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#1 | |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Quote:
![]() Good observation, Lalaith. I'm looking at Gurthang, too, because of his late vote for Rune (by then a wolf knew it would be too late). He could have brought Sauce and Rune into a tie, but Rune still would've been lynched. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean anything. |
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#2 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel
Posts: 339
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Actually, Lalaith, I was thinking the same thing. I do still think Durelin is to be trusted, by Glirdan is looking a bit more conspicuous.
Now the other two Fin was looking at yesterDay were Lalaith and Gurthang. While it's quite possible that she was killed because she would just generally have been the most helpful of we three innocents, it might also have been because she was on target there. I still have to go over Rune's posts ![]() |
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#3 | |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel
Posts: 339
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Rune
Day One
He posts nonsense pretty much all Day, until he votes for Eomer, jumping onto Lhuna's vote with a silly grudge-reason. Day Two #113: Eomer is dead, oh no! He apparently doesn't know what to think about it ![]() ![]() #119: Thinks Eomer was killed to create confusion. Puzzled by all the votes for Nilp. #133: Thinks Jenny is innocent. #161: Thinks either Anguirel or morm is a wolf. Can't read Glirdan at all. Thinks Lhuna is innocent. Quote:
#179: Continues to defend Jenny. #189: Eliminates Firefoot from the candidates for his vote due to a recent helpful post, leaving Glirdan and Holby in the running. Votes Holby. Day Three #227: Defends himself against Glirdan's accusations of being unusually quiet. #234: Highly suspicious of tgwbs. Mildly suspicious of Glirdan. Still thinks either morm or Anguirel is a wolf. Still thinks Holby is somewhat suspicious. Removes Firefoot entirely from his suspect list. #239: Votes tgwbs. Day Four #302: Nothing important. #310: Responds to Diamond's accusal of SpM, defending him, though being careful to point out he's willing to vote SpM if he gets some convincing arguments. #326: Turns Gurthang's accusation right back on Gurthang. Also continues to suspect Anguirel, since morm turned out innocent, but seems to be backing off. #329: Continues to defend himself against Gurthang. #355: Votes SpM to try to save himself. ------------------------------------------ Rune gives us very little to go on. I can't help but wonder if he was an intentional sacrifice. He keeps Glirdan on mild suspicion, but always has a higher-up suspect. A safe place to keep one of your fellow wolves. The move away from Firefoot is also suspicious, as is his defense of SpM. EDIT: added the title "Rune" so that people know who the heck I'm talking about... Last edited by Caranlondien; 06-28-2006 at 05:32 PM. |
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#4 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Ahoy there, me hearties!
![]() I am feeling most optimistic, you know, after the death of Rune. It's obviously not good that we lost Fin, but that was not unexpected. Not that it means much to the rest of you, but I expected the Wolves to leave Taliesin around, what with his supicions of me 'n all, so I was fully expecting the absence of either Fin or Caran this morning. Indeed, I must raise a metaphorical arched eyebrow at Glirdan's (feigned?) surprise over this turn of events. It was always going to be one of three people that we lost last Night. "But why the optimism, Rear-Admiral?" I hear you cry. Well, two reasons in particular. First, the innocents are the majority in a three-way fight. Effectively, there are seven innocents against two teams of two, with all to play for. At least one, and possibly both, of the known non-Wolves are on the innocents' side. And the rest of us may not know who each other are, but numbers remain on our side for now and, if we keep our wits about us, we may even be able to pull together in a fashion. Secondly, the death of a Wolf always provides top quality evidence. However diligently that Wolf, and his fiendish comrades, may have tried to hide their tracks, there will always be clues. We now have a wealth of evidence to sift through. I suggest that we set to it. In particular, we should be looking at: - The cumulative voting patterns over the four Days so far. - In particular, the way the votes went yesterDay, given the (happily fruitful) prospect of Rune's lynching throughout much of the Day. - The manner in which suspicion against Rune gathered yesterDay. - What Rune has said about his fellow passengers over the four Days. - What Rune's fellow passengers said about him over the four Days. - Possible other connections between prospective Wolves and prospective Lovers. - The possible effect of the Lovers' presence on Wolvish behaviour, both retrospectively and prospectively. We should also, of course, continue carefully to consider what each of us says as the Day progresses. Since I could be relatively reassured that I would survive the Night, I took the opportunity to do a fair bit of analysis along the above lines overNight. I'll try to post as much of it as I can toDay*, since I anticipate that I will not be around too much on the morrow*. I have no definite conclusions at this stage, and I am really aiming just to post the evidence, pose a few questions on the basis of it and perhaps put forward a few tentative theories. I am really rather confident that we will catch another Wolf toDay, you know. Wouldn't it be interesting if we were to catch one of the two remaining Loveless Wolves, setting up the delicious prospect of two remaining Wolves who each know that the other cannot be trusted? Oh well, best get on. Back soon. Toodle pip! Edit: * For clarity, I mean that I will try to post as much of the analysis RL tonight as I will not be around much RL tomorrow.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! Last edited by The Saucepan Man; 06-28-2006 at 04:39 PM. |
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#5 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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OK, here's the first part of my overNight workings. Voting record from Day 1, considered in light of what we know now. Known innocents are in italics (with surviving known non-Wolves also underlined). Wolf is in bold.
1. Morm ->Glirdan (Glirdan-1) 2. Lhuna ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-1) 3. Rune ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2) 4. Glirdan ->Kath (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1) 5. Nilp ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1, Nilp-1) 6. TGWBS ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1) 7. Durelin ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-2) 8. Diamond ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-2) 9. Anguirel ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3) 10. Lalaith ->Form (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1) 11. Caranlondien ->Jenny (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1, Jenny-1) 12. Firefoot ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1) 13. SpM ->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1) 14. Holby ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1) 15. Jenny ->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2) 16. Formendacil ->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-1) 17. Findeasea ->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2) 18. Gurthang ->Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1) 19. Eomer ->Glirdan (Glirdan-2, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1) 20. Taliesin ->Eomer (Glirdan-2, Eomer-5, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1) No vote: Kath A few points worth noting, I think. First, as is often the case on Day 1s (whenever my line is present, at least), most of the votes went to innocents. The votees from Day 1 who remain unknown are: Glirdan (2 votes), Kath (1 vote) and Lalaith (2 votes). If we tentatively assume that at least one vote on Day 1 went to a Wolf (and I think it likely), then one of these is a Wolf. Then again, I'm not sure how far this gets us as, with 9 unknowns and 3 Wolves, one of these is likely to be a Wolf on the law of averages. More pertinently, of those in the Eomer bandwaggon, one was a Wolf and only one, TGWBS, remains unknown. Would two Wolves have voted in the Eomer bandwaggon? I tend to think not, which reinforces my feeling that TGWBS is likely to be innocent. Of those in the Nilp bandwaggon, three remain unknown: Durelin, Anguirel and Firefoot. Sticking by my theory that at least one Wolf voted in the Nilp bandwaggon, then at least one of these is a Wolf. I think that the two remaining Wolves would probably have placed their votes elsewhere. Of the "other" voters, Glirdan, Lalaith, SpM, Gurthang and (non-voter) Kath remain unknown. I think two of these people (excluding myself, for my purposes, obviously) are Wolves. Only one possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote - Glirdan's vote for Kath. I think it unlikely that a Wolf would have voted for another Wolf on Day 1, if for no other reason than it would most likely arouse their fellow Wolves' suspicions that they might be the traitor among them. If that's right, then either Glirdan or Kath is a Wolf, but not both. Glirdan's vote might be described as a safe vote, given that Kath was not under much suspicion. As for Kath's non-vote, well some of you have already considered whether a Wolf would be likely not to vote. Personally, I don't see why not. Other than that, the only vote that strikes me as particularly Wolfish is that of Gurthang, a safe, throwaway vote for Diamond when Nilp was almost done for and the only either possible lynchee was Eomer, although that is a point which has been raised previously. Day 2 voting record analysis coming up ...
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#6 | |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#7 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Same format.
1. Morm -> Anguirel (Ang-1) 2. Findesea -> Lalaith (Ang-1, Lalaith-1) 3. Lhuna -> Firefoot (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1) 4. Lalaith -> Formendacil (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1) 5. Rune -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-1) 6. SpM -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holbytlass-2) 7. Kath -> Jenny (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Formendacil-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1) 8. Glirdan -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-1) 9. Anguirel -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2) 10. Caran -> Firefoot (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2) 11. Jenny -> Formendacil (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2) 12. Taliesin -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-3) 13. Durelin -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-3) 14. Holbytlass - Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4) 15. Firefoot -> Lalaith (Ang-1, Lalaith-2, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4) 16. Gurthang -> morm (Ang-1, Lalaith-2, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4, morm-1) Did not vote: Formendacil, TGWBS, Diamond Again, the majority of the votes were for innocents. The unknows who received votes were: Anguirel (1 vote), Lalaith (2 votes) and Firefoot (2 votes). Again, it's likely that there's a Wolf there, by the law of averages if nothing else. The main bandwaggon of Day 2 was the Lhuna Express. Of the Lhuna-voters, Anguirel and Glirdan remain unknown. The voting on Day 2 was quite different in its manner from Day 1. There were no clear contenders for lynching, at least not until relatively late on. So I am not so certain that there's a Wolf among the Lhuna bandwaggon. They might well have sought to distance themselves from it. If there is a Wolf there, I tend to think Glirdan the more likely one. As I recall, it rather came out of the blue, Lhuna having featured fairly low on his earlier suspect list based on those who voted for Eomer. I cannot now recall, however, the circumtances of Ang's vote. The secondary bandwaggon was that for Holbytlass, and there we find our known Wolf, Rune. The other two Holby-voters, Durelin and myself remain unknowns. It is, however, a well known fact that Wolves spread their votes, so it follows that the two of us are innocent. ![]() ![]() Again, only one possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote: Firefoot's vote for Lalaith. Based on the same reasoning as that for Day 1, I think it unlikely that any Wolf would have voted for another on Day 2. There was no need to. And Firefoot's vote for Lalaith, taking her to 2 votes with four potential votes still in the offing, looks far too risky to me in the circumstances to be a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. I am fairly sure, therefore, that, if Lalaith is a Wolf, the Firefoot is not, and vice versa. Gurthang's vote again stands out as a possible Wolfish vote. With three non-voters, the one vote for morm (cast, I believe, shortly before the deadline) was never going to kill him. Again, a safe, throwaway vote. As with Kath, TGWBS's non-vote does not exempt him from suspicion, even though his two fellow non-voters were innocent. Day 3 to follow ...
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#8 | |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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#9 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Same routine.
1. Diamond -> SpM (SpM-1) 2. Rune -> TGWBS (SpM-1, TGWBS-1) 3. Morm -> Firefoot (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1) 4. Firefoot -> Durelin (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1) 5. Taliesin -> Glirdan (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1) 6. Durelin -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1) 7. SpM -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1) 8. Glirdan-> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1, morm-1) 9. TGWBS -> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1, morm-2) 10. Caran -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-2, morm-2) 11. Holby -> Durelin (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-2, morm-2) 12. Lalaith -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2) 13. Anguirel -> Kath (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2, Kath-1) 14. Kath -> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-3, Kath-1) 15. Gurthang -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1) 16. Findesea -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-3, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1) Now things get interesting, as Rune begins to attract some votes. But I will first turn to the morm bandwaggon, comprised as it was of 3 of those who remain unknown: Glirdan, TGWBS and Kath. I somehow doubt that the Wolves could have resisted the opportunity to get morm in the frame, even though there was never very much in the way of evidence against him as far as I can see. I am therefore pretty sure that one (but probably only one) of the morm voters is a Wolf. Based upon my feeling that TGWBS is likely innocent, that points to either Glirdan or Kath. There was also a Holby bandwaggon, comprising myself and Gurthang (plus an innocent Caran). Hmm, if I were to conclude that a Wolf was likely to have joined this bandwaggon (and I'm not entirely sure on that) then, as far as I am concered, that can only point to Gurthang. His vote is an interesting one as it bucked the trend of the previous Days, being as it was for an innocent who was in severe danger of being lynched. I believe that this followed comments about his previous votes having been safe, so (as I think I speculated yesterDay) was he trying to disguide his Wolfish behaviour? Or is that too obvious? Rune voted early for TGWBS. I think that the Wolves would probably still have been avoiding Wolf-on-Wolf votes at this stage and this would, in any event, have been a reckless Wolf-on-Wolf vote as I believe that there was a fair bit of muttering about TGWBS at the time Rune voted. I commented at the time that I thought the Wolves might have marked out TGWBS as a potential lynch victim for Day 3. Rune's Day 3 vote therefore puts TGWBS in a rather good light, I think. The same might also be said of Lalaith's vote for Rune. Why would one Wolf put another Wolf on 2 votes, to bring him level with three other cadidates? The only credible possibility, to my mind, is that she is the Lover Wolf and was trying to kill him, but I think that very unlikely as it would be far too risky, or that she is a Loveless Wolf and suspected him as the Lover Wolf. On balance, though, I still think it unlikely that a Wolf voted for a fellow Wolf on Day 3 and Lalaith's vote for Rune therefore speaks in her favour as far as I am concerned. One other possibility occurs to me. Perhaps Lalaith is the innocent Lover, knew Rune was a Wolf and was trying to take him out. Possible, but it would have been a risky move for her, as it risked exposing her to the Loveless Wolves. Other possible Wolf-on-Wolf votes: Anguirel for Kath and Firefoot for Durelin. Neither of these seems likely to me, but it's possible that one of them was. Relishing the prospect of a Day 4 analysis ...
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#10 |
Sword of Spirit
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Oh, I'm around.
Posts: 1,401
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Well, here's what I could scrounge together in the 25 minutes I had.
- - - - - - - - - - - - Day 1 - - - - - Day 2 - - - - - Day 3 - - - - - Day 4 Durelin . . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . .Holby . . . . . . . Rune . . . . . . . Rune Caranlondien . . . . .Jenny. . . . . . .Firefoot . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . Lalaith Kath . . . . . . . . . . (None) . . . . . . Jenny . . . . . . .morm . . . . . . Glirdan Lalaith . . . . . . . . . Form . . . . . . . Form . . . . . . . .Rune . . . . . .Gurthang Firefoot . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . . Lalaith . . . . . . Durelin . . . . . . Rune Gurthang . . . . . . .Diamond . . . . . morm . . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . . Rune Taliesin . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . Glirdan . . . . . .Saucey Saucepan Man . . . Holby . . . . . . . Holby. . . . . . . .Holby . . . . . . . Rune Anguirel . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . Kath . . . . . . . Rune Glirdan . . . . . . . . . Kath . . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . morm . . . . . . Saucey TGWBS . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . (none) . . . . . . . morm . . . . . . Gurthang Rune . . . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . . TGWBS . . . . . .Saucey Sadly, I again have to leave. But now that I have constructed a table, you can all use it and maybe I'll get back and have the chance. Oh, and before you say it Lalaith, let me: "He's just trying to look helpful to throw off suspicion." ![]() I think it's strange how all the pieces are falling into place and pointing straight at me. Although, as bad as this game has gone for me, it really shouldn't surprise me. ![]() *Play on a PotC quote.
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