Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

For the sake of completeness. Here are my notes on the way that suspicion gathered around Rune yesterDay. Apologies for the lack of post numbers, but I am farily sure that it accurately (and chronologically) reflects the way things went.

The case against Rune really started when Gurthang picked him up on the contradiction between his being reluctant to vote for me just because I would be a dangerous Wolf and his Day 1 vote for Eomer. So, Gurthang was really the first to raise serious suspicion of Rune yesterDay.

Then Anguirel voiced some suspicion of Rune - although he was not Ang’s top suspect at that point. Kath and Durelin, then me, preceeded Rune in his poem/list.

I then noted that I was a little concerned over Rune due to the tenor of his first post of the Day.

Findesea was next to state Rune as a suspect, along with Gurthang and Lalaith.

Rune then identified Gurthang as a suspect for his picking him up on the "dangerous as Wolf" issue. He also suspected Anguirel (as he had on previous Days).

Firefoot noted Rune’s faulty reasoning on the “dangerous as Wolf” issue.

Anguirel weighed in with a comment about Rune’s defence being “extraordinary oratory” and put in the first vote for Rune (SpM-1, Rune-1).

Durelin then said that she thought Rune looked Wolfish (continuing her suspicions from the previous Day).

Caran included Rune as a possible suspect, although she mentioned him last after Kath and Lalaith.

Firefoot mentioned Rune as a particular focus of her intended investigations.

Gurthang categorised Rune’s reaction to his comment as “over the top” and indicated that Rune would be likely receive his vote.

Fin analysed Rune and concluded that he seemed to have been playing it safe and that he looked pretty suspicious.

Firefoot concurred with Fin.

Durelin voted for Rune (SpM-1, Rune-2, Lalaith-1).

SpM outlined strong suspicions of Rune (explaining the concern expressed earlier over Rune's first post of the Day) and gave him his third vote (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1).

Lalaith said that she was torn between voting Gurthang or Rune (but voted for Gurthang).

Rune voted for me as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). It occurred to me that a vote for Gurthang would surely have been a better option, unless he was bargaining on me ultimately receiving more votes (and he could predict Taliesin and Glirdan would probably vote for me). Nevertheless, it's possible that he was protecting Gurthang.

Gurthang said that, even if it was between him and SpM, he would probably still vote for Rune. This is the comment that Lalaith picked up on earlier toDay.

Firefoot voted for Rune (SpM-3, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

Gurthang voted for Rune, citing my likely innocence (SpM-4, Rune-5, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

Fin did likewise, although clearly cross-posting with Gurthang, also citing a belief in my innocence (SpM-4, Rune-6, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

The main point to come out of this I think is that, as I noted earlier, it was really Gurthang that started the suspicion of Rune. And many concerns had already been expressed about Rune (by Anguirel, me, Fin and Firefoot - in that order) by the time Anguirel cast the first vote for him.

This does rather speak in Gurthang's favour (and, less so, Ang's) unless there was a Wolfish plan hatched the previous Night to sacrifice Rune. But that scenario is a distinct possibility in my mind, given that Rune attracted the joint highest number of votes on Day 3.

[The Saucepan Man]

Sorry for jabbering on folks. Just a bit more and then I'll shut up. As I said, I want to get all this down now as I will be away for most of the rest of the Day.

I know Caran has already done an analysis of Rune's posts, but I had already largely prepared my own analysis, so I might as well offer it up for general consumption.

Day 1:

Unreasoned (second) vote for innocent Eomer.

Day 2:

Agrees with Formendacil that Eomer’s death was calculated to cause confusion. Expresses surprise at so many votes for Nilp. Was he perhaps directing us towards the Nilp voters (of whom Durelin, Ang and Firefoot remain unknown)? [#119]

Tempted to agree with Jenny re Jenny’s explanation of her vote for Holby.

Picks up on morm’s case against Ang - thinks one of them a Wolf. Cannot read Glirdan. Thinks Lhuna innocent (she was). Needs strong evidence to vote for a potentially helpful, but also potentially dangerous, SpM. Came to suspect Holby and Firefoot on the basis of SpM’s reasoning. TGWBS seems crooked (gut feeling). Won’t vote for Jenny. Likely to vote for TGWBS, Holby, Firefoot or, possibly, Glirdan. [#161]

Defends Jenny again, against Taliesin. [#179]

Finds that Firefoot has been helpful, so will not vote for her. That leaves Glirdan and Holby (TGWBS disappears from his suspect list, although he reappears on Day 3). Votes Holby because “she is capable fo more” (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-1). [#189]

Day 3:

Expresses surprise that Jenny was the Hunter, but not surprised that she chose Form as her target. Challenges Glirdan’s assertion that he’s a vocal player. No prime suspect. [#227]

Analyses TGWBS, Glirdan, morm/Ang, Holby and Firefoot (his Day 2 stated suspects). Finds TGWBS very suspicious - quiet and confusing - and likely to get his vote. Finds Glirdan slightly suspicious. Still thinks either Ang or morm is a Wolf. Still suspicious of Holby, but unlikely to vote for her. Little suspicion of Firefoot because of her helpfulness. Thinks those not mentioned innocent for now. [#234]

Votes for TGWBS on previous reasoning (SpM-1, TGWBS-1). [#239]

Day 4:

Early post which says little, but which smacked of Wolvery to me. [#302]

In response to Di’s entreaty, would consider voting for SpM, but would need strong evidence. [#310]

Sees Gurthang as suspicious for picking up on his “dangerous villagers” comment. Sticking with his suspicion of Ang on the basis that morm turned out innocent. [#326 and #329]

Votes for SpM, supposedly as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). [#355]

Summary

It looks to me like Rune may have been setting Anguirel up with his "theory" that either morm or Anguirel was a Wolf. This is a technique that an ancestor of mine used as a Wolf to lay suspicion on first one innocent and then (when he died) another. To my mind, that speaks in Ang's favour.

Most of those that Rune explicitly stated he thought innocent innocent or defended have turned out innocent (Lhuna and Jenny).

His main stated suspects were TGWBS, Holby and Firefoot, though he later stated that his supicions of Firefoot had eased.

He expressed mild suspicion of Glirdan, morm and Ang (and, on Day 4, Gurthang).

As far as I can see, he never mentioned Kath, Lalaith and Durelin.

[The Saucepan Man]

I should, perhaps, make clear that the analysis of Rune in my previous post was directed mainly towards what he had said about his fellow passengers, rather than being a comprehensive analysis of his posts.

There now follows an analysis of what others have said about Rune. It may not pick up everything as I was relying on the thread search function, and also rather tired at the time (as indeed I am fast bcoming at this very moment).

Day 1:

Anguirel notes Rune as an early suspect - although that arose mainly from banter. [#51, #57 and #71]

Day 2:

Glirdan’s analysis of the Eomer-voters is interesting (#132, #135, #136, #139, #140 and #143). He finds Rune slightly suspicious and places him fourth in the list after Taliesin, Diamond (I think he meant Diamond by Engels, since TGWBS is also included) and TGWBS (with Lhuna - whom he later voted for - fourth).

Lalaith picks up on Glirdan’s analysis of Rune (and Taliesin). [#160]

Durelin suspects Rune for his early (unreasoned) vote for Eomer. [#165]

Anguirel considers that Eomer’s death may have been intended to frame an Eomer-voter and thinks Rune the most likely victim of such a frame-up. [#181]

Firefoot, in a comprehensive analysis, categorises Rune as a blundering innocent and says he seems too unsure of everything to be a Wolf. [#183]

Glirdan seizes upon Durelin’s comment that Rune has posted little and says he finds that worrying as he considers Rune to be normally “a really vocal player”. [#193]

Glirdan subsequently mentions Rune, among others, before voting for Lhuna. [#196]

Day 3:

Glirdan backs down from his comment about Rune being vocal. [#237]

Gurthang thinks Rune makes some good points about TGWBS being unreadable. [#238]

In a comprehensive analysis, Lalaith expresses serious worries about Rune - for bandwaggoning against Eomer, bantering too much and picking on TGWBS as an easy target. [#249]

Ang not unduly worried about Rune (in the context of Holby-voters). [#252]

Rune tops Durelin’s suspect list (with also includes Holby and Anguirel, possibly Taliesin) [258]

Durelin votes for Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1). [#261]

In response to Taliesin, Glirdan explains his comments on the Eomer voters and Rune in particular - found him suspicious as an Eomer-voter, but less so than most other Eomer voters. [#264]

Of those with votes, Ang suspects Rune and Durelin - neither emphatically. [#268]

Lalaith votes for Rune in the absence of her other suspects as front-runners (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2). [#277]

Kath notes Rune as a lynch candidate, but doesn’t really know what to think of him. [#286]

Findesea gave Rune his third vote - at the death, so to speak (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-3, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1).

For Day 4 - see analysis a few posts above.

Conclusions and thoughts about possible co-Wolves

Ang was to and fro about Rune from Day 1 through to Day 4, and even then Rune was not as high on his list as some others until the Gurthang spat. Possible Wolfish comrade.

Durelin was consistent in her suspicions of Rune from Day 2 on. Unlikely a fellow Wolf. But might be the innocent Lover, having been told of his Wolfishness.

Kath has hardly mentioned him. A definite possibility as a co-Wolf.

Lalaith was pretty firm in her suspicions of him on Day 3 and voted for him, putting him level with Durelin, Holby and morm on 2 votes, but did not vote for him on Day 4. Unlikely Wolvish comrade, but a possible innocent Lover.

Firefoot hardly mentioned him, noting him only as a blundering innocent, until the suspicion started to gather on Day 4. A possible Wolfish comrade.

Gurthang is in much the same boat as Firefoot with regard to Rune. His Day 3 vote could have been intended to save Rune and his Day 4 vote may well have been calculated to make him look good. A distinctly possible Wolfish comrade.

Glirdan mooted mild suspicions about Rune on Day 2, but didn’t really mention him much after that. Possible Wolfish comrade.

TGWBS has not mentioned Rune at all, but Rune was gunning for him on Day 3. The only credible possibility I see is that TGWBS is the Lover Wolf and Rune suspected him as such. Doubtful though.

[The Saucepan Man]

Right. I'm done. You will no doubt be glad that won't be hearing from me now until much later on (RL) tomorrow. I leave you with my own current thinking, based on all of the above.

Possible Wolves: Gurthang, Kath and Firefoot.
Could go either way: Anguirel and Glirdan
Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS and Durelin
Innocents: Caran and Taliesin

Innocent Lover: Lalaith? Durelin? Taliesin?

The though of a Wolfish Anguirel and an innocent Lalaith as Lovers somehow amuses me greatly. But I haven't really had time to go back and try to look for possible Lover connections, so my thoughts on the innocent Lover are tentative in the extreme.

And (except, obviously, for the known non-Wolves) my thoughts on the possible Wolves and innocents are by no means cast in stone. I'll make my mind up when I get back tomorrow and see what others have had to say.

Cheerio!

[Durelin]

OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved ).

Awww...and you had my hopes up...

Gurthang and Glirdan are looking the most suspicious right now, but that might change by RL tomorrow. Firefoot's up there, too. Kath is possible, but she's barely been around....which perhaps I should be more worried about, except that I feel for legitimate absences.

I haven't got anything more right now. Reading your analyses, Saucie, made me lose an ebay auction and I need to go and cry myself to sleep...

[Glirdan]

Okay, now I don't know what to think of Saucy. His analyses have eased my suspicions of him...somewhat. There's just something I don't trust about him. And those points Diamond brought up yesterDay...I really don't know what to think of him now...

Kath is also starting to worry me. She says very little and doesn't give any of her own input. She uses other peoples evidence for her reasonings without building on them.

Another person that's sligthly worrying me, and it's only because of a point that morm brought up on Day 2, is Ang. The death of Eomer is what really bugs me.

I'm still quite nervous of Taliesin and Caran, but only because it's possible one of them is the innocent Lover. I think we should go back and see if there's anyone either of them has protected constantly.

The rest don't seem overly odd. If anything, I'm inclined to believe that Gurthang and Durelin are probably innocent.

Idea just poped into my head! We all have that little nagging suspicion in us that either Taliesin or Caran could be the Wolf Lover (if you don't, then there might be something a little wrong with you). So, if we are to assume properly, the Wolves will be picking them off over the next two Nights. However, if one of them IS the Lover, one of the Wolves will be trying to persuade the others to keep away from that one. My suggestion is that if after the two Nights, one of them still lives, lynch him or her. That way, we get rid of the innocent who is not really innocent as well as getting rid of another Wolf.

However, just to ease my mind, I will still go back and analyse them.

[Glirdan]

Basically what I'm going to do is go over them quickly and see who they have defended constantly.

Taliesin: Quick Analysis

Day 1

All in character stuff. No defenses of anybody.

Day 2

Nothing here. Barely posted due to RL reasons I believe.

Day 3

Again, has barely posted and no defenses.

Day 4

And for the final time, no defenses. One thing I have noticed throughout all his posts, however, is he seems to be really consistent with his suspicions. I really don't see how he could be the Wolf Lover so he is officially cleared in my eyes.

I shall do my analysis of Caran later. For now, I must depart. I shall be back from my nap shortly.

[Firefoot]

I'm still quite nervous of Taliesin and Caran, but only because it's possible one of them is the innocent Lover. I think we should go back and see if there's anyone either of them has protected constantly.

Glirdan, I wouldn't worry about them. The wolves will pick them off, unless one of them is the innocent Lover and we pick off a non-Lover wolf toDay or tomorrow (toMorrow? ), in which case we would know that the one still around is the Lover because they wouldn't be dead (unless the wolves decided to bluff it, I guess). But right now there is no point in focusing our energies on them. In fact, your pointing them out for further checking is rather wolvish; "let's spend time looking at our innocents, then we won't find wolves..."

I really don't see how he could be the Wolf Lover so he is officially cleared in my eyes.

...What? Of course he's not the wolf lover. If he was that, he would have looked like a wolf to the seer.

Glirdan is becoming increasingly suspicious to me; I definitely want a further look at him...

A thought: now that we're getting down in numbers, using gender to find the Lovers might be useful; theoretically, one of Durelin, Kath, or Lalaith (or me, from the rest of your standpoints, I suppose) has to be guilty. Same goes for Glirdan, Sauce, Ang, Gurthang, and TGWBS (but there's more of you). And I would say that it's probable that not all the wolves were the same gender - seriously, there was about a 50-50 gender split; it would seem unlikely that all the wolves were male and only the innocent Lover was female (or vice-versa). Sheerly from a probability stand-point, I think it's likely that there are two guilty people from each list; one from each is a given. I'm not really sure how useful this will be from a strategic stand point, but there it is. Kath, I still don't really see as a wolf because of the no-voting thing, but maybe an innocent lover... so Durelin or Lalaith as a wolf? Both of these two have been suspicious to me in the past - maybe that's where I'll start when I pick up with this tomorrow morning. (I didn't get home until about an hour ago, and it's about time for me to sleep now. I'll have more thoughts/comments then; Glirdan just stood out to me.)

Oh, and for those of you who prefer my format (I know I have a hard time looking at the other sort):

Sauce – 4 (Diamond 1, Rune 9, Glirdan 10, Taliesin 12)
Rune – 5 (Ang 2, Durelin 4, Sauce 5, Firefoot 11, Gurthang 13, Findeasea 14)
Lalaith – 1 (Caran 3)
Glirdan – 1 (Kath 6)
Gurthang – 2 (TGWBS 7, Lalaith 8)