WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[Valier]

The cobbler=Another name for shoemaker

[Macalaure]

Thank you, Valier (I still suspect you, nevertheless )
Not a day passes at the downs without me learning something.

One thing about Eonwe:

On Boromir's first list he's the most suspected by him.

On the second he's among the innocents. Eonwe didn't post in between the two and Boro doesn't give reasons for this move.

Edit: Thank you Di, too.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Mac

Thank you, Valier (I still suspect you, nevertheless )

As I you

[Valier]

I do agree with both Diamond and Mac on their points about Eonwe. He is an odd fellow in every game I've seen him play in, so his behavior is not that off, but I say if he doesn't want to vote or contribute for days that he be Mod-God killed.

[the phantom]

My afternoon engagement was shorter than I expected, so here I am again. I skimmed the thread again, paying especial attention to Boro.

As you know, feelings about people generally change every time you reread, so here's my new suspect list.

1) Valier- See here for my suspicions.

2) Eonwe- In rereading, I just didn't like the way Boro talked about him, and then ignored him while grouping him with his innocents.

I think it is likely that either Val or Eonwe is a Penguin. Unfortunately, I have a suspicion that if we find one of the two guilty, the other is definitely innocent.

I also agree that it might be a waste to vote for Eonwe at this point seeing as he will possibly get slain by the Mods.

3) Jenn- See here for my suspicions.

I won't list any more suspicions right now. I don't want things to be too muddled.

[Firefoot]

Hum. I'm not really feeling any less tired now than earlier, and since I'm not particularly concerned about dying before the next Day, I'm going to wait till then to post my thoughts. Sorry, all. For now you'll just have to take my word for it that I'm not voting randomly...

++Valier

[Roa_Aoife]

Eonwe, you do realize that if you don't vote today, you'll be removed from the game, don't you?

[Diamond18]

JennyHallu

#15

Seems mostly banter and in character. Makes a comment about the Cobbler being useless without werecreatures.

#30

Strange, this opening line seems more like an opening post opening line, but it's her second post. She again directs a bit of banter tp's way. Then makes the comment about getting past gifted talk which was later described and debated over as being a conversation squelcher.

#34

Denies the squelching accusation, elaborates a bit on her stance. Refers to a Diamond quote and me knowing better... I assume it was about me talking about the Seer letting us know about the Cobbler.

#39

Just a bit of banter, in response to someone's quote (not credited) which seems to be accusing her of the avian-flu.

#53

Points out a flaw in Mac's math and says it makes him seem suspicious.

#66

Votes for tp, based on his comment about Mac being innocent for undisclosed reasons.

#76

Now finds Roa suspicious due to her Boro analysis.

#83

Follows through with a vote and enteres into the analysis/summary debate of Roa and Boro.

#87

Continues to poke holes in Roa's quotes.

#126

Quite conveinently states that she'd have helped save Lal but for her usage-uppage of her retractable quota. This does seem a bit suspicious, especially since the way she used her retractions was a bit careless. (I should talk, I know.)

#155

Says she won't be around because she's... drunk. (Tsk!) Returns to her early suspicions of Mac citing Boro's trust of him as all the more reason to suspect him.

#171

Votes along these lines.

Conclusion:

I feel that Jenny is either a very preoccupied ordo or the Cobbler.

[Anguirel]

Wei-irrd. This is not Firefoot as I know her. She's possessed by some wack Bacchic demon. Or something. Exams, perchance? Pneumonia? Unrequited love?

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by Roa

Eonwe, you do realize that if you don't vote today, you'll be removed from the game, don't you?

But of course. That happenins in 28 minutes, too!

[the phantom]

Since you're the Seer, Lalaith, and are certain to die tonight, just let me know if you want me to change my vote to someone else. I think that you should be allowed to give an order of two if you wish simply because of your position and the fact that this is your last chance.

Of course, you might not want to have a say in this. It's possible such a decision might be dumped on me tomorrow as the lone proven innocent, and I can already tell you that I'm not looking forward to it. So I can understand if you'd rather not order us around. It's up to you. I'm just letting you know that I'm willing to vote with you if you request it.

[Anguirel]

Just out of interest: does anybody sympathise with my lone Audrey Hepburn position on Diamond at all? Am I just a soapbox-dwelling madman?

If the answers to the two questions posed above are respectively no and yes, then...I'll be even more convinced I'm right...

[Roa_Aoife]

And so, I shall vote as well:

++Jenny

I'll do the analysis of Ang tonight, and post it first thing in the morning. I'm also going to do Naria. Just because she's a werewolf Ninja.

Current vote count

Valier: 3
Jenny: 3
Mac: 1
Diamond: 1

Valier is currently in the lead as she reached three votes first. Unless I left someone out.

EDIT: bunch of cross posts

[Lalaith]

Thanks Phantom.
Actually, I am not sure how to vote, as I have no definite suspects. I think many of you innocents feel the same, which is why it has been quiet today. It is always thus, I find, after being given a bit of concrete evidence, everything else seems so nebulous.
Here are my thoughts on those unknowns that remain. Of course, I have told you all I know for sure so they are only the thoughts of a clueless innocent. But at least you all know that they are honest opinions.
Anguirel - Roa_Aoife - amber/red. Do not lynch either of these people yet, as they are too useful as innocents. But they do worry me, so please watch them. Roa especially. She was a toss-up with phantom in “who to dream about”. I can easily envisage a scenario whereby a WP-Roa would spot my attack on a WP-Boro, and then go for him herself in order to create “a row” (always off-putting to onlookers, especially on Day One).
Diamond18 – Valier, Macalaure -- flickering green straight to red. One minute I think they’re guilty as anything, the next that they’re innocent as lambs. Which makes me think that one of them is the Cobbler.
Encaitare – red. I don’t know why, she hasn’t posted much, but I’m getting bad, callous vibes off this one. I’d vote for her today if there was any point.
Eonwe - amber. Contributes next to nothing – would a WP be so non-committed? One thing I don’t like, he seems very sure that he’s going to survive, as he is going to get a better handle “in the next few days.”
Naria – amber/red. Would a WP make so many careless mistakes? Well, yes, perhaps a WP Naria would, trying to combat the Ninja-Naria image.
No light, because I don’t have a handle on at all: dancing spawn of ungoliant - JennyHallu. Firefoot. Of the three, I find Firefoot the most suspicious and Spawn the least.

Oh, and I asked about whether to reveal or not, for a reason. It was obvious that I should reveal. I wanted to see who agreed. Ironically, it was only phantom who gave a free and frank reply along these lines.

As for my Logical Hunter point, posted earlier: this principle, going by yesterday’s voting, makes Di and Mac look quite good (both voted for innocents at a time when they looked like they were going to be lynched), also Ang, as he switched his vote to an innocent, trying to get them lynched….but Valier does not great, throwing her vote away at a crucial time on someone very unlikely to get lynched.

[Anguirel]

One other thing about Eonwe-the poor chap's male. Careful, Macalaure, we two who have known feminisation would not wish to inflict it on another, eh?

As some of you may remember, I far prefer being accused of being an evil fiend (which implies a measure of sadistic cunning) to being a Cobbler (which implies blundering imbecility.) I am deeply hurt and shall weep by myself in the dunce's corner.

Or I would if it wasn't for Maria Callas. What a woman! Never thought she would be such brilliant Werewolf music! Perhaps the excitement her voice is causing in me is destroying my ability to reason, hence the Cobbler accusations...

[Valier]

Ang would you rather I just call you a Penguin? Would that make you feel better?

[Anguirel]

Yep. Thanks Valier, I know I can always rely on you to cheer me up.

[Valier]

That's all we need around here is a cheerful Penguin

[Valier]

I know I'm flooding, but where is everyone? There is only 4o minutes left!

[Roa_Aoife]

Jenny Summary

Day 1

1st post - points out that the cobbler is useless with out penguins, asks everyone to move away from cobbler discussion, some in character nonsense, supposed nonsense accusation of phantom.

2nd - Second nonsense accusation of phantom, makes a point about her innocense, asks people to move away from gifted talk

3rd - response to Boromir's mild suspicion of her, says she's trying to move the village away from the cobbler talk to penguin catching, thanks Boromir from moving his focus from the cobbler to penguins, says she missed Diamond quote, thinks Diamond should know better, remark about work

4th - nonsense response to Kitanna's nonsense accusation

5th - Corrects Mac's math, says that we shouldn't assume randomness in equations, says we are capable of analyzing who might be innocent, and who isn't

6th - Says she may or may not be back before deadline, claims retractions, vote phantom for "innocense tests" and poor reasoning

7th - Thinks she'll leave her vote where it is, doesn't like Roa's analysis of Boromir, thinks it makes Roa suspicious

8th - Decides Roa's attack on Boromir makes her either penguin or cobbler, changes vote to Roa

9th - Question's Roa's statement about Ang's assumption of innocense

10th - Pops in after Lal is safe "Way to go, guys. I'd have helped, but I already used my retractable."

11th - Says she'll be quiet today, is slightly tipsy, thinks Boromir's reaction to Mac makes Mac suspicious

12th - Says she won't be around, votes Mac, sites Boromir's reaction as reason for vote

Analysis

Several things stand out to me on this (and feel free to say that I'm being nitpicky or seeing something that isn't there, but I don't promise to believe you. :P)

First, twice in a row she gives silly reasons for suspecting phantom, now known innocent. This would be ignorable as nonsense, except that she voted for him later, simply for using a test to look for innocents. The fact that she singled him out early on, and later voted for him , seems like she's slowly trying to find a reason to "get" him.

Second, Boromir started off by being mildly suspicious of her, then changed his mind later on and moved her to his "innocent" list. This could be some touch and go wolf interaction, trying to make each other looks good.

Third, in her fifth posts she says that we are capable of discerning innocents for ourselves with out being random, but in her sixth posts she votes for the phantom because he was trying to discern innocents.

Fourth, she turned on me as soon as I started an attack on Boromir, going so far as to declare me a penguin trying to make up a case for an innocent and question my statements about other players.

Fifth, her "popping in" just after Lal is safe to say, "Oh, I wish I could have helped, but, you know how it is..." seems fairly pointless. I was around, talking making suggestions, when my help was very limited- I had already voted for Boromir, so retracting to him would help, and I couldn't vote Kitanna after her reveal, so I couldn't help by retracting to her. Others, such as Kitanna, also stuck around, even though there was little or nothing they could do. To me, it seems she's trying to preempt suspicion for not helping.

Sixth, she "popped in" again, and voted for Mac, someone who is very unlikely to be lynched today. Seems like a safe vote.

Seventh, there are her attempts to turn the conversation away from the cobbler, which I've seen in another cobbler named SPM, who wanted the whole village to believe the cobbler was dead.

And finally, her statement about being innocent- the last time I saw her make this statement she was a newly turned wolf.

So, the conclusion this leads me to is that she is either fowl or faker. (Read: penguin or cobbler.)

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by Valier

but I say if he doesn't want to vote or contribute for days that he be Mod-God killed.

Oi! Yes, its true I'm not a top poster, but that's no cuase for a mod-god lynching! And I do want to contribute, but am just bideing my time.

Mac, yes I'd thougt of B88's lists, and hoped nobody would notice that. It does put me in a bit of a pinch, but I can't really defend myself, as I don't know what was happening in Boromirs mind.

[Naria]

Hi all. Sorry for my absence. I've been packing all day getting ready to move(RL).

As you all know Day ones are horrible and for me at least, Day twos aren't much better . I have to say though that in light of all the analyses done on Jenny she does look rather evil at this point. I have played in a couple of games with her now and she usually has a lot more to say. I found myself un nerved by her "pop" up vote for Mac with little reasoning(also another thing that she doesn't do) She usally has really good reasoning behind her thoughts and votes. She also has played in the manner that she is now(whilst being a wolf). She is crafty and can pull off a good bluff. That in itself is why I will be voting for

++JennyHallu

[Encaitare]

All that has been said about Jenny has only supported my suspicions.

++ JENNYHALLU