Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but if you're saying that when I die, a wolf will die, that's not the case. Whomever I choose to hunt will die, whether they are an innocent, a gifted, or a wolf.

Oh yeah. That's right. Well, in that case, we will probably lose you after this Night. A shame to lose our Hunter so quickly. Oh! There is this possibility, though, that a werewolf won't dare try to kill you on the off-chance that you pick one of them to hunt. So you may be around longer than one Night.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Also, if Elempi is a wolf, Mith is definitely not one. The other way around the same.

Why? This didn't quite follow from your reasoning, as far as I could tell; at least, not as a necessary, virtually mathematical correlation. Perhaps in terms of likelihoods, it's as possibly correct a conclusion as any. My problem with it is that I am inclined to trust Morm, and knowing my own innocence, I therefore tend to give Mith the benefit of the doubt; which makes what you say hard for me to accept.

Mith's two most recent posts are just too guileless for werewolvery. So it seems to me.

[Cailín]

Elempi, I am not saying that you could not both be innocents.

I'm thinking that, if you both are wolves, Mith would not have changed her vote so quickly.

I agree: Mith's latest posts have rather convinced me of her innocence (at least enough to give her the benefit of the doubt today). It does not automatically follow that you are a wolf though, and I never said that.

[Celuien]

Those last posts convince me as well. Removing Mith from my suspect list...

I have a lot of stuff to catch up on besides WW. So, bear with me a little longer today. I'm planning to take a closer look at TGWBS, who's been escaping my notice, and morm. Possibly one or two others as well.

[Thinlómien]

Well, I'm here.

Probably innocent
Nogrod
Celuien
Caranlondien - I believe her claim

Not very suspicious of
Cailín
Lhuna
Mith - her few latest posts are quite convincing
Fin
Tom
LMP - after rereading his posts I didn't find anything especially suspicious there

Totally unknown
Durelin
TGWBS
Fea
I can't interpret their behaviour.

Wary of
morm

Originally Posted by morm

She [Thinlómien] wanting to kill me because of my playing style and gives herself an out too. She says if she comes back she will look for some real suspects yet when she comes back I don't see her do that. She admits I'm not a real suspect but I appear to be an easy target so she goes for me. If I was lynched nobody would think it horribly suspicious to vote for me that early on. Voting somebody on 'playing style' in not very acceptable to me in that we all have our own and valid styles. If I am suspicious and you can find a reason, fine vote for me but not for this petty dribble.

So that's the problem with me? I found you a little suspicious plus I didn't like your playing style. As I didn't have any stronger suspicions, I voted you. I came back. I reread some things, but still saw you as the most suspicious person. Or did you miss this:

Originally Posted by me

I'm leaving now. My vote stays the same as I suspect morm as much as my other main suspect Cara, and I feel an innocent Cara would be more useful to the village than an innocent morm with his current behaviour.

? As to the playing style, I have nothing against your normal playing style, but I didn't like the way you played on Days 1 & 2.
I agree with you to some point that voting because of someone's playing style is rather stupid, but I also think that if there are many people one suspects as much, I think playing style can be taken into consideration, (which I did yesterday).

Originally Posted by LMP

Care to explain what you mean? This is awfully vague, which is in its turn rather suspicious, although, Lommy, I suppose you tend to be vague, so maybe this is just you theorizing out loud. Either way, I'd appreciate it if you would do me the courtesy of explaining what "nonsense" you're talking about? Thanks.

I only meant that according to my little experiences you are theorising and making cases much more, so the way you played stroke me as odd. If you want me to comment your posts post by post and explain what I think about each one, feel free to ask me. I won't, anyway, do that unless requested, since I think it's a little help and just floods the thread (okay, it wasn't me the floodposter who said that ) and takes my time.

Now I'm off to do a morm-analysis...

edit: xed with Celuien, TGWBS and Lhuna

[the guy who be short]

Just popping in. I was planning on doing a morm-analysis myself. If Lommy covers the points, fine; if she doesn't, I'll do it myself anyway.

I just have time to comment on LMP. LMP started the SpM bandwagon with what seemed like complete certainty. This makes me think he is innocent - he once aimed such a concerted attack on me. I have come to disregard much of what he says simply because he has a knack for accusing innocents and getting them lynched. So, while I maintain that he is innocent, I will be sure not to listen to him.

[Celuien]

The Short One:

55: Apologies for late arrival. Lots of Pokemon talk. Thinks that day 1 is useless because innocents have nothing to work on. Will vote at random, says he will not retract his vote. Votes Cailin.
57: Says there’s an inconsistency in SPaM’s idea about the usefulness of day ones re finding clues in Kath’s narration.
61: Says the mod is impartial and there are no clues in the narration.
83: Doesn’t care about retractable votes, says he won’t use them because they shouldn’t be needed and he’s too lazy to make use of any advantage they may give. Says they make w
olf-spotting harder. Is apathetic about the Changling.
91: More Pokemon. Wants reasoning for Morm’s vote.
Here ends day one…
Day two…
116: Joke about Formy and shorts. Says he notices Durelin (Anti-retractable votes. Pro-random. Good.), Caranlondien (Easily swayed by others. Bad) and Findeasea (Good reasons against Boro. Post 108).
118: Thinks Formy was killed for giving no information so the village can confuse itself, or (less likely) to cast suspicion on Saucy, LMP or Cailin. Suspicious of Spawn and Cailin.
122: Thinks Formy was killed to prevent disruptions.
154: Thinks SpaM is making mistakes that mistakes don’t look good for him. Finds theories about Morm, LMP, Caran and Durelin intersesting, but will ignore it because he doesn’t know who to trust.
156: Summary of events leading to Boromir’s death.
165: Pokemon talk and thinks that SPaM is too tricksey for him to analyze effectively. Thinks Mormy is reluctant to voice worries that keep him on the suspect list.
169: La mort de Boromir, deuxième partie. Neutral towards Tom, but not sure what to think of him.
171: Doesn’t want to jump on minor details to make a case about wolvery because it leads to innocents dying. Defense of views on Caran, Cailin and Morm.
176: Doesn’t think Lommy is a wolf based on her attacks on Boro, suspects spawn a little.
197: Thinks morm is apathetic and unreasonable and that it would be good to kill him whether or not he’s a wolf. Votes for Mormegil.
221: Would be glad to kill SpM for being unfathomable. Not sure what to think of Caran, other than her being easily manipulated. Will consider switching to SpM.
228: Says Findeasea is pathetic for voting Mith (throwaway vote). Is inclined to switch to SpM, but doesn’t want to make a tie.
232: Switches vote to SpM to save Caran.
234: Tells Morm and Nogrod to change their votes to SpM to save Caran.
241: Rhetorical question about losing an innocent SpM versus the Hunter.
243: Would change back to Morm, but Caran would die if he did. Wants to know what Morm finds threatening about him.
249/250: More about voting for SpM/saving Caran.
Here ends day two…
Day three…
286: Thinks Cailin and he are exonerated by their efforts to save Caran.
289: Thinks LMP is innocent because of the certainty with which he started the SpM bandwagon, but will be careful not to listen to him due to LMP’s record of getting innocents lynched.

I find TGWBS rather unsuspicious. While I disagree with his claim that working to save Caran exonerates him - any intelligent wolf would have done the same thing to maintain cover and gain village trust - he says enough reasonable things and has overall behaved honestly enough (I think) that he doesn't really garner much suspicion from me.

Agree with the assessment of LMP. He doesn't strike me as a wolf. Same reasons as TGWBS. Agressively attacking innocent SPM was risky, and my opinion is that LMP would be better at staying undercover as a furry one than to try to get SPM lynched.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I have come to disregard much of what he says simply because he has a knack for accusing innocents and getting them lynched. So, while I maintain that he is innocent, I will be sure not to listen to him.

Thanks for the words of confidence. Funny, your opinion of me is largely the same as mine of SPM. So, do you have a knack, Guy, for accusing wolves and getting them lynched? We shall see this game...

Just an observation: I'm seeing one of those typical skirmishes that we see between two players with markedly different styles: Morm & Lommy are really going after each other. What that usually means, based on my lorebooks, is that both are likely innocent and are strongly reacting to each other. Make of that what you will.

I'm willing to go with the general sense of the village, that Caran is the Hunter; as I said, I think it most likely.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

A very bold move indeed for a wolf, and I have to admit one a wolvish Elempi wouldn't risk.

Good to see you know me. But that doesn't mean I trust you ... yet. You sound innocent, and there are others who seem more wolvish this time....

Originally Posted by Lhuna

But what stands out to me from this flurry of votes are those who seem not to want to get involved in the lynching of two innocents, as we know them now. Actually, that should be singular: Fin's vote for Mith. And yes, admittedly tgwbs presented the idea of it being a throwaway vote right after she cast it, but I just want to bring it up to everyone lest he forgets, because it's really worth noting.

Very true. I've been watching this one and (s)he seems to have all those earmarks that I find most disturbing: playing both sides against the middle, switching or casting suspicious looking votes, such close and careful reasoning in a post that you wonder what is being hidden. And so on.

Lhuna, Morm explained his suspicion of Guy already.

Must run. I have a Festival to go to again, so I must cast my vote now.

++ Findëasëa

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Lommy

What did I do to deserve this?

Whoops, actually I didn't mean to put you under suspicious. I've moved Tom there based on a general feeling of suspiciousness, but now I'll go back and look over his posts more closely.

Not a Likely Werewolf:
Celuien
Nogrod
lmp

Need to be watched, but not quite on my suspect list:
Lhuna
TGWBS
Cailín
Mith
Fin
Lommy

Suspicious:
Tom
morm

Can't read them at all, and therefore suspicious of them:
Fea
Durelin

So right now I'm most suspicious of those last four.

[the guy who be short]

Lhuna, Morm explained his suspicion of Guy already.

I must have amnesia. Either that, or you and morm are both wolves, LMP.

I've done a bit more reading and have come to an unfavourable conclusion of durelin due to long-winded and semi-existant reasoning when voting for SpM, and a positive view of Lhuna for talking a lot of good sense.


IMPORTANT

As I have said before, Caran's proven innocence is of immense importance. We should have used it a lot more today. We must use Caran's decision in lieu of our own because we can all trust her objectivity.

Caran - why do you not trust Tom? I am ambivalent towards him and would welcome your analysis.

Also, whom do you suspect the most? You should take charge today because we probably only have you for a day. I'm happy to change my vote to Fea or durelin and probably will be to change it to Tom given a little reasoning.

[Findëasëa]

Fin - That throwaway vote. Explain it.

I did what I honestly thought was right. I was planning on voting for Mith, after working on analysis of her she seemed most suspicious. When I was able to get to the village, I saw that Caran had 5 votes and SPM had 4. I considered voting for SPM, because I was convinced of Caran’s innocence, and his blatant attack on her seemed out of place. I did not vote for him in the end because I was not convinced of his guilt on this alone. I did not feel comfortable voting for either one of these players. It would have been easy to echo the arguments of other players and place a vote for SPM, but instead I made an argument, which I still feel is a valid one, and voted for the person I found most suspicious. I do not think my vote was a throwaway, and I would make the same choice again.

[Thinlómien]

Day 1
#12 - Says he's glad to see Kath dead and jokes about ww-meat.
#86 - Says he's in a hurry and he has a lot to catch up; votes TGWBS. Reason:

Man it feels good to have you back! You can be a Kath replacement .

Day 2
#133 - Suspects Cara (says she's nervous, reacts but not too strongly to accusations, tries to divert suspicion) and votes her.
#157 - Says he's catching up, confirms LMP's werewolf weariness comment. Says Thinlómien tries to grasp any straw that is moderately suspicious and claims she intentionally misunderstood SPM and twisted his words. Names Thinlómien, Cara and TGWBS as his top suspects, but gives no reasoning. Explains his absence.
#233 - Explains his RL hurries.
#239 - Quotes TGWBS:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Morm - Caran is the hunter. Change your vote to SpM to save her, unless you don't believe her.
Nogrod - You can't get morm now. You too should change your vote.

and says comments like that are the base of his suspicions of him.

Day 3
#261 - Is back, explains his ww weariness and his reasons to be in the game mainly being only that Kath is modding. Sums up general impressions. Suspects Cailín, TGWBS, Thinlómien and Durelin. Doesn't suspect Mith, Fea, Nogrod and Celuien.
#268 - Claims that if he was a wolf, no one would be suspecting him. Suspects Thinlómien and says she does a remarkable job at picking flavour of the day.
#275 - Analyses Thinlómien. Accuses her of twisting SPM's words, not understanding him, giving weak reasoning on Boromir-vote, voting morm because of playing style and "taking path of least resistance".

Conclusions up in a minute, and a few responses to him on passages I felt uneasy about...