Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Kath

Jenny's post 'I TOLD YOU SO' makes me a little suspicious of her. If she was so certain there are only two options. She is either the Seer or a wolf. If she was the Seer I don't believe she would make that so obvious, so I'm leaning towards her guilt.

You're missing three major possibilities. I could be the Hunter (read the rules: the Hunter knew Nilp's identity). I could be the innocent Lover, and know the identities of the wolves. Or you could realize the truth: I'm innocent, bright, and I'm not the only one who thought the innocence of the two we've lost fairly obvious. I just tried to do something about it, and turn voting towards someone for whom there was actually a case, however shaky, and I got really frustrated when that attempt was completely ignored. Plus, I'm snotty, and I liked being vindicated.

Trying to think who seems most suspicious to me, and trying to decide if Form is really suspicious, or if it's just my frustration from yesterday making me think so.

1. Morm-->Glirdan (Glirdan-1)
2. Lhuna-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-1)
3. Rune-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
4. Glirdan-->Kath (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1)
5. Nilp-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
6. TGWBS-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
7. Durelin-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
8. Diamond-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
9. Anguirel-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3)
10. Lalaith-->Form (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1)
11. Caranlondien-->Jenny (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1, Jenny-1)
12. Firefoot-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
13. SpM-->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
14. Holby-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
15. JennyHallu-->Holbytlass (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2)
16. Formendacil-->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-1)
17. Findeasea-->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2)
18. Gurthang-->Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
19. Eomer-->Glirdan (Glirdan-2, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
20. Taliesin-->Eomer (Glirdan-2, Eomer-5, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)

No vote: Kath
(copied shamelessly)

Now, to work:

I highly doubt that there would be wolf-on-wolf votes yesterday, not with the potential for mistrust between the wolves. But I do think the wolves were not all in the Eomer-Nilp bandwagon. At least one, I think, voted off, and probably later, after that bandwagon was established. That's what I'd do, anyway. I also think one (a different one) voted early, and of the middle two, at least one voted bandwagon, if not both.

I think there were wolves in both bandwagons, but I may be wrong there.

So: I'm left with four groups of likely wolves, which may overlap:

Early voters: I'm including all those who voted before the bandwagons formed.
Morm
Lhuna
Rune
Glirdan
Durelin
I'm not including Diamond's vote in this category; the Eomer Bandwagon was already fully formed.

Of these there are a few that stand out:
Rune & Durelin: Second votes worry me. To my mind, that's the easiest place for a wolf to hide a vote. The wolf can then rest assured that he has neither started a bandwagon, nor doomed an innocent.


Eomer voters:
TGWBS
Diamond
Taliesin

Standouts: These are more difficult to tell.
Daga'y's vote really was what turned Eomer into a bandwagon.

DiamondI'm more inclined to trust: it seems her vote placement would be risky for a wolf.

Taliesin, on the other hand, I think I worry about most. A late vote (the latest actually) that brought Eomer up to a tie, after Kath had said she would not vote. Therefore a totally safe vote. If Taliesin is wolvish, I would say that he was not the wolf who brought up killing Eomer. His vote would be in a great spot if Eomer were still here gaining suspicion today.

Nilp voters:
Anguirel
Firefoot
Holby

Anguirel: Really it was Anguirel's vote that pushed this into a one-on-one race. However, I'm inclined to think him innocent because of his reasoning: to prevent voting from being a single, concentrated Eomer-lynch. Wasn't a great vote, but not in and of itself suspicious.

Firefoot & Holby are where I think we are most likely to see our wolf (wow, what an original thought!). However, I haven't the slightest idea which it might be, and, if my theory on wolf placement is wrong...maybe neither.

Off voters:
Lalaith
SPaM
Me: Not going to analyse myself. Best left to others.
Form
Fin
Gurthang

Honestly, my analysis is bound to be far less clear on these. Form still makes me nervous. SPaM and Lalaith I am inclined to trust (especially since Lalaith's vote was rather early)

Kath: has got to be innocent. An overly busy wolf would still have some kind of plan for her vote, and I think wouldn't have set herself apart like that.

Therefore: I think the wolves can be found in this (rather large) list.

Rune
Durelin
TGWBS
Taliesin
Firefoot
Holby
Formendacil
Fin
Gurthang

At least I've halved the field...