WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by B88

Valier and Eonwe are acting too strange to be evil penguins. I don't think wps would act in this manner in the very early goings of the game.

Haha! Yes but think of the double-bluff implication on that one will you! And don't complain to me if the triple-bluff gets to you. You signed up for this were-penguine expose!

[Naria]

Hi everyone! It's been a really long hard day trying to keep those goats in check. I really don't have too many thoughts on the goings on so far and I'm too tired to care right now. I'll be back on around 11 hours or so from now(CST) with hopefully a clearer head.

[Anguirel]

Oh dear, this is not a very positive situation. The confounded penguins seem to have something against minstrels.

Right. Just to be on the safe side, I'm not touching my lute or my flute till those acccursed creatures are all unmasked. And frankly, I don't care if that makes me even less canonical.

So far...

I always like an opportunity to pick a fight with the phantom. Sadly, his two posts so far have been eminently sensible. Penguins are evil and the cobbler will probably try and seem intelligent-unless they're in the more direct suicidal mode. All the same, o kin of Turgon, I do not trust thee. With you it's assuredly guilty till proven innocent.

Eonwe's contribution is slight but to be fair he's low on material at that point.

Diamond, were she not Dimwe Diamond and entitled to a little...skittling, would be still more worrying than she already is.

Valier's behaviour is normal and not that suspicious.

Boromir's first post seems to deliver little helpful thought, but he sometimes takes a while to get into his stride. The last time I accused him on a Day One he turned out to be a Ranger. And his second post is much better.

Firefoot's proposed course of action is the one I shall probably adopt, headless chickenery and all. With Boromir and the phantom she's one I'd fear most as a penguin, but that's no real basis for lynching. Yet.

[the phantom]

We don't need to worry about the Cobbler. We're going to lynch a couple non-WPs during this little adventure, and the WPs are going to be killing non-WPs (obviously) every night, so there's a decent chance that the Cob will bite the dust without any effort on our part.

Not to mention the fact that he counts as a villager in the tally, so he helps us in that way.

Originally Posted by Footie

Concerning the cobbler: the cobbler is only bad if s/he survives to the point where there are an equal number of villagers and WP's excluding the cobbler. That's bad.

Well yeah, but if that situation comes up a clever villager could preempt the WPs and step forward and claim to be a WP and demand that the Cobbler vote with him. Then perhaps a real WP would step forward to contest the claim? Then it would be up to the Cobbler to decide who was the real WP.

Even if the Cob is the tie-breaking vote, he might not necessarily vote the right way- that is if the remaining villagers are also pretending to be WPs.

Am I explaining that well? I'm really sleepy, so sorry if everything I say is muddled.

Originally Posted by Jenn

How do you know the penguins are evil? I think he must be one of them.

I already explained my logic dearie. Flightless birds are not natural- they border on sickening in my mind. I think they are the handiwork of Melkor, and therefore they are evil.

Anyway, I'll say more later on in the day.

For now, Seer- don't you dare hint about last night's dream in such a way that is recognizable! Wait until at least tomorrow before dropping hints, and try to keep them subtle.

I would recommend that everyone drop a hint of innocence about a fellow villager or two in the following days as if you were the Seer and had dreamed that person innocent. That should make it easier for the Seer to hide.

Giving hints about guilt won't be as good a cover for the Seer, because with these odds it is likely you will hint at the guilt of a non-WP, and so the WPs will quickly cross you off the list of possible Seers.

Oh, and before I go- Spawn is a WP. But she's too pretty for me to vote for right now.

I'll be back later.

[Macalaure]

Now the phantom scares me.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well yeah, but if that situation comes up a clever villager could preempt the WPs and step forward and claim to be a WP and demand that the Cobbler vote with him. Then perhaps a real WP would step forward to contest the claim? Then it would be up to the Cobbler to decide who was the real WP.

Even if the Cob is the tie-breaking vote, he might not necessarily vote the right way- that is if the remaining villagers are also pretending to be WPs.

In which case he is likely to reveal himself. Then all werepenguins will vote for him and win. It's not forbidden to vote for yourself, is it?
And if he's not tie-breaking, no penguin will bother to sacrifice itself to save the cobbler.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I already explained my logic dearie. Flightless birds are not natural- they border on sickening in my mind. I think they are the handiwork of Melkor, and therefore they are evil.

I always thought they were made by Ossë to please the Tele... wait, yes, they are evil.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I would recommend that everyone drop a hint of innocence about a fellow villager or two in the following days as if you were the Seer and had dreamed that person innocent. That should make it easier for the Seer to hide.

This way nobody benefits of the seer. Then it's better if he remains silent about his knowledge at all.
You really are serious about everybody should giving baseless assumptions. Is there an easier way for the werecreatures to hide?

[Anguirel]

Well...Macalaure, about the seer, you have a point and you don't. If the Seer is killed, it will be clear whose hints we should look at-ditto if they reveal themselves. What the phantom's plan will mean is that we won't be able to act on what we suspect is Seerish advice before a death or revelation...but that hampers penguins more badly than it does us. So all in all, I'm sorry to say that the phantom's plan seems pretty good...

Unless he himself is one of our foes and has already spotted a hint, in which case his proposed strategy is hideously ironic. Urrgh.

Anyway, at this stage I'd rather have no hints at all. We shouldn't be too absorbed in our assets-the Gifted Ones will make themselves known at the right time-instead we should have an eye to our insidious enemies.

Incidentally, phantom old chap, are you still into killing Ordinary Elves on Day One to prevent the accidental lynching of a Gifted? I'm not.

[the phantom]

Then all werepenguins will vote for him and win. It's not forbidden to vote for yourself, is it?

I didn't even consider that option. Personally, I don't think a vote for yourself should count. It's absurd.

This way nobody benefits of the seer.

I see there is a certain concept you aren't grasping. We don't want the village to benefit from the Seer's knowledge early on, because frankly, if the Seer is giving obvious enough directions for the village to follow, the WPs will instantly be aware of the Seer and KILL HIM!!

That's the LAST thing we want.

We want the Seer to survive long enough to dream of a WP (or two) and then take the risk of revealing his identity.

Then it's better if he remains silent about his knowledge

Yes, early on anyway.

You really are serious about everybody should giving baseless assumptions.

Well, what else is there? Villagers know nothing! Therefore a villager cannot possibly make a concrete accusation! The best a villager can do is form theories and analyse voting and posting patterns. You can call this "baseless assumptions" if you wish, but it's the best thing we have until we get our hands on some Seer dreams.

The more dreams, the more information we have, and the only way for the Seer to get lots of dreams is for the Seer to remain hidden for a while.

Get it?

Originally Posted by Ang

Incidentally, phantom old chap, are you still into killing Ordinary Elves on Day One to prevent the accidental lynching of a Gifted?

Ha ha ha! That was one of my finest moments, if I may say so. If you recall, that village did not take my Day 1 advice and as a result lynched their own Ranger.

Tsk tsk.... the phantom should always be obeyed.

(gah, I've really got to go to bed now)

[Anguirel]

At least a lynched Ranger leaves a trail of suspicion. A lynched ordinary volunteer is far more grave in that it leaves little apparent room for analysis. (Vide my lynching in WW XII, kind of, though as it turned out the werecreatures were responsible...)

So I would advocate not repeating that particular strategem.

Right. I said I'd be quiet today due to, er, study of Endorian tongues [Latin] and so I am now going to fade off the scene for a bit.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I see there is a certain concept you aren't grasping. We don't want the village to benefit from the Seer's knowledge early on, because frankly, if the Seer is giving obvious enough directions for the village to follow, the WPs will instantly be aware of the Seer and KILL HIM!!

That's the LAST thing we want.

We want the Seer to survive long enough to dream of a WP (or two) and then take the risk of revealing his identity.

I do grasp that concept. What I don't grasp is your idea that everybody should act seerish at the beginning in order to hide the seer. This will cause a lot of fuss in which the werewolves maybe can hide, too.
The seer should just remain quiet about what he knows until he knows enough.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well, what else is there? Villagers know nothing! Therefore a villager cannot possibly make a concrete accusation! The best a villager can do is form theories and analyse voting and posting patterns. You can call this "baseless assumptions" if you wish, but it's the best thing we have until we get our hands on some Seer dreams.

But wouldn't it help to do exactly that in a logical manner, as Roa suggested right away, instead of:

I would recommend that everyone drop a hint of innocence about a fellow villager or two in the following days as if you were the Seer and had dreamed that person innocent.

Just asking.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

What I don't grasp is your idea that everybody should act seerish at the beginning in order to hide the seer. This will cause a lot of fuss in which the werewolves maybe can hide, too.

The only people making a fuss about it right now seems to be you. Usually people make cases to defend and accuse their fellow villagers. A couple of Seerish hints here and there doesn't make the situation for the ordos any different because they know to disregard them while the Seer is still alive and they ponder the analyses, but the WPs won't be able to take advantage of that strategy at any point.

The seer should just remain quiet about what he knows until he knows enough.

That's for the Seer to decide.

But wouldn't it help to do exactly that in a logical manner, as Roa suggested right away, instead of:

Worry not, it's the custom to be as reasonable as possible. The thing is that only the WPs and the Seer in this village know something for sure, but it doesn't stop the rest of us from analysing everything that talks.

Now I'm seriously going.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This way nobody benefits of the seer. Then it's better if he remains silent about his knowledge at all.

I was actually going to suggest something similar to what phantom said. The easiest situation for the ordos is if the Seer can hide themselves among the villagers until they have dreamed of the WPs or many enough villagers in order to guarantee a victory. If we accidentally lynch a couple of innocents along the way because we didn't know who the Seer is, it doesn't matter as long as we can kill every last penguin here.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

In which case he is likely to reveal himself. Then all werepenguins will vote for him and win.

That's true, and it has happened before. Anyway, even though the Cobbler might be able to come up with some mischief even before that, the penguins are our primary target, so let's try to catch them so that we don't get into that kind of a situation at all.

That's it for now. When I return, I hope to have time to take a look at Firefoot and Roa - and sir Anguirel, perhaps.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I would recommend that everyone drop a hint of innocence about a fellow villager or two in the following days as if you were the Seer and had dreamed that person innocent. That should make it easier for the Seer to hide.

This is also a good plan because if a non-gifted villager drops a subtle hint on who they think is guilty and turns out to be correct the penquins may kill him/her thinking they had gotten the real seer. Of course we would lose an innocent in the process, but our seer would be intake.
I think phantom's plan is a good one, but if everyone is dropping hints to mask the real seer we have to remember WP are doing it too. They can hide in hint-dropping as well.

Macalaure=I do grasp that concept. What I don't grasp is your idea that everybody should act seerish at the beginning in order to hide the seer. This will cause a lot of fuss in which the werewolves maybe can hide, too.

Yes they can hide too, but think of it this way. We're all dropping hints, the WP's are picking through random hints trying to find our seer, they kill an innocent, another day begins with random hints, they pick another innocent. If they do end up getting the seer we will have hints to look at, a clever seer can make a dream into a hint that is easily decoded. And if we are in danger of lynching the seer one day, they come forward and reveal what they know. That night if the ranger is alive still he/she protects the seer and we are blessed with one more dream. In any case though the WP's can hide like the seer, the pros of phantom's plan outweigh the cons.

Jenny=If you start speculating on who's gifted I'll be forced to distribute earplugs so the penguin-cursed on this little isle won't be able to hear you.

Thus assuming you know who the three cursed are, because I'm pretty sure you don't have earplugs for the whole village. Embroiderers don't make that much...

Boromir=
Macalaure is just catching onto the game, which means he's one of the most innocent looking ones to me so far. His lack of understanding and his objection to phantom's proposal speaks towards his innocence. There's no reason for penguins to attract that much attention to themselves early in the beginning. Seems like he's your ordinary innocent that is trying to help the village.

I quite agree, though I'm not a fan of him using his newbie status in his first few posts, I think his speaking against phantom's plan speaks highly of him, at least for today.

Anguirel=
Unless he himself is one of our foes and has already spotted a hint, in which case his proposed strategy is hideously ironic.

I don't think it really benefits a WP phantom to make such a suggestion. He could have picked up a hint, but I highly doubt the seer dropped a hint at this point. Boromir said he doubts phantom would be such a double-bluffer, today I'm inclined to believe that. I think it's too early for a WP to give a plan that so endangers their teammates, but of course I've been wrong about these things before. For right now I lean toward phantom being an innocent, though it may change as the days go on.

Spawn=
His first post is a noble attempt to make an analysis with minimal amount of material. Maybe a bit too noble, actually.

I don't really find a lot of suspicions in Anguirel's first post. He's doing what he can with what he's got. I'd be more concerned with Anguirel jumping on phantom's ideas the way he does. He whole-heartdly agrees with phantom's cobbler and seer ideas without (or it seems to me) really giving thought to what might go wrong with them. Anguirel is a bit suspicious to me, but not overly so. I would like to watch him for a bit.

[JennyHallu]

Thus assuming you know who the three cursed are, because I'm pretty sure you don't have earplugs for the whole village. Embroiderers don't make that much...

I'll have to make them from embroidery thread, but luckily my basket seems to have gotten lost with me. *sets to earplug manufacture*

[Macalaure]

Sorry to bore Diamond even more, but


Pros and Cons of Phantom's plan (as I understand it):


pro: The seer will have a good chance to hide from the wolves.

Originally Posted by Boromir

A talented and gifted Seer can effectively stay hidden without having to do this.

Yes, but

pro: If the seer is killed by the wolves nevertheless we always have his list, whatever happens.


con: If everybody has his own "If I was the seer, then"-list, then the wolves can cancel out everybody who has a wrong guess on his list as a possible seer. No good. So the real seer has to mix at least one wrong dream into his list.

con: This plan is likely to handicap and confuse us in the "theories"-section.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

con: If everybody has his own "If I was the seer, then"-list, then the wolves can cancel out everybody who has a wrong guess on his list as a possible seer. No good. So the real seer has to mix at least one wrong dream into his list.

con: This plan is likely to handicap and confuse us in the "theories"-section.

I'm not sure what you're getting at with your cons, Macalaure. At this point the seer has had one dream, any other hints he/she drops will be mere guesses on his/her part. I'm pretty God awful at math, but the chances of a non-gifted innocent villager getting another innocent right in their phony predictions is pretty good, and the WP know who is innocent and guilty so it'll be harder for them to cancel out whose really gifted and who's trying to confuse them. The seer wouldn't have to mix in a wrong dream.
But this is the last I'm going to say on the seer plan because there are more important things to focus on as the day draws on.

[Firefoot]

On Diamond:

In Naria's analysis post, Diamond is the only one that Naria really comes out and says looks innocent to her. Even Valier is basically, "I don't know, but she can be useful." Diamond "is sending up no red flags." Everyone else was somewhere between "I don't know" and "rather suspicious." This definitely caught my eye. I don't know how Naria would normally act, but I think that little idiosyncracies like this would be telling.

In Boro's first anaylsis post, he hardly mentions Diamond at all and says nothing about whether he's supsicious of her. In his much-cited post, she does appear in the same group as Naria, but I wouldn't put it past Boro to do this, I suppose... he might have figured on us guessing he would put wolves in different groups.

Diamond herself has been extremely contributive, but not very controversial in her posts. She tends to have been very fair and even-headed, even light-hearted at times. I have taken this for innocence, but now I'm starting to have doubts. She has posted enough suspicions not to be accused of neutrality, but she tends not to latch on to people, either (I'm not sure that this is really suspicious or not... I suppose that's how I normally play...). But if she were a penguin, it would explain somewhat why she has been so attached to the idea that penguins would come from different lists of Boro's.

[Anguirel]

Ah, fair ladies, what a fanbase you are...

Ahem. I can see in retrospect that maybe I wasn't playful enough, and I sympathise entirely, I mean, you brought me along for the entertainment and I seem to have been rather dull. I heard a lay, long ago, about the Lord of Evil Morgoth before Tulkas captured him, and how he used to turn minstrels that bored him into tortellini.

But personally, I'm not quite sure I'm so desperately guilty as charged. I might not have been playful, but, as spawn herself readily admits, there wasn't all that much to play with at the time of writing. Yet I had to churn something out as I had picked out that section of the morning for my main period of imput, leaving the rest for some work.

Now, naturally, you've called me away for rather harder work. I feel a thousand bills trained on my effete minstrel frame. Yep, bills.

Originally Posted by Spawn

His first post is a noble attempt to make an analysis with minimal amount of material. Maybe a bit too noble, actually.

The island resonates to my gulping at this point. Should've guessed it from that tricolon earlier. Incidentally, Ungoliantina m'dear, what happened to your Firefoot and Roa analyses? Not enough material?

Originally Posted by Spawn

At that point ten people had posted and he picked six of them (who had posted once or twice) to inspect. All the statements of the villagers contain a positive and negative side, but we don't get any kind of a real conclusion of that. Yes, it's hard to tell, but that hardly provokes discussion and it's something a WP would want to do in order to appear helpful.

The stringent criteria for my choices were simply the ones that caught my interest. I might as well criticise you for not examining Firefoot and Roa-though in fact I'm not going to do so. I was saying as much as I could and what I genuinely thought, not just some vain controversy-courting gauntlet-chuck challenge. Seems it didn't pay off.

-He said that he likes fighting with phantom, but phantom makes sense. Ang is suspicious of phantom until he's proven innocent, but he agrees with phantom's points.

Yes, that's what I said, and I meant it. Unlike the redoubtable phantom, I don't instantaneously see a case against anyone I choose to accuse. Now (as with Saucy in an earlier adventure) I suspect phantom but am damned if I can justify my fears. He's just as usual; indeed predictable.

In Ang's second post he answers Macalaure that the Seer theory has two sides, but phantom's plan seems pretty good unless he is a WP. Next thing he says that he'd rather not have hints at all because we should concentrate on the enemies instead of gifteds. To me the plan isn't about concentrating on gifteds, but trying to distract the WPs while we pay attention to catching them.

IE...this is your "not flip-flopping exactly, but" point. I don't regard so called flip-flopping as an invariable crime. To me a post should be a fluid unit of thought not length, and if you start at a different position from where you began it can actually be helpful.

About Seer-hints vs their lack-you're frightfully keen on pushing this, spawn. I simply think not doing something en masse is rather easier than doing something en masse. If we go along with the plot, some will hint, and some won't because they're individualists, or foes, or nervous Gifteds, or just don't like the plan. This gives the penguins a framework which may ultimately harm us more than them.

He asks if phantom wants to go with his ancestor's plan about lynching volunteers and says that he'd not support the idea.

In his third post Ang just refers to his ancestor and explains why he thinks that lynching volunteers is a bad idea. Well, why to bring it up in the first place, then?

You emphasise my leaning on "ancestral" advice, and I don't much like the implication that I'm a wicked, superior pseud who just rises above the press with a few tedious anecdotes. Now I'm not only a second-rate jester, but rather a bore as well.

I brought up that phantom theory because the phantom, as I said, is enormously predictable and having seen him wave about his tired old Seer hint plan, crafted many, many moons ago, I was interested in whether he was sticking with the rest of his usual manifesto too. I was sort of carrying out a preemptive strike against those smug flourishes of his that we all know and love.

All in all, Ang has been more, well, not necessarily flip-floppy, but careful than what I would have thought. I don't get the usual innocent feeling when reading his posts, and having no certain opinion about anything looks penguinesque, so I look forward to his future posts.

And vice versa. I continue to have the highest regard for your analysis.

Now, I suppose I'd best pick a target for you bloodthirsty masses to be amused by. Get back to my duties as the unwitting Cobbler. I am forced to vote early, but will attempt to round off some fairly token reasoning.

[Kitanna]

Anguirel's last post is what I like to see. Mainly because it sheds a bit of light on him. Anguirel is extremely quiet when he's evil, making one or two posts a day and slipping under everyone's radar. So far he's made four posts, which is more then he'd have made as an evil. His defense also speaks pretty well of him. However there are also a few posts that Anguirel brought up in his last post that worry me as well.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

The island resonates to my gulping at this point. Should've guessed it from that tricolon earlier. Incidentally, Ungoliantina m'dear, what happened to your Firefoot and Roa analyses? Not enough material?
...
The stringest criteria for my choices were simply the ones that caught my interest. I might as well criticise you for not examining Firefoot and Roa-though in fact I'm not going to do so. I was saying as much as I could and what I genuinely thought, not just some vain controversy-courting gauntlet-chuck challenge. Seems it didn't pay off.

Though Anguirel makes a reasonable point about Spawn focusing on him and not Firefoot and Roa. He says he won't make a case of it, but he brings it forward twice so that no one forgets Spawn went for him and not the other two. A reasonable post, but a bit of it feels like him trying to throw the suspicions off himself and onto Spawn.

Yes, that's what I said, and I meant it. Unlike the redoubtable phantom, I don't instantaneously see a case against anyone I choose to accuse. Now (as with Saucy in an earlier adventure) I suspect phantom but am damned if I can justify my fears. He's just as usual; indeed predictable.
...
I brought up that phantom theory because the phantom, as I said, is enormously predictable and having seen him wave about his tired old Seer hint plan, crafted many, many moons ago, I was interested in whether he was sticking with the rest of his usual manifesto too. I was sort of carrying out a preemptive strike against those smug flourishes of his that we all know and love.
vote early, but will attempt to round off some fairly token reasoning.

Once again he brings up the phantom and his natural distrust for him. Seems like overkill, he made it clear he doesn't trust the phantom in his first few posts, but he brings it up too often for comfort. We all have certain players we distrust because of what has happened in the past, but there is no need to reinstate that point in almost all one's posts.

Now Anguirel's defense of himself and his talkative nature show him in an innocent light. But throwing Spawn's suspicions of him onto her and his constant phantom points give him a more guilty façade.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Anguirel's last post is what I like to see. Mainly because it sheds a bit of light on him. Anguirel is extremely quiet when he's evil, making one or two posts a day and slipping under everyone's radar. So far he's made four posts, which is more then he'd have made as an evil.

I know this is against my interests, Kitanna, but actually that's piffle. I've been cursed twice and on both occasions I talked constantly right until I was dragged, flailing, kicking, biting, and howling, to the gallows and the gibbet-the only exceptions being when I was away.

I always talk a lot, I think. Not Lommyesque quantities, but quite a lot nonetheless. I'm a sort of middleweight loudmouth.

Oh, and that stuff about dragging Spawnowen through the coals about Firefoot and Roa and then disingenuously claiming I wasn't accusing her for it is a good sighting by you, but it was, sort of, intended as a joke. Basically it means I've been struggling with too much [Latin] oratory today. Cicero, er, Feanor, uses that technique all the time in his polemics...

Mentioning the phantom a lot. Well, how could I not. I mean, he is Eru, isn's he?

[Macalaure]

Chance of a regular innocent to pick one other innocent now: 12 out of 15

Same after one lynching and one killing: 9 out of 12 (if no wp is lynched)

12/15 * 9/12 = 3/5 a chance for an innocent to pick two other innocents. Only a little more than 50-50. The wps can single almost half of us out as possible seers. And that after two days! Way no good.


But I think we can abandon all this for the reasons Ang gave, anyway. It's unlikely that all innocents will join in...

[JennyHallu]

Macalaure...maths always make me nervous, but shoddy maths make me downright suspicious.

Our proverbial villager-er-iceberger can discount himself, knowing his own innocence, so his first pick is out of 14, not 15. 3 are wolves: therefore his chances of correctly naming an innocent is 11 out of 14.

On day 2, assuming we have lost 2 innocents, he is down to 12 choices. His chances are now 9 out of 12.

But you are assuming randomness, and that simply does not hold. An iceberger does not, perhaps, know anything, but neither are we incapable of intelligent analysis. The more information we have to work with, the higher the chance of being correct in our analyses. And each innocent revealed by death increases the real information we have, and makes analysis even stronger. I have great faith in the power of these icebergers!!