WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[JennyHallu]

Like I said last night, I'm not going to be around toDay. So this is my vote:

++Mac, just Mac.

Because I really think Boro's posts point to him as a Penguin.

[Anguirel]

Ooo. Impetuous, but I don't see much wrong with that per se . This quiet day needs a bit of shaking about if we're to get something useful and considered out of it.

My philippic against Diamond is taking some time to brew. But it is coming...

[Macalaure]

Yay! My first vote!

I somehow feel the need to explain what I did last day and what was happening from my point of view. There was a lot of cross-posting, I hope I get it all right.


When I voted, it was Lal 4, Kit 2, Boro 2.

To me, Lal felt weird, but not necessarily guilty, Kit was suspicious and Boro looked quite innocent.

So, to give Lal a better chance of surviving, I voted for Kitanna, deeming her the lesser loss. (34 min until deadline)

Then, Valier chose Ang, making Lal reveal herself. (18 min until deadline)

I was pretty stunned, but there was still time, 3 votes, and a lot of retractions left. I was pondering my options, preferring to go after Boromir.

Valier retracted to Boromir next: Lal 4, Boro 3, Kit 3. Thus I retracted to Boromir as well, making it 4-4-2.
That I made Roa's and Lalaith's possible retractions useless by this didn't appear to me then. I was just hoping that somebody more will choose Boro (didn't expect Kitanna to do that, as I still didn't trusted her).

While I typed, Naria stepped in and Kitanna revealed herself. (9 min until deadline)
Had I retracted earlier, it would have taken pressure off her. She could have retracted to Boromir, put him in the lead and everything would have been fine.
Let's assign bad timing to Mordor, where it belongs.

The vote of phantom and the retractions of Naria and Kitanna then saved the day.

Rereading it all, it was quite close. I didn't feel it that bad at the time.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Further to my previous post about Kitanna having to reveal: rather than ponder the wherefores of this, we would be better employed inspecting the circumstances which forced her out of the closet.

Seconded, though I'm still at a complete loss about Post 125 (before?).

[Lalaith]

I expect she meant she'd switch to Boro. But don't agonize over it, she WAS the Ranger, it's official...

[Lalaith]

I just had a thought, about how penguins might vote, with regard to the new rules about the Logical Hunter.

If the hunter is lynched, her pick will go with her if s/he has voted for the hunter on that particular Day.

So, with this in mind, a penguin might be reluctant to be on the "winning team" when it comes to lynch-voting, as an innocent lynch victim might be the hunter.

So rather than bandwaggoning an innocent for lynching, a penguin might prefer to vote for one of his own, particularly if they don't appear to be at risk of lynching, or to vote for an innocent who *isn't* going to be lynched.

Now, Boro of course voted for me, an innocent who looked in real danger of being lynched. Maybe he realised that I was probably the Seer rather than the Hunter. Maybe he was telling the truth when he said he didn't pay enough attention to rules.
But it's worth bearing in mind.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I think Boro's wolvish behaviour would depend on who his team-mates were. The plan, when we were all wolves together that time, was that phantom would do his usual thing, and I would lie low. This seemed to work, so he never had to attack either of us, although I remember him saying he would certainly have no compunction in rounding on one of us if necessary. He would also I think quite understand if, say, a Roa-style wolf decided to attack him.

Yes, after reading tp's WWX summary (PMs, mainly) it's seems you were quite the well oiled machine. But, seeing as things worked out so well for him in that game, Boro might be inclined to suggest a similar strategy to his wolves. A sort of if it ain't broke don't fix it mentality. On another flip side, knowing that both you and tp were innocents in this game might make him wary of behaving in a manner the two of you would instantly pick up on.

Yet, all possibilities to the contrary aside, I find it intereseting that the people Boro's historical habits shed a bit of suspicion on have also made suspicious votes in their own right, this game.

I think today I may almost certainly vote for one of the following:

Valier
Jenny
Spawn
Eonwe

Seeing as Spawn is gone for RL reasons, I hesitate a bit to condemn her, but then, I haven't done any sort of analysis on hers posts. Eonwe as a non-voter is a mite suspect, seeing as he could have conveinently maintained his low profile instead of making a stand on the endangered Seer/Ranger issue. My gut feeling on Jenny was to not be suspicious, but I've thought "Oh no, she can't possibly be evil again," before, and been wrong, so I'll have to try and be more analytical about her, methinks.

At any rate, should time permit, I'd like to do at least some mini-analysis on those four people. I've got 3 hours, I'll see what I can do with it.

Oh, and note, that list is taken from people Boro thought innocent, but I have left out Mac, because I'm sufficiently confident in his innocence for toDay and don't feel like analyzing him.

As to Ang and his... er, philippic... against me (does this have something to do with horses or tp? ) he seems rather genuine and that coupled with Boro's stated suspicion of him makes me feel him innocent. However, I do have bad memories of laughing at a certain Scotsman's description of me in a past game and thinking it made him seem less suspicious not more, and he turned out to be a wolf, so maybe I should overcompensate in a paranoid way and suspect Ang anyway. Yeah, try and follow that logic, I dares ya.

[Anguirel]

Analysis: (I used not to do these because they're exhausting. I now think they might be less exhausting and a wee bit more to the point than the typical Ang-forged denunciation that is so close to your hearts. Don't worry, I'll follow with one anyway)

#9-gag. Good excuse not to retract if something comes up-as it did. (Sorry Diamond, I am always infuriated when people attack me for my jokes and you ought to be too, but I think it has to be said.)

#12-"I wish" could actually be a blatant Cobbler hint, but I reckon it's just repartee. Despite her later claim to boredom with the subject, she plunges into the rule-flicking here with merry abandon. I don't see her Cobbler comment as that suspicious though actually, if read in contest. Interesting that Boro picked up on it first, incidentally. Probably quite a good idea for a werepenguin to direct a ropey attack that's clearly a shambles at one of his comperes.

#40-the notorious "I'm so bored" post.

AUDREY "DIMWE" HEPBURN: Oohhh, do let's stop quawrelling about this tedious things. They're so petty...

She has a chat with Boro that doesn't contain much, relating slightly to past lives; could be a relatively innocuous looking sign of linkage. But it's the boredom that worries me:

One creature only is so foul and false/He is Ennui!

Ennui is indeed a powerful thing. It appeals to peer-pressure and stuff and easily gets sympathy. It's a bit conspiratorial, a laugh behind the hand, even a flirtation. An accusation of caution and possible boredom by Spawnowen had even got me het up at about the same time. And look how many people felt accused by Diamond's statement or agreed with it: Macalaure, Valier, Boromir, Roa (if I remember rightly)...

By the by-Boromir's apparent judgement of Diamond was one of qualified suspicion. IE, surprise, he hedged his bets and blurred.

#59-quick analysis. Predicts Kitanna's innocence. Doesn't suspect Boro. More anti Lalaith than not.

#65-reinforces suspicion of Lalaith

#89-teases me (valid)...still bored...can only be bothered to analyse in light of solid knowledge. Irrelevant re-cap of previous wereattack, but valid poin tabout duels obscuring culprits.

#93-votes Lalaith for "twisting words". Looks forward to some clear evidence-presumably Lalaith's corpse. She can't retract this one! A bit hasty and vote-happy? Might have a reason for it

#139-prempts (not particularly likely) dream of herself. As innocent, eager to stop pedants like me accusing her. As werebird, cynically certain she wasn't dreamed of and increasing cred. Hmm. Hunter ramble. I must say, Diamond, it's a bit...boring? Heads off to analyse Boromir at the speed of sound

#142-despite quip, shows quite strong faith in Macalaure's innocence. Says her gut feelings are negated due to recent events. Points out she was right about Kitanna -yes, indeed you were, missy.

#152-waits for Phantom's views. Later wonders about PMs. (I find the WWX stuff a bit of a red herring. Every village is a new page, to my mind, with new tactics.)

#160-puts faith in lumping names in lists and consistency from game to game. Isn't this is all a bit of a massive distraction? Qualifies her views though. Does bring up possibility of Lal and phantom as in cahoots, which is frankly pretty loony, but what do you expect...

Right, well, that's about it. What I think of it coming up.

[Anguirel]

Diamond's voting-which is what you pure statisticians out there might regard as the crux-is quite definitely frivolous at best and dangerous and worst. Her first vote is so conspicuous and natural and funny that it seems to be challenging you to dare to criticise it. Her second vote, on the other hand, is rather drab and sly and not particularly coherently supported. It puts Lalaith, as the phantom notes, well ahead of the other candidates again. It's consensus. Anguirels don't much like consensus.

Her interaction with Boro reveals a typical penguin-pack commander relationship as exercised by a loudmouth like Boro. Not very well constructed suspicion on one side. Total acceptance on the other. She seems to predict Kitanna's innocence and may be repeating the trick with Macalaure.

Since Lalaith's revelation she's been apologetic, maybe a bit over-anticipatory, especially with that remark suspecting, or saying she suspects, that she's been proven innocent.

And it's all in such a delightfully care-free manner.

I'm afraid my first vote this evening is going to have to go to you, Bright Young Thing. I know my performance looks like a one-track advance today, but I have also examined Roa a bit and she still seems a figure exuding fewer Machiavellian vibes.

I will again keep my second vote back and aim to return at about nine or half-past (my time, one hour earlier GMT apparently) to check nothing's happened requiring some retracting, as per yesterday. In the mean time, it being the Saturday evening after, ahem, musial performances [exams] I will have some revelry to do.

++DIAMOND

Oh, and, my friends, generally, speak up. Today is so quiet I'm suspecting we've lost more than one Cartesian soul...

[Eonwe]

Here I am, with my head spinning a bit. I'll hope to make the best of it though.

Originally Posted by B88

So now onto what I was talking about before and the kind of feel I got off of people's post. These are the ones that to me, as of right now have a more innocent look to them:

Spawn
Jenny
Eonwe
Valier
Macalaure

Of course, it could go either way, but I would be willing to bet that there is a wolf thrown in there. But maybe not. Just something to keep in mind.

I'm gonna have to wait a few days, perhaps, before I can form any real suspicions. I like to let the evedence build up and look for inconsistancies.