Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies one and all for my quietitude, but I am beset by RL issues which continue to prevent me being present as much as I would like. Although, perhaps that is a good thing as my instincts do seem to have been rather off so far.

As regards Holby, well I have a pretty good (or, more accurately, bad) track record of identifying Seers as Wolves. Apologies for my part in forcing her revelation, unnecessary though it was. I doubt that anyone, innocents and Wolves alike suspected that she was the Seer.

Diamond's analysis of me toDay is a classic example of deciding that someone is a Wolf and then searching out the reasoning from their posts to justify that feeling. Some of her points look a little off to me. YesterDay, I thought her a definate Wolf, based on the points I had made earlier in the Day. ToDay, I am not so sure. Her venedetta against me looks a little too bold for a Wolf and comes across, rather, as genuine, albeit misguided. Then again, after yesterDay's events, the Wolves have good reason to be bold and I did think myself a likely lynch candidate toDay, so it would not surprise me if there were a Wolf or two pushing for my death.

Rune's first post of toDay has me a little concerned, as it smacks of Wolfishness without saying very much.

Firefoot is still a suspect, but that may just be because I had convinced myself that either she of Holby was a Wolf. She has come across as sensible and helpful so far toDay.

Lalaith is a tricksy one. Nothing concrete to go on, but I find myself trusting her less and less.

Sorry, not very helpful I know, but I have little time. I shall try to come back later toDay with something more useful but, given RL issues, it may be difficult. I will certainly be back before the end of the Day but I fear that I will have little time for constructive analysis.

[Findëasëa]

Saucepan Man- I do feel like he has been playing a little differently in this village then the others I have been in with him, but not in a strong way at all. It could easily be my perspective, as in the last village he was under a lot of suspicion which started on the first day and so was in a completely different situation. He has not said anything in particular to make me suspicious, his thoughts seem logical to me. Diamond made some interesting points about him in her analysis, so I will try to look back at his posts more closely later.

Diamond18- Hmm I am not sure about her. A lot of her points in the SPM analysis seem to be stretches and a bit strange. I think she does make some valid points about the Jenny situation, but I don’t think that her placing SPM as guilty because of these makes particular sense,

“Actually, that seems very wolfish to me. By broadcasting the possibility, he brought it to the attention of everyone. On purpose. A wolf would do this so that he can later say "Oops, I guess I gave it away to the wolves and that's why they killed her."(Diamond 285)”

I don’t understand her logic here, what would a wolf have to gain from being seen as the reason a gifted had died? She seems to be a misguided innocent, as someone mentioned earlier, but she could also be using this as a cover for something more malicious.

[Findëasëa]

I will be back later today with more, as I still need to look at Kath, Firefoot, Rune, Gurthang and Anguirel. Of everyone in the village at this point, the three that look most suspicious to me are Lalaith, Rune and Gurthang, but I will need to take a closer look at their posts before saying anything definite, so its probably better if I save them for after I get some sleep.
(Sorry for the double post...)

[Lalaith]

Ok, in an attempt to comply with the wish of a dying man, I’ve looked at the voting records of Morm's suspect list. I think it’s quite interesting.

Firefoot: No consistency in voting time. This strikes me as quite innocent, actually.
Day One Voted Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
Day Two (second last to vote, just before Gurthang) Voted Lalaith (Ang 1, Lal 2, Firefoot 2, Form 2, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 3
Day Three Voted Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1)

Gurthang – always votes just a couple of minutes before deadline. This makes me uneasy, particularly as his voting record is not great: two safe throwaways and then a (for all he knew) decisive move for Holby, rather than go for Morm, his lone vote from the day before…
Day One(second-last to vote, 2 mins before deadline): Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
Day Two (last to vote) Mormegil: (Ang 1, Lal 2, Firefoot 2, Form 2, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 3, Mormegil 1)
Day Three (second last to vote) Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 2, Glirdan 1, Rune 2, Holby 3, morm 3, kath 1)

Rune – always among the early voters. RL constraints, maybe, or just likes to play safe?
Day One: Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
Day Two: Holby (Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 1)
Day Three: tgwbs (SpM 1, tgwbs 1)

TGWBS – Seemingly casual middle-period voter….but puts someone in lead each time.
Day One: Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
Day Two: did not vote
Day Three: Morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 2)