not think that either of these people is the Evil Wizard... just possibly wolves. And are we, or are we not, looking for the Evil Wizard?

Truthfully, no. I have realized that, although you could find him by lynching, it is unlikely. There are far more wolves, so I actually think you should try to keep their numbers down. If you find the EW in the process, well that would be the best luck ever.

Originally Posted by Jenny

Kitanna, my dear, excepting Gurthang, any of us could be a wolf. And I don't like that this analysis mode was such a sudden change, and no one else picked up on that. Sudden changes are what I most fear in this game.

I noticed it too. I've been busy all Day so far, but I'm going to get to reading everything by all four before the deadline.

But now, again, I have to leave... this time for church. Later.