Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Caranlondien]

Hmm. I feel completely lost. Of the remaining males, I'm most suspicious of Gurthang and Glirdan. The females, I just can't decide on. If I were to go by a Sherlock Holmes-ish process of elimination, I'd be left with Firefoot. But I have to admit I could have missed something about Lalaith or Kath. And I'm afraid I may be too hasty in eliminating Durelin from my suspicions.

So far our only vote is Anguirel for Firefoot.

I'll be around for a while yet, so I'll hold off on voting.

[Lalaith]

I'm thinking along similar lines, Caran, but I would rather lynch Gurthang. Firstly because he still seems more suspicious to me - that gallows business doesn't convince me, much as I love Captain Jack - but also because it will have the added benefit of telling us something about Saucie.
He (Saucie) incriminated Gurthang fairly comprehensively in his post....it would be a very strange wolf-on-wolf thing to do when they were one down.

[Durelin]

but also because it will have the added benefit of telling us something about Saucie. He (Saucie) incriminated Gurthang fairly comprehensively in his post....

It would be nice to find out about Saucie...

But I'm going to go with who I feel is a wolf:

++Glirdan

[Gurthang]

Wow. I thought it'd be a one horse race toDay. Well, not like a race can really go anywhere on a ship. Sorry I wasn't here earlier. I didn't have time to make a post before work like I usually do.

The female thing is very interesting. A good thing to look into, I think. Although, there are a couple gaps. The possibility remains that Caran is the ordo-Lover. Also, since I still think myself likely to be lynched toDay, it would be a rather risky thing to pursue. Eleven people left toDay. We lynch one, an innocent, and that leaves 10. Nine after toNight. If you lynch one of the unknown females each of the next two Days, and even get the Lover or Lover-wolf, that leaves us with 4 left the next Day... and still with two wolves left, so we lose. I like the idea in theory, but I don't think we have enough time left for it to work.

I'll be back about a half hour before the deadline, as usual. Accompanying me will be my vote, also as usual. More likely than anything it will be for Glirdan, as he's looking the most wolvish of anyone.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

In-character stuff; explains biblical reference.

#77: Votes Nilp because otherwise we'll never figure him out.

Day Two

#107: Wonders what Nilp was thinking. Wonders why the wolves killed Eomer, a prime lynching candidate.

#138: Explains her vote for Nilp, says it was senseless but any vote at that time would have been.

#145: Curious about morm's early vote for Ang. Thinks if he's right he'll be killed as the Seer, if wrong the wolves are laughing with glee.

#164: Labels Durelin borderline. Thinks Caran, Holby, Fin, and Lhuna innocent.

#183: No verdict yet on Kath. Thinks Jenny innocent, could be Hunter. Wary of Lalaith. Borderline on Diamond. Thinks if Gurthang is anything, he's a lover. Says Form seems detached. Borderline on Glirdan, thinks Rune is too unsure to be a wolf. No idea on morm. Ang is on her suspect list, but not a major suspect. tgwbs is borderline leaning innocent.

#192: Thinks one of the people who voted for neither Nilp nor Eomer is probably a wolf. It seems that Lalaith is her main suspect.

#204:

Yeah... not comfortable with this at all. I'm here till the deadline; still not quite decided about my vote. Formen and Lalaith are both likely candidates but if I have to vote Lhuna or Holby to save myself I will, even if I won't like it.

#214: Votes Lalaith. Glad she didn't have to vote Holby or Lhuna to save herself.

#218:

Holby's vote doesn't really surprise me... even if she is an innocent. When it's yourself, a known innocent (at least to yourself) versus someone else who you only think is innocent... well...

Day Three

#228:

With four wolves and a lover still here, we now have a 5/16 shot at catching a wolf (since the wolf dies with the lover). That's pretty good odds... which is good and bad, I suppose - good because we have a reasonable chance of catching a wolf, bad because it means we haven't caught any yet...

#246: Says she had suspected morm might be the Seer, but since he was switching around in his suspicions he probably wasn't. Defends her vote, doesn't know what to think about morm's boldness, wants to look at voting record.

#256: Defends vote again. Says she may not be back, votes Durelin.

Day Four

#299: Looks at voting from yesterDay, thinks it unlikely we have bold wolves because there are few opportunities for wolf-on-wolf votes.

#300: Notes that wolves nearly always vote.

#305: Notes that in more recent games wolves nearly always vote.

#307: Discounts theory that SpM is innocent because he went after Holby during the Day instead of at Night. Thinks he is innocent for other reasons, though.

#328: Notes that known not-wolves don't know any more than the rest of the ordos. Thinks Gurthang brought up a good point about Rune.

#338: Takes Durelin, Kath, and tgwbs off her list of suspects. Doubts the Lovers will be doing much accusing of each other.

#342: Suspicious of Rune.

#352: Doesn't want to vote off a list of doom. Becoming suspicious of Glirdan.

#359: Votes Rune, who already has 4 votes, compared to SpM's 3.

Day Five

#393: Tells Glirdan not to worry about me or Taliesin being one of the lovers. Thinks Glirdan is becoming increasingly suspicious. Proposes using gender-ratio to find the Lovers.

#399: Thoughts on Durelin develops SpM-Durelin lover theory.

#400: Considers the SpM side of this possible lover-duo.

#403: Considers lynching Durelin; would prefer to lynch her than SpM.

#405: Lists suspicions:
Glirdan
Durelin
Gurthang, Ang, Lalaith (about equal)
Sauce, TGWBS
Kath
Caran, Taliesin

------------------------

Nothing overly suspicious, nothing overly innocent. Maybe I'm just shot. Oy vey. I have to swab the deck (coughmowthelawncough), so I can't hang around much longer.

[Caranlondien]

I actually will be able to get back near deadline if I get on with my deck swabbing now, so I can continue thinking and try to keep the voting on course at the end.

The voting so far:
1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)

[the guy who be short]

Sorry for coming in late. I was checking out Tolkien's University.

I don't really have time to do anything except steal other people's theories, like Kath.

So, I'm suspicious of Gurthang, Firefoot. I think SpM and lal are innocent.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hola friends and fiends! I am back.

Some jumbled ramblings, based on the events that have passed toDay since I was last here.

Glirdan’s suggestion to look at the known non-Wolves to see if one of them might be the innocent Lover is of concern as it would waste time that should be spent looking for Wolves. He also seems to be assuming that one of them definitely is.

But I get the impression that Glirdan is being far too careless to be a Wolf.

Firefoot’s suggestion that gender may help us seems to be directing us towards the females, which speaks in her favour as there are less unknown females than males. Then again, I suspect that Durelin (who I am now convinced is innocent, of Wolfishness at least) is one of the Wolves' targets toDay, so it by no means clears her (Firefoot) in my mind. My picks from the “ladies list” would be Kath and Firefoot.

Some reference has been made toDay again to Jenny’s suspect list, but I don't think that it will actually help us much in eliminating possible Wolves. Form was her most likely target and, since it is better from the Wolves’ persepective to kill the Hunter off sooner rather than later, I think that they would have been willing to take the risk of killing her, even if one or more of them was on her list. My ancestor and his Wolvish comrade (an ancestor of Caran’s brother) did much the same when Wolves.

Kath’s analysis of Glirdan is rather damning, I feel. A real hatchet job. Glirdan’s suspicions are all over the place. He is doing a lot of talking but not really going anywhere as his suspicions keep changing. Then again, I am wary of this particular analyser, Kath. I tend to think that Glirdan is the Wolves' other target for lynching toDay (with Durelin) and that a Kath-Wolf has been doing her utmost to bring this about (and good job, too, may I say ).

And, although there are many good points in Kath's analysis, this one is breathtaking:

Originally Posted by Kath

I've played a few games with Glirdan and I'm sure I've never seen him so flip-floppy.

Ooh! How can you say that? He was the original flipper flopper!

Another excellent analysis, this time by Caran, a relatively trusted source, with Firefoot as her subject. And despite Caran's conclusion, I think that it makes Firefoot look rather suspicious, and thus strengthens my own suspicions of her. She defends her votes rather a lot. She has appeared outwardly helpful, but some of the things that she has said look designed to spread confusion (for example, about the Wolves’ motives for killing Eomer). She labelled four unknown innocents as innocent in #164 (if a Wolf, she would know). This and some of the other things that she has said (for example that she thought morm might be the Seer) look to me like they might be calculated to make her look good without giving too much away.

That said, Gurthang still looks the most Wolfish to me, based on my analyses posted earler toDay. And I don't buy his "being resigned to being lyched" act. It's most likely a ploy designed to try to save himself. My vote is most likely to end up being cast in his direction.

Back later with my vote.

[Lalaith]

I'm going out now, and won't be back until well after deadline. So I will cast my vote now, for the reasons I stated above, and I hope that whatever happens tonight will be the best for the village.
++GURTHANG

[the guy who be short]

++Gurthang

Not sure if I can be back later, so it's best to vote now.

[Caranlondien]

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)

As if you couldn't tell that yourselves... I just have to have everything spelled out explicitly, I'm compulsive that way.

I'm going to look back over Gurthang and Glirdan myself, since I seem to be on an analysis roll. I do wish I felt more certain about the women of the village, because I'd like to take advantage of this gender-ratio while we have it. But I don't find any of them overly suspicious.

Cross-posted with SpM... who I so very much want to trust, because I'm agreeing with everything he's saying.

[Taliesin]

Why hello there, you're favourite known innocent is back!
Erm.. nevermind that.

Some quick thoughts:

I want to thank Kath for her Glirdan analysis. I've been watching him the last days as has been and is one of the most likely wolves in my opinion. The analysis strengthened this suspicion. I'm confident Glirdan is a wolf.

Firefoot brings up a great point about the Durelin / Sauce relation. Sauce does a very good job of keeping Durelin between the odd 'I'm watching her' and the 'She seems innocent'. Never really confirming her innocent, but never giving any theory about her wolfishness either.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Firefoot’s suggestion that gender may help us seems to be directing us towards the females, which speaks in her favour as there are less unknown females than males. Then again, I suspect that Durelin (who I am now convinced is innocent, of Wolfishness at least) is one of the Wolves' targets toDay, so it by no means clears her (Firefoot) in my mind. My picks from the “ladies list” would be Kath and Firefoot.

Again, Saucepan Man here defends Durelin trying to clear her of any suspicion, while throwing suspicion on two other unknown females.

I'll be right back with a list of suspicions.

[Glirdan]

Well, because my butt's fried (along with my brain ), I'm not even going to bother defending myself. I'm going to cast my vote for

++Saucy

He's still far too suspicious in my eyes. That and Taliesin has brought up a good point in his post. Saucy has been protecting Durelin far too much. And Durelin hasn't voted for him. I wonder why? Possible Lovers perhaps?