WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[Anguirel]

Diamond's voting-which is what you pure statisticians out there might regard as the crux-is quite definitely frivolous at best and dangerous and worst. Her first vote is so conspicuous and natural and funny that it seems to be challenging you to dare to criticise it. Her second vote, on the other hand, is rather drab and sly and not particularly coherently supported. It puts Lalaith, as the phantom notes, well ahead of the other candidates again. It's consensus. Anguirels don't much like consensus.

Her interaction with Boro reveals a typical penguin-pack commander relationship as exercised by a loudmouth like Boro. Not very well constructed suspicion on one side. Total acceptance on the other. She seems to predict Kitanna's innocence and may be repeating the trick with Macalaure.

Since Lalaith's revelation she's been apologetic, maybe a bit over-anticipatory, especially with that remark suspecting, or saying she suspects, that she's been proven innocent.

And it's all in such a delightfully care-free manner.

I'm afraid my first vote this evening is going to have to go to you, Bright Young Thing. I know my performance looks like a one-track advance today, but I have also examined Roa a bit and she still seems a figure exuding fewer Machiavellian vibes.

I will again keep my second vote back and aim to return at about nine or half-past (my time, one hour earlier GMT apparently) to check nothing's happened requiring some retracting, as per yesterday. In the mean time, it being the Saturday evening after, ahem, musial performances [exams] I will have some revelry to do.

++DIAMOND

Oh, and, my friends, generally, speak up. Today is so quiet I'm suspecting we've lost more than one Cartesian soul...

[Eonwe]

Here I am, with my head spinning a bit. I'll hope to make the best of it though.

Originally Posted by B88

So now onto what I was talking about before and the kind of feel I got off of people's post. These are the ones that to me, as of right now have a more innocent look to them:

Spawn
Jenny
Eonwe
Valier
Macalaure

Of course, it could go either way, but I would be willing to bet that there is a wolf thrown in there. But maybe not. Just something to keep in mind.

I'm gonna have to wait a few days, perhaps, before I can form any real suspicions. I like to let the evedence build up and look for inconsistancies.

[the phantom]

I've got to leave (probably for the day), so here's my last minute stuff. I'm not that concerned with getting all my thoughts out there because I know I'm going to be alive tomorrow, and I should have more time late tomorrow.

Everyone should examine posts #33 and #46 made by Boro and try to guess where he is hiding his fellow Penguins on his lists.

Here is a summary of what Boro says as well as my feelings about Boro's words about his fellow villagers.

He says Valier is innocent in both of them, and I already said that Valier's vote yesterday was a possible Penguinish vote. Feeling- makes me suspect Valier.

He mainly argues with Diamond. Feeling- I'm not sure, but leaning towards not suspecting Di.

Naria was largely absent, and so he says nothing except that he'd like to see more from her. Feeling- I can't get much from this, but I don't suspect Naria.

He pegs Mac as an innocent newbie in both posts. Feeling- Mac could be guilty (I already said his vote might be suspicious), but I'd place others in front of him.

He says that Firefoot could be a dangerous enemy, but a useful villager, and so shouldn't be lynched early. He also liked her advice, but said he wouldn't be surprised if she was a wolf. Feeling- Boro's reaction to Firefoot makes me suspicious, and she was also one of my possible Penguinish votes.

He says Jenn doesn't sit right early on, but then moves her to innocent. Feeling- It makes me slightly suspicious. If you'll notice, Jenn also voted against Roa when it became clear that Roa was not going to give up her attack on Boro.

He mainly argues with Roa, and ends up listing her as a high suspect. Feeling- I could be wrong, but the argument didn't seem contrived. I think they were truly in opposition.

He said Spawn was a bit fishy and perhaps tying herself with an innocent (me), but then moved her to especially innocent status mainly because of her helpful input on Anguirel. Feeling- It doesn't make me suspicious, and it makes me less suspicious of Ang.

He said that Ang hadn't done anything strange early, but then he latched onto Spawn's suspicions but says he'll refrain from taking action against him till he's back. Feeling- As I said earlier, Boro's reaction to the Spawn-Ang thing puts them lower on my list.

He doesn't say much about Eonwe, except that he's probably innocent. Feeling- Could be hiding a penguin amidst the innocent, but there's not enough for me to go on.

He doesn't say much about Enca and leaves her undecided. Feeling- I don't have much to go on.

The proven innocents, Lal, Kit, and I-

He attacks Lal and tries to get her lynched.

He thinks Kit might be the Cobbler.

He thinks I appear innocent, but says that you can never be sure with me.

So anyway, there's a bit of info for you. Put it to use if you want. Keep in mind that I know less than nearly everyone (because the Seer dream was about me, therefore I can't rule out an extra person like the rest of you can).

So, my choices are in order Valier, Jenn, Firefoot, Mac, and Ang.

I'll vote for...

+ + Valier

[Macalaure]

Proved innocent: Lalaith, phantom

Innocent to me: spawn, Roa

More innocent than guilty: Anguirel, Diamond, Enca

undecided about: Eonwe, Naria

more guilty than innocent: Valier

guilty in my book: JennyHallu


++JennyHallu


Now, over to the why:

Jenny has been flying under my radar yesterday. Admittedly, her vote for me made me take a closer look at her.

In her posts 15,30,34 and 39 she wanted us to not go after the cobbler and to stop the Gifted-talk. Much nonsense in there as well.

In 53 she corrects my fault and sympathises with phantom's idea, but not overly so.

66: votes for said phantom, because he thought me innocent without giving a reason. Ignores his proposal to give explanation later.

76: she's with Roa on Boromir. Obviously, not enough to make her retract her vote.

83: turns around, suspects Roa and retracts to her.

126: regrets to already have used her retraction.

155,171: suspects me and casts her vote. Only reason: my position on Boromir's list. No word about why me and none of the other ones on it.

phantom already pointed out Boro's behaviour towards her, so I won't repeat. Boromir seemed very eager to put her lower on his list.

I'm not sure Jenny is a werepenguin. Her behaviour seems a little too clueless. Maybe the cluelessness of a cobbler on a Day 1? Too intangible, too trying to not stand out. Too suspicious.

I hate to vote for somebody who won't be here today, but alas.

[Valier]

I just wanted to say I find it a bit odd that I am on quite a few suspect lists and I am confused as to why. I voted for Ang yesterday because my gut tells me he is a baddie. I would not have changed my vote from him at all, but Lalaith came out and told us Boro was a WP so since I was around of course I would change my vote to help the village. My suspects as of late are....Anguirel, Naria, Mac

I believe at least one of these is a WP and more than likely one is also the cobbler. I will try to see if I can come up with a bit more reasoning before I vote.

[Valier]

Oh and Ang.....

Why Dimwe is Dolorous

Why the use of an anagram may I ask? Are you the cobbler and your trying to mess with people like me who can't solve them?

[Diamond18]

Valier

#11

Opens with a joking predictions/stereotypes sort of post. On the surface, nothing to read any meaning into. Oh, but this is Downsian Werewolf were every joke, quip, and throwaway comment must be analyzed within an inch of its life! Haha! So, note that her opinions run to these sorts of categories (becuase you know you love the categories)

Definity bad:

Boromir
Jenny
Naria
Roa

Slightly or vaguely suspicious:

Ang
Spawn
Dimwë
Eonwe
Firefoot
Kitanna
Lalaith
tp

No opinion:

Enca
Mac

Well, that was fun, pointless, and boring all at once. Interesting to me, though, that the strongest conviction she seems to display (even jokingly) is that Boro is definitely a Werepenguin. Either her instincts are frightening even when she is only joking, or she knew this and was being frightfully bold.

#42

Here she agrees with me about Werewolf 101 to be boring. This isn't surprising, as Valier is outspokenly more of an instinct and feeling kind of a player than a strategm and theorizing sort of player, and all the WW101 fell under the strategm and theorizing. So this is not suspicious coming from Val. She promises a post with another overview of baddies/goodies, but a serious one this time.

#50

Questions tp about the arrow icon. I found this strange last game and find it strange again, but then, I have been on the board almost as long as tp has and have known him to use that icon as a calling card in any situation.

#68

Comes through with the promised "thoughts on players" post. Potential wp's are Ang, Naria, phantom. Finds Naria and Mac "iffy." Says "Jenny, Spawn, Boromir, Diamond, Firefoot are in my feels innocent list." Others she doesn't know about. So, obviously, of the known innocents she suspects tp (for his use of icon, apparently) and doesn't mention the other two. The known wp is on her likely innocents, which doesn't necessarily mean anything, to which I can attest.

#86

Here she dislikes Roa's comment when Roa says it's dangerous to assume her innocence. Not really sure what's so off about Roa's comment here, myself. It's really actually sort of a "No, duh" comment because it is dangerous to assume other people's innocence. I think it's necessary to a point but it is dangerous.

#99

Votes Ang, questioning his push to lynch Kitanna. I myself didn't like Ang's suggestion to lynch Kitanna because I thought her innocent, but perhaps this was Ang sensing Lal's Seerishness, so in a way it makes sense.

Originally Posted by Ang

The firepower in this struggle is unequal, against Lalaith , and I fear it profits none but the penguins. Are there any moderates out there willing to take a punt on Kitanna?

Things started to get rather jumbled and cross posted at that point in the Day so it's kind of hard to tell what people were thinking. But I find it interesting that she made her Ang vote even after Lal made that rather telling "Oh Diamond, not again" comment. I can tell you, even though I read that post after the deadline when I got home, it gave me a chill, sort of like the precurser to the "oh d'oh" when she came right out and said she was the Seer. So the fact that Val said, "Well I see no reason not to go with my gut on this one" and went ahead and voted Ang in that strange period between "Oh Diamond, not again" and the reveal, when a vote to save Lal would have been better, makes me question how well that gut is working.

#108

It takes her 6 minutes to change her vote after Lal reveals. I'd say that's pretty quickly, which tends to speak for innocence in my mind. I mean, she could have laid low and said that she left for the day after voting Ang. But then, being so sneaky may simply have not have occured to her and she rushed to do the good looking thing.

#134

Advocates that Lal reveal her dream.

#183

Questions why she on people's suspects lists and restates her likely trio of wp's from yesterDay. Still suspects Ang.

#184

Questions Ang on a supposed anagram. Frankly, I don't think this even is an anagram. What's it supposed to say? *scratches head*

So, my opinions.... She seems a bit suspicious in some posts then less so in others, which makes her feel a bit slippery to me. I can well understand tp's vote for her. I will take a look at some other suspects before making a decision about what to do about her.

[Encaitare]

I agree with Mac about Jenny... I've been a bit suspicious of her since her early vote for Mac, largely because I believe all the signs point to his innocence. I'm going to review Jenny's posts and see if her earlier posts confirm today's vote.

EDIT: cross-posted with a lot of people... Valier and everyone since.

[Diamond18]

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

#25

Supports tp's plan and states that even if we lynch some innocents it doesn't matter so long as we eventually get all the werepenguins. Also advocates not worrying about the Cobbler. Voices intent to take a look at Firefoot, Roa, and Ang.

#27

Counters Mac's disagreements with the whole "everyone act seerish" plan.

#35

Replies to Mac again, states she could make a case against everyone, then goes on to make a case against Ang.

#58

Says lists would be bad, talks a bit more to/about Ang.

#69

Says shes a lot suspicious of Kitanna and a little suspicious of Jenny, then votes Kitanna. Odd, why the sudden switch away from her earlier quarry?

Okay, so now after reading over that Spawn is looking rather odd to me. None of her posts really say that much, though, granted they're Day 1 posts. She seems to go after Ang then back off without much reason either way. There's an appearence of the usual Spawn incisiveness but I feel as if it's a veneer. Spawn might indeed be avian or cobblerian. I'm still hesitant to vote for her, though, because Nilp said she'd be gone and she really can't defend herself or make any more substantial Day 2 contributions to judge.

[Diamond18]

Eonwe

I thought about skipping Eonwe and going right to Jenny, but he only has three posts so it's not like it'll take a lot of time. So:

#8

Mostly banter but is another advocate for not being concerned about the Cobbler.

#16

Very odd and unsettling reply to Boromir, in my opinion. Really. Read it and tell me this isn't strange.

#178

Repeats what has pretty much already been said about Boro's likely innocent list. Then states he'll have to wait a few DAYS for evidence to pile up before he can form any real suspicions. Days? Days?? There's already evidence out the wazi-hoo-hoo, my friend, we have 4 known players already, and even if 2 of them are dead, that give plenty of evidence to look at.

Conclusion:

Eonwe is evil and must die. Okay, to put it in a slightly less hyperbolic manner, he hasn't posted much or voted at all, hasn't given RL reasons why he hasn't posted much or voted at all, and managed to say some pretty bizarre things when he has posted. A little throwaway commenting here and there is all fine if you're at least trying to also participate, but this is just downright Gilesque in its wilful non-participation. I don't like it.

Alright, on to Jenny, though I'm running out of time.

Oh wait, I just saw this:

Originally Posted by Roa

I'm not concerned about Eonwe- if he doesn't vote today he gets taken out by Mod-fire of DOOOOOM, so I suggest not wasting a vote on him.

That's right. Okay, can we get a 100% sure confirmation from Lomgrod whether or not Eonwe is going to bite the dust toDay? He pretty much said he ain't gonna vote.

[Encaitare]

Here are the two people whom I believe are innocent:
1. Roa, as I explained in post #159.
2. Mac, for several reasons. Firstly, his newbie questions and challenging of the phantom suggest that he is an ordo. Secondly, after Jenny voted for him toDay, he said,

Originally Posted by Mac, post #173

Yay! My first vote!

I feel as though any werecreature, especially a first-timer, would have a feeling more along the lines of "oh, crap". Could be a clever bluff, but I don't think so. And thirdly, the phantom is a known innocent and a TiG veteran, and he suggested Mac's innocence (though he also places Mac's vote as mildly suspicious). As an unknown, phantom is dangerous, but as a known innocent I trust him.

Voting thus far:
Macalaure: 1 (JennyHallu)
Diamond18: 1 (Anguirel)
Valier: 1 (the phantom)