Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Durelin]

*clang*

*hiss*

*smoke*

*woosh*

Fashionably late.

The only thing anyone is able to make out for several minutes is the faint glint of a forehead protector.

Then...

*sching*

*thunk*

In the confusion of the smoke bomb, a kunai flies from out of the mist, fixing itself in a conveniently placed tree. Attached to it, is a mysterious note, tendrils of mist still sliding from its mysteriously torn edges.

The note reads:

++The Man
(Saucepan)

Appropriately following the airborne message, Durelin wanders lazily from the mist, her right eye busily reading over a shady looking manuscript, her left covered by her forehead protector.

We must work as a team if we are to succeed. For this, I suggest teamwork.

[The Saucepan Man]

Voting update:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
SpM ≠> Fea => Form (SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
Caran ≠>Celuien => SpM (SpM-2, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
Durelin => SpM (SpM-3, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
TGWBS => Cailín (SpM-3, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1, Cailín-1)

Interesting that the "Sauce bandwagon" (if that it be) appears to be gathering steam. You could do worse than lynch me today, but you will not find a Wolf.

Any particular reason for your vote, Durelin?

Originally Posted by Caran

[SpM's] plea for the Changeling to take the villagers' side conveniently included instructions on exactly how the Changeling can win on the wolves' side. And he pretty much argued that s/he should take the villagers' side because it would be easier to be on the winning side that way. But that looks like a manipulative argument to me, as the Changeling would likely take it as a challenge to do the more difficult thing... Who among us would read that and think, "Okay, I'll take the easy option"? No, we all want grand tales to tell at the end. And I think this Changeling is a threat because of this ego factor.

What curious reasoning. I would have thought that the Changeling would already have worked out how she can win on the Wolves’ side. Perhaps you are right about the Changeling relishing the challenge but, if it were me, I would go for the better bet.

Originally Posted by The Almighty Kath

Sauce, you know how I feel about anagrams, keep them out of your posts please.

Ulp! Consider me suitably reprimanded.

In my defence, the anagram was included as a joke in response to Nilp's expressed desire for revenge. So that there can be no misunderstanding, it simply declares: “Sauce is innocent”.

Originally Posted by The Almighty Kath

If they choose a wolf they are then evil for that Night, and so will not help the village. The Changeling can't decide whether to play as an innocent or not, it is decided by the roles of the players they choose.

Interesting. So presumably they cannot deliberately choose to kill a Wolf and must kill a Gifted if they know of one. And presumably, the converse also applies. If they choose an innocent or a Gifted, they must try to help the village. That does rather fetter their discretion at Night.

But, as I understand it, they still have discretion to play as they see fit during the Day. If so, I think that my reasoning still applies. The Changeling’s greatest chance of winning is still with the village. So, during the Day, they should play on the village’s side.

I have been pondering this “Animalia” theme further. As Nogrod reminded us (and it speaks in his favour), each of us chose an animal at the outset. Presumably those animals will be associated with us in some way. If so, the eagle and the tortoise may, as Nogrod suggests, be the choices of those who are Wolves. Although, if that is the case, why only two animals?

In any event, might it be worth speculating who may have chosen the eagle and the tortoise? I don’t want to lead the village on a wild goose chase, but we should consider every angle. My initial thoughts are as follows:

Eagle – A dominant personality? Someone who sees themselves as a leader? Religious and imperial associations? Form, Boro and morm seem the most likely candidates to me. (I suppose it could also apply to me, but I did not choose the eagle.)

Tortoise – Either someone with a wry sense of humour or someone who sees themselves as laid-back. Lhuna, Nilp, Lommy and Durelin spring to mind on the former reasoning.

I may be way off beam here so, if you think that there may be any merit in this theory, feel free to share your thoughts.

[the guy who be short]

Saucepan...

"Day ones are useful! Honest!"

"Let's analyse Kath's starting post!"

Spot the inconsistency.

NB: Quotes may not be represented accurately.

[The Saucepan Man]

Guy ...

Where is the inconsistency?

Why are you attempting to shut off potentially useful avenues of discussion?

You may not like Day 1s, but that does not mean that we should not at least try to use such means as are available to try to find a Wolf.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Do you really believe that Ye Moddess Goddess would intentionally include clues as to the identities of wolves in her very first post? I'm a bit surprised at the insinuation when there's a far likelier explanation for the choices.

[Findëasëa]

SPM-the eagle and the tortoise may, as Nogrod suggests, be the choices of those who are Wolves. Although, if that is the case, why only two animals?

My impression is that the animal that we each chose is one which will, somewhat humorously, aid in each of our deaths. This is supported by the fact that Kath, I think, was a turtle farmer in a 'previous life'. As for the eagle, It might have been another favorite animal of Kath's. If multiple animals continue to pop up in the deaths I think that we should revisit this theory, but it will most likely be a waste of time, as I doubt hints would be left in the narration.

X-posted with TGWBS, Sauce, and Fea

[the guy who be short]

As Fea says, the Moderator must be completely impartial. Kath would not insert clues about Werewolves in her first post. It is likely she created her death to parody either nature or Discworld.

Though I'd like to apologise for the earlier post; it does appear a bit sarky. Perhaps I should have made greater use of smilies.

[Mithalwen]

*Still at work* so shush ..I think but can't check that a famous philosopher was killed by a turtle dropped by an eagle ... or a character from mythology ..a greek anyway... hope to be back soon .... but my Guru is a workaholic....

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Fea

Do you really believe that Ye Moddess Goddess would intentionally include clues as to the identities of wolves in her very first post? I'm a bit surprised at the insinuation when there's a far likelier explanation for the choices.

Well, each person's choice of animal is a secret known only to the Moddess and the person in question. But, if there is anything in it, you are right that they would constitute clues based on knowledge of people's personalities. I tend to agree that it's unlikely such clues would be given, but I still think that, unless and until specifically denied, it's something worth considering.

Besides, the choices of animal must mean something, right? Possibly they will only serve for narrative purposes, but I'm a sucker for conundrums and so cannot ignore things like this ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mith

I think but can't check that a famous philosopher was killed by a turtle dropped by an eagle ...

Aristotle, I believe.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Tortoise – Either someone with a wry sense of humour or someone who sees themselves as laid-back. Lhuna, Nilp, Lommy and Durelin spring to mind on the former reasoning.

You think I don't have penguin?

Sauce, either you were careless or then you're intently framing me. You said that I was very anti-Day1. What about this:

Originally Posted by me, in post #40

Day One is pretty useless on Day One, but on the next Days, it is usually even more useful than one could suspect.

So I'm not completely anti-Day1, you see. I just dislike them on Day1s.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Personally I do find frivolous voting and changing suspicious. The wolves have most to gain, in my opinion, from creating confusion. A vote should always be a serious thing - this is life and death remember not picking a restaurant.

Exactly.

Bombariffic's point about Boro is interesting. He doesn't sit right with me either... The last time I complained about frolicing with retractables Form changed his vote to me, just like Boromir here, and if I recall correctly, he was a wolf. Form, if you remeber I'd be gald to be sure. There's also the possibility that it was in Valier's game, and then Form wasn't a wolf... Anyway, I see no reason for an innocent to act like that.

edit: xed with Cailín's later post

[Thinlómien]

What if we all posted our favourite animals (the animals we picked) here?

I know it might not benefit the village since the wolves will probably bluff, but I can't see a way it could harm the village either.

I think we shouldn't place too much faith in finding animal clues from the narrations because there are some people who very probably know each other's favourite animals: me and Nogrod, Lhuna and Nilp, maybe Nilp and spawn... I think it would be quite careless from the mod-Kath to use them as clues then.

If you ask my opinion, the animals are probably for death narrations, nothing else. We'll see at the end of the Day if I'm correct.

The tortoise is likelier to be Kath's favourite animal . . .

As far as I know, Kath prefers turtles to tortoises.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lommy

So I'm not completely anti-Day1, you see. I just dislike them on Day1s.

Fair enough, but I still don’t see much substance in your contributions. Even if you don’t like Day 1s while you are in them, that is no reason not to put forward ideas, theories and speculation in the hope that it may just catch a Wolf. Only the Wolves want Day 1s to be unproductive.

So, building on my earlier thoughts, it seems to me that the best course of action for the Wolves on Day 1 will involve trying to avoid saying or doing anything that may come back to haunt them later or which may help the village. They will be non-committal, put forward few theories (certainly nothing controversial) and generally do their best to maintain a presence while saying nothing that will draw attention to them.

Of course, it is always possible that there will be an “in your face” Wolf who will be going for the bluff, behaving in a way that no one would expect a Wolf to act on Day 1 and thereby hoping to avoid being lynched, while confusing and misdirecting the village at the same time. However, that’s a risky strategy as, once suspicion is garnered, it tends to stick. I would be surprised if more than one Wolf (at most) adopted this strategy today.

With that in mind, I would divide the village as follows:

Those who have not yet said or done enough to draw any conclusions
Mith
morm
Lmp

Those who have maintained a presence while contributing little to the debate (possible Wolves)
Form
Lommy
TGWBS
Tom
Caran

Those who have contributed little, but nevertheless attracted attention to themselves (possible bold Wolves)
Nilp
Fea
Durelin

Those who have seemingly made a useful contribution (likely innocents, but possible cunning Wolves)
Lhuna
Cailín (solid recent contributions)
Celuien
Nogrod
Findëasëa
Spawn
Boro

If I had to place myself, it would be in the third category, but others may feel that I belong in the second.

For current purposes, I am ignoring the category 1 villagers, for lack of data. I doubt that any of them will remain as quiet as they are currently being.

I believe that there is at least one Wolf, possibly two, in category 2. All of these villagers, to varying degrees, look to be exhibiting the kind of behaviour that I would expect from a Wolf on Day 1.

As for category 3, I have residual suspicions of Nilp and Fea, but they are waning. I don’t think that either would be foolish enough, as a Wolf, to allow themselves to fall into this category. Mind you, Nilp has form (courtesy of his ancestors) in this regard.

There is quite possibly a Wolf in category 4 (possibly even two, but unlikely, I think). That is the Wolf that we should fear the most, but it is also the one that we are least likely to catch today.

I am still inclined to view Nogrod and Boro as innocent, for reasons stated earlier. And I remain content with my vote for Form.

[Findëasëa]

I think that the issue of retractable votes should be looked at in greater depth. The wolves know each other’s identities and have been given the opportunity to strategize. They are better equipped than the gifted and ordinary villagers to work as a team, as they need not worry about trust. This, I feel, makes retractable votes all the more useful for them, it can be utilized by the team of wolves much more readily than by the village as a whole. Although I am sure that the wolves will be protecting themselves by not all taking a stance in this issue or taking different stances, my guess is that at least one would want to make sure to establish themselves as a retractable voter. This way, suspicion would not be thrown their way upon utilizing this tactic later in the game.
This is a list of the individuals who have voted alredy and how many times they have voted.
Boro => (3)
SpM => (2)
Caran => (2)
Nilp => (1)
Cailín => (1)
Lhuna => (1)
Celuien => (1)
Tom => (1)
Durelin => (1)
TGWBS => (1)

I am not sure that a wolf would argue as strongly as Boromir did on this issue, then again the wolves probably want to make sure that this tactic is able to be utilized later in the game. Boromir sets up a defence for future votes, saying that he did not want to reveal his thought process, as it might aid the wolves.

Since I'm innocent I can't say how retractable votes benefit me. That will only give the wolves clues to my thought process, and inside information to my own mind. And that's not good, if the wolves know their victims they are much more dangerous. So, I prefer to with hold information as to some things that I feel like doing (retracting votes for instance).

This seems like a convenient way to get away with not jusifying votes.

[The Saucepan Man]

I don't understand all this suspicion of Boro. Nor do I really understand Tom's argument against him. If he is innocent and using retractable votes as a tactic, then I can fully understand why he would not wish to explain his reasoning. Why bother setting a trap if you are going to place a ruddy great signpost next to it? His actions speak more of his likely innocence to me, than of likely Wolfishness.

I just can't see a Wolf acting in the way Boro has on Day 1. Perhaps I am wrong, and he is taking me for a fool. He is one of those capable of pulling off such an approach as a Wolf. But I think it unlikely. It would be pointless for a Wolf to be so bold as to change his vote three times in the early part of the Day, before many others have even voted. What purpose would it serve? To make it more credible when he changes his vote at a more crucial point? It seems unnecessarily risky if that is the only purpose.

I'm sticking with my gut feeling on Boro.

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm keeping the animal theory to myself for now. I don't want to clutter the discussion up with what many seem to think (and understandably so) a red herring. And I see little point in revealing our chosen animals, at this point at least, as the Wolves will only lie if there is anything in it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Tom??? He has posted only once! How do you call that "maintaining a presence"? Sauce, that's not your first alteration of what happened toDay.

Are you purposely trying to interpret everything I say against me? Tom has said a darn sight more than morm and lmp, even if it was only one post.

My categories were based on my impressions of each villager, rather than the number of posts. His one post notwithstanding, Tom came across to me as someone who was trying to make his preence felt, but saying little of use. So I put him in category 2.

He isn't, however, high in my suspicions as, given that he is new to the game, I am prepared to cut him some slack for a day or two.

[the guy who be short]

...because I have little to add to the small-talk (no-talk?) everybody is engaged in at the moment, I believe the tale of the tortoise and the eagle was propounded by Aesop as a fable. Google does not tell me how Aristotle died.

Anyway, I'll be good, or somebody is bound to accuse me of "distracting."

Retractable votes: Don't care. Probably won't use them much. Means less thought needs to be put into votes, demeaning the entire process. I can't see that innocents who are thoughtful and serious about voting in the first place will need them much; however, there are one or two advantages to them which I am too lazy to use myself, as they are quite labour intensive. Wolves will, of course, use them with ease. Spotting wolves will be far harder here due to retractable votes.

New role whose name I can't remember: Apathetic. One thing I'm confused about is whether, after being a wolf, it spends the next Day on the wolf side or the innocent side. If the latter, it will always be on the villagers' side during Daytime, and statistically, it will be on the village side the majority of the time. Therefore, I welcome it amongst us.

In conclusion, I wish my Togepi would evolve.

[Mithalwen]

Three pages of notes and nothing very concrete. Except that unless my precognition is seriously on the blink I feel Sauce is genuinely on the side of the angels this time - the charm offensive is slightly unnerving but I am assuming that is his bit of "in character".

Otherwise he is being his usual scheming self, looking for loopholes in the regulations, playing about with anagrams, and using the retractable vote in an attempt to flush out Fea. Since Fea is possibly the most brazen player it is a very natural course of action.

Fea I find impossible to read - I may have to vote for her just to find out and minimise the time she has to mess with my head.

Boromir88 - I wonder about his reference then vote for Spawn. Hmmm I suspect he is not ordinary put it that way.... I expect he will post more before I have ot decide. I would hesitate to lynch him without good evidence because if he is innocent we don't want to lose him....

Fin, not ringing bells, seems likely to be fighting Nogrod for the job of vote monitor. A useful person so far....

Caran makes an early vote for a random reason - can all these early votes be earnest villages acting as "beaters" to see what will fly towards the guns? I don't really know Caran so don't know whether this is normal style or maybe the "fly-by-night" wolf ... I will hope to have a bit more to work on before decisions must be made but certainly more suspicious than most.


Tom seems to be a trying to help newcomer...nothing more so far... don't necessarily agree wiht him but don't particularly suspect either

Need to have a closer look at the others - especially Cailin, TGWBS and LMP whom are the subjects of my most indecipherable notes.

All I will add til then is that I might be tempted to lynch Formendacil if he whinges much more ~*momentarily turning into my mother*

Lots of us find Day 1 annoying but we just have to get on with it!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Fair enough, but I still don’t see much substance in your contributions. Even if you don’t like Day 1s while you are in them, that is no reason not to put forward ideas, theories and speculation in the hope that it may just catch a Wolf. Only the Wolves want Day 1s to be unproductive.

I don't put forward ideas? I disagree.

Tom & Fin - for being newbies (I am right in that, huh?) who actually attempt to make sense.

Fin has played in one game before, I believe.

Any comments on my revealing the animals theory?

Originally Posted by Sauce

Those who have maintained a presence while contributing little to the debate (possible Wolves)
Form
Lommy
TGWBS
Tom
Caran

Tom??? He has posted only once! How do you call that "maintaining a presence"? Sauce, that's not your first alteration of what happened toDay. Whether they are intentional or unintentional, you scare me...

[Findëasëa]

Tom & Fin - for being newbies (I am right in that, huh?) who actually attempt to make sense.

Sorry, I missed this before. I have played in one game.

Any comments on my revealing the animals theory?

It sounds like a good idea. Even if the animals, as I suspect, are only to be used in death-narratives of the person who supplied the animal, it would be good to put this theory to rest. The animal that I chose was the sea otter.

X-posted with SPM and Caran

[Cailín]

As far as I know, Kath prefers turtles to tortoises.

How silly! Why would she? You're right, Lommy, my mistake.

Sauce - your categorisation makes sense, though the wolves are picked randomly and most of the people have been behaving quite as usual. They stereotypically belong to one of those boxes, if you understand...

Interestingly enough, there is one person who seems to be out of her appropriate Day 1 box, and that would be Caran. I understand your motivation for placing her there and shall be observing her closely.

As for the Boro issue: I typically get slightly annoyed when someone proclaims to have a very special plan and then I don't get it, but I always viewed that as my problem. In other words, I think he's rather innocent-looking.

Why should I reveal my animal? It's a deep, heart-breaking and tragic secret! Also, it's supposed to be a surprise. And really - we won't find clues in Kath's narrative.

cross-posted with Sauce, Lommy & Caran.

[Caranlondien]

Well, since the Changeling's role has been clarified, I'm inclined to leave it alone for the moment and focus on the wolves. Hmm, I wonder if The Guy Who Be Short's Poké Balls would capture them...

Tom & Fin - for being newbies (I am right in that, huh?) who actually attempt to make sense.

For the record, Fin isn't quite a newbie - she's played in one game (erm, I mean, she has one ancestor... well, that doesn't quite make sense). Doesn't really matter, though... She's looking innocent to me so far.

As for my vote for SpM, I know my suspicion was very little to go on, but it's Day 1, here. I've never played with retractable votes before, so I'm taking advantage of it. So, pretty much, I changed my vote to SpM because I wasn't quite positive I'd be able to get back toDay, and I didn't want to leave my silly vote for Celuien standing. However, I think it'd be a shame for poor ol' SpM to live through only one Day yet again. Especially since he'll be valuable to the village if he's innocent.

Problem is, I'm not quite sure who to vote for now. Boromir seems to be sowing a bit of confusion, but I think he's just having fun with Day 1. Actually, I'm most suspicious of the ones already flying under the radar - dancing spawn, mormegil, and LMP, for instance. There are others, obviously, flying under the radar, but these three I have experience with and know they'd make cunning wolves. Since I have a bit of time on my hands, I'll go back and re-read before casting my final vote.

EDIT: cross-posted with Lommy, and SpM... darn slow Internet connection...