Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Lhunardawen]

After a bit of thinking - directionless for the most part - I finally understood what Nogrod meant by calling the Changeling the second Seer. Doh! He'll know the roles and get to play them for a time. With there having more innocents than fiends, then he's more likely to pick an innocent, and a well-timed revelation of what he knows and what the Seer knows will lead us closer to victory - even without double lynches.

A downside, though a bit unlikely, here is if the Changeling is inherently evil and chooses to play for the dark side. Like if he catches the Seer one Night and a wolf the next, he could kill the Seer for the lycans. Unlikely, as I said, though still very probable.

I don't know about you guys, but I hate it when someone holds this much power.

[littlemanpoet]

Frolic frolic

Feels like early morning here and the graves don't dig themselves. However I have a moment.

++ FORMENDACIL

I just don't trust him. Lupine. Wolvish. Sneak.

[Lhunardawen]

I guess I must be off. I leave you with

++THE GUY WHO BE SHORT

because who knows what beast he might use against one of us next?

Now, if you'll excuse me...which way is the hut where I'm staying?

[Boromir88]

I don't understand all the gloom about retractable votes. They could be a great benefit to the village. Let's say if you're a wolf, instead of one carefully planned vote, you can go back and change your strategy, perhaps to save a partner, perhaps to lynch a suspected gifted...etc. See wolves no who's on their side, retractable votes can be a benefit to them, but also to their own demise.

Also, retractable votes have no bearing on the voting record, which is still an important key to deciding who's a wolf and who isn't.

Since I'm innocent I can't say how retractable votes benefit me. That will only give the wolves clues to my thought process, and inside information to my own mind. And that's not good, if the wolves know their victims they are much more dangerous. So, I prefer to with hold information as to some things that I feel like doing (retracting votes for instance).

Retractable votes create confusion. There are lots of early votes thrown around... I understand people just want to stir the discussion a bit, or have fun, but wouldn't that make a perfect cover for a wolf? Especially when there's plenty of these random votes around...~Thinlomien

If this is directed to me, I accept your challenge...

--Sauce

++Lommy

Retractable votes create confusion? The only confusion it would create a hastle for is for Kath...who's now dead, so it shouldn't matter. Please explain, I want to hear what makes retractable votes "confusing?" (Note: Anyone can step up to the plate on this one if they have an explanation...I'm merely trying to understand this view of retractable votes being confusing and useless. I've explained the why not, now I want to hear the "why's").

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

A lot of people are acting more carelessly than usual. Yes, it might be just that villagers want to change their style every now and then, but it might also be a wolf with an identity crisis.

The villager's who are looking different in that sense are Boromir, Formendacil and perhaps Cailín.

Form seems more frustrated and complains about Day One more than usually. He has posted twice, but he hasn't really said anything. There's no need to decide beforehand that Day Ones are horrible and act in a gloomy and unhelpful way, you know. There are other sides in this game, too, than scrolling through pages and pages for making analyses. I find Day 1s to be great - only a bit different from the rest of the Days.
Form has no suspicions since he can't associate a turtle with any of the villagers, so he gives a heads-up concerning his comings and goings.
He says that things are going normally, and he'll be back when someone has managed to make themselves a lynching candidate.

Boromir, on the other hand, is more fickle than usual. First he posts in character that he wants to assassinate spawn, and he says that things doesn't look good.

He isn't surprised to be found on Fea's list of "Big Scary Things", but he says that Fea's vengeful attitude is going to get her into trouble. Is that a... threat? He votes for spawn.

Boromir points out that the votes are retractable, and he sure is taking an advantage of that. He changes his vote for Sauce, and says that he's saving Sauce from being ripped apart at Night.

He defends retractable votes, but doesn't explain how they're going to help him. Boromir gives an example how these votes benefit the wolves, but doesn't tell how he thinks that they help innocents in general. He votes for Lommy because she said that retractable votes can confuse us and he disagrees.

I think the votes cause confusion because it's harder to keep track of how many votes someone currently has, and why someone changed their opinion. I expect to see some interesting "excuses" for changing a vote as the Days pass by which might later help those who have ridiculous amounts of time to browse the voting records while making analyses, but madly voting anyone who crosses your road isn't the only way to take advantage of the new system. Since everyone knows that they can change their votes whenever they like, casting a vote doesn't have the same weight in gauging lynchees' reactions since, especially toDay, I suspect that people want to have a bit of fun with voting for each other before they decide on their final vote.


Cailín has been hastier and more careless than usual. On the other hand she's a tragedienne, but she has been quick to accuse people with "Day 1" reasons. She voted for Lhuna because... it was in the script? However, this has been crazier first Day than normally, and that voting frenzy seems contagious. She promised to be more like herself later, so I look forward to that.


Sauce, that's a good way to tally the votes, I think. If only I could find a button in my keyboard for making that unequal mark...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by spawn

I think the votes cause confusion because it's harder to keep track of how many votes someone currently has ...

Here you go m'dear:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
SpM ≠> Fea => Form (SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)

Originally Posted by spawn

[Boro] defends retractable votes, but doesn't explain how they're going to help him.

I can understand how he might use them and why he's not prepared to explain this for the benefit of the Wolves.

Originally Posted by spawn

Since everyone knows that they can change their votes whenever they like, casting a vote doesn't have the same weight in gauging lynchees' reactions since, especially toDay, I suspect that people want to have a bit of fun with voting for each other before they decide on their final vote.

Just because someone can change their vote, it doesn't mean that they will. I still think that there is much that we can learn from the votes, even today.

Originally Posted by spawn

Sauce, that's a good way to tally the votes, I think. If only I could find a button in my keyboard for making that unequal mark...

Try cutting and pasting from Word.

[tom bombariffic]

This is going to be an interesting day.

At the moment, no-one has said anything to majorly rouse my suspicions - a symptom of first-day-itis, I suspect. I can't guarantee that I will be back by voting time, though I hope to be, and so I will cast a vote for

++Boromir88

To explain, there were just a couple of niggling things about his long post. He says that

[retractable votes] can be of great benefit to the village

but follows this up by saying that

Since I'm innocent I can't say how retractable votes benefit me

I also found the emphasis on his own innocence very overt.

There is no real evidence against boromir. But the above caught my suspicious attention in a way that no other posts had done so far, so I have voted with my instinct, which is the best way to get started on a group of people with clean slates.

Glad to be in the village.

bombariffic

[Mithalwen]

Just checking in ... going to read but probably won't be able to comment til after work. Busy time in the aura industry....

[Mithalwen]

I have always supported retractable votes and they can benefit the village but I know how annoying it is for the poor dead moderator to keep track. So I shan't change my vote at a whim. I do realise since I am going to be around until fairly near the end of the day it won't affect me so much.

Personally I do find frivolous voting and changing suspicious. The wolves have most to gain, in my opinion, from creating confusion. A vote should always be a serious thing - this is life and death remember not picking a restaurant.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have to get my thoughts down, given that I seem to make a habit of dying on Night 2.

It would seem that my retainers have fled in fear and my mansion is left unguarded. So I have no option but to seek security amongst my fellow villagers, even if not all of you commoners are to my taste (particularly those amongst you harbouring secret fangs and Wolvish pangs). But, as I said, no autographs. I know that it must be a great privilege for you to find yourselves in my esteemed company. But, please, restrain yourselves.

First off, a note to Nilp:

I CUSS CANINE NOTE

Trust me? Well, I appreciate that it might be difficult for you, but you should (unless you are hiding a furry pelt, which is distinctly possible).

Some good thoughts coming out on the Changeling. It is clear that she has potential to be extremely powerful. After all, she will after a few Days have a great deal of knowledge. Quite possibly more than our Seer. And knowledge is power, right?

Each Night, the Changeling will learn the identity of another villager. And she has the advantage over the Seer in knowing her own identity, something the Seer will never know. And if she has the good fortune of actually picking the Seer one Night, she will learn the identity of two villagers that Night. So, although the Seer has an additional Night in which to dream (the Night just passed), the Changeling is likely over time to gain even more knowledge.

So how should the Changeling use that power? Lhuna has suggested that she might use it to benefit the Wolves. The Changeling would be foolish indeed were she to do such a thing. The only way she can win in this way is by assuming the identity of a Wolf in circumstances where, at the end of a Day, the innocents (including her) outnumber the Wolves by one. What are the chances of that happening? It is far more likely that she will die before she is able to get that far. And even if she survives that long, she will, unless she knows the identity of a Wolf who has not already been lynched, have to make an educated guess, and that could go awry.

If, on the other hand, the Changeling uses her power for good, she has a far greater chance of ending up on the winning side. This is because she will be able to use her own knowledge to augment that of the Seer. If both the Changeling and the Seer are able to survive for a few Days, their pooled knowledge will (as I think Nogrod suggested) be sufficient to give the village a great chance of victory. Furthermore, if the Changeling knows the identity of either the Ranger or a Wolf if and when her identity becomes apparent, she will be able to use that knowledge to preserve her life for one more Night at least.

So, Changeling, play for the village. You know it makes sense.

One question, though. Will we learn the identity of the Changeling after she is killed? I assume that we will, but it is important to be sure on this.

And now some thoughts on what has passed already today. First, the votes:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)

Hmm. Having fun with the retractable votes are we?

I tend to agree with Boromir that, as we have retractable votes, we should try to use them to our advantage. I intend to do so. There are a number of ways in which this can be done, but like Boro I will leave people to work this out for themselves. I agree, Mith, that they should not be used on a whim. But they can be used tactically, and that may involve changing votes a number of times. Yes, Wolves can use them too. But they can also be caught out using them.

Because of what he has said in this regard, I am inclined to trust Boro for now. I am also inclined to trust Nogrod because he has shared some good thoughts on the Changeling role and because he is coming across as genuine. Some good thoughts from him too on the “Animalia” theme, which are worth bearing in mind. As I said, a Nogrod that seems genuine most likely is genuine. Celuien, Lhuna and spawn too are looking more innocent than not in my eyes at the moment, for their contributions to the Changeling and retractable votes debates.

On the other hand, I am currently concerned about the following:

Fea
Form
Lommy
Nilp
Caran
Cailín

Fea because of her reaction to the “suspicions” that were voiced about her. It’s worth looking at exactly what she said:

Originally Posted by Fea

I feel so important that y'all are so keen on me just now. Sad, really... used to be that when somebody tried to kill me, I knew they were evil... or just trying to find out how my Great Glass Feavator works... or getting the recipe for Gobstoppers... you all know the drill, I'm sure, especially with the enthusiasm with which dentists seem to approach my customers.

Nowadays? No... nobody trusts poor Fea. And she's almost always pure as the ingredients she puts into sweets as sweet as she is. Sure, sometimes the sweet is a little nutty, but you know the old saying... Almond Joy's got nuts, Mounds don't. Must be Nilp and Spam don't like Almond Joys, but such is the sad lot of a confectionist working in a small town.

Er, it’s only me who has voted for you and that was a random vote (when initially cast, at least). Boro simply commented on your inclusion of him on your own random list and Nilp mentioned you in passing as part of his “kill the loudmouths” strategy (of which more in a moment). Yet apparently this amounts to everyone wanting to kill you and nobody trusting you. Yeah, right! Methinks ye doth protest too much, my lady. Yes, your reaction is peppered liberally with smilies and banter. But that only serves to emphasise its suspicious nature, in my view. You are indeed one to watch and, contrary to my initial intention, I may just now stick with my vote.

Form and Lommy I mistrust because of their continued railing against Day 1s as being useless. I happen to disagree. There is much that we can learn from Day 1. In my view, some reactions have already quite possibly been rather telling. And what is said today may become yet more useful in the Days to come. It serves the Wolves’ interests to keep Day 1s uneventful, to add little of use to the debate themselves and to remain non-committal. And what better way to do that than to rant on about little else other than how awful Day 1s are. Which is precisely what Form and Lommy have done. Indeed, Lommy went further and sought to muddy the waters of the Changeling and retractable votes debates.

I am concerned about Nilp for his lynch the “loudmouths” strategy, and not because it produced a vote for me. I am all for lynching loudmouths if they act suspiciously. But I do not agree with lynching them just because they are loudmouths. If only the quiet villagers remain at the end, then it makes the Wolves’ job so much easier. That said, this village seems rather short on quiet villagers, and Nilp’s strategy looks like a bold one for a Wolf to suggest, so I am less concerned about him than the others.

Finally, I am slightly wary of Caran and Cailín for jumping on the “early retractable votes bandwagon” which Boro and I started. Seeing how retractable votes were being used by others from the outset, a Wolf would be only to keen to jump in and place an early vote (which may be changed later, if necessary) with little or no reasoning. And that’s precisely what Caran and Cailín did. Caran cast her vote for Celuien, whom I had randomly voiced suspicion of, while Cailín went for Lhuna, generally known as a traditional early lynch target for Wolves. It’s not enough to warrant a vote yet, but I’ll be keeping my eye on them.

As for the remaining villagers, I currently have no view.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

After a bit of thinking - directionless for the most part - I finally understood what Nogrod meant by calling the Changeling the second Seer. Doh! He'll know the roles and get to play them for a time. With there having more innocents than fiends, then he's more likely to pick an innocent, and a well-timed revelation of what he knows and what the Seer knows will lead us closer to victory - even without double lynches.

A downside, though a bit unlikely, here is if the Changeling is inherently evil and chooses to play for the dark side. Like if he catches the Seer one Night and a wolf the next, he could kill the Seer for the lycans. Unlikely, as I said, though still very probable.

I don't know about you guys, but I hate it when someone holds this much power.

Well, I don't like the situation very much either, but we just have to cope with it.

Well, let's hope the Changeling plays on the good side and if she plays on the wrong side, she doesn't catch the seer. But as said before, it would profit the Changeling herself more if she was on the Good side.

And more frolicing... I hope the situation is a bit better when I come back this evening. (I'm in +3 GMT.)

Day One is pretty useless on Day One, but on the next Days, it is usually even more useful than one could suspect.

edit: xed with Boromir

[Thinlómien]

I didn't say retractables are not a benefit to the village, because they are, in some situations. I just don't like people toying with them.

And now I'm really going. I'll be back.

[Celuien]

Morning stop in...

++ NILP

Because someone has to vote for him.

And I don't like the lynch SPM, Morm and Fea plan.

Possibly to be retracted later.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I disagree on the 'un-thought-out' bit, at least on my part. I assure you, my vote for him was not purely out of a rush to save you. Sorry, but it wasn't. (considering you hadn't revealed yourself yet when I voted).

Actually, I meant un-thought-out on my part. At the end there, TGWBS and I were both willing to vote for someone else, but didn't have time to compare and contrast. While I was somewhat suspicious of SpM all along, at that point my vote for him had really just been to save myself.

Now, an analysis:

Lommy
Day One
Post #31: Thinks the Changeling will mostly help us - even as a wolf, may mess up wolves' plans. Points out they might also mess up the gifteds' plans. Doesn't like retractable votes

#33: Says everyone's babbling nonsense. Thinks Cailin's acting lessn reasonable than usual, but that's probably because of the retractable votes. Thinks it will be easy for the wolves to hide on Day One. Thinks it's likely there will be a wolf-on-wolf vote, which will then be retracted.

#40: Agrees with Lhuna that she doesn't like having someone (the Changeling) hold this much power, but says we'll just have to deal with it. Emphasizes the Changeling should play on the good side. Points out Day One isn't useful on Day One, but it will be useful later.

#41: Clarifies statement about retractable votes for Boro. Says she didn't say they weren't useful, but just doesn't like people toying with them.

#71: Corrects SpM characterization of her - says she isn't very anti-Day One, just doesn't enjoy the experience on the Day, but thinks they're useful later on. Agrees with Mithalwen that frivolous voting and changing is suspicious. Agrees with Tom that Boro's vote changing is suspicious; compares it to situation with Form in a previous life.

#73: Suggests we all post our animals, but doesn't think we're likely to find clues from the narrations.

#76: Puts forward the idea that she does put forward ideas ( )... Clarifies that Fin has played in one game before. Asks for comments on her suggestion of revealing our animals. Takes issue with SpM classifying Tom as someone who has maintained a presence, since he'd only made one post.

#82: Says SpM's response to her has satisfied her somewhat.

#90: Votes for Boro, referencing the suspicions she voiced in #71. Says she'll have her eye on SpM as well.

Day Two
#140: Says morm really worries her. Voices suspicion because of his unusual behavior, but goes on to say it would be stupid for a wolf-morm to act like that. Also says Caran looks really bad, but doesn't want to voice too much suspicion until she's read through herself, so she's not swayed by public opinion.

#153: Says that if lmp is right that morm is suffering from werewolf-weariness, it might indicate morm is an ordo, as that affliction mainly affects ordos. Disagrees with SpM, who says she was the main protagonist behind Boro's lynching.

#155: Votes for morm, saying she's not entirely sure she'll be back, but says if she does come back she'll look for other suspects.

#164: Skirmish with morm, who had said she seemed to be grasping at any straw to find suspicion. Points out that the aim of the game is to suspect people. Responds to morm that if she twisted SpM's words the Day before, it was unintentional.

#170: Hesitant to voice suspicions on TGWBS, as she's helped get him lynched before only to find he's innocent (I can sympathize ) Still suspicious of morm. Also suspicious of Caran. Says Fea needs to be watched, and Mith's and lmp's lack of substance makes her uneasy. Also warns to watch out for Fin who may be a wolf trying to hide behind helpfulness.

#194: Responds to Mith, who said if she were a wolf she'd kill Sauce. Says Mith could be double-bluffing, or they could both be wolves. Tells SpM the timing of her vote for Boro was because she had to go to sleep.

#198: Says a wolvish SpM would be scary, but not that scary. Says her vote for morm stands, as she thinks an innocent Caran would be helpful to the village.

My thoughts: Her first post seems quite innocent. The only suspicious thing I see is that she was clearly thinking from the wolves' point of view - if I were a wolf, I'd fear the Changeling; even in situations where they're on the wolves' side, they have the potential to mess up their plans. Her suspicion of morm is understandable, as many of us feel he's been acting suspicious, and he was attacking her with rather weak points.

In short, I don't find Lommy all that suspicious. If she's managing not to look suspicious to me, does that mean she must be a wolf?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

My comfort level is high with their innocence:

Caran
Mith
Nogrod

I'm not much worried:

Celuien
Lhuna
Cailín

Grandma, what large ears you have?

Durelin
TGWBS
Lommy
morm
lmp

Who in the world are you? I just don't have any idea:

Tom
Fin

Durelin: Eh. Sorry, but you aren't important enough to warrant my attention.
Lommy: You aren't either.

TGWBS, Morm, LMP: I trust you not.

++LMP

Werewolf fatigue my foot.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

[b]
Grandma, what large ears you have?

Durelin
TGWBS
Lommy
morm
lmp

TGWBS, Morm, LMP: I trust you not.

++LMP

Werewolf fatigue my foot.

Come come, Feanor. I give you the benefit of the doubt, and this is the best you can do? Pish posh. I hope there's an explanation of this vote and these unsupported accusations somewhere down the line that I haven't read yet, at the very least for entertainment value...

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by morm

In her vote for me it seemed mighty strange that in her previous post she implies that I'm innocent, next post which is really close to each other, changes her mind and votes for me with a back door ready for escape and says that she's not sure if she'll be back and yet she's able to post 4 more times. She does a remarkable job at picking the flavor of the day. Boro, SpM and Spawn voiced high suspicion of her and are all dead either by lynching or wolf death.

This is a valid argument. But the post before she voted for you, she didn't seem to be saying she really thought you were innocent. So it doesn't seem contradictory to me. Still, like I said, you have some points there. Besides which, jokes aside, the very fact that I don't have a negative feeling about her might indicate some extra carefulness on her part. So I'm certainly not letting her off the hook. And going back over your points against her, it is true that she has made some subtle twists of words. But she isn't one of my top suspects toDay. That could change, though... we'll have to see her behavior.

After sitting through two analyses, I'll revert for a bit to my random musings:

Mith has come up as a suspect, and I have some suspicions of her, too (Really, who don't I have some suspicions of?). I of all people won't ignore RL issues, so I want to give her a fair chance. But I'll be taking a closer look.

morm I suspected in a former life, but didn't follow through on my suspicions, and he turned out to be a wolf. So I'm tempted to follow my gut this time. But the truth is, it's impossible to tell with him. Well, not impossible for some people (ahem, one person)...

Fea I keep going back and forth on. One minute she's a cunning wolf, the next she's a cryptic innocent. I just can't read her.

lmp I'm still inclined to trust. For now...

Nogrod I want to trust also. I've been satisfied with him so far... seems like normal.

Now with my luck, lmp and Nogrod will both be wolves.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by lmp

If so, we have a known innocent that the werewolves must kill with loss to their ranks.

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but if you're saying that when I die, a wolf will die, that's not the case. Whomever I choose to hunt will die, whether they are an innocent, a gifted, or a wolf.

[Caranlondien]

Sorry if I end up double- or triple-posting, but I'm trying to be helpful while I have the time - tomorrow (RL) I'll be travelling, and may not be here for the latter part of the Day.

Concerning Celuien, so far to me, her behavior has been screaming "innocent". In her first post, she didn't even remember there were retractable votes. Either that was a brilliant wolvish ploy, or it was a sign of her innocence. I've been leaning towards the latter. Still, I think she should be watched, as she could be a fiendish wolf. But I would oppose her being lynched toDay.

I still plan to go over TGWBS if I have time, but for now I'll skip him and move on to Cailin. I'm doing this because TGWBS's posts right at the end of yesterDay seemed earnestly rushed. If I were a wolf trying to gain support by saving an innocent, I wouldn't be feeling rushed to get posts in. By no means am I saying this means he is innocent, but I'm trying to put my energy into the most useful areas.

EDIT: cross-posted with Fea

[mormegil]

Let me just say that if I were a wolf nobody would be suspecting me currently. If this sounds concited...fine, so be it. However Caran you miss an important point about Lommy. In her vote for me it seemed mighty strange that in her previous post she implies that I'm innocent, next post which is really close to each other, changes her mind and votes for me with a back door ready for escape and says that she's not sure if she'll be back and yet she's able to post 4 more times. She does a remarkable job at picking the flavor of the day. Boro, SpM and Spawn voiced high suspicion of her and are all dead either by lynching or wolf death.

[Thinlómien]

The post #268 of mormegil's really worries me.

Originally Posted by mormegil

In her [Thinlómien's] vote for me it seemed mighty strange that in her previous post she implies that I'm innocent, next post which is really close to each other, changes her mind and votes for me with a back door ready for escape . . .

I didn't say you were innocent in my opinion. I said that ww-weariness might point to your ordoness.

Originally Posted by me

A good point I didn't think about. But according to my experiences, this weariness usually occurs only with ordos. So should we conclude morm's most probably innocent? Or could he bluff here? I'm waiting for an explanation, whatever the case is.

. . . and says that she's not sure if she'll be back and yet she's able to post 4 more times.

Excuse me, but what's suspicious in saying that "I'm not sure if I can be back" and coming back? I'm totally missing the point here.

Boro, SpM and Spawn voiced high suspicion of her and are all dead either by lynching or wolf death.

I totally missed spawn voicing high suspicion of me. A quote, please. As to SpM, I never contributed to his death. I find this reasoning quite hollow.

[Caranlondien]

Cailín
Day One
#8: Jokingly accuses TGWBS

#28: Doesn't think the Changeling will be a threat to the village until later on. Randomly votes for Lhuna.

#69: Points out she is rarely reasonable on Day One. Says the Changeling will only hurt the village in a few hypothetical situations. Makes a few comments about retractable votes. Says she doesn't find Formendacil suspicious.

#70: Says she is not suspicious of Celuien, Spawn, Nogrod, Tom, or Fin.

#81: Says SpM's categorization of the village makes sense, but since the wolves are chosen randomly, and most people seem to be behaving normally, most people just stereotypically belong to the category they're in. Notes that Caran doesn't normally belong in the category she's in.

#100: Gives a run-down of how she's feeling about each member of the village. Says she will probably vote for Caran, Mith, Form, or Nilp.

#102: Votes for Form, noting there is little to go on and she doesn't suspect anyone all that strongly.

Day Two
#141: Says Caran does not strike her as decidedly wolvish. Says Boro's innocence was pretty obvious to her. Defends her switch of vote from Spawn to Form. Inclined to trust SpM. Agrees somewhat with Lommy's points about morm.

#144: Can't find the post TGWBS was referring to (Not sure what she's talking about here). Thinks Caran would be more careful of a wolf.

#161: Wants to know why spawn and morm were suspicious of TGWBS.

#207: Annoyed with Fea's attitude, may vote for her out of sheer annoyance but will try to find a more likely candidate.

#209: Identifies top three lynch candidate. morm she rules out because she refuses to believe a wolf-morm would sink so low. Annoyed with Fea but thinks she's probably an ordo. Doesn't find Caran that suspicious, but votes for her because the village needs to know her identity.

#246: Changes vote to SpM, saving Caran.

My thoughts: She really seems normal to me. I don't know if that's indicative of her being innocent, as she might just be a very skilled wolf. Her original vote for me despite her lack of suspicion of me looks bad, but I can see an innocent doing the same thing in that situation, if she really didn't suspect the other two. So I'm not sure what to think about her.

[Caranlondien]

Tom
Day One
#43: Says no one looks very suspicious yet, casts vote for Boro because of overt emphasis on his innocence.

Day Two
#124: Thinks Form's death may indicate the wolves are comfortable with their position in the village hierarchy. Says Caran needs looking at but doubts the wolves would be so obvious as to kill someone who voted for one of them.

#146: Says he's being swayed by the village's suspicion of Caran. Also suspects morm.

#149: Analyzes SpM, makes some points against him but in the end decides he's probably innocent.

#151: Says looking over SpM's posts, it hit him how little morm has been talking. Theorizes about morm changing his style because of his recent wolvish ancestor's success. Wants to watch him.

#168: Says he has abandoned his big-players conspiracy, thinks SpM is innocent and hasn't had time to look at others. Has to leave soon and will probably be voting for Caran or Spawn.

#174: Votes morm.

My thoughts: His shift to morm does look a little odd after saying he'd probably be voting for Caran or Spawn. He seems to explain it by saying that he didn't know morm wouldn't be returning for the Day. That doesn't really make sense to me, as I didn't want to vote for morm that Day for exactly the same reason - he wouldn't be back to explain himself.

This is little to go on, but it makes me nervous.

[mormegil]

Fea dear,

Will you please explain yourself?

[Caranlondien]

I hunted:
Night 2 - lmp
Night 3 - Nogrod
Night 4 - lmp
Night 5 - tgwbs

Darn you wolves for not killing me right away when I came out as the hunter! I would have taken Nogrod with me...

By the way, why didn't you guys kill me?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by me

Caran, who did you protect each Night?

An interesting question...

I loved playing in this game, and I loved trying the seer for the first time. It was real fun.

Kath, thanks for lovely modding and narrations.

What I maybe haven't said before, I appreciate Nogrod's valiant last day try. It was only doomed, and ridiculous to me as I knew how things were...

And I'd never have guessed Durelin to be the ranger... I guess she had the same advantage as me; being too suspicious to the wolves to kill or anyone to guess to be the seer, but never getting lynched though. Cheers, Durelin, well-played!

Originally Posted by morm

Fea dear,
Will you please explain yourself?

Second!

[tom bombariffic]

Thanks for a great game everyone, especially my great co-wolves, who were excellent throughout. It's been good fun.

Just a quick point - I've not noticed fea explain her master plan anywhere, and I'd like to know what it was, because I thought I had it sussed at the time:

Pm from ME to NOGROD and LHUNA:

fea's plan
Hi guys. Lhuna, I tried being earlier but it seems like I've missed you again! Hopefully this will be relevant if by any chance you come back in time.

Firstly, Fea. Nogrod, I couldn't tell from your pm if you understood her plan, but I'm certain I did. It was a very good plan. And, thank goodness, it failed.

Fea knew she was innocent and not gifted. She told the villagers to all vote for her, in the hope that everyone would change their votes - EXCEPT the seer and changeling (if they know any wolves). Obviously if everyone is voting fea but one person sticks to their vote saying they understand the plan and that they believe that [a villager] is guilty , then people will realise that they are the seer/changeling, and gain valuable knowledge of a certain wolf. They'd obviously die too, but 2 gifteds=2 wolves, a good turnaround.

The plan failed, because either no gifteds were present, or no gifteds understood it. When Durelin stuck to his vote, she said 'durelin understands', but he said he hadn't, which is true because if he had he'd either have voted for her or for one of us. I hope I'm explaining this well.

When you look back at what she said in this light, it seems very obvious. she says things like 'why would I tell you all to vote for me, and who will try to stop me?', putting the emphasis on people who DON'T vote for her.

I dunno if other people did get it at the time, but I'd like to know if I was right!

thanks again everyone,

bombariffic

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Fea dear,

Will you please explain yourself?

Fourth. In the absence of the space thingy answer, I'm quite confused.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Fea dear,

Will you please explain yourself?

Of course, love.

Basically, in the middle of the game, I realized that I was still trying to move back home from school, my family was about to meet my boyfriend () and my father and brothers were NOT being cool about it, I was about to start at least one new job, I was trying to finish up school work after term was officially over, AND my great grandmother is dying. I couldn't stick around.

You can even ask Kath; I frantically PMed her apologizing and freaking out that I had way too much going on in RL to keep playing. I asked her to kill me and she begged that I manage at least one final post before she killed me off at night so that I wasn't totally non-participatory.

That was my very random and non-backed-up "Y'all should just kill LMP" post.

Then I discovered a spare hour or so in which I decided that I had no inclination for my inevitable death to be wasted. I saw the village trying to kill Morm and I was worried they'd succeed. See, I was very convinced of the innocence of Mithalwen, mormegil, LMP, and Celuien at that point.

Since I didn't want TWO innocents killed in one night, I posted my plan that, should the village be uncertain of the lupinity of the lynchee, they ought to kill me.

Basic plan: avoid wasted deaths of innocents.

I also very sincerely hoped that somebody would figure out (without me saying it and potentially breaking rules because it referred to non-game discussion with the mod) that I wasn't coming back and would know to use my "suicide" as a way to gauge legitimate reactions. I figured out Nogrod that way.

The one post I made that said "Nogrod, I'm so confused" originally read "Kill Nogrod."

Secondary plan: use my inevitable death to spot those trying to capitalize on it.

I freaked a little when I remembered the changeling role and realized that I'd made myself look that way, but before I could tell y'all to kill Noggie and clarify a little (still trying to be discreet enough that my death would be productive), I had to leave and wasn't back for quite a long time; far after the Day ended.

Basically, I was going to die that night regardless and I really wanted somebody to take full advantage of the fact. Sorry it was so confusing but I was trying not to break any rules and I was bound by insane time constraints while doing it.

[Mithalwen]

Hence your decalration of love!!!! And there I was thinking it was all so complicated ..especially when I had to google trekkie stuff and discovered the changeling ref... and since I was never completely up to speed on what the changeling could do exactly I thought there was some cunning plan......

[Nogrod]

One more ironic twist to the game.

One of the reasons why we wolves were defeated was in Cailín playing her Changeling role exactly in the way myself and Spm had been calling the Changeling should do. So in a way the tactics that made me look good in many of your eyes somewhat backfired as Cailín actually did just the thing I had been calling for (I had counted on the Seer and the Changeling to cross-dream a lot, but...).

So both Durelin and tgwbs had been piling up suspicion and Cailín had checked them - but Lommy hadn't! When Cailín's announcement then came, Lommy had good reasons to check Lhuna (she had checked me already, tom had been lynched as a wolf so why not the third one from tgwbs's list - and anyhow enigmatic player who should be checked?). Finito.

Good teamplay by Cailín and Lommy!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

One more ironic twist to the game.

One of the reasons why we wolves were defeated was in Cailín playing her Changeling role exactly in the way myself and Spm had been calling the Changeling should do. So in a way the tactics that made me look good in many of your eyes somewhat backfired as Cailín actually did just the thing I had been calling for (I had counted on the Seer and the Changeling to cross-dream a lot, but...).

So both Durelin and tgwbs had been piling up suspicion and Cailín had checked them - but Lommy hadn't! When Cailín's announcement then came, Lommy had good reasons to check Lhuna (she had checked me already, tom had been lynched as a wolf so why not the third one from tgwbs's list - and anyhow enigmatic player who should be checked?). Finito.

Good teamplay by Cailín and Lommy!

Yep. With my final suspects on the Night I caught Lhuna were Lhuna, morm and Mith, it wasn't very difficult to guess who the remaining wolf was aftre reading through their posts. On Day 2 (?) morm received a vote from both tom and Nog and Mith just acted so innocenty.

I had two reasons not to pick the most suspected players (TGWBS, Durelin, maybe morm). 1) I though they'd be lynched soon anyway and I couldn't change it, so the dream'd be wasted. 2) I thought the Changeling would pick them.

I think the biggest thanks from the village victory belong to Cailín. *curtseys*

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Hence your decalration of love!!!! And there I was thinking it was all so complicated

Yeah, no. It was a lot simpler than Star Trek, though I started laughing like mad when that was brought up. Just that I was going to die and I wanted as productive a death as possible.

I kept track of the rest of the game... just I could only do it in bits and pieces of time that were utterly unpredictable in occurence. It was fun to watch and very interesting to see what people came up with about me.