Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I have realized that, although you could find him by lynching, it is unlikely. There are far more wolves, so I actually think you should try to keep their numbers down. If you find the EW in the process, well that would be the best luck ever.

I agree. Somebody has to keep down the wolf population, right? I mean, we should of course keep theorizing about the EW-ness of different villagers, and certainly if we think the EW is on The List, we should vote for them, but in general we can leave it to Gurthang to try to find the EW at night.

Maybe the EW is purposefully acting like a wolf... [S]he could then tell the 4 wolves to loudly proclaim they think [s]he could be a wolf but not the EW, and thus we shouldn't lynch them yet. After all, the EW doesn't care about escaping suspicion entirely; [s]he is just trying to last long enough to give the wolves a good chance of winning.

I have to vote soon. I've suspected both Kitanna and Zali, but both seemed pretty innocent in their posts yesterDay. Kitanna I don't feel very worried about anymore. She's seemed helpful toDay. And Zali, well, her posts seem so earnest. I'm concerned that Zali might be fooling us with sheer earnestness, though. Still, I can keep doubting myself around in circles, or I can go with my gut. My gut tells me those two are innocent.

So, that leaves Alcarillo and Fea. Both seem a bit wolvish, but my lorebooks tell me nothing about the behavior of either. I tend to suspect Fea more, though, from others' analyses.

So, as I must go:

++Feanor

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

This post is based on how I suspect an EW might act. This is not an accusatory post, but a thinking aloud one.

There is always a general consensus that players fit into one of three categories: loud and bold, quiet and creepy, suspiciously average and non-suspicious. "He" will be used for convenience.

S1: Quiet and Creepy:

Our Evil Wizard is clever, hiding out behind villagers and wolves that are naturally loud and suspcion-drawing. He won't need to worry about attention being shifted to him until after the village has relieved itself of everyone that garners attention on their own. He could do as little as post only once in a while, saving his activity for the darkness of night, or he could be ambitious and perhaps nudge attention toward people that it's easy to set up. However, this Evil Wizard does not take chances. He is a player that is always quiet because he knows as well as anyone that switching traditional tactics is almost a guarantee of death.

S2: Loud and Bold:

This Evil Wizard plays with no holds barred. He will blatantly lie and laugh when his bluffs, double-bluffs, and even triple-mega-uber-hugeoriffic-mondo-bluffs work. This Evil Wizard is the one that knows how people think and manipulates them right out in the open. This Wizard is either somebody that you’ve suspected from the beginning or is somebody that you don’t suspect because it would be too obvious. This is the one that should have been dreamt of first night but is counting on the idea that everybody else knows it and doesn’t think he’d have the audacity to be intentionally evil when he knows perfectly well they’ll kill him. Perhaps less crazed as that, a loud Wizard might be less obviously suspicious and more generally helpful. This wizard posts theories, suspicions, occasionally defends people, and analyzes objectively (or at least as much so as one can). This Wizard, however bold he or she might be, is most definitely a vocal Wizard. This Wizard couldn’t avoid the spotlight if he wanted to, so he plays to his own fame.

S3: Suspiciously Average and Non-Suspicious

This Wizard is one of two things: everybody vaguely suspects him because he’s vaguely suspicious or everybody vaguely suspects him because he isn’t. Either way, nobody actually suspects him enough to do anything about him. He plays averagely, posting neither too much, nor too little, with careful deliberation before saying anything. He posts suspicions after careful analysis, positing few original or far-fetched theories, but rather playing purely by the facts. This Wizard is a player that is generally trusted because he is generally helpful and objective.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Next post coming soon to a store near you.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Everyone presently playing would fall under one of those stereotypes... :/

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Give me a minute! I'm not done, silly.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lalaith, you'll no doubt notice that I already laughed about me being male and my theory excluding me from EW-ness. Of course it's not 'relevant' as such, but I think it's very likely that the EW is female. Your own attempt to discredit such an obviously decent idea is quite suspicious in itself, especially as I think you make a better evil one than most others.

Sleepy, your idea is interesting but ultimately unlikely. Were I the EW and the village discovered it, you would no doubt go after Fea in a big way the next day, considering what I've been saying about her. So it would be stupid for me to play the way I've played if I were the EW and Fea was my minion.

Azaelia's recent posts are doing her no favours. They are extremely self-centred. If you are going to die then at least spend your remaining time giving the village your genuine thoughts, so we will be helped tomorrow. Thy constant defence is only a negative.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm not your minion ergo you could play however you wanted pertaining to me if you were EW.

still working on second big post

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, the EW could now make all his wolves male if we think along the lines 'EW = female'; but that only comes into consideration tomorrow.

Edit: Fea, you miss my point. I was demonstrating how Sleepy's theory doesn't work. He doesn't know you're not my minion.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Edit: Fea, you miss my point. I was demonstrating how Sleepy's theory doesn't work. He doesn't know you're not my minion.

(Bold my own)

Odd choice of wording, my friend. Possibly a harmless slip but for some odd reason it clears you in my mind...

++Feanor

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Sleepy Ranger

Odd choice of wording, my friend. Possibly a harmless slip but for some odd reason it clears you in my mind...

It's certainly an odd choice of wording, but one that clears him? I'm more likely to entertain the notion that he's EW and you're one of his minions and he hasn't told you your compatriots because of it than I am to vindicate him over it.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

All post counts are as of the time that I checked them and are therefore slightly out of date.

Quiet Players:

Zali – 15
Glirdan - 12
Alcarillo - 10
Oddwen - 8
Sleepy Ranger - 7
Eonwe - 4

There are dead villagers that have made more noise than these people.

Average Players:

Caranlondien - 33
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant - 27
Jenny Hallu – 21
Kath - 18
Kitanna - 18

They're not too loud, not too quiet; tend to blend in a bit.

Loud Players:

Diamond - 52
Roa Aoife - 52
Lalaith – 51
Gurthang - 41
Eomer - 39
mormegil - 37
Lommy – 37
Feanor - 36

The ones people are paying attention to.

Next post on its way.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Henceforward I'm removing Gurthang from my list for obvious reasons. I'm removing myself because I'm not guilty. If you feel the need to include me within my thoughts, feel free.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

It's certainly an odd choice of wording, but one that clears him? I'm more likely to entertain the notion that he's EW and you're one of his minions and he hasn't told you your compatriots because of it than I am to vindicate him over it.

One could take it anyway really, I believe todays lynching will tell us something. Of course, who in their right mind would point out that a certain something makes them look like the villain? Anyway, you're a frisky player and I never know what to make of you, lets hope I havent made wrong this time.

[Thinlómien]

I'm afraid I might not be able to come back after this, so here it goes:

++Alcarillo

He hasn't sat right with me at any phase during this game. He is a wolf, I think.

Now, you must be asking, why am I after wolves though a few hours ago I was convinced that we must find the EW and raging about a stupid list. I apologise, Gurthang, O Mighty GW, I did not see the point. After reading your and Cara's posts I can see it. The village hunts wolves. GW and the seer hunt the EW.

[Glirdan]

Sorry it took me so long to get back. I kind of dozed off for a bit and just woke up.

Glirdan--Far too little talk and I always fear that this could be a diversionary tactic. Of course he wouldn't be a wolf because he's never around...but then wouldn't that be just perfect?(morm)

Did I not say that I was going to be away for two Days (four in RL)? I could have sworn I did...

Morm's analysis of Zali really makes her look guilty in my eyes, yet, I'm not quite convinced she is. How do we know that she's not a very confused innocent?

I don't think he's the EW. Now, you may think this is a somewhat dangerous strategy, and I am well aware of the troubles we could face, but don't you think it would be worth lynching our females to get the EW? I am certain the Great One made the EW female to balance the male GW. Don't you all think that's very likely?

(And I'm not just saying that because some people suspect I'm the EW. ) (Eomer)

You know, this isn't that much of a crackpot theory as it first sounds. I wouldn't be surprised if you happened to be right and it might be a good idea to follow this stratagey. Let's see, there are seven men and twelve women. Seeing as Gurthang is the GW, that leaves a total of six unkown men and still twelve unknown women. If we look at these statistics, it looks far more probable that the EW is a woman.

You know what? I'm under suspicion again. Terrific.(Zali)

[sarcasam]
No! Really? I thought it was the man in the moon.
[/sarcasam]

C. I have not been playing well, and I know it. I think my brain is having a stupid week. I'm smarter than this, and if I was a wolf, I'd certainly be working a little harder to attract less suspicion. I've made some dumb choices

Ya, I've noticed you've been playing oddly as well, which makes you suspicious. According to my books of lore, there are very few people who play the same way whether they be innocent, Gifted or Cursed and, by the looks of it, you don't fall under that category.

I'll be around if you need me.