Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[tom bombariffic]

Just checking in before I begin my morning's analysis of day 1 key players.

I'll be around more today than on day 1, which is good news (hopefully). As far as what has already been said goes, I'm certainly slightly swayed by this caranlondian suspicion. I think morm's emphasis on her over-reaction (lmp may have said this too) is a key point, and one that strikes me as very odd. I'm witholding judgement for now but I've got my better eye on you, Caran...

Having said this, I'm also suspicious of morm. This issue had been alluded to, most substantially by thinlomien, but never really discussed. I'm just very aware that morm's most recent ancestor was a wolf, who was very successful because he kept playing exactly like his ancestors. To behave the same again would cause suspicion, and so perhaps he felt that a change in style, becoming less dominant, may help him slip through the net. I'll be interested to see how he acts today.

I'll be back shortly having looked back properly at day 1.

bombariffic

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nilpaurion Felagund has left the game.

You have been granted control of Nilpaurion Felagund's units.

[littlemanpoet]

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up. SPM, however, his ancestors were out early in the last great tide of evil, and so he's raring to go. As to different playing style, I refer you to the fact that votes are retractable, and therefore, why not? Puts a little pressure on those suspected. Seems appropriate to use the device if it's there to be used. That's all for now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailín

As to Saucepan Man… I am inclined to trust him, still, but I acknowledge that we cannot blindly assume his innocence. That is why -in his case- I rely on the Seer / Changeling dreaming / becoming him.

With all these warm, fuzzy vibes I seem to be getting at the moment, it’s quite possible that the Wolves will remove me from the equation overnight. Come on people, I want some suspicion!

Originally Posted by Fin

The actions of someone who would fit into this pattern posts little of substance, instead choosing to leach off of others arguments while doing little theorizing.

I agree that this would have been the Wolfish strategy yesterday, when there was little sense in the Wolves taking risks. Today, they might be a little more influential in an attempt to sway the village, particularly if one of their number is in the firing line. Those who seemed to me yesterday to fall into the pattern described by Fin are Mith, Elempi, morm, TGWBS and Caran.

I am still wary of Caran. I take the point that she has been less careful than we might expect from a Wolfish Caran and that she is not the type to go for the bluff of killing the one who voted for her. On the latter point, though, she would be one of three Wolves and she has acknowledged that she is easily swayed. Today, she has spent a fair bit of energy defending herself, but that could go either way. I also remain doubtful that a Wolf would openly have admitted trying to place a safe vote. If she is innocent, then there may indeed be something malign behind the quick votes for her today, following the suspicions initially raised by TGWBS and me – especially on Elempi’s part, given the speed with which he changed his vote following some points raised in Caran’s favour.

I also remain wary of Lommy, since she seemed to be the main protagonist behind the briefings against Boro yesterday. Plus, on reviewing what she said, she did get rather tangled up and flustered in the retractable votes and Day 1 debates yesterday, when pressed by Boro and me.

Originally Posted by Lommy @ #33

Retractable votes create confusion. There are lots of early votes thrown around... I understand people just want to stir the discussion a bit, or have fun, but wouldn't that make a perfect cover for a wolf? Especially when there's plenty of these random votes around...

Negative and unhelpful.

Originally Posted by Lommy @ #33

... the prevailing conditions being retractable votes and Day 1, I really can't say anything, except that whoever the wolves are it's easy to hide for them toDay.

Again, unhelpful.

Originally Posted by Lommy@ #41

I didn't say retractables are not a benefit to the village, because they are, in some situations. I just don't like people toying with them.

She may not have said retractable votes were of no benefit to the village but, in labelling them confusing and as providing cover for Wolves, she was pretty much saying that they are of gereater benefit to the Wolves than to the village.

Originally Posted by Lommy @ #71

So I'm not completely anti-Day1, you see. I just dislike them on Day1s.

This was her objection to my suggestion that she was anti-Day 1s. But my point was that sitting and railing about how awful Day 1s are and doing little else is entirely unhelpful. As Boro noted at the time, disliking Day 1s on Day 1 falls into that category. This is also the post where she seized upon Tom’s point about Boro being suspicious for not explaining what he was doing with his votes, essentially the argument which led to Boro being lynched.

In Lommy’s favour, I am still doubtful that any of the Wolves would have felt the need to vote for Boro yesterday. However, when she voted, it was by no means certain that his neck would end up in the noose. Perhaps, having pursued him with such vigour, she felt that voting for him was less risky than switching suspicions. Her other main suspect, I believe, was me, and I was looking to be in some danger at the time she voted.

Originally Posted by Lommy

morm really worries me. Yesterday he posted twice, both posts only a few lines. He explained he had a lot of work, so I let it be. Today, however, when I came to check how our village is doing, I find one post from morm, only a few lines echoing things that have been said and adding one vote to a bandwagon. I find this very odd. This is not his usual playing style.

Agreed. I would be surprised if a Wolfish morm chose to adopt such an uncharacteristic approach. But it may be that it has been forced upon him by circumstances. Not enough to arouse major suspicion, but I’ll be keeping my eye on him.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Finally, this probably makes no sense but I'm a bit wary of Fea. Randomness is always scary.

No, it makes perfect sense. She can be a tricksy one, that Fea. I am still concerned over the way she was so keen to stomp on the mild suspicions expressed about her early on yesterday. It was, as I recall, her main contribution to the debate yesterday. I also don’t like her last minute vote for me. With only Fin and Nogrod to vote, and with Nogrod having made clear that I was not high in his suspicions, there was little chance that I would be lynched at that point, so it was a fairly safe “throwaway” vote. She certainly remains high in my suspicions.

Finally, as to Durelin, I wouldn’t put it past her to be a bold Wolf either, but her behaviour yesterday was unduly reckless for a Wolf on Day1.

[tom bombariffic]

In looking over sauce's actions, It hit me just how little morm has participated - I knew he's only posted a little, but it's all been very low on content as well.

I take lmp's point about werewolf fatigue - but that's no reason not to explain your votes. I know it would be silly for him to change his playing style so drastically - but this may be the perfect bluff. Also, as I've already suggested, he may have felt that he had to after his immediate ancestor's success.

I'll be watching to see if he posts later in the day.

bombariffic

[The Saucepan Man]

Nice analysis, Tom.

A few points:

Fea didn't persuade me not to vote for her. My early vote for her was, in part, a ruse and was never intended necessarily to stand. Even though it did provoke a reaction, I was concerned that I might be reading too much into it, influenced by the fact that I always find Fea suspicious. I didn't like Form's Day 1 attitude and thought he looked more suspicious than her at the time, so switched my vote. Fea remains very much in my thoughts, though.

With regard to your Boro vote, it looked to me at the time to be a rather makeshift argument to get you in the village consciousness without attracting too much attention, and I did not agree with it. But I accept that there was little to go on at the time. Your contributions today have been impressive, and I am feeling pretty comfortable about you at the moment.

As for me taking control, well I do like to get my thoughts and arguments across and sometimes I do so aggressively. If I think someone is suspicious, I generally like to outline my reasoning as best I can. It's the advocate in me. My ancestors have been accused of trying to take control and influence the village. To an extent, that's kind of the point of the game (at least the way I play it). But no one should simply accept anyone else's arguments, theories or reasoning without considering them and making up their own mind. And there are some pretty strong-willed villagers in this particular village, so I am not sure that there is much of a danger of any one preson taking too much control.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up.

A good point I didn't think about. But according to my experiences, this weariness usually occurs only with ordos. So should we conclude morm's most probably innocent? Or could he bluff here? I'm waiting for an explanation, whatever the case is.

Originally Posted by Saucie

I also remain wary of Lommy, since she seemed to be the main protagonist behind the briefings against Boro yesterday.

What do you mean by "the main protagonist behind the briefings against Boro yesterday"? That it was mainly my fault he got lynched?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up. SPM, however, his ancestors were out early in the last great tide of evil, and so he's raring to go. As to different playing style, I refer you to the fact that votes are retractable, and therefore, why not? Puts a little pressure on those suspected. Seems appropriate to use the device if it's there to be used. That's all for now.

I'm doing my morning catch up and have to say that I agree 100% with this one. I wish I could give you a big hug right now LMP because this is exactly how I feel. Thinlo, perhaps I don't wish to use the town notice board to explain an absence of a couple of hours as everybody else seems so set on. I never mind a bit of suspicion about me but Thinlo your desire to grasp at any straw that might be moderately suspicious is in itself rather suspicious to me. If memory serves me well you did this yesterday with Boromir. I haven't had a lot of time to reread the thread and garner suspicions yet but one thing that sticks out to me is you and your desire to twist and turn everything said and done. Your interaction with SpM yesterday shocked me at how you would twist his words and weren't willing to understand what he was saying.

My current top suspects today are
Caran
Thinlo
TGWBS

Oh and just so nobody, Thinlo and others, freak out I've been told that there is a 'butchers' conference today and I will be in attendance. However this lets out at the same time as the village ends voting so I won't be back until tomorrow, if I'm alive.

[Mithalwen]

Am reading now and then - not able to really post yet.. sorry.... Bad RL day. As soon as I can you will get my full attention.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I never mind a bit of suspicion about me but Thinlo your desire to grasp at any straw that might be moderately suspicious is in itself rather suspicious to me. If memory serves me well you did this yesterday with Boromir.

Grasp any straw that might be moderately suspicious? Morm, have you ever heard that you have to suspect somebody in ww since not everyone is innocent? Good heavens, I have to vote somebody. And I think it's better to vote someone you suspect a little bit than throw a random vote. Anyway, I understand that it's a matter of opinion, so...

Originally Posted by morm

...one thing that sticks out to me is you and your desire to twist and turn everything said and done. Your interaction with SpM yesterday shocked me at how you would twist his words and weren't willing to understand what he was saying.

Well, I didn't quite get some of his points. Maybe I'm stupid. Or maybe he can't explain so that I can understand. If I twisted his words, like you said, it was unintentional. If you want to show me the passages I did so in your opinion I'm only glad to explain/correct you or admit my mistake, if I've misunderstood something. For I can't know what passages you mean. And if I was aggressive towards SPM yesterday, it was because I suspected him because I felt he twisted my words, and other people's as well.

but she seems a bit edgier than usual.

Maybe I'm finally taking after my dad and his well-known aggressiveness...

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by SpM

Actually, that was addressed to Caran.

Oh. Now I look stupid. Thank you.

Originally Posted by Cailin

And a quick question: Mormegil and Spawn voice suspicion of TGWBS and I'd like to know their reasoning behind this, because either I missed or there never was a case against him...

I didn't notice her Spawniness, but the Monkey Man seems rather reluctant to voice his worries whilst maintaining me on his likely to be lupine list.

As for SpM-Boro. That could just be a clever SpM. To be honest, I've resigned myself to not knowing what SpM is and largely ignoring him in my analyses. He's too tricksey.


In other news, I saw a Pinsir today, which was rather exciting as they are quite rare. Malheureusement, it fainted afore I could catch it.

Pokemon! Attrapez-les tous!

What? No in-character posts after day one? Are you all completely barking?
Like Growlithe? This is far too much fun to give up.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Ooh, Saucie's thinking about me. It's okay, I'm used to guys thinking about me. Just no wolf-whistles, 'k love?

Seriously, though... TGWBS is currently my biggest interest.

[tom bombariffic]

I've rather abandoned my big-players conspiracy having talked myself into believing SpM, and unexpected RL issues took up my morning, which I planned to spend looking at one or two others.

I have to be off in about half an hour, and will probably be voting for Caranlondien or Spawn. I'm going back now to quickly look back over their activity, may not have time to make a long analysis like I did with Sauce but will do my best.

bombariffic

[Thinlómien]

A lot of people are voicing suspicions of TGWBS and I can clearly see why. Relying to my lorebooks I hesitate to take sides though I'm a bit suspicious of him, since my lorebooks tell of me being quite confident of his wolvishness and contributing to his death only to find out he was an innocent. He can be quite baffling.

Morm is still think suspicious, since he has been mostly nonsense toDay as well, his latest post only naming three suspects without explanations except his counter-attack on me.

I read through Cara's posts as I said I would, and I found out that she mostly speaks nonsense (sorry, ex-sis), voices suspicions (but mainly old ones) and the only interesting point she makes is that the Changeling would probably try to take the Evil side, instead of taking the safer path.

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

...as the Changeling would likely take it as a challenge to do the more difficult thing... Who among us would read that and think, "Okay, I'll take the easy option"? No, we all want grand tales to tell at the end. And I think this Changeling is a threat because of this ego factor.

Maybe. We can't know before we know who the Changeling is. When I reread this I started to wonder if it's a wolf we see here, trying to sway the Changeling to play for the evil side...? I would also like to add the point that I wouldn't be surprised to find Cara a bold wolf.

Fea I found most baffling. She's slippy. I don't know what to make of her. She certainly needs to be watched.

Mith worries me too. She's posts pretty much, but she's quite insubstantial. Of this, if of something, could be used Sauce's term "maintaining a presence".

LMP is too a lot more nonsense than usually. I'm gradually getting more worried of him.

Someone pointed an interesting point on Cailín and her being swayed by spawn rather flip-floppily (don't say I'm not the best one to accuse anyone of flip-floppery, but I mean that whereas I tend to flip-flop, Cailín doesn't). Also, it seemed that she started to make sense after there had been worried remarks on her behaviour.

Fin feels quite innocent right now, but I'd like to mention her in this post since I have the feeling that she will fly under the radar and if she's a wolf that's a very bad thing.

Now, I see that's about half the village, if not even more. So maybe this could be of use, to arrange my thoughts and let you be aware of them:

Order of suspiciousness
Morm/Cara
LMP
Cailín/Mith
TGWBS
Fea
Fin

EDIT: xed with spawn, bomba and guy

[tom bombariffic]

SpM started out day 1 in a fairly light tone, with an in-character post predicting the outcome of the game (post 13).

He followed this immediately with a serious note about the changeling (they should be good) and then a random vote for fea.

This was a jokey, easy-going, day-1 start; practical, but taking it easy. However, when the village's confusion became clear, SpM took control.

Post 46 was a long one. After an initial in-character spiel, and a note to nilp (which, incidentally, just baffled me at the time), there followed a long argument for the changeling being 'good', and some observations on retractable votes (they can, and should, be used to our advantage). He declined (like boro, which he noted) to say how they could be useful, but maintained that they could.

He concluded this post with a long series of reactions to suspicious behaviour:
Fea for over-reacting to suspicions against her (including his)
Form and Lommy for claiming that Day 1 is useless
Nilp for his "lynch the loudmouths" campaign
Caran and Cailin (slightly suspicious of both) for jumping on the retractable votes bandwaggon.

Fea persuaded him to change his vote to form (reasoning that he was always suspicious of her, and that she had been posting in-character), though he found this in itself suspicious, and continued to watch her like a saucy hawk. He acknowledged himself that fea's quick reply to his comments about her showed that she wasn't as pressed for time as she made out, and that she was too quick to defend herself, and yet still changed his vote to form, who he had far less suspicions about. This is the only major thing from his participation on day 1 that I am worried about.

The next post also showed inconsistency, explaining how retractable votes can be useful (after saying that he wouldn't). He was not even pressed into doing this: Boromir was under suspicion, not him. However, to me, his diving in seemed more like an attempt to move the village in the right direction rather than anything particularly wolfish.

After this, an innocent response to kath's clarification of the changeling role, and the propounding of his ill-fated (now extinct) animalia theory.

a quick series of short posts followed, in which he basically replied to people doubting him. Again, there was very little suspicious in them. They were a defence of his posting against inconsistency (in which I agreed with sauce) and a couple of posts on his animalia theory.

In post 68, SpM actually contradicted celuien's defence of him, saying that he is suspicious, just not evil. I never like it when people say this, but an awful lot have, so he's not alone. In his next post, number 74, with his explanation of how the wolves should be acting and his categorisation of villagers into behavioural groups, he said that the signs of wolfishness would be ineffectual posting, or attempts to keep day 1 unprofitable. This was straight down the line of what he has been saying all along. So was his next post, in which he insisted on boromir's innocence.

Next he defended his categorisation of me as not particularly wolfish, basically saying I'm rubbish but not a wolf. Which is a fair point. I'm not sure whether he was implying that I was trying to say little of value, or that I just had said little of value, but I assume it was the latter, as the former would surely have made him more suspicious than he appears to be.




Thus ends my long and boring narration of saucepan man's life story. Now, perhaps, some analysis.

At first, I was suspicious of him. His early lack of seriousness followed by a sudden flood of earnest posts about boromir and retractable votes struck me as odd, and my initial assumption was that, after trying to keep a low profile, he saw himself being suspected and tried to take control of the voting to save himself.

But I'm not so sure. Whilst over the subject of feanor he did change his mind rather inexplicably, he has been by and large extremely consistent in his attitude, and was proven right about boromir. He has also tried to look at everyone, rather than campaigning against a particular person.

One thing that does make me uncomfortable is the overt way in which he took control; given the killing of formendacil, a particularly low-participating player, his control of the village worried me. But the voting for boromir was strongly against his wishes, so perhaps I am over'stating his influence, and the kill was on someone he voted for (form), which would be a bold move for a wolf.

Looking over yesterday has reassured me. I think it's important to watch how he tries to influence people, and how he reacts if others (eg morm) become more prominent as well, but for now he's clear of suspicion in my mind.

bombariffic