Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have to get my thoughts down, given that I seem to make a habit of dying on Night 2.

It would seem that my retainers have fled in fear and my mansion is left unguarded. So I have no option but to seek security amongst my fellow villagers, even if not all of you commoners are to my taste (particularly those amongst you harbouring secret fangs and Wolvish pangs). But, as I said, no autographs. I know that it must be a great privilege for you to find yourselves in my esteemed company. But, please, restrain yourselves.

First off, a note to Nilp:

I CUSS CANINE NOTE

Trust me? Well, I appreciate that it might be difficult for you, but you should (unless you are hiding a furry pelt, which is distinctly possible).

Some good thoughts coming out on the Changeling. It is clear that she has potential to be extremely powerful. After all, she will after a few Days have a great deal of knowledge. Quite possibly more than our Seer. And knowledge is power, right?

Each Night, the Changeling will learn the identity of another villager. And she has the advantage over the Seer in knowing her own identity, something the Seer will never know. And if she has the good fortune of actually picking the Seer one Night, she will learn the identity of two villagers that Night. So, although the Seer has an additional Night in which to dream (the Night just passed), the Changeling is likely over time to gain even more knowledge.

So how should the Changeling use that power? Lhuna has suggested that she might use it to benefit the Wolves. The Changeling would be foolish indeed were she to do such a thing. The only way she can win in this way is by assuming the identity of a Wolf in circumstances where, at the end of a Day, the innocents (including her) outnumber the Wolves by one. What are the chances of that happening? It is far more likely that she will die before she is able to get that far. And even if she survives that long, she will, unless she knows the identity of a Wolf who has not already been lynched, have to make an educated guess, and that could go awry.

If, on the other hand, the Changeling uses her power for good, she has a far greater chance of ending up on the winning side. This is because she will be able to use her own knowledge to augment that of the Seer. If both the Changeling and the Seer are able to survive for a few Days, their pooled knowledge will (as I think Nogrod suggested) be sufficient to give the village a great chance of victory. Furthermore, if the Changeling knows the identity of either the Ranger or a Wolf if and when her identity becomes apparent, she will be able to use that knowledge to preserve her life for one more Night at least.

So, Changeling, play for the village. You know it makes sense.

One question, though. Will we learn the identity of the Changeling after she is killed? I assume that we will, but it is important to be sure on this.

And now some thoughts on what has passed already today. First, the votes:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)

Hmm. Having fun with the retractable votes are we?

I tend to agree with Boromir that, as we have retractable votes, we should try to use them to our advantage. I intend to do so. There are a number of ways in which this can be done, but like Boro I will leave people to work this out for themselves. I agree, Mith, that they should not be used on a whim. But they can be used tactically, and that may involve changing votes a number of times. Yes, Wolves can use them too. But they can also be caught out using them.

Because of what he has said in this regard, I am inclined to trust Boro for now. I am also inclined to trust Nogrod because he has shared some good thoughts on the Changeling role and because he is coming across as genuine. Some good thoughts from him too on the “Animalia” theme, which are worth bearing in mind. As I said, a Nogrod that seems genuine most likely is genuine. Celuien, Lhuna and spawn too are looking more innocent than not in my eyes at the moment, for their contributions to the Changeling and retractable votes debates.

On the other hand, I am currently concerned about the following:

Fea
Form
Lommy
Nilp
Caran
Cailín

Fea because of her reaction to the “suspicions” that were voiced about her. It’s worth looking at exactly what she said:

Originally Posted by Fea

I feel so important that y'all are so keen on me just now. Sad, really... used to be that when somebody tried to kill me, I knew they were evil... or just trying to find out how my Great Glass Feavator works... or getting the recipe for Gobstoppers... you all know the drill, I'm sure, especially with the enthusiasm with which dentists seem to approach my customers.

Nowadays? No... nobody trusts poor Fea. And she's almost always pure as the ingredients she puts into sweets as sweet as she is. Sure, sometimes the sweet is a little nutty, but you know the old saying... Almond Joy's got nuts, Mounds don't. Must be Nilp and Spam don't like Almond Joys, but such is the sad lot of a confectionist working in a small town.

Er, it’s only me who has voted for you and that was a random vote (when initially cast, at least). Boro simply commented on your inclusion of him on your own random list and Nilp mentioned you in passing as part of his “kill the loudmouths” strategy (of which more in a moment). Yet apparently this amounts to everyone wanting to kill you and nobody trusting you. Yeah, right! Methinks ye doth protest too much, my lady. Yes, your reaction is peppered liberally with smilies and banter. But that only serves to emphasise its suspicious nature, in my view. You are indeed one to watch and, contrary to my initial intention, I may just now stick with my vote.

Form and Lommy I mistrust because of their continued railing against Day 1s as being useless. I happen to disagree. There is much that we can learn from Day 1. In my view, some reactions have already quite possibly been rather telling. And what is said today may become yet more useful in the Days to come. It serves the Wolves’ interests to keep Day 1s uneventful, to add little of use to the debate themselves and to remain non-committal. And what better way to do that than to rant on about little else other than how awful Day 1s are. Which is precisely what Form and Lommy have done. Indeed, Lommy went further and sought to muddy the waters of the Changeling and retractable votes debates.

I am concerned about Nilp for his lynch the “loudmouths” strategy, and not because it produced a vote for me. I am all for lynching loudmouths if they act suspiciously. But I do not agree with lynching them just because they are loudmouths. If only the quiet villagers remain at the end, then it makes the Wolves’ job so much easier. That said, this village seems rather short on quiet villagers, and Nilp’s strategy looks like a bold one for a Wolf to suggest, so I am less concerned about him than the others.

Finally, I am slightly wary of Caran and Cailín for jumping on the “early retractable votes bandwagon” which Boro and I started. Seeing how retractable votes were being used by others from the outset, a Wolf would be only to keen to jump in and place an early vote (which may be changed later, if necessary) with little or no reasoning. And that’s precisely what Caran and Cailín did. Caran cast her vote for Celuien, whom I had randomly voiced suspicion of, while Cailín went for Lhuna, generally known as a traditional early lynch target for Wolves. It’s not enough to warrant a vote yet, but I’ll be keeping my eye on them.

As for the remaining villagers, I currently have no view.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Now that's just silly, Sauce. We all know that when I'm a wolf I tell everybody.

No, seriously though. It's day one and all I'm doing is sitting back to watch the banter. That post was purely a "Hey, I'm still around.", only in-character. I saw you having fun with yours and wanted to play. *looks vaguely pitiful and cute* But yeah... I noticed in my last lifetime that when I don't do much but sit back and watch, I successfully identify a vast number of bad guys. Given that and the fact that I'm on a bit of a time crunch right now anyhow, it should work out nicely.

As for retractable voting, I don't plan to partake. My vote will be my vote.

As for the changeling... I'll think more on this aspect of our village and maybe post thoughts later.

[The Saucepan Man]

I take your point about being in-character. You are an astute one, I’ll give you that, which does make me wonder whether a Wolfish Fea would react to what amounted to very little in such a suspicious way. That said, I would not put it past you to be masking with your banter a subliminal message to the village not to lynch you.

Also, if you are pressed for time and content to sit back and watch, why do you feel the need to comment every time that suspicion is raised about you? I note that your reaction is now more subdued. Is that an attempt to redress the previous over-reaction?

I remain suspicious. But I am conscious of the fact that I always find you suspicious, and that this may be clouding my judgement. Moreover, I am judging you on what you have said, whereas there are still a fair few here who have said little or nothing.

OK. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt for now and direct my vote instead to my other main suspect.

- - FEANOR OF THE PEREDHIL
+ + FORMENDACIL

All this ranting about Day 1s does not help the village at all. And he has said precious little else of use, while making sure that his voice is still heard. A vocal yet non-committal villager is a suspicious villager in my eyes.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

If only I could find a button in my keyboard for making that unequal mark...

I'd just copy and paste Faster, overall... especially since the only other way I can find is inserting a symbol in Word.

Day 1 nonsense aside, so far I'm most suspicious of The Saucepan Man... And not because he said he was wary of me. His plea for the Changeling to take the villagers' side conveniently included instructions on exactly how the Changeling can win on the wolves' side. And he pretty much argued that s/he should take the villagers' side because it would be easier to be on the winning side that way. But that looks like a manipulative argument to me, as the Changeling would likely take it as a challenge to do the more difficult thing... Who among us would read that and think, "Okay, I'll take the easy option"? No, we all want grand tales to tell at the end. And I think this Changeling is a threat because of this ego factor.

--Celuien
++The Saucepan Man

EDIT: Cross-posted with The Saucepan Man

[Durelin]

*clang*

*hiss*

*smoke*

*woosh*

Fashionably late.

The only thing anyone is able to make out for several minutes is the faint glint of a forehead protector.

Then...

*sching*

*thunk*

In the confusion of the smoke bomb, a kunai flies from out of the mist, fixing itself in a conveniently placed tree. Attached to it, is a mysterious note, tendrils of mist still sliding from its mysteriously torn edges.

The note reads:

++The Man
(Saucepan)

Appropriately following the airborne message, Durelin wanders lazily from the mist, her right eye busily reading over a shady looking manuscript, her left covered by her forehead protector.

We must work as a team if we are to succeed. For this, I suggest teamwork.

[The Saucepan Man]

Voting update:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
SpM ≠> Fea => Form (SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
Caran ≠>Celuien => SpM (SpM-2, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
Durelin => SpM (SpM-3, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
TGWBS => Cailín (SpM-3, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1, Cailín-1)

Interesting that the "Sauce bandwagon" (if that it be) appears to be gathering steam. You could do worse than lynch me today, but you will not find a Wolf.

Any particular reason for your vote, Durelin?

Originally Posted by Caran

[SpM's] plea for the Changeling to take the villagers' side conveniently included instructions on exactly how the Changeling can win on the wolves' side. And he pretty much argued that s/he should take the villagers' side because it would be easier to be on the winning side that way. But that looks like a manipulative argument to me, as the Changeling would likely take it as a challenge to do the more difficult thing... Who among us would read that and think, "Okay, I'll take the easy option"? No, we all want grand tales to tell at the end. And I think this Changeling is a threat because of this ego factor.

What curious reasoning. I would have thought that the Changeling would already have worked out how she can win on the Wolves’ side. Perhaps you are right about the Changeling relishing the challenge but, if it were me, I would go for the better bet.

Originally Posted by The Almighty Kath

Sauce, you know how I feel about anagrams, keep them out of your posts please.

Ulp! Consider me suitably reprimanded.

In my defence, the anagram was included as a joke in response to Nilp's expressed desire for revenge. So that there can be no misunderstanding, it simply declares: “Sauce is innocent”.

Originally Posted by The Almighty Kath

If they choose a wolf they are then evil for that Night, and so will not help the village. The Changeling can't decide whether to play as an innocent or not, it is decided by the roles of the players they choose.

Interesting. So presumably they cannot deliberately choose to kill a Wolf and must kill a Gifted if they know of one. And presumably, the converse also applies. If they choose an innocent or a Gifted, they must try to help the village. That does rather fetter their discretion at Night.

But, as I understand it, they still have discretion to play as they see fit during the Day. If so, I think that my reasoning still applies. The Changeling’s greatest chance of winning is still with the village. So, during the Day, they should play on the village’s side.

I have been pondering this “Animalia” theme further. As Nogrod reminded us (and it speaks in his favour), each of us chose an animal at the outset. Presumably those animals will be associated with us in some way. If so, the eagle and the tortoise may, as Nogrod suggests, be the choices of those who are Wolves. Although, if that is the case, why only two animals?

In any event, might it be worth speculating who may have chosen the eagle and the tortoise? I don’t want to lead the village on a wild goose chase, but we should consider every angle. My initial thoughts are as follows:

Eagle – A dominant personality? Someone who sees themselves as a leader? Religious and imperial associations? Form, Boro and morm seem the most likely candidates to me. (I suppose it could also apply to me, but I did not choose the eagle.)

Tortoise – Either someone with a wry sense of humour or someone who sees themselves as laid-back. Lhuna, Nilp, Lommy and Durelin spring to mind on the former reasoning.

I may be way off beam here so, if you think that there may be any merit in this theory, feel free to share your thoughts.

[the guy who be short]

Saucepan...

"Day ones are useful! Honest!"

"Let's analyse Kath's starting post!"

Spot the inconsistency.

NB: Quotes may not be represented accurately.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Tortoise – Either someone with a wry sense of humour or someone who sees themselves as laid-back. Lhuna, Nilp, Lommy and Durelin spring to mind on the former reasoning.

You think I don't have penguin?

Sauce, either you were careless or then you're intently framing me. You said that I was very anti-Day1. What about this:

Originally Posted by me, in post #40

Day One is pretty useless on Day One, but on the next Days, it is usually even more useful than one could suspect.

So I'm not completely anti-Day1, you see. I just dislike them on Day1s.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Personally I do find frivolous voting and changing suspicious. The wolves have most to gain, in my opinion, from creating confusion. A vote should always be a serious thing - this is life and death remember not picking a restaurant.

Exactly.

Bombariffic's point about Boro is interesting. He doesn't sit right with me either... The last time I complained about frolicing with retractables Form changed his vote to me, just like Boromir here, and if I recall correctly, he was a wolf. Form, if you remeber I'd be gald to be sure. There's also the possibility that it was in Valier's game, and then Form wasn't a wolf... Anyway, I see no reason for an innocent to act like that.

edit: xed with Cailín's later post

[Nogrod]

Spm: you are making a lot of sense - at least I see it that way. And if my suggestions have not been enough until now, please Changeling, read Spm's post #46 and think once more for this:

=Spm
So, Changeling, play for the village. You know it makes sense.

That's your bet!

Well, surely it's possible that the game gets into a situation where the Changeling has a chance to decide the game (knowing or guessing a wolf in a 50-50 situation and killing a villager for her/him and the wolves to win - well: 50-50 + the Changeling - I suppose the Changeling is counted as a villager in the tally?). But that chance is not the most probable, particularly if the Changeling plays for the village and reveals her/his knowledge at some point! And if it goes the bad way and the Changeling wants to assure her/his victory, well, I don't see us others having any means to stop the Changeling there. That's the role given to this game and we have little means of stopping her/him in that situation. But loyalty to the good cause...

But I would be a bit worried about a widespread use of the retractable votes. I see one good use for early retractables, namely the chance of getting the behavioristic "action - reaction" -stuff with them from an overjumpy wolf. I do not deny the value of this one. But if the overall feeling about them is that it's just some playful villagers toying with them, we could lose some wolvish trials for bandwaggoning in the midst of them. I could see the wolves trying something like that: let's see if this lynch-proposal gets some support, if not, let's change and try differently! Or they could just hide the wolves in the making the Day1 just one piece of mockery.

And here I agree with Spm again, we just draw different conclusions: I believe Day1's are good days, for about half of the games I've been in a werecreature has been catched on Day1! So let's keep looking around... and let's not waste them with just making fun of them. If everyone plays the trickster, it's hard to see, who's the evil trickster. If everyone plays openly, the wolves will have harder time to hide themselves...

PS. I have a bunch of exams to read and have to commit a lot of time to them today, but I will be back later and try to be more particular then.

EDIT: X-posted with Spawn, SPm and Caran...

[Kath]

1) Sauce, you know how I feel about anagrams, keep them out of your posts please.

2) You have misunderstood the role of the Changeling somewhat. What side the Changeling is on depends on the person they choose at Night. If they choose a wolf they are then evil for that Night, and so will not help the village. The Changeling can't decide whether to play as an innocent or not, it is decided by the roles of the players they choose.

[the guy who be short]

I was under the impression that the Changeling played for whichever side's character they had assumed for the Day.

Sorry to come to the discussion so late. I was out hunting Pokémon from early in the morning. I only saw the odd Pidgey. There was a time when a walk in the woods would yield a score of Pidgeys and a swarm of Caterpies. I think the Pokémon have been scared off by these werewolves, or possibly killed. But mine shall not yield so easily.

I have tried to contact the soul of Kath through my Haunter. Unfortunately, he is too high a level and ignores my orders, so we shall have no success in that direction. We must rely on what little skills we possess ourselves.

As for those who suspect me simply because I have a fondness for Pocket Monsters - what can I say against your folly? I have no Wartortle. My Squirtle, while I do have one, is completely under control and was safe in his Pokéball last night. I shall use my Pokémon to help the village, not to destroy it.

Nilp - I'm afraid I have no Electabuzz; I did capture one once, but I freed him later because I don't really see the point in owning many Pokémon at once. It doesn't allow bonds to develop. As for Zapdos, you've got to be kidding me.


Pokémon aside, I think those of you - Saucey - claiming that Day 1 can be of use are wilfully blinding yourselves. All but two of those on the village's side have no information at all to work on except our own blind accusations. Those two we do not yet trust. Day 1s are all about the wolves doing everything they can - or nothing at all - to confuse us.

Therefore, I shall vote at random. My vote shall not be retractable because no reason will be convincing enough for me to alter my stance.

My abacus tells me to vote for:

Shift Ran# x 18 + 1 = 2.656

++CAILIN

For having a role that would be spelt differently were she male.