Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Findëasëa · 06-21-2006, 11:48 AM

Ack, this ship is the worst workplace I have seen in all my years. Murder, slavery, werewolves, and a goose! (If my boss ever saw the state of things here...) On second thought, I guess there are some cheery points, like seclusion…

There have been a few things that I have found interesting so far.

Yes, it is day one, so some degree of joking about lynches and randomness is to be expected, but it seems that the lynch of Eomer could be a great way for a wolf to hide on day one. I also find Eomer’s response to the votes interesting.

Quote:

Eomer- As to today's exchanges, nothing has been too interesting. Although I would say that there are typical old-fashioned masks being hidden behind. Formendacil's "I hate Day One" rhetoric is always hard to make sense of; and Lhuna's "I vote for Eomer" is nearly as traditional. I would put Nilp in with these two but — for obvious reasons — his style is highly unwolvish.

He makes a valid point, it would be quite easy for any of these people to just act as they tend to on day one to hide their newfangled fangs. I do not think that this will cause me to vote for anyone today, but I think it might be useful later in the game when we have more information to go on.

I will go review more and vote in a bit.

Holbytlass · 06-21-2006, 12:05 PM

Right now my suspect list would be:
Formendacil-'don't kill me, I have a job"
Nilp/Durelin-suicidal lovers?
SpM-that goose!
jenny-points out real lover would be quiet than has True Love talk in her post
Gurthang-biblical love verse

All of these people have things in their posts that seem to be bluffing-some blatantly out there and some in my mind.

Durelin · 06-21-2006, 12:46 PM

Hmm...All is going according to my ninja plans?

Wouldn't it be lovely if we lynched his shadow clone...

Actually I would've preferred to lynch Mr. Gander.

I do enjoy my fowl. Roasted, preferably.

**The Saucepan Man** · 06-21-2006, 01:00 PM

The time has come for me to vote. And unfortunately there's not a great deal to go on.

I'm sticking with my earlier list of "under the radar" types. And I have narrowed it down further. Lalaith seems to be committing herself more in what she says and Taliesin has not returned since earlier in the Day.

So it's between Firefoot, Caran and Holbytlass. Firefoot and Caran have established a presence but actually said little of substance. However, both have given fairly weak reasoning for their votes and I can't help but think that a Wolf would try to do more to justify her vote (even on Day 1).

Holby, on the other hand, has said more of substance but remained fairly non-committal. Some flim-flam in her first post, followed by a list of votes so far and little else. Then some blow-by-blow analyses of what each passenger has said. Some analysis, but doesn't commit herself. All ways in which a Wolf can maintain herself as part of the discussion without giving too much away. And I am suspicous of the way that she is seeking to justify her suspicions by reference to supposed "bluffs" that were largely part of the "in character" banter.

Yup. The whale hunter gets my vote today. As I said, it's no job for a lady, so I can only assume that she has supernatural strength on her side.

+ + HOLBYTLASS

And now I am off to bag the Captain's cabin, and so bid you all adieu.

Firefoot · 06-29-2006, 07:09 AM

Thoughts about Durelin:

Day 1 - Banter with/vote for Nilp and continued jesting about the goose would be an easy way for a wolf to hide. She is around, but doesn't contribute much.

Day 2 - Her comment about the throw-away vote for Nilp, I don't see as having much significance. It might be honest, might not. This comment:

Quote:

Who said wolves can't be logical?

has never sat well with me for whatever reason. I'm not really getting anything from her musings about Jenny as hunter/not hunter. She votes for Holby without listing a reason; the only place she had previously mentioned her had been about a page ago:

Quote:

I think Holbytlass is a good candidate for wolfishness because: 1. her posts are always somehow attempts to analyze. 2. her vote for Nilp to tie up the vote...yeah, I know, she knew she would be in the hotseat for that.

I'm not sure her reasoning is that great, but at least the vote wasn't out of the blue as I had supposed. Incidentally, her comment about Rune from the same post was:

Quote:

And then there's Rune, an Eomer voter. He's posted just enough to stay involved, but not enough to draw attention to himself. His need for an early vote itself is not incriminating at all, and completely understandable, and it is also understandable that he make a rather random vote, but...why Eomer when he already had one vote? If you're gonna make a random vote why not at least make it a bit even or fair...

I could see this as either innocent or guilty.

Day 3 - She comes back with an explanation:

Quote:

I voted for Holby because I was much more certain that Lhuna was innocent. Lhuna was Lhuna, and not wolfish Lhuna, in my opinion.

Fair enough, I suppose. In the same post she claims that she doubted Jenny had been the Hunter. Her suspects become Rune, Holby, Ang, and possibly Taliesin; she decided to leave Sauce off the list. She votes for Rune.

Day 4 -

Quote:

Me - (Scary thought: he's [Sauce] the innocent lover and knows no more about the wolves than most of us do... I wonder how much the wolf lover has told the innocent lover. Hm...)

Durelin - Just goes to show you how important communication is in any relationship...

This definitely just sent up warning bells in my head. Durelin's been dancing around Sauce for a while, he's always been just off her suspicion list... what if they're the lovers?

This comment of Durelin's is rather strange:

Quote:

Okay, so I didn't read anything before the end of YesterDay yet.....

This definitely does not seem wolvish. What kind of wolf wouldn't know what was going on? And a little later:

Quote:

For some reason, I keep forgetting that Holby revealed herself...

Same thing. Unless... someone paraphrased/told her what was going on and what needed to happen? Then she votes for Rune again

Day 5 - I didn't see anything particularly worthy of note.

Okay, going back to a Durelin/Sauce possibility. It could explain where Durelin was getting her Rune suspicions from - Sauce tipped her off? Wolvish compatriots wouldn't know the difference, and she would just look like an innocent with a lucky guess. I would need to go back and look at Sauce's posts (oh, boy) to see what he's said about Durelin before I made up my mind, though.

Kath · 06-29-2006, 09:16 AM

To my critics: I know, I have a bad habit of forgetting all about the game until around 7, and then using what other people say rather than coming up with my own ideas. Tis why morm always ends up suspecting me.

Still, I have some time on my hands right now, so I shall go about doing a couple of those analyses I said I'd do, starting with Glirdan.

Post 12 - drunk sailor style, throws occupation based suspicion my way.

Post 27 - complains about the rum being gone (love that line

) and then says and eye should be kept on Gurthang, again all in drunk style though, so unlikely to be serious.

Post 40 - votes for me. Seems to be a random early Day 1 vote.

Post 106 - says Eomer's death wasn't a surprise as the Wolves wouldn't have wanted him around for long, which is a fair point.

Post 132 - gives a voting tally, says we should not look at Nilp voters now but wait until we see how they vote again. Thinks it is more likely that wolves would have picked up on the Eomer bandwagon than the Nilp one. His reasoning for not looking at the Nilp voters was that they were more likely to have random reasons and while this is true, I don't see why the wolves could not have come up with random reasons as well. Before Rune's death I would have said that it would be a very bold wolf who votes Eomer in the Day and then kills him in the Night, but it seems we've already had one of those, which may make TGWBS a wolf as well if the same 'oh they'd never do that' reasoning was applied.

Post 135 - Analyses Tali finding some things to be suspicious of. Those points aren't of much use now as Tali has been revealed as innocent, but there is something strange in the way Glirdan picks up on the seeming inconsistency between Tali's not wanting to vote Eomer and then doing it. It is possible to change your mind in an hour or so, seeing new posts and developing new ideas. Glirdan didn't seem to take that into account. In this post he also suddenly backtracks on his earlier decision not to look at the Nilp voters after this was challenged by morm. Perhaps a little hypocritical after the suspicion he just put on Tali for a seemingly similar thing.

Post 136 - analyses Rune and decides there is nothing supicious other than him purposefully bandwaggoning. This could be Glirdan analysing Rune to make sure he's mentioned him, and making sure to find mention some suspicion to serve him well if Rune ever died. Has a suspect list of Tali followed by Rune, presumably because they're the only people he looked at. Defends his analyses against Gurthang.

Post 139 - analyses Lhuna, finding nothing suspicious other than her vote for Eomer, which being Lhuna was likely due to history. Mentions that all the Eomer voters had been very quiet and suggests that is kept in mind, though why I'm not sure. Seems to be an attempt at causing suspicion where there is none.

Post 140 - analyses TGWBS, again finding nothing other than a comment about wanting to live in harmony with the wolves, obviously an in-character comment. This though causes TGWBS to jump up his list above Rune, who he seemed to have more reason for suspicion over. Again possibly Glirdan trying to keep Rune as a suspect but make sure he wouldn't get lynched.

Post 143 - analyses Diamond, and was the first to suggest the first poster is often wolvish. Doesn't like that she went after Eomer, but I think that was biased by hindsight. Then finds her less suspicious, before finding the reasoning behind her vote for Eomer very suspicious. I then become a little confused, as his list had two TGWBS's on it, one supposedly meant to be Diamond. Either way, again Rune is bumped down the list. Again defends his analyses, this time against Caran, saying it used to be his usual way. Did anyone ever check on that?

Post 146 - bit of banter with Diamond, saying that even if it is not true that wolves post first, she is still suspicious. Fair enough as his suspicion of her does not rest solely on that point.

Post 148 - again banter, this time with Caran, saying he wants to be seen as equal with everyone else. Could be a wolf trying to ensure a good level of suspicion, or one trying to ingratiate himself with people he knows to be innocent.

Post 193 - agrees that it would be interesting to see whether the wolves post within the first 10 posts (as Glirdan himself often does) but says no one will do it. It is possible that he has a bad record with that as a wolf, and doesn't wish people to do it in case it brings suspicion upon him, but that is rather tenuous. Says his vote for me was purely random based on occupation, I think in answer to morm though I can't work that out. Confused by TGWBS's 'Glirdan = Not sense. Good' post, understandable I suppose though the meaning seemed obvious. Or maybe I'm just too used to TGWBS. Finds Holby worth looking at due to her vote for Nilp, you know, those people you weren't going to look at? Anyway, has some good points and at this time is unlikely I think to have suspected her as Seer if he is a wolf, so it could just be trying to support suspicion of a known (to him) innocent. Starts to pull Rune back up his suspect list, perhaps due to real suspicion, perhaps due to needing to be seen to be noticing him.

Post 196 - does a list of how many posts each person has done and separates them into groups and highlights Eomer and Nilp voters, drawwing suspicions from it. I'm not sure how this works, as the groups aren't evenly split, and those he chooses as suspicious seem odd. While there are 3 Eomer voters in the first list he only picks two of them, deliberately ignoring TGWBS (possible protection?), and from the middle group he picks more Nilp voters than Eomer voters, even though he has previously stated that the former shouldn't be looked at yet. Decides to vote for an Eomer voter because 3 Nilp voters have already been voted for, and picks Lhuna over Tali.

Post 222 - says Jenny's death was random, but then argues against that, saying the wolves may have thought her to be the Seer. Bit odd, he seems almost to be arguing against the idea that Jenny's death was random, except that no one had actually mentioned it. In fact they'd had no opportunity to as he was the second poster that Day after TGWBS, and all he said was 'Alack'.

Post 237 - says he wasn't surprised Sauce would start to be suspected, nor that it was Di doing the suspecting. Says that he himself has been suspicious of him, odd as there hasn't been a single mention so far, but thinks he should be left alive as he is a very useful innocent. It's strange reasoning since most of us know the trials of a wolvish Sauce, and he is more dangerous when evil than helpful when good. Some banter with Rune over past games, again possibly just keeping up appearances, seeming quite happy to drop part of his suspicions. Explains why he asked TGWBS to explain his statement.

Post 244 - annoyed at lack of talking. Thinks morm has been getting too bold and then begins to build a case against him, finding his 'gunning' for just three people suspicious, especially since he is so certain over his suspects. Then develops the theory that both Ang and morm could be wolves, doing some wolf on wolf voting (disproved now by morm's death). Says Rune (what happened to the suspicion over him?) and my points make him inclined to suspect TGWBS, mostly due to his quietness.

Post 264 - defends himself against Tali, saying he isn't trying to lead the village but simply give his opinions. Well fair enough, but he hasn't half talked a lot. Also says he wasn't the only one unsurprised by Eomer's death, again in answer to Tali. Also defends his analyses of Lhuna and Rune, saying he had decided to find Eomer voters suspicious, but found those two the least suspicious of the 5. Strange reasoning, if you don't find someone suspicious, don't put them on your list. Has some odd reasoning over Sauce still being alive, that the wolves should have killed him the Night before. Yet earlier he has said it is likely the wolves thought Jenny a Gifted, so why would they choose someone less likely? Uses this reasoning to explain his suspicion of Sauce, something I really don't understand and think quite suspicious, as if he is trying to build up a case with nothing to use as foundations, but is determined to do it anyway. Could be an innocent, as most people end up suspecting Sauce eventually, but could be a wolf trying to cause people to suspect him. Also seems to be a rather sudden switch from thinking it would be better to leave him alive in case he's innocent.

Post 266 - votes morm on a gut suspicion, for being too bold. After the previous posts worrying over Sauce, it seems odd that he voted for morm instead. Perhaps he was more confident of getting a bandwagon behind morm than Sauce, which worked.

Post 316 - says he had thought Holby innocent but not the Seer. Why did he say this? There was no need for it, we know he didn't suspect her but pointing it out is odd. Also complains that she spoke about Sauce in her final post. Again mentions the dilemma over Sauce, whether to leave him alive in case innocent or to kill him in case guilty. Asks Diamond to analyse him, perhaps because he can't find the reasoning that would make a case, or because this way he knows it will be done by an innocent (presuming that Diamond is here) and so he can't be picked up on it later.

Post 336 - says Di's analysis has convinced him that Sauce is a wolf and Di is not, but that there could be some way the two are working together. He never makes a concrete statement. You think he does with the first bit but then always finds a way to challlenge it. Is inclined to think Ang innocent except for his theory that one of Ang and morm are wolves and since morm was proven innocent it would follow that Ang is a wolf. Then switches to Ang to Sauce being the wolves because they've been flying under the radar. Lots of random suspicion seemingly designed to keep Sauce in the frame.

Post 344 - analyses Ang, finding some of his early banter about killing the pirates odd. After this sees nothing suspicious, and can't work out why morm felt that way. Then suspects Ang for pointing out the obvious that the wolves would be in the bandwagons. Again hypocritical as Glirdan himself did that at the beginning of Day 2. After this though decides that Ang is innocent, though it is possible he is pulling a double bluff - again nothing concrete. Having lost one suspect, decides to look at me.

Post 351 - decides not to bother finishing his Ang analysis, either because he has decided he is innocent and can't build up a case, or because he is a fellow wolf and going any further would put too much suspicion on him. Switches to me, saying that I use other peoples views to form my suspicions (yup) and that I don't put out my own theories (often yup). So fair points there. Thinks Ang's vote for Eomer could be viewed as suspicious as it would make for a perfect defense if pulled up on it. Again some hypocrisy, as after mentioning that I use other people to form opinions, he does the same thing over Sauce via Di.

Post 356 - votes Sauce, having gone against his earlier idea that it is better to leave him alive in case innocent due to Di's analysis.

Post 365 - again an early post, saying he thinks Di the lover (overexcitement from a wolf glad to be rid of the wildcards?) but finds Fin's death odd. I don't like these questions over why people died, they seem too much like a wolf trying to gauge the reaction from the village so that he can later agree with it.

Post 368 - claims memory loss over Fin being a known innocent in the manner of Durelin. If he knows her to be innocent then it would be a good tactic. Still arguing that Di was the Lover.

Post 391 - says his suspicion of Sauce has eased after the analyses, perhaps because Di is no longer there to aid him in his crusade, or indeed because they are fellow wolves and he feels that he has put enough pressure on to be safe if Sauce is lynched. Again mentions suspicion of me for not using my own reasoning. Still some suspicion of Ang because of what morm said, ahem, hypocrisy again I feel. Nervous of Tali and Caran because they could be the innocent Lover, a fair point. Thinks Gurthang and Durelin are probably innocent, though we seem to have no reasoning for this.

Post 392 - officially clears Tali, the first concrete thing I have seen from Glirdan all game, so that in itself seems odd to me. Tali was cleared for not defending anyone, but he's a clever player, and it is possible that he is flying so completely under the radar so as not to incriminate his wolvish comrade.

Oh thank goodness the boy's stopped talking! Or should I say the wolf, as I have become rather convinced that he is one. I've played a few games with Glirdan and I'm sure I've never seen him so flip-floppy. He accuses people of doing something and suspects them for it, whilst doing the same thing himself. He has no concrete suspicions at all. He attacks often with gut feelings rather than logic, and he has not been at all consistent over any of his suspicions.

Now that took so long I am going to have to go. I hope to be back to analyse Ang or Sauce or both, though I think my ideas on them will be based on whether Glirdan is innocent or a wolf.

Firefoot · 06-29-2006, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Actually of the two I feel more worried about Durelin.

Me too. Since (if they were lovers) they would both die anyway, I would definitely say lynch Durelin. Sauce (if innocent) is way too helpful to lynch and then be wrong about. Of course, it's possible that he's a wolf and not affiliated with Durelin, but I have hitherto thought him mostly innocent and am looking at connections. As for him going through all this work... well, if he astounds us all into thinking him innocent, I reckon it works...

Durelin · 06-29-2006, 09:57 AM

Quote:

It could explain where Durelin was getting her Rune suspicions from - Sauce tipped her off? Wolvish compatriots wouldn't know the difference, and she would just look like an innocent with a lucky guess.

Cause of course I am completely unable to feel out who the wolves are in any situation on my own...

Excuse my hormonal rage, but really, I'm offended that you suggest that I need SPaM feeding me clues to do anything right...

Go ahead, lynch me for my indignation.

I feel like going with Ang on Firefoot right now, but...

Glirdan's been bumped up to my main suspect because of Gurthang's wailings about the gallows. I don't think a wolf would pay so much attention to the fact that a good number of people are suspicious of him, particularly when there aren't yet any votes for him. Also, Glirdan's latest analysis of Taliesin is a little...random, at least to me. Trying to turn eyes back to the known innocents is indeed a little odd at this point.

Alrighty then...my next post will probably include my vote.

Edit: Cross-posted with Firefoot.

Findëasëa · 06-21-2006, 01:01 PM

I see Lalaith’s point now. Since the lovers are working for their own benefit foremost, they may be less subtle when it comes to voting in order to protect their lover’s life and their own. It still seems to me that both of their second loyalties lay with the wolves, however, so this may still cloud the clarity of the voting record. I didn’t find much to go on that would warrant a strong vote for anyone, most of the discussion today was, although quite amusing, altogether inconclusive. I find Glirdan’s actions a bit suspicious, but I am not sure that a wolf would risk being so bold. He stayed in character in his posts and made a nonsense vote. I would imagine that a werewolf might be a bit more wary of not saying anything of value. I do not want to rule him out as suspect, but I don’t want to vote for him today.

Holbytlass · 06-21-2006, 01:15 PM

Morm-->Glirdan
Lhuna-->Eomer
Rhune-->Eomer
Glirdan-->Kath
Nilp-->Nilp
Engels-->Eomer
Durelin-->Nilp
Diamond-->Eomer
Anguirel-->Nilp
Lalaith-->Form
Caran-->JennyHallu
Firefoot-->Nilp
Spm-->Holby

Glirdan-1, Kath-1, Eomer-4, Nilp-4, Form 1, JennyHallu-1, Holby-1

I won't be back so will have to vote now. The voting for Eomer is spite to me for past grievances so I will break the tie and vote

++Nilp

Duerlin's playing with Nilp is one thing but her actual vote for him is another. While I would rather vote Durelin, I;m not going to add another name to the list. I think there is something going on between them. I know I'll be in the hotseat tomorrow for breaking the tye but I won't sit here and watch a person go down just for past greivances.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 06-21-2006, 01:21 PM

Mormegil for Glirdan. Says that his posting style is annoying. Nothing to go on at that point, I suppose. As has been pointed out though, Glirdan is a likely vote-getter in any case.

Lhuna for Eomer. Lhuna always votes for me. It seems quite unfair, especially as I had not posted at that point.

Rune for Eomer. The succeeding post to Lhuna's vote. May be telling.

Glirdan for Kath. For no reason. Throwing his vote away, perhaps to seem random and individual.

Nilp for Nilp. He's not a wolf because he knows that the village will leap on a Nilp-bandwagon, because it's so easy for the village to do that.

TGWBS for Eomer. In character. Somewhat dangerous to do this, though, because of the building momentum.

Durelin for Nilp. A nice, easy vote.

Diamond for Eomer. Petty, childish and envious.

Anguirel for Nilp. Explicitly wants to save me. This is fair as I will probably be more useful than The Suicidal One.

Lalaith for Formendacil. She might suspect him because of his lazy attitude to the first Day.

Caranlondien for Jenny. Apparently because she would make a good wolf.

Firefoot for Nilp. Exasperated vote.

SPM for Holby. Probably because of these classic recap posts Holby is fond of.

Holby for Nilp. Usual reasons.

So what do I think of the votes so far? The Eomer-bandwagon is bitter, twisted, and very possibly contains a couple of dark, furry secrets. Out of the Eomer-voters, I am inclined to say that Diamond is most likely to be innocent, because she was always going to vote for me anyway (due to the last game).

The Nilp-bandwagon is more justified. After all, he did vote for himself. Still an easy place to hide, though.

Of the others, Glirdan's for Kath and Caran's for Jenny seem the most suspicious to me.

Glirdan or Caran, Glirdan and Caran. Hmm...

Formendacil · 06-21-2006, 01:35 PM

Okay, I'd really like to say that the reason I've been so quiet today has been Day 1 antipathy... but someone (*mutters about the evil that is plumber*) cut our phone line, and I'm writing this from the public library...

If things go poorly, I may be a virtual Alcarillo for the next couple (or more) days. If they go well, I'll be back to normal for Day 2- including a bit more verbose.

Bit of a pity since this Day 1 actually looks somewhat fun... useless for actually lynching a wolf at this time, of course (unless by blind luck or stupidity on the lupine part, as I've said many a time)- but fun all the same. The whole pirates/ninja debate is most amusing, and it's good to see Nilp on form again. The good Catholic in me hates to see a noble tradition die.

Now, this day being nearer its end than its beginning, and being the good voting citizen that I am, now is a good time to vote.

++ Lalaith

Because she voted for me.

Yes, it's incriminating.

It's also Day 1.

'tis the best evidence I've got... she's the only person I know who's voting for a known innocent.

JennyHallu · 06-21-2006, 01:47 PM

Terribly suspicious, Form, that you both praise Nilp and do nothing to help him. Now today's kill shall be either Eomer or Nilp with no way out. Village! You're making a terrible mistake!

Eomer's being lynched out of spite, and Nilp in the biggest example of misapplied logic I've seen today! (And I work for the Army...so that's saying something) How often does Nilp self-vote? Every time! How often is he a wolf? No more than anyone else!

*sigh* I'm going to go put a claim in on the Captain's cabin. Weslamond, guard the door, will you?

Taliesin · 06-21-2006, 01:10 PM

Well well, time to get more serious.

I'm not going to follow this Eomer bandwagon just because of his job,
it seems rather silly to kill someone who might be a good asset to the village for roleplaying reasons.

SpM is the loudest, most helpful villager so far. It seems rather safe to follow him, except the fact that I don't like being on the Saucie's list of doom

. Then again, my memory is telling me not to trust SpM too early. If he's on our side, great.. if he's not however, he is very dangerous to have around too long.

Voting for Nilp on a day one seems like the easiest option, but there's always the argument that he gets more usefull after the first day. I'd give him the benefit of the doubt and see for myself is that's true. And the Durelin / Nilp tension, meh, I wouldn't give it too much attention.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Findëasëa

I may be misunderstanding the role, but I thought that both lovers have to be left alive at the end of the game, and since one is a werewolf and the village can only win when all werewolves are dead. This means that the werewolves will have to win for the lovers to win.

I think this is the case. If one lover dies, the other goes down with him/her. So naturally both lovers have to be left alive. So it is in the werewolves favour to let the lovers stay alive.

That's it for now, I'll be back just before the deadline to cast a vote. I'm off daydreaming for a bit.

*walks away.. mumbling something about 'goal'...*

edit: xposted with everyone since #80

JennyHallu · 06-21-2006, 01:15 PM

I'm very unsure of whom to vote for. I am absolutely against both the Eomer and Nilp bandwagons, as I don't see enough reason to vote for either of them right now. Both bandwagons seem fishy to me, and tomorrow I shall be taking a very close look at who's on them.

Frankly, the group that urged and nagged Eomer to play with the full intention of getting him purposelessly lynched Day 1 irks me. Unless they've got a reason to think him wolvish...which I haven't once seen...that's really just kind of rude.

JennyHallu · 06-21-2006, 01:17 PM

DON'T VOTE NILP, guys. Not without at least a smidgeon of evidence against him!

I think Eomer likely innocent as well.

Therefore, I'm following Saucie's lead, especially since I felt her analysis misconstrued some of what was said today.

++Holby

If all those who have yet to vote join us, we can save both Nilp and Eomer!

06-21-2006, 12:05 PM	#2
Holbytlass Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: May 2003 Location: The Party Tree Posts: 1,042	Right now my suspect list would be: Formendacil-'don't kill me, I have a job" Nilp/Durelin-suicidal lovers? SpM-that goose! jenny-points out real lover would be quiet than has True Love talk in her post Gurthang-biblical love verse All of these people have things in their posts that seem to be bluffing-some blatantly out there and some in my mind. __________________ Holby is an actual flesh-and-blood person, right? Not, say a sock-puppet of Nilp’s, by any chance? ~Nerwen, WWCIII

06-21-2006, 01:00 PM	#4
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	The time has come for me to vote. And unfortunately there's not a great deal to go on. I'm sticking with my earlier list of "under the radar" types. And I have narrowed it down further. Lalaith seems to be committing herself more in what she says and Taliesin has not returned since earlier in the Day. So it's between Firefoot, Caran and Holbytlass. Firefoot and Caran have established a presence but actually said little of substance. However, both have given fairly weak reasoning for their votes and I can't help but think that a Wolf would try to do more to justify her vote (even on Day 1). Holby, on the other hand, has said more of substance but remained fairly non-committal. Some flim-flam in her first post, followed by a list of votes so far and little else. Then some blow-by-blow analyses of what each passenger has said. Some analysis, but doesn't commit herself. All ways in which a Wolf can maintain herself as part of the discussion without giving too much away. And I am suspicous of the way that she is seeking to justify her suspicions by reference to supposed "bluffs" that were largely part of the "in character" banter. Yup. The whale hunter gets my vote today. As I said, it's no job for a lady, so I can only assume that she has supernatural strength on her side. + + HOLBYTLASS And now I am off to bag the Captain's cabin, and so bid you all adieu. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!

06-29-2006, 09:16 AM	#6
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	To my critics: I know, I have a bad habit of forgetting all about the game until around 7, and then using what other people say rather than coming up with my own ideas. Tis why morm always ends up suspecting me. Still, I have some time on my hands right now, so I shall go about doing a couple of those analyses I said I'd do, starting with Glirdan. Post 12 - drunk sailor style, throws occupation based suspicion my way. Post 27 - complains about the rum being gone (love that line ) and then says and eye should be kept on Gurthang, again all in drunk style though, so unlikely to be serious. Post 40 - votes for me. Seems to be a random early Day 1 vote. Post 106 - says Eomer's death wasn't a surprise as the Wolves wouldn't have wanted him around for long, which is a fair point. Post 132 - gives a voting tally, says we should not look at Nilp voters now but wait until we see how they vote again. Thinks it is more likely that wolves would have picked up on the Eomer bandwagon than the Nilp one. His reasoning for not looking at the Nilp voters was that they were more likely to have random reasons and while this is true, I don't see why the wolves could not have come up with random reasons as well. Before Rune's death I would have said that it would be a very bold wolf who votes Eomer in the Day and then kills him in the Night, but it seems we've already had one of those, which may make TGWBS a wolf as well if the same 'oh they'd never do that' reasoning was applied. Post 135 - Analyses Tali finding some things to be suspicious of. Those points aren't of much use now as Tali has been revealed as innocent, but there is something strange in the way Glirdan picks up on the seeming inconsistency between Tali's not wanting to vote Eomer and then doing it. It is possible to change your mind in an hour or so, seeing new posts and developing new ideas. Glirdan didn't seem to take that into account. In this post he also suddenly backtracks on his earlier decision not to look at the Nilp voters after this was challenged by morm. Perhaps a little hypocritical after the suspicion he just put on Tali for a seemingly similar thing. Post 136 - analyses Rune and decides there is nothing supicious other than him purposefully bandwaggoning. This could be Glirdan analysing Rune to make sure he's mentioned him, and making sure to find mention some suspicion to serve him well if Rune ever died. Has a suspect list of Tali followed by Rune, presumably because they're the only people he looked at. Defends his analyses against Gurthang. Post 139 - analyses Lhuna, finding nothing suspicious other than her vote for Eomer, which being Lhuna was likely due to history. Mentions that all the Eomer voters had been very quiet and suggests that is kept in mind, though why I'm not sure. Seems to be an attempt at causing suspicion where there is none. Post 140 - analyses TGWBS, again finding nothing other than a comment about wanting to live in harmony with the wolves, obviously an in-character comment. This though causes TGWBS to jump up his list above Rune, who he seemed to have more reason for suspicion over. Again possibly Glirdan trying to keep Rune as a suspect but make sure he wouldn't get lynched. Post 143 - analyses Diamond, and was the first to suggest the first poster is often wolvish. Doesn't like that she went after Eomer, but I think that was biased by hindsight. Then finds her less suspicious, before finding the reasoning behind her vote for Eomer very suspicious. I then become a little confused, as his list had two TGWBS's on it, one supposedly meant to be Diamond. Either way, again Rune is bumped down the list. Again defends his analyses, this time against Caran, saying it used to be his usual way. Did anyone ever check on that? Post 146 - bit of banter with Diamond, saying that even if it is not true that wolves post first, she is still suspicious. Fair enough as his suspicion of her does not rest solely on that point. Post 148 - again banter, this time with Caran, saying he wants to be seen as equal with everyone else. Could be a wolf trying to ensure a good level of suspicion, or one trying to ingratiate himself with people he knows to be innocent. Post 193 - agrees that it would be interesting to see whether the wolves post within the first 10 posts (as Glirdan himself often does) but says no one will do it. It is possible that he has a bad record with that as a wolf, and doesn't wish people to do it in case it brings suspicion upon him, but that is rather tenuous. Says his vote for me was purely random based on occupation, I think in answer to morm though I can't work that out. Confused by TGWBS's 'Glirdan = Not sense. Good' post, understandable I suppose though the meaning seemed obvious. Or maybe I'm just too used to TGWBS. Finds Holby worth looking at due to her vote for Nilp, you know, those people you weren't going to look at? Anyway, has some good points and at this time is unlikely I think to have suspected her as Seer if he is a wolf, so it could just be trying to support suspicion of a known (to him) innocent. Starts to pull Rune back up his suspect list, perhaps due to real suspicion, perhaps due to needing to be seen to be noticing him. Post 196 - does a list of how many posts each person has done and separates them into groups and highlights Eomer and Nilp voters, drawwing suspicions from it. I'm not sure how this works, as the groups aren't evenly split, and those he chooses as suspicious seem odd. While there are 3 Eomer voters in the first list he only picks two of them, deliberately ignoring TGWBS (possible protection?), and from the middle group he picks more Nilp voters than Eomer voters, even though he has previously stated that the former shouldn't be looked at yet. Decides to vote for an Eomer voter because 3 Nilp voters have already been voted for, and picks Lhuna over Tali. Post 222 - says Jenny's death was random, but then argues against that, saying the wolves may have thought her to be the Seer. Bit odd, he seems almost to be arguing against the idea that Jenny's death was random, except that no one had actually mentioned it. In fact they'd had no opportunity to as he was the second poster that Day after TGWBS, and all he said was 'Alack'. Post 237 - says he wasn't surprised Sauce would start to be suspected, nor that it was Di doing the suspecting. Says that he himself has been suspicious of him, odd as there hasn't been a single mention so far, but thinks he should be left alive as he is a very useful innocent. It's strange reasoning since most of us know the trials of a wolvish Sauce, and he is more dangerous when evil than helpful when good. Some banter with Rune over past games, again possibly just keeping up appearances, seeming quite happy to drop part of his suspicions. Explains why he asked TGWBS to explain his statement. Post 244 - annoyed at lack of talking. Thinks morm has been getting too bold and then begins to build a case against him, finding his 'gunning' for just three people suspicious, especially since he is so certain over his suspects. Then develops the theory that both Ang and morm could be wolves, doing some wolf on wolf voting (disproved now by morm's death). Says Rune (what happened to the suspicion over him?) and my points make him inclined to suspect TGWBS, mostly due to his quietness. Post 264 - defends himself against Tali, saying he isn't trying to lead the village but simply give his opinions. Well fair enough, but he hasn't half talked a lot. Also says he wasn't the only one unsurprised by Eomer's death, again in answer to Tali. Also defends his analyses of Lhuna and Rune, saying he had decided to find Eomer voters suspicious, but found those two the least suspicious of the 5. Strange reasoning, if you don't find someone suspicious, don't put them on your list. Has some odd reasoning over Sauce still being alive, that the wolves should have killed him the Night before. Yet earlier he has said it is likely the wolves thought Jenny a Gifted, so why would they choose someone less likely? Uses this reasoning to explain his suspicion of Sauce, something I really don't understand and think quite suspicious, as if he is trying to build up a case with nothing to use as foundations, but is determined to do it anyway. Could be an innocent, as most people end up suspecting Sauce eventually, but could be a wolf trying to cause people to suspect him. Also seems to be a rather sudden switch from thinking it would be better to leave him alive in case he's innocent. Post 266 - votes morm on a gut suspicion, for being too bold. After the previous posts worrying over Sauce, it seems odd that he voted for morm instead. Perhaps he was more confident of getting a bandwagon behind morm than Sauce, which worked. Post 316 - says he had thought Holby innocent but not the Seer. Why did he say this? There was no need for it, we know he didn't suspect her but pointing it out is odd. Also complains that she spoke about Sauce in her final post. Again mentions the dilemma over Sauce, whether to leave him alive in case innocent or to kill him in case guilty. Asks Diamond to analyse him, perhaps because he can't find the reasoning that would make a case, or because this way he knows it will be done by an innocent (presuming that Diamond is here) and so he can't be picked up on it later. Post 336 - says Di's analysis has convinced him that Sauce is a wolf and Di is not, but that there could be some way the two are working together. He never makes a concrete statement. You think he does with the first bit but then always finds a way to challlenge it. Is inclined to think Ang innocent except for his theory that one of Ang and morm are wolves and since morm was proven innocent it would follow that Ang is a wolf. Then switches to Ang to Sauce being the wolves because they've been flying under the radar. Lots of random suspicion seemingly designed to keep Sauce in the frame. Post 344 - analyses Ang, finding some of his early banter about killing the pirates odd. After this sees nothing suspicious, and can't work out why morm felt that way. Then suspects Ang for pointing out the obvious that the wolves would be in the bandwagons. Again hypocritical as Glirdan himself did that at the beginning of Day 2. After this though decides that Ang is innocent, though it is possible he is pulling a double bluff - again nothing concrete. Having lost one suspect, decides to look at me. Post 351 - decides not to bother finishing his Ang analysis, either because he has decided he is innocent and can't build up a case, or because he is a fellow wolf and going any further would put too much suspicion on him. Switches to me, saying that I use other peoples views to form my suspicions (yup) and that I don't put out my own theories (often yup). So fair points there. Thinks Ang's vote for Eomer could be viewed as suspicious as it would make for a perfect defense if pulled up on it. Again some hypocrisy, as after mentioning that I use other people to form opinions, he does the same thing over Sauce via Di. Post 356 - votes Sauce, having gone against his earlier idea that it is better to leave him alive in case innocent due to Di's analysis. Post 365 - again an early post, saying he thinks Di the lover (overexcitement from a wolf glad to be rid of the wildcards?) but finds Fin's death odd. I don't like these questions over why people died, they seem too much like a wolf trying to gauge the reaction from the village so that he can later agree with it. Post 368 - claims memory loss over Fin being a known innocent in the manner of Durelin. If he knows her to be innocent then it would be a good tactic. Still arguing that Di was the Lover. Post 391 - says his suspicion of Sauce has eased after the analyses, perhaps because Di is no longer there to aid him in his crusade, or indeed because they are fellow wolves and he feels that he has put enough pressure on to be safe if Sauce is lynched. Again mentions suspicion of me for not using my own reasoning. Still some suspicion of Ang because of what morm said, ahem, hypocrisy again I feel. Nervous of Tali and Caran because they could be the innocent Lover, a fair point. Thinks Gurthang and Durelin are probably innocent, though we seem to have no reasoning for this. Post 392 - officially clears Tali, the first concrete thing I have seen from Glirdan all game, so that in itself seems odd to me. Tali was cleared for not defending anyone, but he's a clever player, and it is possible that he is flying so completely under the radar so as not to incriminate his wolvish comrade. Oh thank goodness the boy's stopped talking! Or should I say the wolf, as I have become rather convinced that he is one. I've played a few games with Glirdan and I'm sure I've never seen him so flip-floppy. He accuses people of doing something and suspects them for it, whilst doing the same thing himself. He has no concrete suspicions at all. He attacks often with gut feelings rather than logic, and he has not been at all consistent over any of his suspicions. Now that took so long I am going to have to go. I hope to be back to analyse Ang or Sauce or both, though I think my ideas on them will be based on whether Glirdan is innocent or a wolf. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-21-2006, 01:15 PM	#10
Holbytlass Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: May 2003 Location: The Party Tree Posts: 1,042	Morm-->Glirdan Lhuna-->Eomer Rhune-->Eomer Glirdan-->Kath Nilp-->Nilp Engels-->Eomer Durelin-->Nilp Diamond-->Eomer Anguirel-->Nilp Lalaith-->Form Caran-->JennyHallu Firefoot-->Nilp Spm-->Holby Glirdan-1, Kath-1, Eomer-4, Nilp-4, Form 1, JennyHallu-1, Holby-1 I won't be back so will have to vote now. The voting for Eomer is spite to me for past grievances so I will break the tie and vote ++Nilp Duerlin's playing with Nilp is one thing but her actual vote for him is another. While I would rather vote Durelin, I;m not going to add another name to the list. I think there is something going on between them. I know I'll be in the hotseat tomorrow for breaking the tye but I won't sit here and watch a person go down just for past greivances. __________________ Holby is an actual flesh-and-blood person, right? Not, say a sock-puppet of Nilp’s, by any chance? ~Nerwen, WWCIII

06-21-2006, 01:21 PM	#11
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Votes so far Mormegil for Glirdan. Says that his posting style is annoying. Nothing to go on at that point, I suppose. As has been pointed out though, Glirdan is a likely vote-getter in any case. Lhuna for Eomer. Lhuna always votes for me. It seems quite unfair, especially as I had not posted at that point. Rune for Eomer. The succeeding post to Lhuna's vote. May be telling. Glirdan for Kath. For no reason. Throwing his vote away, perhaps to seem random and individual. Nilp for Nilp. He's not a wolf because he knows that the village will leap on a Nilp-bandwagon, because it's so easy for the village to do that. TGWBS for Eomer. In character. Somewhat dangerous to do this, though, because of the building momentum. Durelin for Nilp. A nice, easy vote. Diamond for Eomer. Petty, childish and envious. Anguirel for Nilp. Explicitly wants to save me. This is fair as I will probably be more useful than The Suicidal One. Lalaith for Formendacil. She might suspect him because of his lazy attitude to the first Day. Caranlondien for Jenny. Apparently because she would make a good wolf. Firefoot for Nilp. Exasperated vote. SPM for Holby. Probably because of these classic recap posts Holby is fond of. Holby for Nilp. Usual reasons. So what do I think of the votes so far? The Eomer-bandwagon is bitter, twisted, and very possibly contains a couple of dark, furry secrets. Out of the Eomer-voters, I am inclined to say that Diamond is most likely to be innocent, because she was always going to vote for me anyway (due to the last game). The Nilp-bandwagon is more justified. After all, he did vote for himself. Still an easy place to hide, though. Of the others, Glirdan's for Kath and Caran's for Jenny seem the most suspicious to me. Glirdan or Caran, Glirdan and Caran. Hmm... __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond Last edited by Eomer of the Rohirrim; 06-21-2006 at 01:23 PM. Reason: Typed Kath instead of Caran on bottom line.

06-21-2006, 12:46 PM	#3
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	Hmm...All is going according to my ninja plans? Wouldn't it be lovely if we lynched his shadow clone... Actually I would've preferred to lynch Mr. Gander. I do enjoy my fowl. Roasted, preferably.

06-21-2006, 01:01 PM	#9
Findëasëa Haunting Spirit Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 63	I see Lalaith’s point now. Since the lovers are working for their own benefit foremost, they may be less subtle when it comes to voting in order to protect their lover’s life and their own. It still seems to me that both of their second loyalties lay with the wolves, however, so this may still cloud the clarity of the voting record. I didn’t find much to go on that would warrant a strong vote for anyone, most of the discussion today was, although quite amusing, altogether inconclusive. I find Glirdan’s actions a bit suspicious, but I am not sure that a wolf would risk being so bold. He stayed in character in his posts and made a nonsense vote. I would imagine that a werewolf might be a bit more wary of not saying anything of value. I do not want to rule him out as suspect, but I don’t want to vote for him today.

06-21-2006, 01:35 PM	#12
Formendacil Dead Serious Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Perched on Thangorodrim's towers. Posts: 3,328	Okay, I'd really like to say that the reason I've been so quiet today has been Day 1 antipathy... but someone (mutters about the evil that is plumber) cut our phone line, and I'm writing this from the public library... If things go poorly, I may be a virtual Alcarillo for the next couple (or more) days. If they go well, I'll be back to normal for Day 2- including a bit more verbose. Bit of a pity since this Day 1 actually looks somewhat fun... useless for actually lynching a wolf at this time, of course (unless by blind luck or stupidity on the lupine part, as I've said many a time)- but fun all the same. The whole pirates/ninja debate is most amusing, and it's good to see Nilp on form again. The good Catholic in me hates to see a noble tradition die. Now, this day being nearer its end than its beginning, and being the good voting citizen that I am, now is a good time to vote. ++ Lalaith Because she voted for me. Yes, it's incriminating. It's also Day 1. 'tis the best evidence I've got... she's the only person I know who's voting for a known innocent. __________________ I prefer history, true or feigned.

06-21-2006, 01:47 PM	#13
JennyHallu The Pearl, The Lily Maid Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In my luxury Barrow, snuggled up in a pile of satin pillows, eating fresh fruit. Posts: 1,628	Terribly suspicious, Form, that you both praise Nilp and do nothing to help him. Now today's kill shall be either Eomer or Nilp with no way out. Village! You're making a terrible mistake! Eomer's being lynched out of spite, and Nilp in the biggest example of misapplied logic I've seen today! (And I work for the Army...so that's saying something) How often does Nilp self-vote? Every time! How often is he a wolf? No more than anyone else! sigh I'm going to go put a claim in on the Captain's cabin. Weslamond, guard the door, will you? __________________ <=== Lookee, lookee, lots of IM handles!

06-21-2006, 01:17 PM	#16
JennyHallu The Pearl, The Lily Maid Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In my luxury Barrow, snuggled up in a pile of satin pillows, eating fresh fruit. Posts: 1,628	DON'T VOTE NILP, guys. Not without at least a smidgeon of evidence against him! I think Eomer likely innocent as well. Therefore, I'm following Saucie's lead, especially since I felt her analysis misconstrued some of what was said today. ++Holby If all those who have yet to vote join us, we can save both Nilp and Eomer! __________________ <=== Lookee, lookee, lots of IM handles!