Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Caranlondien]

My goodness. I can't believe I'm not dead... I guess the wolves assumed the Ranger would protect me last Night? Or perhaps I am leading the village completely astray? Or maybe they thought they knew whom I hunted last Night, and it was a wolf.

Having thought I would be dead toDay, I don't really have any thoughts yet. Allow me to get my wits about me, and I'll try to be helpful.

EDIT: cross-posted with mormegil

[Celuien]

I'm sorry that Fea didn't turn out to be the Changling. Now that such a high percentage of the village is gifted or wolvish, s/he can have a far greater impact, and not necessarily to the village's good.

I'm inclined to trust Morm and Nogrod after the business with Fea. We were thinking terribly alike yesterday, and that little flurry was a very exposed place to be.
Known innocent:
Caran

Those I trust, or want to:
Celuien (if I can't trust myself, who can I trust )
Nogrod
morm
lmp
Cailín
Mith

Those I'm unsure of/can't read:
Lhuna
Tom
Lommy

Those who are looking suspicious:
TGWBS (yes, I know I thought he was innocent yesterday, but I've done some rethinking)
Durelin (Especially after her throwaway vote for me)

Will return later with more reasoning.

[Durelin]

Well, that was insane. Two more villagers down... Still, we've been lucky: we haven't lost any gifteds yet. Well...I guess it might not be lucky that the changeling is still around.

I guess the wolves assumed the Ranger would protect me last Night?

It's quite possible. And I suppose there's no reason to risk it when they are guaranteed someone else's death...and it seems we've all been on the wrong track, anyway.

What if we try to uncover the changeling? It's possible that they would be able to help, if they picked a wolf at any point. Does whoever is picked by the changeling know that they have been picked? Because if anyone who has been picked by the Changeling and isn't dead would be willing to honestly say that they were picked, then maybe we could draw some kind of connections and trace them back to the changeling? Probably not... Probably too many dead now, and who's to say anyone will be honest? That's just another chance for the wolves to lead us villagers on the wrong trail. *sighs*

Well, we'll see what toDay brings...

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Caran

Or maybe they thought they knew whom I hunted last Night, and it was a wolf.

That would be my guess. Otherwise, I'd have expected them to kill the one person here whom the village is pretty sure about trusting.

[Nogrod]

I must say that I share Morm's confusion. I was also sure that Fea was the Changeling - and I still hoped for the "mass-revelation" stuff to happen. Obviously I was wrong...

Caran: I'm not sure about this, but maybe you should share the name of the one you were hunting last night? That could help us figure out the situation. But maybe someone else should also think about this one, for the idea just popped into my mind, and I haven't had time to think whether there are any risks involved. I think not, but at this stage of the game we should be careful (the killed list is just innocent after innocent and I don't like the look of it at all).

EDIT: X-posted with the last three

[Durelin]

Otherwise, I'd have expected them to kill the one person here whom the village is pretty sure about trusting.

Which is exactly what the Ranger would have expected, right? I mean, when you have one person that everyone practically knows is innocent, why not protect them, especially when no one seems to know anything else. If Caran had been killed, then we would be totally in the dark. If we aren't already.

But anyway...enough with that. Caran's still alive. That's all that matters.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Durelin

What if we try to uncover the changeling? It's possible that they would be able to help, if they picked a wolf at any point....

Originally Posted by Village charter, Section 9, Paragraph 3

Changeling - They cannot choose the same person until 2 Night's has passed, and they cannot reveal anything they have learned about people's roles at Night, but while in posession of a Gift (be it good or evil) they are on that teams side.

However, I believe hints are allowed.

[Durelin]

Hmm...

Thank you very much for that, Celuien!

[Caranlondien]

I shan't be revealing whom I hunted last Night. The wolves know I can't hunt the same person two Nights in a row, and if I tell them I hunted ____ last night and it's the wolf they thought I'd be hunting, they'll know it's safe (well, safer) to go after me toNight.

In any case, I don't know anything more than you guys, so knowing whom I hunted won't help you. I would appreciate, however, your opinions on whom it looked like I was going to hunt. Think from the perspective of a wolf. Knowing what they thought could help me in future decisions.

[Celuien]

You're quite welcome.

Here's information from the village charter on all things Changling.

[Nogrod]

Thanks Caran.

I had totally forgotten that rule of not being able to pick the same person two days in a row. It's good that you have brains when mine fail...

[Celuien]

If I were a wolf, I'd take a look at your non-List-of-Doom from yesterday:

morm
TGWBS
Feanor
Durelin

Feanor was already gone. You voted for morm - I wouldn't think you'd obvious enough to hunt the same person you voted for during the day.

Leaving - guess what - my two main suspects. Durelin and TGWBS.

I'm not sure if this is too obvious, though. They might have been looking at something more subtle in your suspicions. But it's a possibility.

[Durelin]

I'm not sure if this is too obvious, though. They might have been looking at something more subtle in your suspicions. But it's a possibility.

It certainly is, but I'm wondering why everyone is assuming that the wolves just somehow knew who Caran Hunted last night. Could someone explain? If I'm missing something, then shame on me, and please, feel free to slap me...

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I'm wondering why everyone is assuming that the wolves just somehow knew who Caran Hunted last night

I, at least, never said I thought they knew who I hunted last Night. What I think is that they thought they knew who I hunted. I'd still like to hear thoughts on this, but the more important item on our agenda toDay is to lynch a wolf...

Lhuna - Need to hear more from her... curse that Timezone-itis!
Cailín - Since she won't be here toDay, I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for now.
Celuien - I still think she's innocent.
TGWBS - Looking a bit wolvish...
Lommy - Need to take another look at her... not sure.
Nogrod - Still looks normal to me.
lmp - Another one we need to take another look at. Fin analyzed him yesterDay, and said she still thought him suspicious, but less so than she had before she analyzed him...
Tom - Doesn't look very wolvish to me, but it's hard to tell with a newbie.
Mith - Not looking too wolvish.
morm - Can't read him at all. Really.
Durelin - Looks a bit wolvish.

So, right now, at least, I'm least suspicious of Cailín, Celuien, and Nogrod.

I want to hear more from Lhuna, Lommy, Tom, Mith, and Durelin.

And I want to keep my eye on TGWBS, lmp, and morm (all of whom I'm sure we'll be hearing plenty from, whether I ask or not ).

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Durelin

It certainly is, but I'm wondering why everyone is assuming that the wolves just somehow knew who Caran Hunted last night. Could someone explain? If I'm missing something, then shame on me, and please, feel free to slap me...

What Caran said. It's not that I'm saying they knew who was hunted (how could they?), but Caran's choice was a consideration that had to enter into the wolves' discussion. It would be foolhardy to kill the hunter if there was a good chance she was going to hunt one of the wolf pack. They had to at least think about her target or they'd be stupid. And given that all three are still alive, I doubt that they're dumb.

[Durelin]

Sorry, just noticed this:

Durelin (Especially after her throwaway vote for me)

Out of curiosity, what vote would have made me seem less wolfish?

Edit: Cross-posted with Celuien. Sorry guys, you just seemed rather sure. But yeah, I know exploring the possibilities. I guess I'm just a skeptic...well, not purely, obviously...

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Out of curiosity, what vote would have made me seem less wolfish?

Well, I'm not really sure. And if you are a wolf, I'm certainly not going to give you a guidebook on how to quell suspicion. I do, however, recall a time when a wolf by the name of Roa attacked my ancestor quite strongly during the day after I began to suspect her. You're not one of her relatives, but the behavior is similar, and it's continuing to make me nervous.

EDIT: Crossed with Durelin's edit.

[Thinlómien]

Well, Fin is dead. I think the wolves thought her to be the seer, so I think someone should go through her posts and see who she suspected. That might help us.
I think no one really did that with spawn, so her suspects could be checked also.
I can do either of them, but not both.

Now, Cara, I can see two options who you hunted: someone you mentioned being suspicious, but who was not on your list of doom yesterday. Like LMP or me, for example. Or maybe Lhuna or Tom. That would be something the wolves wouldn't quite expect, but you would still use your hunt on someone you don't trust. The other option is the obvious one, that you went after morm, TGWBS or Durelin. I guess I would think the same as a wolf, but my guilty conscience would maybe emphasize the option which has me or my fellow wolves on it.

[Nogrod]

After Caran told me that she could not Hunt the same person two Nights in a row, I was a bit baffled - and in the end went checking for the actual ruling. Well I didn't find it from anywhere (no wonder I couldn't remember it). Then I started to wonder about another thing concerning the rules. I have copied below our latest death-toll and bolded some parts of it.

Night 1 ~ Kath, killed by a turtle in an aerial attack ~ Innocent.
Day 1 ~ Boromir, lynched by the villagers by means of lions ~ Innocent.
Night 2 ~ Formendacil, killed by a coyote and it's trickery ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Saucepan Man, lynched by the villagers by means of a platypus catapault ~ Innocent.
Day 2 ~ Nilpaurion Felagund, killed by an emerging alter-ego ~ Innocent.
Night 3 ~ dancing spawn of ungoliant ~ Innocent.
Day 3 ~ Feanor of the Peredhil, killed by a chat skwerl ~ Innocent.
Night 4 ~ Findëasëa ~ Innocent

Looks grim. Yes. But has it been told anywhere, whether the roles of those who are dead will be revealed? If there is a possibility that behind the word innocent might lie something like "the Seer", the Ranger", this would look even more grim than it looks right now. And surely we should look at the game bit differently then.

So please Kath, could you come down to inform us on these matters? Or if anyone else is knowledgeable of these rulings (so they have been somewhere but I just didn't manage to locate them), please share your knowledge.

Feeling quite stupid if they were common knowledge - as I also seemed to have been the only one who thought that 11PM GMT (not BST) is the deadline...

[Kath]

The roles of the dead will be revealed. All those that have died so far have been ordinary villagers.

And Caran is right, the Hunter cannot protect the same person two Nights running.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Feeling quite stupid if they were common knowledge - as I also seemed to have been the only one who thought that 11PM GMT (not BST) is the deadline...

You weren't. Hence my deadline confusion on the first day.

[Durelin]

Well, I'm not really sure. And if you are a wolf, I'm certainly not going to give you a guidebook on how to quell suspicion. I do, however, recall a time when a wolf by the name of Roa attacked my ancestor quite strongly during the day after I began to suspect her. You're not one of her relatives, but the behavior is similar, and it's continuing to make me nervous.

Do you think I would risk voting for you after you have been suspicious of me if I really was a wolf? But really...I find it interesting that you call my suspicions of you an 'attack.' It's really rather amusing to me that I'm the one who's been called 'overly defensive.'

I'm certainly not going to give you a guidebook on how to quell suspicion.

So is it guilty until proven innocent? I kid, I kid...

Anyway... What was the driving force behind the Fea lynch yesterday? Simply the chance that she might be the changling and wanted to help us? Did she really even want to help us at all? Or is a suicidal villager not worth worrying about at all? I guess not.

Edit:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Caran: I'm not sure about this, but maybe you should share the name of the one you were hunting last night? That could help us figure out the situation. But maybe someone else should also think about this one, for the idea just popped into my mind, and I haven't had time to think whether there are any risks involved. I think not, but at this stage of the game we should be careful (the killed list is just innocent after innocent and I don't like the look of it at all).

A wolfish plot?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

One thing is certain, Fea though Durelin to be a wolf. I do too and still hold that TGWBS is too.

Why do you think these two are werewolves?

Originally Posted by Celuien

Those who are looking suspicious:
TGWBS (yes, I know I thought he was innocent yesterday, but I've done some rethinking)
Durelin (Especially after her throwaway vote for me)

Please explain your thinking on TGWBS. On Durelin, that vote post seems the most supicious thing I've seen all game, except for what I saw from Fin, who it turns out is innocent (drat those cagey wolves!). But I'm not convinced. I can't help thinking that the werewolves are doing an incredibly successful job of hiding out in the open this game. I haven't been able to peg anything on anybody, and it looks much the same with the rest of you. Most disconcerting.

Ah. Here's another one: Durelin is trying to "out" the Changeling. Does that seem like something a werewolf would want in a worse way than an ordo?

Originally Posted by Durelin

It certainly is, but I'm wondering why everyone is assuming that the wolves just somehow knew who Caran Hunted last night. Could someone explain?

Yet another wolvish looking statement. Or am I trumping up non-evidence as evidence?

Originally Posted by Durelin

Out of curiosity, what vote would have made me seem less wolfish?

She can't help herself. Werewolvishness that can't help outing itself.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, Fin is dead. I think the wolves thought her to be the seer, so I think someone should go through her posts and see who she suspected.

Lommy, you just went RED FLAG on my radar. First off, you're doing the classic "I think the wolves thought", which by itself is not as strong a piece of evidence as one might hope, but then this: Fin suspected me, and you know it, and to suggest that we see who she suspected without naming me, is very, very sneaky. Now I wish I could arrange a double lynch, as I suddenly have two strong candidates.

Originally Posted by Durelin

To Celuien: Do you think I would risk voting for you after you have been suspicious of me if I really was a wolf?

I do. You're more than capable of the double bluff.

And this last bit about writing off the importance of Fea's plan: if you're the werewolf I think you are, you must be afraid of what it revealed. Otherwise, this post is far too blithe. Were you an innocent, you would be posting earnestly like the rest of us desperate ordos, but instead you're exhibiting your cheerful confidence that you, a werewolf, are so far winning the game. Well, that's about to end as of toDay, I hope.

By the way, I know it seems like I'm awfully confident of what I'm saying. I always come across that way, so I wouldn't make too much of it if I were you, fellow ordos. It's just the way I play this game.

And now for my retractable vote:

++ DURELIN

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Elempi

Please explain your thinking on TGWBS.

Sure thing, though in abbreviated form as I need to go to the ketchup farm in the morning:

Case TGWBS
1. Too much Pokemon.
2. Almost insisting that we give control of the voting to Caran yesterday. Argument has been made by Mormegil and I forget who else. I think Caran pointed out the problems with that idea as well. Anyway, it seems like an idea that gives wolves a place to hide. Also is a convenient way to ally with the known innocent and look less suspicious by association.

However, point 2 could also be legitimate strategizing. It makes me uneasy, but I keep wavering. Especially since Durelin looks a whole lot more suspicious to me, even though I included both her and The Guy on my possible wolf list.

[mormegil]

After his last post I wouldn't put it past LMP to be the third wolf. It might be a bit of a stretch but think about it, the wolves (TGWBS, LMP, and Durelin) know that most likely Durelin would die today anyway so why not take the initiative away from us and do it themselves. He casts suspicion on a real wolf and equal suspicion on a likely innocent.

[Nogrod]

Well, I started working with this look at Durelin yesterDay when the whole Fea-craze began. Now I have finished it and here it comes.

Durelin

Nothing open, nothing clear – that could have been guessed anyway already beforehand. So every single item in this list is as itself not a proof or heavy enough to make Durelin more suspicious than anyone else here, but the wealth of them make me suspect her. But I must make a reservation: I have never played with Durelin before, so I don’t know what is her normal playing style eg. whether these kinds of things are the norm with her.

- Her first Day was full of the teamwork-stuff. As someone already noted, the wolves are the only ones able to think with that mindset. Every innocent or gifted knows that you basically can’t trust anyone. I do think myself that as the game goes on, it’s always an asset to find people to trust – and kind of make it a teamwork. But that’s possible only after you have some grounds to trust someone. Calling for teamplay on Day1 sounds pretty misguided and misleading.

- Then there are a couple of oddities. In #94 she says when defending her vote on Spm:

And in discordance with my belief, this Man stands in the way of the teamwork mindset I'm looking for.
Plus...a threesome-vote is like teamwork...right?

And on the next Day she makes something like an overview on those who have gained votes so far on #217:

Durelin...definitely a wolf.

I have seen wolves doing just this before. It would seem to be far too reckless from a wolf to come up with both of these, but then again we should remember “the bluff – double bluff” –thing too. If we have an intelligent wolf, s/he would probably love to make this “Do you really think I’m that stupid?” –argument.

- Then she seems to be somewhat “overly defencive” as some people have noted. She has gathered suspicion, and I somewhat understand her defencive posting, but still she seems to be somewhat jumpy on these issues. Or what do you think for instance calling two votes a bandwagon against her (#106) or starting a post with saying that she feels no real need to defend herself – and then go on doing just that and over-emphasizing her innocence “And trust me, finding out the SPM was innocent was a real blow for me.” (#263)?

- Her suspicions and votes seem a bit suspicious too, even though most of us have had bad hunches in this game so far (otherwise we would have already caught a wolf or two). So on Day1 she suspects Boro and retracts her nonsense vote on Spm (trying to get him lynched early in the game already?) to vote tom just before the voting is called off. And she had just been ranting all Day how changing votes is bad! On Day2 she comes up with a theory where Spm defended Boro to make himself look good (quite nice theory, I admit, but one that a wolf might make easily). And she votes for Spm. On Day3 she tries to start a case against Celuien (who at least to my eyes seem to be one of the few villagers I tend to trust for now), and she has continued her open suspicions on Celuien up to this date. On Day3 she also voted for Celuien So she has been after Boro (good player, innocent, dead), Spm (good player, innocent, dead) and Celuien (good player, innocent?, ...).

I'm not so suspicious about Durelin as I was when I based my thoughts merely on second hand evaluations, but surely she is topping my list after tgwbs. That's kind of sad, but at least I don't seem to have another clue yet. Hopefully we can come up with some really good ideas before the Day is at an end.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

After his last post I wouldn't put it past LMP to be the third wolf. It might be a bit of a stretch but think about it, the wolves (TGWBS, LMP, and Durelin) know that most likely Durelin would die today anyway so why not take the initiative away from us and do it themselves. He casts suspicion on a real wolf and equal suspicion on a likely innocent.

Elempi really doesn't seem suspicious to me, but I have a feeling he would be awfully good at deflecting suspicion as a wolf. *shrugs* Don't know. What, other than the suspicion casting, makes you suspect him?

That said, time for a vote. I don't know how busy tomorrow is going to be.

++ DURELIN

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Elempi
Please explain your thinking on TGWBS.

Nogrod #322
His eagerness to show his innocence (by overstressing the importance of the revealed Hunter) and the suggestion for us all vote on the basis of the list where he (most probably) would not be, seem quite suspicious to me.

These are the latest - when I have looked at his posting.

[Caranlondien]

lmp, I don't know whether to agree with you whole-heartedly or shrink back and shout "Wolf!"... But then, I never do.

Two early votes for Durelin, and one analysis saying she's not as suspicious as she looks initially, but she's still one of the most suspicious people here. Fascinating (another Star Trek fan here, and I thought of Odo, too when I read Fea's posts yesterDay )

It has occurred to me that we should look at people who began to contribute to the bit of suspicion that surrounded Fin. To be honest, I thought she was the Seer, which is why I mentioned her as looking a little suspicious to me - I didn't want the wolves to kill her. It seems they may already have been thinking along the same lines.

Of course, I was one of those people saying she looked suspicious, and I'm the hunter, so it's hardly a stamp on one's death warrant. But it's worth looking at, anyway. Before I mentioned her, she was on everyone's "Probably Innocent" lists. After that, she started appearing on the "Wolvish" lists. Are we all so easily swayed as I am?

[Celuien]

Forgot that point about TGWBS's Hunter saving claims. Thanks for reminding me, Nogrod.

Originally Posted by Me, #291

...I disagree with his claim that working to save Caran exonerates him - any intelligent wolf would have done the same thing to maintain cover and gain village trust...

Originally posted as the one thing that looked suspicious in an otherwise innocent looking analysis. Now I'm not so sure.

I'm really leaving this time.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

After his last post I wouldn't put it past LMP to be the third wolf. It might be a bit of a stretch but think about it, the wolves (TGWBS, LMP, and Durelin) know that most likely Durelin would die today anyway so why not take the initiative away from us and do it themselves. He casts suspicion on a real wolf and equal suspicion on a likely innocent.

I can't say as I blame you for leaving no stone unturned as we need to find the werewolves fast. So I see your point. However, I confess myself an ordo. By all means, analyze my posts and compare them with others you also find suspicious, and make the choice you deem most wise. Unless, of course, you're throwing my name up, Morm, because you have something furry to hide.... (half closes eyes and looks most suspiciously for the first time this game (admittedly) at Morm....)

[Lhunardawen]

I'm completely relieved to find you yet alive, Caran. With all these distressing events it's nice to have someone to trust - even if you probably know only just as much as we do now.

There's another probable explanation to why you haven't been killed: the wolves would rather risk killing a possible gifted, in this case Fin. Perhaps they thought her to be the Seer or the Changeling, which can sort of explain why she seemed too careful. In a village in history (Werewolf XVIII) a Fool named Formendacil was left alive by the wolves, who went instead for the unknown morm (I think) who turned out to be the Hunter (again, I think). No offense, but like the Fool, you're practically just a simple ordo in life since your gift only comes out in your death.

I'll be reading Fin's last posts to see if there's anything that might have triggered her killing and will be back with it, also with new thoughts on some rather elusive villagers.

But before I do, let me say that my suspect list is now composed of Durelin, tgwbs, and Mith to some extent...perhaps there's reason for me to doubt her sincere-seeming outburst yesterDay.

[mormegil]

Oh that I were the seer and could proclaim that I know that LMP and TGWBS are wolves but I cannot I can only speculate. I must say I've kept this suspicion quiet for a while but now the time it ripe to vocalize it. I've been suspicious of LMP for quite some time now but wanted to keep going under the guise that I trusted him for my plan to lay full. I cannot currently cite posts or make a traditional case. Let's call it a general impression, or gut feeling. His behavior pattern has seemed very parallel to what a wolf would do. He's been vocal enough and accusatory enough to draw sufficient attention to not be accused of that prosaic pharse 'flying under the radar'. He has been bold enough to not be accused of being timid but he's always kept just in the background enough to escape unwanted attention. He's tried to attach himself to some innocent, me included, and he then seems rather altrustic in his response to me but quickly attempt to turn the tables on me and make me the suspicious one.

++LMP

Though TGWBS and Durelin are great candidates as well as I think both them to be wolves.

[Lhunardawen]

I still think that Fin was an interesting choice for a kill last Night since she just started to pick up some suspicions after being practically unnoticed (at least by me) beforehand. The wolves might have thought she was deliberately trying to be a bit suspicious to avoid being killed by Night - and if that was what she did and she was indeed gifted it would have terribly backfired.

The only people she has mentioned yesterDay were Lhuna, Elempi, tom, morm, and tgwbs.

Lhuna - was cautious of her but sees no real reason to suspect her
Elempi - was still suspicious to her, but much less so than before
tom - did not share Caran's suspicions of him
morm - a bit suspicious, but not enough to warrant a vote
tgwbs - her vote

She no longer mentioned Mith, her vote the previous Night, who practically dropped from all our suspicious lists yesterDay.

I guess this makes tgwbs look the worst, if he panicked and thought she was the Seer - after all if I'm not mistaken she was the only one to vote for him yesterDay after morm retracted his vote. But would a wolvish tgwbs risk that? He might.

Speaking of wolvish tgwbs, he tops my suspicion list toDay. That whole issue about giving Caran complete trust with regards to voting reeks of lycanthropy in that he was practically leaving everything in her hands. Also, he seemed the one most concerned that Caran might die that Night, and now we find that she hasn't. A hands-cleaning bluff if I ever saw one.

Now Mith...Mith is a tricky one. This constant exchange of trust between her and morm is partly encouraging in that they might both be gifteds, and partly scary in that they might be wolves engaging in a bold bluff (so I guess I should bring morm back to my suspicions list).

So here's my current list:

Innocent, duh
Caran

Seems innocent
Celuien
Nogrod
Elempi
Cailín

Plain confusing/I don't know
tom
Lommy

Uh-oh
tgwbs
Durelin
Mith
morm

Seems I haven't much time to spare as I thought I have, so here goes:

++THE GUY WHO BE SHORT

I'm sorry if I'm not around as much as you want me, but you can blame Ar-Pharazon for the timezones. Please feel free to voice out any suspicions you might have of me even if you don't think I can answer them toDay, because there's always hope for another Day...

[mormegil]

I guess this makes tgwbs look the worst, if he panicked and thought she was the Seer - after all if I'm not mistaken she was the only one to vote for him yesterDay after morm retracted his vote. But would a wolvish tgwbs risk that? He might.

Generally if the wolves feel they know the seer they will attack him no matter what. It's worth loosing one of their own, especially when they have three, to get rid of their greatest foe. At this stage of the game that reasoning is completely valid though I'm uncertain of it's merit as it's obvious the wolves have no idea who the real seer is.

[Caranlondien]

Just by general impressions, without having done any real analysis, lmp and tgwbs are at the top of my suspect list right now. I remember, however, that yesterDay Fin did an analysis of lmp, and she said that by the end she wasn't as suspicious of him as she had previously been.

Originally Posted by morm

Generally if the wolves feel they know the seer they will attack him no matter what.

Agreed. It's definitely worth looking at why people might have been killed. But I tend to think the wolves thought Fin was the Seer because of her change in opinion of Mith.

Now Lhuna's posts toDay have been comforting... She looks pretty innocent. And her analysis of Fin looks helpful. Fin's dropping Mith as a suspect might indicate Mith is innocent, as the wolves may have thought Fin dreamt of her the Night before.

I desperately need some sleep. I'll be back well before deadline, though.

Voting Update
lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1)
Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2)
mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1)
Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1)

[Thinlómien]

I quickly read through Fin's posting and I found two reasons why the wolves mighthave thought her the seer (besides the Mith-reason Cara presented):
- She changed her opinion of LMP too. This was done by a subtler way, an analysis.
- On Day 2 she stepped to Cara's (who we now know to be our hunter) defense and said a bit later that she was convinced Cara's innocence. Maybe the wolves thought her to be the seer and that she had dreamed of Cara.

My thoughts on everyone in the village:
Lhuna - feels pretty innocent to me. I can't think of nything very suspicious in her.
Cailín - difficult to read, but I'd say she's innocent
Celuien - feels very innocent to me. Doesn't make me alarmed in any sense.
TGWBS - suspicious, but I'd still hesitate to vote him because I fear he might just be innocent again
Lommy - innocent
Nogrod - I don't find anything particularly suspicious in him.
lmp - I think Fin's death might point to his innocence. I can't see anything very suspicious in him in other ways either.
Tom - not sure what to think of him. Makes good points, but I'm not sure if I can trust him.
Caran - hunter and innocent, o'course
Mith - Her RL-based defense was quite convincing, but her SPM-arguments and u-turn on Day 2 (?) still look a bit bad.
morm - I'm still wary of him, though he makes more sense day after day. His post #268 still troubles me.
Durelin - might be an innocent as well as a wolf. She's just plain confusing. I would hesitate to vote her without a good reason.

Now, toDay we should catch a wolf. Really. Otherwise we're in a big bad trouble later on.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Oh that I were the seer and could proclaim that I know that LMP and TGWBS are wolves but I cannot I can only speculate. I must say I've kept this suspicion quiet for a while but now the time it ripe to vocalize it. I've been suspicious of LMP for quite some time now but wanted to keep going under the guise that I trusted him for my plan to lay full. I cannot currently cite posts or make a traditional case. Let's call it a general impression, or gut feeling.

Ah. I see how it is. So that leaves me trying to determine whether you're honestly mistaken or a werewolf trumping up a case. All I ask is that you compare my posts, in substance, to those of Durelin. Who is acting more like a werewolf? Obviously, you could object that it's one werewolf trying to look good at the expense of another. And maybe if I were one I might play that way. That's about the best answer I can give you, Morm, and shall in the meantime concentrate on trying to help my fell ordos extricate the werewolves (you?) from their cynical silence.

However, I find myself pretty convinced of the innocence of Morm, Mith, Celuien, & Lhuna. Largely because there's an intermingling of trust between these four already, their posts have been mutually supporting, and they ring true (except about me, Morm).

EDIT: Okay, Lommy isn't using Fin's analysis the way I suspected she might. So my suspicions of her are relaxed. Oh, one more likely innocent: Nogrod; which leaves my list of suspicious characters rather small: Durelin, tom, Guy. Cailin I can't say much about and so won't.

[the guy who be short]

If I had time for an indignant response, be sure that I would post one. As it is, what time I do have must be spent on productive activities, not destructive ones, especially as my only suspect died in the night.

I don't see that any good points have been made against me so far. All of this "mounting suspicion" seems unwilling to base itself on fact, or at least on objective fact. Here I outline the very few points brought against me.

Originally Posted by Celuien

Case TGWBS
1. Too much Pokemon.
2. Almost insisting that we give control of the voting to Caran yesterday. Argument has been made by Mormegil and I forget who else. I think Caran pointed out the problems with that idea as well. Anyway, it seems like an idea that gives wolves a place to hide. Also is a convenient way to ally with the known innocent and look less suspicious by association.

It's notable that 50% of my suspicion comes from liking pokémon. Never mind all the other analysis and substance that goes with it - the pokémon is condemning! I see.

To those who have vocally opposed the idea of giving Caran power - Nogrod, morm, now Celuien - I do not claim to understand you. Perhaps you are merely weak or obstinate. Perhaps you are wolves.

An objective shortlist eliminates lupine autonomy. It narrows votes into a field small enough to make lupine influence much less significant - With four people to choose from, each one would receive an average of three or four votes. All the wolves voting for one of the candidates, were they stupid enough to do so, would not unduly influence the innocents, as three votes for one person would be entirely expected.

To all those claiming "good points" have been made about how wolves could "manipulate" the shortlist - I bid you make them. I have not heard them. All I find is vague mentionings of "easy manipulation" with no description. Perhaps there is something I have overlooked, in which case I will not be afraid to admit it. But first, you must clarify what you mean.

The third and final point that had been levied against me:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

His eagerness to show his innocence (by overstressing the importance of the revealed Hunter) and the suggestion for us all vote on the basis of the list where he (most probably) would not be, seem quite suspicious to me.

Is simply a variation of the above, with one addition sentence, which is that I eagerly show my innocence. A wolf would not try to save the Hunter. The Hunter is dangerous, and gets increasingly dangerous for wolves as the village gets smaller. A wolf would pretend not to be online and let the Hunter die, lynched and taking nobody with them. People who cannot see this are irrational.



On a separate note, I think I will vote

++LHUNA

Because innocents don't go around naming their gifteds, especially at this stage in the game.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Oh, I might as well come out with it. Can't help the wolves if I talk about my theory because it's wrong. I thought Fea was implying that she's the Changling and wanted us to lynch her not only to limit the number of villager deaths if she wound up being auto-eliminated but also to prevent her joining the wolf team and losing the game for the village that way. But I'm wrong.

That doesn't make sense. How would Fea joining the wolves for one Night cause the village to lose?

You've moved into my suspicious list, Celuien. You go with the flow. Yesterday you were all for lynching Durelin and still are. Today, now that the momentum is here, no doubt with lupine influence, you suddenly display an interest in lynching me. Yesterday I was one of your innocents. On day two, you voted Caran at the height of her vote garnering.

You seem more suspicious that Lhuna, actually. She could just be an innocent - I know she's bad at hiding things. And she's spoken sense in the past. You, meanwhile...

--LHUNA

++CELUIEN


You may have noticed I am going after some of the more quiet ones today. I can't suspect morm anymore. He feels innocent - if clueless. Wolves thrive on loud arguments, and morm and I often provide them, getting lynched. Lommy and morm both seem innocent to me now.

Innocent:
Caran

Confident innocent:
Cailín
Mith
morm

Probably innocent:
lmp
Lommy

Possibly innocent:
Durelin
Lhuna

Leaving me with my wolves:
Celuien
Nogrod
Tom

I think the last five will contain two or three of our wolves.