WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[the phantom]

Anywho...my readings over Boro's posting made Mac ping, once again, on my radar screen. No offense to your test, TP, but Boro certainly didn't expect to get killed yesterday, and it just seemed that he emphasized and re-emphasized Mac's newbieness and innocence. Made me nervous.

I'll take a look at those posts later. There may be something to that. Of course, Boro emphasizing Mac's innocence could have been done just so we'd lynch an innocent Mac. You know how nasty those penguins are.

And I don't want you to think that I'm not considering Mac whatsoever, though. If he was completely off my list, I wouldn't have included his name in my list of possible Penguinish votes.

And about the history book I have containing interviews with Boro88's great great grandfather and known werewolf, Boro85, I think I'm allowed to use it, Roa.

The rule about not using pms to verify what someone is saying- it seems fairly obvious to me that the rule is meant to guard against someone giving a direct quote from the pm sent to them by Nogrod or Lommy that assigned them their role. I doubt they had in mind a villager recalling a past conversation with another villager that was not in any way written with this current village in mind.

[Diamond18]

I'm in the midst of reading over TiG X right now.... Tell me, did any of you post PM's at the end? If so, they've become public knowledge just like any game posts from that game, so I would think could be used just the same.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm in the midst of reading over TiG X right now.... Tell me, did any of you post PM's at the end? If so, they've become public knowledge just like any game posts from that game, so I would think could be used just the same.

Caran did, at the end, but Boromir wasn't in that game that I recall. The Wolves were Jenny, Caran, and myself, the seer was Naria, and the ranger was Zali.

I'm not finished with my summaries and analysis, but I need sleep now, so I'll try to finish them tommorrow (RL).

The rule about not using pms to verify what someone is saying- it seems fairly obvious to me that the rule is meant to guard against someone giving a direct quote from the pm sent to them by Nogrod or Lommy that assigned them their role. I doubt they had in mind a villager recalling a past conversation with another villager that was not in any way written with this current village in mind.

As I said, I'd like a mod ruling on it- I'm all for catching wolves, but I'm more for playing by the rules. Honestly, you could just tell us what he's prone to do- there's no reall reason to use them.

[Encaitare]

I feel that Boromir is a savvy enough player to have placed a fellow wolf in his suspicious list, which leaves us only with Roa and Anguirel. Nothing's definite, of course, but it is still a possibility.

Roa

Was the second person out of 7 to vote for Boro. Lalaith was first, and Roa cast her vote long before Boro's penguin-ness was revealed. Roa said that she was suspicious of Boromir since his second post, which read:

Originally Posted by Boromir88, post #14

Some quick comments on people so far before I must be off...

Valier and Eonwe are acting too strange to be evil penguins. I don't think wps would act in this manner in the very early goings of the game.

Firefoot brought up useful comment on the cobbler, one which I completely forgot about, seeing as I have no remembrance of a cobbler for a very very long time now. So Firefoot I'm ok with for now, a very logical sensible person to have around.

I can't find much significance in Roa's, phantom's, or Diamond's, posts yet, so there's nothing for me to go off of.

I shall now depart.

In post #72, Roa explains why she found Boro so supicious. In the post quotd above, Boro said that her posts were not very significant, but later cited one of those posts as grounds for suspecting her. He was also contradictory in other small ways. At the time I felt like Roa was being nitpicky with the way she compared every little thing he said, but now I'm glad she did. With the way Roa and Boro were going back and forth so heatedly yesterDay, I think it's safe to say that Roa is innocent.

Anguirel

He writes in a Day 1 post:

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Anyway, at this stage I'd rather have no hints at all. We shouldn't be too absorbed in our assets-the Gifted Ones will make themselves known at the right time-instead we should have an eye to our insidious enemies.

Incidentally, phantom old chap, are you still into killing Ordinary Elves on Day One to prevent the accidental lynching of a Gifted? I'm not.

Perhaps Ang and the phantom are just two very different players with two very different styles. Yet I feel like the suggestion that there be no attempt to divert attention away from the gifteds is a bit suspicious.

Originally Posted by Anguirel, post #55

So with little time to lose I am going to have to vote for Eonwe with the shoddy justification of his quietness.

It's true that Eonwe was very quiet, only posting a couple of times without any analysis, and didn't even cast a vote. But this makes me wonder why Ang chose to vote for Eonwe when he wasn't the only quiet player. I hadn't even posted at all by the time Ang voted. I suppose it was the lack of substance in the posts rather than the absence which made Ang make the choice he did.

Conclusion about Ang: inconclusive. He doesn't seem terribly suspicious to me at present, but I am not placing him on my probably-innocent-list.

[Diamond18]

Okey dokey, I've read through TiG X and gleaned just a couple things from it. In the early stages of the game Boro mostly ignored his fellow wolves or voiced only slight suspicion of them -- they were never amongst his top suspects. He barely interacted with Lalaith but did exchange some posts with tp. He latched onto the innocent Kuru and for most of the game treated him as innocent, only voicing any real suspicions late in the game, and only backed off when Kuru revealed himself as the Hunter. Other players he seemed to vary on as one would expect a convincing sort of innocent to do... I didn't find much that seemed to matter on that score. Some interesting early posts of Boro's were: #107 #200 & #256.

Note that in #200 he names phantom among the least suspicious and Lalaith only in the somehwat suspicious.

So, to compare that to this game...

Borrowing Roa's handy list:

Originally Posted by Roa's handy list

People Boromir though innocent

Valier
Mac
Jenny
Spawn
Eonwe

People Boromir wasn't sure about

phantom
Firefoot
Naria
Encaitare
Diamond

If Boro is following his usual wolvish behavior, then it's QUITE likely that there is one Werepenguin per group. From the second group I can rule out tp and myself, which leads me to want to look closely at Naria, Firefoot, and Enca. Unforunately, we have no knowns from the first group (unless you are an innocent in that group, then you can rule out yourself, happily). But I am fairly certain that the two wolves do not share a grouping.

If Boro was following his usual wolvish behavior, this group is looking pretty good at the moment:

Originally Posted by Roa's handy list

People Boromir Suspected

Lal
Roa
Kitanna
Ang

Well, obviously Lal and Kit are innocent. I'm inclined to look favorably on Ang and Roa for the time being, since Boro has shown a proclivity for being less supicious of his fellows in the early stages.

Of course, as I'm sure some are eager to point out, there is one inherent flaw in looking too closely at the parallels between TIG X and our current game. Boro may not have been behaving exactly the same. Boro has only been a werecreature once before, so we do not know whether he is the sort of mix it up or stay the same when evil. I'm inclined to think he's more likely to stay the same, but that's just me. Also, he most definitely had different compatriots for this game since Lal and tp are both innocents. Unless, that is, Lal is lying a blue streak and all three were once more teammates, oh horror of horrors, but as we have had no true seer step forward to declaim her, I'm not going to weird myself out with that prospect too much.

[the phantom]

I'm in the midst of reading over TiG X right now.... Tell me, did any of you post PM's at the end?

Yes. I used to write a review after every game of WW I was in. In this post, I have a link to the page containing my review. It's public knowledge.

[the phantom]

Okay, now I'll quickly explain the comment I made earlier.

Originally Posted by me

For right now, I'll just say that from the voting alone, Valier looks suspicious. Anguirel, Diamond, and Mac also make votes that would be the logical vote for a WP to make at the time it was cast. Firefoot's too, though a bit less so.

Why are their votes Penguinish, you ask?

Here are my reasons for suspecting their votes (in order from most suspicious to least).

1) Valier
She voted for Anguirel when the voting stood at-
Lalaith-4
Kitanna-3
Boro-2
Roa-1
Ang-1

She cast the vote when there were only three non-voters left. At that point, Lalaith had not revealed, and so it was a solid bet that, with two people already above him, Boro was safe, and thus a fellow Penguin's vote was not necessary to save him. A smart penguin would probably not vote for Lal or Kit (don't want to be part of lynching an innocent), would not vote for Boro (too risky to vote for him at that point), and would not vote for someone who had no votes at all (it would look like a throwaway vote).

The perfect scenario would be to vote for a Penguin with only one vote. It would create seperation without much of a risk. Is that what happened? Are Valier and Ang Penguins? We'll find out eventually.

2) Anguirel
He cast a very early vote for Eonwe. That's not a huge risk though, because we have retractable votes. As soon as Boro received a vote, Ang switched his vote to Kitanna, tying her for the early lead with Lalaith at two votes a piece. Padding Lalaith's lead would've been a bit too bold for a Penguin, so Ang did the next best thing and elevated another innocent into the lead.

3) Diamond
When Boro moved up to two votes with Kit and just behind Lal (who had three), Di stepped in and bumped Lal back up to a two point lead.

4) Mac
When Mac steps in it is a decent bet that Boro is safe (down 4-2 to Lal), and so Mac votes for Kit, bumping her up from 2 to 3. That seems like the sort of thing a Penguin would do. Instead of voting for the leader and getting the hands dirty, or appearing like you're trying to pad the lead to save a fellow penguin, you instead elevate another innocent up to near the top.

5) Firefoot
She was the first to stack her vote onto someone who already had a vote. Also, she never tried to retract despite the fact that she had voted for the Seer. That doesn't sound like Ff (though I guess it's possible she was just busy).

[Lalaith]

Lal is lying a blue streak and all three were once more teammates

Now wouldn't that be fun. But alas, no. This is my last Day among you...I will die, Di, tonight, at the hands of those avian monstrosities.
Speaking of which, (ie the fact that we were all teammates) I too have my opinions on Boro as a wolf, although no-one seems to have had the courtesy to ask me for them, ahem.
I think Boro's wolvish behaviour would depend on who his team-mates were. The plan, when we were all wolves together that time, was that phantom would do his usual thing, and I would lie low. This seemed to work, so he never had to attack either of us, although I remember him saying he would certainly have no compunction in rounding on one of us if necessary. He would also I think quite understand if, say, a Roa-style wolf decided to attack him.
What I do find unlikely is that he would go on about Mac's innocence in that obvious way if Mac were one of his team-mates.

I like your list Phantom. In Ang's defence, I would repeat that his defence of me was not unexpected. A guilty Ang might have copied this behaviour possibly, voted for Kit saying "I hope this saves Lalaith", and then disappeared pleading revision duties or something. But I don't think he would have stuck around trying to convince everybody else, as well, in the way he did. But I could be wrong.
(And if I am, I will make a point of calling him Angurl-iel for a long time after this.)

[Lalaith]

she saves her retraction for possibly retracting on herself, and in the next it's "I need to remain alive - only I can save Lal."

Again, I feel I must defend the brave, dead Kit. She had to say she was prepared to retract to herself, otherwise she would have looked extremely WP-ish and we would have lynched her anyway.

I also must give credit to Roa's very useful postings today, - but also giving credit to her WW brilliance, she is one of the few players here who could carry off the double-act of being so helpful and still being a WP.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

The rule about not using pms to verify what someone is saying- it seems fairly obvious to me that the rule is meant to guard against someone giving a direct quote from the pm sent to them by Nogrod or Lommy that assigned them their role. I doubt they had in mind a villager recalling a past conversation with another villager that was not in any way written with this current village in mind.

the phantom is right. All past conversations between any one of you can be used. Obviously the moral question is not removed with a ruling like this - so if someome has sent you a private message, s/he has assumed it to be private... but that's another matter already.

The ruling only denies the use of any PM's that you have sent or received from the mods just before or during the game.

[Firefoot]

First off, I do have a lot to say. But I am currently dead tired (was up all night - long story), and many of my comments will be waiting for later - hopefully sometime toDay. Some of my thoughts have already been stated by phantom and Roa especially - his point about Valier was particularly resonant. I also noticed Ang's vote as being rather suspicious, but based on his posting, I'm not at all convinced he is guilty. I'm thinking it was more or less bad timing for him.

Also, she never tried to retract despite the fact that she had voted for the Seer. That doesn't sound like Ff (though I guess it's possible she was just busy).

Take the busy option. After I voted, I left.

Something more comprehensive later. I'm not thinking at all right now.

[Lalaith]

Nine of our 15 were definitely around after I revealed last night:
Kitanna, Lalaith and Phantom, although that's not relevant as we are all PIs.
Roa (who voted for Boro just after 10pm, saying she had to leave, but then stuck around)
Jenny (who had already used her retractable at the time I revealed)
Anguirel (who left just after the revelation and before voting deadline, if he is to be believed)
Naria, Valier, Macalaure.
Not around, apparently, or at least not posting: Eonwe (the only non-voter), Enca, Firefoot, Diamond, Spawn, (all of whom I think had said, as they voted, that they were going and not coming back) and the werepenguin Boro himself.
I revealed at 10.42pm.
Kitanna comes out and says she is around, but is understandably reluctant to change her vote to herself. Anguirel says good luck and good night (how could you have left when it was getting so exciting, Ang?)
Valier was the first to place or change her vote after I revealed, at 10.48pm. She went straight for Boromir, rather than ask what to do or plump for the Kit option. Does that make her look more, or less, guilty? I am inclined to say slightly less. Kit was ahead in the voting, and she had gone for Kit, (who had not said she was the ranger at this point) Valier could have subsequently argued that it seemed the only way to save the Seer at the time.
At 10.51pm, a whole bunch of stuff happens all at once. Kit reveals she is the Ranger. Mac retracts from Kit to Boro (but remains suspicious) and Naria comes on and makes her interesting vote, which she later says was a cross-posting mistake.
Roa wonders if she (Naria) does not believe me, and tells her "if you do not vote to save the Seer, we will know what you are." (Interesting that both Mac and Naria are puzzled why Kit revealed, although they were both around right at deadline and knew how tense things got...)
Then Naria changes her vote, Phantom comes on and votes for Boro, Kit retracts to Boro and everything falls into place.

[Anguirel]

To be completely honest, I bade you goodnight at post #105, as there was little more I could do or say, but followed avidly till post #120, when my, er, weariness came upon me [network shut down].

[JennyHallu]

Like I said last night, I'm not going to be around toDay. So this is my vote:

++Mac, just Mac.

Because I really think Boro's posts point to him as a Penguin.

[Anguirel]

Ooo. Impetuous, but I don't see much wrong with that per se . This quiet day needs a bit of shaking about if we're to get something useful and considered out of it.

My philippic against Diamond is taking some time to brew. But it is coming...