Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Firefoot]

Yesterday's voting:

Ang – 1 (Morm 1)
Lalaith – 2 (Findeasea 2, Firefoot 15)
Firefoot – 2 (Lhuna 3, Caran 10)
Formen – 2 (Lalaith 4, Jenny 11)
Holby – 3 (Rune 5, SpM 6, Durelin 13)
Jenny - 1 (Kath 7)
Lhuna – 4 (Glirdan 8, Ang 9, Taliesin 12, Holby 14)
Morm – 1 (Gurthang 16)

Did not vote: Form, TGWBS, Diamond

With four wolves and a lover still here, we now have a 5/16 shot at catching a wolf (since the wolf dies with the lover). That's pretty good odds... which is good and bad, I suppose - good because we have a reasonable chance of catching a wolf, bad because it means we haven't caught any yet...

I don't know how much I'm going to be around toDay (long story - issues...).

[Findëasëa]

Lalaith- I agree that flexibility is essential toward the discovery of a wolf. You do have a fair point, my suspicions of you originally did have a root in preconceived ideas of how a wolf may act, as you first seemed suspicious to me on day one, and there was very little to go on besides such notions. However, I feel that my vote on day two was not, as you seem inclined to believe, based on following a rigid formula. In the specific situation that presented itself yesterDay, it makes sense that a wolf should follow the behavior pattern that you did, there was no reason for a wolf to risk themselves, you voted safe and stayed out of the spotlight. As you might have noted from my analysis, I spent a good deal of time yesterday reviewing the actions of as many players as possible and attempting to find evidence of wolfish behavior. I may be missing the finer point that you were trying to make, but it seems like you are trying to dismiss my suspicions as flawed and thoughtless. Please know that I would not have voted for you if you did not seem most suspicious to me.

[Lalaith]

Not at all thoughtless, Findëasëa. As I said, rationalism is an honourable epistomological tradition, and you are free to vote for me on whatever grounds you like. I'm not a wolf, of course, but then, I expect most of us are getting it wrong in these early days. I was totally wrong about Form.
Indeed, most of us clearly are getting it wrong, as we haven't gpt a wolf yet...

[Lalaith]

Oh, and happy birthday, by the way.


(Oh dear, I'm always doing this in WW. I was mean to Jenny on her 21st. Of course, she *was* a wolf...)

[Diamond18]

Alas.... I'm crushed. I guess Jenny's death makes me the Dread Pirate Roberta now. (That's how it works in The Princess Bride. Though, technically, she should have retired to enjoy her spoils instead of been rudely mauled to death.)

Only, I'm not up the task. I've been debating a little here whether I ought to refrain from voting toDay and let some ModFire take care of me. Because I can tell you pretty surely that my participation isn't going to get any better than it has been. I knew before signing up for this game that it wasn't the best idea, due to RL timing, but the lure of pirates and lovers and it being Cailín's game made me ignore my smarter self.

Thing is, pride is still making me ignore my smarter self. I don't like the idea of having a withdrawal or a ModFire death on my record, so to speak. But then, I really don't want to be lynched, because I'm damn proud of my "never been lynched" record -- and hanging about not participating and throwing up votes just to stay in the game is a good way to garner an "ire lynching." So what to do.... what to do.... Um, would you wolves believe me if I said I'm the Seer and kill me? No? Well, it was worth a shot.

I think I am going to vote. Just because I actually have a suspect, oddly enough. You see, all I've really done is read over all the posts once -- and I can never do anything smart if that's all I've done. I have to at least re-read the whole game once or twice, and preferably analyze individual players, and most preferably have some kind of whack theory to view things through a la tinted glasses. But I've either not had the time, or when I have had the time, I've been much too preoccupied and neither my head or my heart have been in it. So this pretty much means that I don't have any opinions about anyone (seeing as I hardly remember who made what posts, anyway.) But the one exception is Saucepan Man. His posts have made me feel uneasy, and the fact that most everyone else is putting him on their "likely innocent" lists makes me even more uneasy.

+ + The Saucepan Man

And no, you're not going to get any solid reasoning, because it's pretty much a gut thing. I'm comfortable making this vote because, even if I am wrong, the likelihood of a bandwaggon forming off my vote is pretty slim. My impression reading through was that the majority trusts him. For what it's worth, I don't, and I don't think anyone should, but you apparently do, so oh well.

Oh, and I'm not a wolf. I think it's fairly obvious and this is why -- wolves don't make petty kills at Night. Unless they're very, very stupid. And while I have been too preoccupied this week to play the game the way I ought, I'm not that stupid. Neither is Lhuna, which was why lynching her was, yes, stupid. You're not going to find wolves amongst people who petty/grudge voted against Eomer, because those are not the same people who as wolves would have killed him at night. Now, people who voted for him for other reasons, I really can't say, though I find it doubtful.

So, I haven't really decided what to do but I don't want to definitely exit myself from the game just yet. Hence the vote. This will be my last contribution for the Day. Next week will be rather busy for me (I have this silly idea to cram multiple trips to Summerfest in between my two jobs, haha haha haha) so I may just ask Cailín to off me anyway. I guess the only thing stopping me is a dislike for the idea. I'm kind of hoping that by sticking around I'll at least boost the Innocent numbers for you, even if my personal contribution isn't good for much else.

Of course, if everyone just screams at me to get my useless rump gone, I suppose I could do that as well. *shrug*

[Diamond18]

PS -- I second Lal's birthday wishes to Fin. We really should have a birthday thread, just like the deathday thread.... Oh well, a thought for another time when I don't have people nagging me to get off the computer.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

TGWBS

Has a strange Day 1 vote, but most of us did. Then he has his for me really weird post about sense and not sense are both good. Now it seems that he is not conscious! I don’t know why I did not notice that he had hardly posted at all. Anyways I normally don’t like when people post that little, unless there is something in there posts that makes me “trust” them. That was the case with Lhuna and therefore she didn’t even make my list of people to watch. The fact that I really like playing with Lhuna might have had some influence as well. (Lhuna is often the person who I understands the best) TGWBS on the other hand does nothing to make me trust him, he comes with some very confusing statements and that is it. I really dislikes this because that makes him really hard to get a read on and I don’t like having people like that in the end of a game. (this is why I normally vote for Wayne early on) There is a chance that he may just be an ordo acting weird for some reason I don’t know, but I also see it as definite possibility that he is a very bold wolf. Should he turn out an ordo it is a loss that I for one can live. Right now I don’t see any potential in having him around. I am not very demanding and I am not saying that he should come up with a brilliant post for me to not vote for him. I am just asking for him to post a bit more substantial so that their may be something to judge him by.
If nothing changes while I am sleeping, he is very likely to get my vote.

Glirdan

He is very difficult for me to classify, he has not done anything that is overly suspicious, but I find that he has some weird comments once in a while. Then he has his analyses. Although SPM did not find them overly useful, I was kind of pleased with them, the ones that focused on the individuals that is. They were not the greatest in the world, but it was better than anything me and a lot of others had come up with at that point. Then he has some kind of theory about how much people post! Although I my self get suspicious in the extreme cases, I did not see how that could be really useful, as I see it it could be interpreted in a 1000 different ways and really did not help one bit. This is a thing that makes me slightly suspicious of him. It could be a wolves way of contributing with something that points in every direction and therefore is likely not to lead anywhere. It would also work great if the wolf would be lynched, there would be nothing to go by. (on that single post that is). So all in all Glirdan seems a bit suspicious, but for now he is not troubling me to much.

Mormegil and Anguriel

As I said earlier I believe that there is a good chance that one of them might be a wolf, but I still don’t know who. I will wait and see what happens; there is still a couple of things I need to get cleared before I can make a judgement. The thing is that Mormegils is so sure in his accusations (which if true is brilliant spotted, I might add) that it makes me think that it is either an ordo who has noticed something who is very wrong in the behaviour of another player, but it could also be a wolf who has been studying each post for the slightest contradiction and then jumps one it when found. If nothing new happens I will probably have to go back and look at some of the old games for some clues.

Holbytlass

I still think that she has a lot more potential than she is showing and therefore I am suspicious. However I don’t think that she will get my vote today.

Firefoot

Pretty much removed her self from my list of suspects yesterday, as I found her contribution extremely useful and I could follow her reasoning most of the time.

Well those I haven’t mentioned I think innocent for now. Some because they make sence other because I they have done nothing to make me suspicious. (that does not mean that I always understand exactly why they are doing as they are)


Man this took a long time; I should have been to bed ages ago. I will return tomorrow with a vote and then be gone for rest of the day.

Cross posted with Di and I don't know what to think of her post.

[Caranlondien]

Well, I'm not surprised that Jenny was the Hunter; it seemed pretty obvious to me from her certainty that Nilp was innocent. Things are looking sort of depressing for us right now...

Firefoot's post after I voted for her yesterDay has comforted me somewhat about her. She responded but didn't overreact.

I haven't had time to go back over all of yesterDay's posts yet, so forgive me if this is explained elsewhere, but tgwbs - why didn't you vote? Of course, I'm tempted to excuse him just for that, because I don't see a wolf being so bold as to skip out on voting... but I have to agree with Rune that tgwbs is unreadable. And maybe he would be that bold. In any case, he's being unusually quiet, and it's making me nervous.