Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Kath · 06-30-2006, 04:48 PM

*sigh* I'm not even sure if I should analyse Sauce since the one I did on Glirdan yesterDay convinced me so wrongly of his wolvishness. But I won't rest on the matter until I've done it so. Beware this won't be up til tomorrow, Glirdan took me long enough and he probably had about half the number of posts Sauce will.

Other than Sauce my suspicions lie with TGWBS and Durelin. TGWBS because, despite his claims of 6th form, I know can participate more than he is doing. Such quietness with a seemingly fair excuse would be a wonderful thing to hide under. Durelin for much the same reason. I don't recall her having said much at all throughout the game.

So, that's three to do. At least two are going to be a bit shorter

**The Saucepan Man** · 06-30-2006, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath

I'm not even sure if I should analyse Sauce since the one I did on Glirdan yesterDay convinced me so wrongly of his wolvishness. But I won't rest on the matter until I've done it so. Beware this won't be up til tomorrow, Glirdan took me long enough and he probably had about half the number of posts Sauce will.

Ah well, if you want to take a short cut, you can use Diamond's analysis of me for part of it. It's pretty damning. And that's how you want it to turn out, isn't it? Just like your analysis of Glirdan.

Kath · 06-30-2006, 04:52 PM

For all you know it might come out showing you to be smelling of roses, though it is unlikely.

**The Saucepan Man** · 06-30-2006, 04:58 PM

Quote:

For all you know it might come out showing you to be smelling of roses, though it is unlikely.

Of course it's unlikely. You know that I am innocent, yet want to portray me as anything but. You have just given yourself away there, m'dear. Only a Wolf would pre-judge the outcome of her analysis.

Kath · 06-30-2006, 05:00 PM

I don't think that's true. Think about it, Diamond was an ordo yet her whole analysis was clouded by a preconceived view that you were a wolf. Your suspicions are based on the opinion that I am a wolf, so what I do is tainted by that suspicion.

Why am I even arguing with you? You're convinced, it won't help.

Taliesin · 06-30-2006, 05:02 PM

Woah.. well...

. I was convinced Glirdan was a wolf. I'm not very suprised by Caranlondien's death, as I'm really not making sense at all. This is not the first time I think I see a wolf in someone who turns out to be innocent this game...

Actually, I kind of figure that I'm not going to be lynched tonight aswell, because the wolves are making me look like the innocent lover. Yes, that's you Sauce.
I mean, how many more proved innocents must point us at Saucepan Man? It started with Holby, and now Glirdan aswell. How longer are we, the innocents, going to ignore this?

I'm going to sleep right now, but I'm hoping Kath can point us on some real evidence on Saucepan Man that convinces the rest of you aswell. But honestly, I'm already convinced. Trying to make me look like the innocent lover is exactly what I expected the wolves to do.

**The Saucepan Man** · 06-30-2006, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taliesin

Actually, I kind of figure that I'm not going to be lynched tonight aswell, because the wolves are making me look like the innocent lover. Yes, that's you Sauce.
I mean, how many more proved innocents must point us at Saucepan Man? It started with Holby, and now Glirdan aswell. How longer are we, the innocents, going to ignore this?

Taliesin, if I am wrong about you, all I can say is that you have got it all wrong - just like you did with Glirdan. You need to rethink, or we are going to lose.

But I rather think that I am right. In which case, you should know that I'm not a Wolf. So why bother with me? You want to think about killing a real Wolf, so that you and your furry paramour have a chance of winning.

Kath · 06-30-2006, 05:29 PM

TGWBS:
Post 63 - in character talk with a vote for Eomer born out of that talk. A very early vote, though there was some reasoning for that as he said he had to go out.

Post 158 - indicated trust of Sauce and Glirdan, with some reasoning, and said we shouldn't look at either the Nilp or Eomer voters because that is what the wolves want us to do. Thinking from the wolves point of view can be helpful, but to so utterly disregard an option isn't, especially since we have now seen that a wolf was indeed in one of those bandwagons.

Post 221 - looks like a bit of facetiousness, says he'd help out if he were more conscious. Well not exactly helpful, and not even that late when he said it.

Post 225 - explains his not sense comment and says he'll be back after sleep.

Post 267 - apologises for being late. Finds morm suspicious because morm thinks he is behaving oddly, and TGWBS is saying that if he were a wolf he would not be behaving oddly, he would he behaving like he would as an ordo so as to avoid suspicion. It's a fair, in rather confusing, point, except that what a perfect bluff that would make! To be able to say, 'of course I'm not a wolf, would I be making myself so obvious if I were'? I believe that TGWBS could be such a bold wolf, I am not sure that he would be one right now due to the time constraints he is under. Doesn't suspect Caran for using the same reasoning as morm because she hasn't played with him so often. Puts suspicion on me for not taking his 6th form duties into account. That's because sure, it's a lot of work, but it isn't that much. There are people playing who work far later into the evening yet are still getting more input in. Joking comment to Sauce.

Post 269 - votes for morm because of some suspicion and because it's traditional. Not a great bit of reasoning for a vote, especially when not Day 1, but at least there is some.

Post 276 - points out some hypocrisy on morm's part, though claims it is not meant to throw suspicion on him. Odd after voting for him.

Post 292 - says Holby was foolish to reveal as morm would have died first anyway, but thanks her for it anyway. Well, that comment could be taken either way but the sentiment seemed genuine.

Post 294 - after Day end post immediately suggesting the known innocents lead the village from now on. This has worked in previous villages and so was a good suggestion, except for the possibility that one of them was the innocent Lover, which I don't think he took into account at the time.

Post 327 - pleads that the known innocents draw up lists to vote from.

Post 346 - again proposes the list idea, saying that the three will be absolutely objective. Well, no. There possibility that one of the three could be the innocent Lover is still there, and their opinions will have been influenced by those of the rest of the village. Also argues with Gurthang a little over a difference in opinion.

Post 349 - creates his own lists for the innocents based on their suspicions and votes for Gurthang because of a feeling and because he appeared on all three lists. A little subjective as they didn't categorically state that these were their suspicions, he drew them from their posts.

Post 412 - again apologises for lateness and says he will have to emulate me and steal other peoples theories, deciding to suspect Gurthang and Firefoot based on them, presumably using the reasoning previously mentioned.

Post 414 - votes Gurthang, again I'm presuming based on others reasoning, as he may not be back later.

Post 435 - says he would look at Gurthang and Firefoot as they are his chief suspects but he is too busy. Helpful that

Well, I must say I'm having difficulty believing a wolf would be so carefree about everything. He's barely posted, has said almost nothing within those posts. His votes rarely have any reasoning behind them, and yet while these traits often point to wolvishness, in this case they seem to be the opposite. I mean, he's not even trying. My opinion right now is just that he's an extremely unhelpful innocent, except in terms of making up the numbers. It could all be an act, it would be a perfect example of flying under the radar, but I really don't think so.

Kath · 06-30-2006, 05:32 PM

That's it from me for now. Need sleep!

Back in the morning (RL) to do Durelin and Sauce.

Gurthang · 06-30-2006, 05:54 PM

Uhm...

I'm confused. There's quite a few accusations flying around, and I only wish I had time to sort through and think them all out.

Saucepan and Taliesin are going at each other pretty good, and Kath and Saucey's little spat just now seems really strange.

But, seeing as I have to go (again) I'll just have to see how it plays out through the Day.

Durelin · 06-30-2006, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Durelin for much the same reason. I don't recall her having said much at all throughout the game.

Analysis isn't my thing. It never has worked for me, though I've tried it before. Also, believe it or not, I have been short on time, due to having to prioritize.

(And for this, I apologize to everyone, especially Cailin, as the moddess.)

I'm a little worried about one thing, though. And that is why I'm not dead yet.

**The Saucepan Man** · 06-30-2006, 05:59 PM

Hmm, Kath's analysis of TGWBS has me wondering about him. As I read through it, knowing her to be a Wolf, I though that she was going to make a case against him. But she ends up effectively clearing him, which makes me wonder whether he might not be innocent after all. I have become increasingly doubtful as to whether Gurthang is a Wolf. It might be too obvious, if you get my meaning. And then there's that spat with Rune. It could have been a deliberate Wolfish effort to get Rune lynched and thereby earn credit. Or it could have been an innocent accusing a Wolf which at least one other Wolf (Firefoot and, possibly, Anguirel) seized on to gain credit.

Gurthang, Anguirel and TGWBS - I know that one of you is a Wolf, but I think it's only one. My message to the two of you who are innocent is please let's co-operate and rid ourselves of a Wolf toDay.

I am certain that Durelin is innocent and almost certain about Lalaith, so my message to you two is the same.

Firefoot and Kath are Wolves. We must kill one of them toDay or we are most probably lost.

**The Saucepan Man** · 06-30-2006, 06:17 PM

If we kill an innocent toDay, the Loveless Wolves will have a choice. They could kill the innocent Lover (which the Wolf Lover would try to prevent, but no doubt be powerless to prevent) or they could kill a plain innocent.

If they kill the innocent Lover, then you have lost.

If they kill a plain innocent, then toMorrow’s complement will be 3 Wolves (2 Loveless and 1 Lover) and 4 innocents (3 Ordos and 1 Lover). Very easy for the two Loveless Wolves to engineer the killing of either a plain innocent or the innocent Lover in this situation. Either way, you lose and the Wolves win.

But, if we kill a Loveless Wolf toDay, the innocent Lover will almost certainly be safe toNight. A plain innocent will be killed. That leaves 2 Wolves (1 Loveless and 1 Lover) and 5 innocents (4 Ordos and 1 Lover) toMorrow. Much easier for the Lovers to win from this position. And although I will do my damndest to prevent that happening when it comes to it, I would reiterate that, for toDay, it is in your best interests to help the innocents kill a Loveless Wolf.

Firefoot · 06-30-2006, 06:34 PM

Wow, Sauce seems... riled.

I'm a bit confused where the Taliesin = lover came from... also, I have no idea where you get me to be his lover. At least I had back-up for my theory.

I don't even know how to defend myself to Sauce's accusations, since I'm not exactly sure what they're based on... all I know is he has suspected me from Day 1, and a lot of it had been of the "she makes a good point here, but there's always this..." variety (not lately, obviously).

Quote:

I'm confused. There's quite a few accusations flying around, and I only wish I had time to sort through and think them all out.

What he said.

Durelin · 06-30-2006, 06:39 PM

Quote:

At least I had back-up for my theory.

And Taliesin was at the head of it.

**The Saucepan Man** · 06-30-2006, 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I'm a bit confused where the Taliesin = lover came from... also, I have no idea where you get me to be his lover.

Taliesin is behaving in the manner that I would expect a Wolf to behave at this stage in our travails. Since he is clearly not a Wolf, I strongly suspect that he is the innocent Lover.

I really don't know whether his Lover is you or Kath. But it is one of the two of you.

As for my certainy about you, well it's based on my long analyses yesterDay, which your behaviour toDay has confirmed in my mind.

If you are the Wolf Lover, do me a favour and vote for a Wolf.

Durelin · 06-30-2006, 06:51 PM

I've been wary of trusting Sauce this entire game. Right now I'm starting to feel like I've been kept alive because I trust him.

Sauce should be dead by now, except that the wolves of course tried to get rid of the gifteds first, and then they had to deal with (and are still dealing with) the innocents that Holby revealed.

I'm not dead probably because I'm normally seen as worthless.

Fair enough, I suppose.

I think if Sauce was a wolf, though, it's more likely that I would be dead by now. Because a good 'I told you so' is a good way to boost people's image of you. Except...the wolves, whoever they are + Rune, have been busy.

Bleh...I'm trying to think things through, and it's not working.

I think I'm still going to go with Sauce being innocent, though, for now, at least.

Oh, and yes, I'll tell you right now: the whole purpose of this post was to show that I have a little bit of suspicion-feeling stuff concerning SPM just to throw you guys off of our trail, cause you know he's been telling me who to lynch this whole time. Right.

EDIT: Cross-posted with SPM.

06-30-2006, 04:48 PM	#1
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	sigh I'm not even sure if I should analyse Sauce since the one I did on Glirdan yesterDay convinced me so wrongly of his wolvishness. But I won't rest on the matter until I've done it so. Beware this won't be up til tomorrow, Glirdan took me long enough and he probably had about half the number of posts Sauce will. Other than Sauce my suspicions lie with TGWBS and Durelin. TGWBS because, despite his claims of 6th form, I know can participate more than he is doing. Such quietness with a seemingly fair excuse would be a wonderful thing to hide under. Durelin for much the same reason. I don't recall her having said much at all throughout the game. So, that's three to do. At least two are going to be a bit shorter __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” Last edited by Kath; 06-30-2006 at 04:51 PM. Reason: changed but to bit, as it made no sense

06-30-2006, 04:52 PM	#3
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	For all you know it might come out showing you to be smelling of roses, though it is unlikely. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-30-2006, 05:00 PM	#5
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	I don't think that's true. Think about it, Diamond was an ordo yet her whole analysis was clouded by a preconceived view that you were a wolf. Your suspicions are based on the opinion that I am a wolf, so what I do is tainted by that suspicion. Why am I even arguing with you? You're convinced, it won't help. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-30-2006, 05:29 PM	#8
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	TGWBS: Post 63 - in character talk with a vote for Eomer born out of that talk. A very early vote, though there was some reasoning for that as he said he had to go out. Post 158 - indicated trust of Sauce and Glirdan, with some reasoning, and said we shouldn't look at either the Nilp or Eomer voters because that is what the wolves want us to do. Thinking from the wolves point of view can be helpful, but to so utterly disregard an option isn't, especially since we have now seen that a wolf was indeed in one of those bandwagons. Post 221 - looks like a bit of facetiousness, says he'd help out if he were more conscious. Well not exactly helpful, and not even that late when he said it. Post 225 - explains his not sense comment and says he'll be back after sleep. Post 267 - apologises for being late. Finds morm suspicious because morm thinks he is behaving oddly, and TGWBS is saying that if he were a wolf he would not be behaving oddly, he would he behaving like he would as an ordo so as to avoid suspicion. It's a fair, in rather confusing, point, except that what a perfect bluff that would make! To be able to say, 'of course I'm not a wolf, would I be making myself so obvious if I were'? I believe that TGWBS could be such a bold wolf, I am not sure that he would be one right now due to the time constraints he is under. Doesn't suspect Caran for using the same reasoning as morm because she hasn't played with him so often. Puts suspicion on me for not taking his 6th form duties into account. That's because sure, it's a lot of work, but it isn't that much. There are people playing who work far later into the evening yet are still getting more input in. Joking comment to Sauce. Post 269 - votes for morm because of some suspicion and because it's traditional. Not a great bit of reasoning for a vote, especially when not Day 1, but at least there is some. Post 276 - points out some hypocrisy on morm's part, though claims it is not meant to throw suspicion on him. Odd after voting for him. Post 292 - says Holby was foolish to reveal as morm would have died first anyway, but thanks her for it anyway. Well, that comment could be taken either way but the sentiment seemed genuine. Post 294 - after Day end post immediately suggesting the known innocents lead the village from now on. This has worked in previous villages and so was a good suggestion, except for the possibility that one of them was the innocent Lover, which I don't think he took into account at the time. Post 327 - pleads that the known innocents draw up lists to vote from. Post 346 - again proposes the list idea, saying that the three will be absolutely objective. Well, no. There possibility that one of the three could be the innocent Lover is still there, and their opinions will have been influenced by those of the rest of the village. Also argues with Gurthang a little over a difference in opinion. Post 349 - creates his own lists for the innocents based on their suspicions and votes for Gurthang because of a feeling and because he appeared on all three lists. A little subjective as they didn't categorically state that these were their suspicions, he drew them from their posts. Post 412 - again apologises for lateness and says he will have to emulate me and steal other peoples theories, deciding to suspect Gurthang and Firefoot based on them, presumably using the reasoning previously mentioned. Post 414 - votes Gurthang, again I'm presuming based on others reasoning, as he may not be back later. Post 435 - says he would look at Gurthang and Firefoot as they are his chief suspects but he is too busy. Helpful that Well, I must say I'm having difficulty believing a wolf would be so carefree about everything. He's barely posted, has said almost nothing within those posts. His votes rarely have any reasoning behind them, and yet while these traits often point to wolvishness, in this case they seem to be the opposite. I mean, he's not even trying. My opinion right now is just that he's an extremely unhelpful innocent, except in terms of making up the numbers. It could all be an act, it would be a perfect example of flying under the radar, but I really don't think so. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-30-2006, 05:32 PM	#9
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	That's it from me for now. Need sleep! Back in the morning (RL) to do Durelin and Sauce. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-30-2006, 05:02 PM	#6
Taliesin Pile O'Bones Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 19	Woah.. well... . I was convinced Glirdan was a wolf. I'm not very suprised by Caranlondien's death, as I'm really not making sense at all. This is not the first time I think I see a wolf in someone who turns out to be innocent this game... Actually, I kind of figure that I'm not going to be lynched tonight aswell, because the wolves are making me look like the innocent lover. Yes, that's you Sauce. I mean, how many more proved innocents must point us at Saucepan Man? It started with Holby, and now Glirdan aswell. How longer are we, the innocents, going to ignore this? I'm going to sleep right now, but I'm hoping Kath can point us on some real evidence on Saucepan Man that convinces the rest of you aswell. But honestly, I'm already convinced. Trying to make me look like the innocent lover is exactly what I expected the wolves to do.

06-30-2006, 05:54 PM	#10
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	Uhm... I'm confused. There's quite a few accusations flying around, and I only wish I had time to sort through and think them all out. Saucepan and Taliesin are going at each other pretty good, and Kath and Saucey's little spat just now seems really strange. But, seeing as I have to go (again) I'll just have to see how it plays out through the Day. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

06-30-2006, 05:59 PM	#12
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Hmm, Kath's analysis of TGWBS has me wondering about him. As I read through it, knowing her to be a Wolf, I though that she was going to make a case against him. But she ends up effectively clearing him, which makes me wonder whether he might not be innocent after all. I have become increasingly doubtful as to whether Gurthang is a Wolf. It might be too obvious, if you get my meaning. And then there's that spat with Rune. It could have been a deliberate Wolfish effort to get Rune lynched and thereby earn credit. Or it could have been an innocent accusing a Wolf which at least one other Wolf (Firefoot and, possibly, Anguirel) seized on to gain credit. Gurthang, Anguirel and TGWBS - I know that one of you is a Wolf, but I think it's only one. My message to the two of you who are innocent is please let's co-operate and rid ourselves of a Wolf toDay. I am certain that Durelin is innocent and almost certain about Lalaith, so my message to you two is the same. Firefoot and Kath are Wolves. We must kill one of them toDay or we are most probably lost. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! Last edited by The Saucepan Man; 06-30-2006 at 06:00 PM. Reason: clarification

06-30-2006, 06:17 PM	#13
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	For the attention of the Lovers If we kill an innocent toDay, the Loveless Wolves will have a choice. They could kill the innocent Lover (which the Wolf Lover would try to prevent, but no doubt be powerless to prevent) or they could kill a plain innocent. If they kill the innocent Lover, then you have lost. If they kill a plain innocent, then toMorrow’s complement will be 3 Wolves (2 Loveless and 1 Lover) and 4 innocents (3 Ordos and 1 Lover). Very easy for the two Loveless Wolves to engineer the killing of either a plain innocent or the innocent Lover in this situation. Either way, you lose and the Wolves win. But, if we kill a Loveless Wolf toDay, the innocent Lover will almost certainly be safe toNight. A plain innocent will be killed. That leaves 2 Wolves (1 Loveless and 1 Lover) and 5 innocents (4 Ordos and 1 Lover) toMorrow. Much easier for the Lovers to win from this position. And although I will do my damndest to prevent that happening when it comes to it, I would reiterate that, for toDay, it is in your best interests to help the innocents kill a Loveless Wolf. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!

06-30-2006, 06:51 PM	#17
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	I've been wary of trusting Sauce this entire game. Right now I'm starting to feel like I've been kept alive because I trust him. Sauce should be dead by now, except that the wolves of course tried to get rid of the gifteds first, and then they had to deal with (and are still dealing with) the innocents that Holby revealed. I'm not dead probably because I'm normally seen as worthless. Fair enough, I suppose. I think if Sauce was a wolf, though, it's more likely that I would be dead by now. Because a good 'I told you so' is a good way to boost people's image of you. Except...the wolves, whoever they are + Rune, have been busy. Bleh...I'm trying to think things through, and it's not working. I think I'm still going to go with Sauce being innocent, though, for now, at least. Oh, and yes, I'll tell you right now: the whole purpose of this post was to show that I have a little bit of suspicion-feeling stuff concerning SPM just to throw you guys off of our trail, cause you know he's been telling me who to lynch this whole time. Right. EDIT: Cross-posted with SPM.