Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Cailín · 06-24-2006, 03:03 PM

The wolves killed JennyHallu (i.e. the Dread Pirate Roberta) who was the Hunter, and she took no good Formendacil with her, who was an Ordinary Passenger.

Day 3 has now started. Narration will be up later. *hic*

the guy who be short · 06-24-2006, 03:09 PM

How positively exciting!

If I were more conscious, I'd come up with a theory and astound you all with my brilliance.

Alack.

Gurthang · 06-24-2006, 03:17 PM

TGWBS, please, by all means do return more conscious. I am growing weary, and wary, of your lack of input.

Thankfully, it is the weekend. I should be able to look more into morm, Guy, and maybe Holbytlass.

the guy who be short · 06-24-2006, 03:29 PM

Glirdy - you earlier asked what I meant by "glirdan = not sense." A post you had made earlier concerning Nilp voters didn't seem logical to me. As I expect weirdness from you, I presumed, and still presume, you to be innocent.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gurthang

TGWBS, please, by all means do return more conscious. I am growing weary, and wary, of your lack of input.

Never fear, Lack-of-Sleep-man is here! By which I mean, I'll be awake in about 14 hours, probably.

Lalaith · 06-24-2006, 03:37 PM

So Jenny was the Hunter – I suspected as much. It was also fairly likely that her hunt would come off the list she posted yesterday…and that Form was her most likely victim. So, of course, as Form was not a wolf, the wolves knew they were probably safe to kill her.
I cannot blame Jenny for suspecting Form, I did so myself. (Particularly as I had no time to formulate any new suspicions before voting.) However, after his total non-appearance yesterday, I did wonder if his detachment was genuine rather than affected, in which case he was probably innocent.

I’m in the middle of writing a long post about my thoughts on everyone, which depending on time I will post either tonight or when I wake up tomorrow.

Oh and while I don’t usually defend myself over-much against accusations as in my experience it’s counter-productive, I can’t resist a little exposition on the subject of Findeasea’s suspicions of me. Because, for philosophers, it is such a classic case of rationalism versus empiricism. Fin is clearly a rationalist. She has a preconceived idea of what a wolf is like, finds I fit that idea so ergo – I’m a wolf.
Now, rationalism has a fine tradition but I have always found its epistemological rival, empiricism, to be a more flexible and useful reasoning tool. That is I like to observe, and apply my knowledge and experience to those observations, drawing conclusions post priori rather than a priori. Wolves come in very different shapes, sizes and disguises, and we need flexibility in our thinking to catch them.

Rune Son of Bjarne · 06-24-2006, 03:39 PM

Jenny as the Hunter really is not that big of a suprise after yesterday, that she chose Formendacil on the otherhand was a bit of a suprise to me. I know she voted for him, but I would have thought the hunter would choose another than the one they voted for. Well another thing is, it really does not help me. (might be usefull for you, but not for me) The few posts where I realy noticed Formendacil, he seemed to make sence. Because of this he was low on my suspect list.

I will start by commenting on something said after I left yesterday.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I like how you brought up the fact that Rune has posted little. That really worries me because Rune is normally a really vocal player and has great theories. I'm not getting that this time.

This is a thing I find very interesting, as it does not resemble the look I have on my own skills at all. I have always thought I was semi-vocal at best, spiced with some theories of mixed quality. . .
I don’t know why Glirdan’s memory is different than mine. It could be because my last game was quite good or it could just be because he missed me so much that all his memories of me have changed to the better. . .

This might not be a big thing as everybody has a different view on each other and one self. I am actually quite flatterd by the whole thing.

For now I don’t have a prime suspect, but as I will have to cast my vote early. I shall try to be as productive as possible while I am here . .

Firefoot · 06-24-2006, 03:51 PM

Yesterday's voting:

Ang – 1 (Morm 1)
Lalaith – 2 (Findeasea 2, Firefoot 15)
Firefoot – 2 (Lhuna 3, Caran 10)
Formen – 2 (Lalaith 4, Jenny 11)
Holby – 3 (Rune 5, SpM 6, Durelin 13)
Jenny - 1 (Kath 7)
Lhuna – 4 (Glirdan 8, Ang 9, Taliesin 12, Holby 14)
Morm – 1 (Gurthang 16)

Did not vote: Form, TGWBS, Diamond

With four wolves and a lover still here, we now have a 5/16 shot at catching a wolf (since the wolf dies with the lover). That's pretty good odds... which is good and bad, I suppose - good because we have a reasonable chance of catching a wolf, bad because it means we haven't caught any yet...

I don't know how much I'm going to be around toDay (long story - issues...).

Findëasëa · 06-24-2006, 04:28 PM

Lalaith- I agree that flexibility is essential toward the discovery of a wolf. You do have a fair point, my suspicions of you originally did have a root in preconceived ideas of how a wolf may act, as you first seemed suspicious to me on day one, and there was very little to go on besides such notions. However, I feel that my vote on day two was not, as you seem inclined to believe, based on following a rigid formula. In the specific situation that presented itself yesterDay, it makes sense that a wolf should follow the behavior pattern that you did, there was no reason for a wolf to risk themselves, you voted safe and stayed out of the spotlight. As you might have noted from my analysis, I spent a good deal of time yesterday reviewing the actions of as many players as possible and attempting to find evidence of wolfish behavior. I may be missing the finer point that you were trying to make, but it seems like you are trying to dismiss my suspicions as flawed and thoughtless. Please know that I would not have voted for you if you did not seem most suspicious to me.

Lalaith · 06-24-2006, 04:35 PM

Not at all thoughtless, Findëasëa. As I said, rationalism is an honourable epistomological tradition, and you are free to vote for me on whatever grounds you like. I'm not a wolf, of course, but then, I expect most of us are getting it wrong in these early days. I was totally wrong about Form.
Indeed, most of us clearly are getting it wrong, as we haven't gpt a wolf yet...

Glirdan · 06-24-2006, 03:11 PM

Major OCC - Hey! She stole my line AND my rum!!

Oh great! Another death that was actually more random than not....or is it? Isn't it true that Jenny stated yesterDay that she was the Hunter...and the Seer...and an Ordo....and a Wolf....and the Lover....ah you get the point. Anyway, is it possible the Wolves actually believed she was the Seer and decided to go after her on that assumption? Hmmm....I wonder...

Now I shall depart. Without having rum around, I'm starting to feel queasy...I'm going to go lay down...

RL (again) - I'm suddenly not feeling well and I need to go relax. I should be back later on.

Findëasëa · 06-24-2006, 03:14 PM

Ack, we are down another two valuable passengers, one of whom was our hunter. I was really surprised to see that Lhuna was lynched yesterday. She was acting strangely, sure, but as some of us discovered recently, an absence of strange behavior would indicate guilt much more strongly. I am going to go back and review the actions that resulted in Lhuna’s death for clues.

06-24-2006, 03:03 PM	#1
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	Start of Day 3 The wolves killed JennyHallu (i.e. the Dread Pirate Roberta) who was the Hunter, and she took no good Formendacil with her, who was an Ordinary Passenger. Day 3 has now started. Narration will be up later. hic

06-24-2006, 03:17 PM	#3
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	TGWBS, please, by all means do return more conscious. I am growing weary, and wary, of your lack of input. Thankfully, it is the weekend. I should be able to look more into morm, Guy, and maybe Holbytlass. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

06-24-2006, 03:37 PM	#5
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	So Jenny was the Hunter – I suspected as much. It was also fairly likely that her hunt would come off the list she posted yesterday…and that Form was her most likely victim. So, of course, as Form was not a wolf, the wolves knew they were probably safe to kill her. I cannot blame Jenny for suspecting Form, I did so myself. (Particularly as I had no time to formulate any new suspicions before voting.) However, after his total non-appearance yesterday, I did wonder if his detachment was genuine rather than affected, in which case he was probably innocent. I’m in the middle of writing a long post about my thoughts on everyone, which depending on time I will post either tonight or when I wake up tomorrow. Oh and while I don’t usually defend myself over-much against accusations as in my experience it’s counter-productive, I can’t resist a little exposition on the subject of Findeasea’s suspicions of me. Because, for philosophers, it is such a classic case of rationalism versus empiricism. Fin is clearly a rationalist. She has a preconceived idea of what a wolf is like, finds I fit that idea so ergo – I’m a wolf. Now, rationalism has a fine tradition but I have always found its epistemological rival, empiricism, to be a more flexible and useful reasoning tool. That is I like to observe, and apply my knowledge and experience to those observations, drawing conclusions post priori rather than a priori. Wolves come in very different shapes, sizes and disguises, and we need flexibility in our thinking to catch them. __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling Last edited by Lalaith; 06-24-2006 at 03:39 PM. Reason: taking out a load of weird font and verdana stuff in brackets that appeared in my post for some reason...

06-24-2006, 04:35 PM	#9
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	Not at all thoughtless, Findëasëa. As I said, rationalism is an honourable epistomological tradition, and you are free to vote for me on whatever grounds you like. I'm not a wolf, of course, but then, I expect most of us are getting it wrong in these early days. I was totally wrong about Form. Indeed, most of us clearly are getting it wrong, as we haven't gpt a wolf yet... __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling

06-24-2006, 03:11 PM	#10
Glirdan Energetic Essence Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Where Lark Nor Eagle Ever Flew Posts: 3,285	Major OCC - Hey! She stole my line AND my rum!! Oh great! Another death that was actually more random than not....or is it? Isn't it true that Jenny stated yesterDay that she was the Hunter...and the Seer...and an Ordo....and a Wolf....and the Lover....ah you get the point. Anyway, is it possible the Wolves actually believed she was the Seer and decided to go after her on that assumption? Hmmm....I wonder... Now I shall depart. Without having rum around, I'm starting to feel queasy...I'm going to go lay down... RL (again) - I'm suddenly not feeling well and I need to go relax. I should be back later on. __________________ *I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face!* Fenris Wolf

06-24-2006, 03:09 PM	#2
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	How positively exciting! If I were more conscious, I'd come up with a theory and astound you all with my brilliance. Alack.

06-24-2006, 03:51 PM	#7
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	Yesterday's voting: Ang – 1 (Morm 1) Lalaith – 2 (Findeasea 2, Firefoot 15) Firefoot – 2 (Lhuna 3, Caran 10) Formen – 2 (Lalaith 4, Jenny 11) Holby – 3 (Rune 5, SpM 6, Durelin 13) Jenny - 1 (Kath 7) Lhuna – 4 (Glirdan 8, Ang 9, Taliesin 12, Holby 14) Morm – 1 (Gurthang 16) Did not vote: Form, TGWBS, Diamond With four wolves and a lover still here, we now have a 5/16 shot at catching a wolf (since the wolf dies with the lover). That's pretty good odds... which is good and bad, I suppose - good because we have a reasonable chance of catching a wolf, bad because it means we haven't caught any yet... I don't know how much I'm going to be around toDay (long story - issues...).

06-24-2006, 04:28 PM	#8
Findëasëa Haunting Spirit Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 63	Lalaith- I agree that flexibility is essential toward the discovery of a wolf. You do have a fair point, my suspicions of you originally did have a root in preconceived ideas of how a wolf may act, as you first seemed suspicious to me on day one, and there was very little to go on besides such notions. However, I feel that my vote on day two was not, as you seem inclined to believe, based on following a rigid formula. In the specific situation that presented itself yesterDay, it makes sense that a wolf should follow the behavior pattern that you did, there was no reason for a wolf to risk themselves, you voted safe and stayed out of the spotlight. As you might have noted from my analysis, I spent a good deal of time yesterday reviewing the actions of as many players as possible and attempting to find evidence of wolfish behavior. I may be missing the finer point that you were trying to make, but it seems like you are trying to dismiss my suspicions as flawed and thoughtless. Please know that I would not have voted for you if you did not seem most suspicious to me.

06-24-2006, 03:14 PM	#11
Findëasëa Haunting Spirit Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 63	Ack, we are down another two valuable passengers, one of whom was our hunter. I was really surprised to see that Lhuna was lynched yesterday. She was acting strangely, sure, but as some of us discovered recently, an absence of strange behavior would indicate guilt much more strongly. I am going to go back and review the actions that resulted in Lhuna’s death for clues.