Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Anguirel]

The two main developments since I left have been Engels' vote and Kath's Sauce analysis. Both are interesting, in that they attract the attention of my lynch-instigating instincts.

Engels has two main suspects-Kath and Firefoot. The evidence for the guilt of Kath is far more concrete.

Originally Posted by Engels

Going over SpM's analyses from yesterday, I end up feeling more uncomfortable about Kath than either Gurthang or Firefoot, largely on her voting record. She conveniently doesn't vote on Day 1, votes for an innocent Jenny unlikely to be lynched on day 2, clinches morm's death - saving Rune - on day 3, and votes for an innocent Glirdan on Day 4. She often votes for minor candidates with no chance of lynching. On Day 5, She votes for Glirdan, potentially equalising with a wolvish Gurthang, and staring a bandwagon.

Yet he votes Firefoot. This seems to me an astute course of action for a wolf, latching onto the bloody-mindedness of the innocent Sauce to form a rapid consensus against Firefoot before anyone has had real time to consider. It's evocative of the Glirdan bandwagon of yesterday, actually.

Now, Kath's indictment of Sauce is largely based on the fact that she, like me, is disconcerted by his certainty. She says only a wolf or innocent lover could be so certain. Sauce is really certain. Ergo he is a wolf or innocent lover.

Rank tosh, m'dear. That's like saying "Only wolves have fur and growl. Sauce has fur and growls. Ergo he's a wolf." The point is, why would a wolf openly swagger about revealing fur and growling? Why would an innocent Lover or Wolf flaunt their certainty? I believe they'd be much more likely to affect an attitude of haplessness-like you, Kath, or like Durelin.

Like the North Wind the Pan Man blows
So Firefoot to the gallows goes.
Yet in my view t'would be more wise
To swing sly Miss Kath in the skies
And others too do inspire fear
(Durelin, Gurthang, Engels near)
In me-I wouldn't be dismayed
If those four were be scaffold laid.