Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Nogrod]

Preliminary thoughts about five hours before the deadline, subject to chance as the bands get to play more.

Menelteramacil and Boromir88 have been engaging in most honest sounding discussion. Some mighty wonders are needed to make me vote for either toDay.

Rune and Folwren have participated in the same discussion with points but more in a following role. Same holds especially to Celuien. That might be an ideal position for a wolf to hide in? But without further points against any one of them I'm not going to vote any of them toDay as I see them all as valuable asssets as innocents.

From Macalaure, Diamond18 and Thinlomien I would really like to hear more...

THE Ka I really can't say anything about.

Eonwe has been more vocal and non-random as earlier generation-Eonwes. What to make of it?

Volo feels a bit awkward. The Ka had a point in her vote: too many handshakes as to make friends from the very first moments? Or just wishing well when having nothing else to say?

Glirdan and Durelin have surely acted strangely and somewhat "non-productively", but as some people have suggested, they might just be themselves...

So if Glirdan and Durelin are not the wolves (which I think likely), then the wolves play pretty well. Too bad for us.

Back to the band training and giving all this some further thought...

EDIT: X-ed with a lot...

[Celuien]

++ Volo

I feel like I just can't get a read on the posts, which makes me uncomfortable.

*off to work*

[Glirdan]

Okay, going over Folwern's posts I found things that struck me as....well, odd.

A very, very shocking beginning. Being beheaded is not a very good thing. I'm rather shocked that. . .that would have happened. . .so soon. You'd think the villains would wait a few deaths later to get gruesome.

So what, you expected a murder? Is it because you're one of them planning it and your guilty conscious is trying to get out?

And don't try to derive any strange and twisted meaning out of this first post be cause there isn't any.

And why would you go and say that? Is it because there was something strange and twisted in the post?? Hmmmm....

I'm going to quote Boromir not because I'm accusing him or anything, but to make things more conveniently looked up.

This is honestly the wierdest thing you have said yet. Why would you say that? It's fine to quote people. Look at me! I'm doing it right now!! This scentence really strikes me as suspicious. It's like you're hiding something again and your concious(sp? [Ihonestly think I'm spelling that wrong]) is fighting to break out.

Look, Lommy - I said not to try to take any twisted meaning out of my words. Didn't I say that? It was an awkward business making the first post. I couldn't tell what people would think. It was an ice breaking post and I had absolutely nothing to say.

And again, why would you say "I said not to try to take any twisted meaning out of my words." If anything, that makes you look more suspicous.

Over-defensive? Well, yes, maybe so. I've been accused of that many, many times before. But see here, being an innocent, I have no guilty conscience, therefore I don't feel guilty about arguing my way out of a tight spot (or an imaginary tight spot) because I don't have to lie about it. Also, being an innocent, I'm scared to death that someone, as you have done, will point their finger at me, take their attention off the real wolves, and kill a friend. That's why I'm attomatically defensive.

I bolded the part I really want to talk about here. The problem with that is that we don't know who the Wolves are. We don't know if we can trust you. How do we know that you're not a Wolf?

Nogrod, please, please, just this round, give me the benefit of the doubt. I am not guilty. We're drawing so near to the end that one more vote for me may be the end!

This sounds like a plea of a Wolf trying to stay alive and attack more innocents. I really don't like it. If you're as innocent as you say you are Folwren, why would you have cared about being lynched? I personally would feel like a sacrifice, a way to get closer to finding the Wolves. This really sounds like a Wolf plea to me.

Which brings me all the way back to her throwaway vote.

Hmmm, I'll be around if you need me.

[THE Ka]

Lucky guess, Morrissey...

Moz sings, "... We hate it when our friends become successful"

Anyways...

That coffin is just... ugh, no one should go out in that style, especially in nice shoes. Obviously whoever did this has no sense of style, for one, but onto the other facts.

Originally Posted by Rune

2. they could have saved their fellow wolf and maybe even make it look inoccent.

From personal past experience as playing a werewolf in my last game, there is usually one werewolf who has to take a dive for the sake of the others... Thus the 'fenris wolves'. It is also a tactic that is somewhat good at keeping the rest of the players still with without much a clue as to any connections, that is, if their fellow wolves don't blow the whole thing by being too defensive, or otherwise too friendly.

Speaking of that, it would be nice to check up on how everyone reacted to Volo being voted for.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Also, being an innocent, I'm scared to death that someone, as you have done, will point their finger at me, take their attention off the real wolves, and kill a friend. That's why I'm attomatically defensive.

Being defensive is a tricky ordeal. Either, it is a wolf who's a bit shaky at how things are going and trying to pull heart strings, or an innocent who is in a bit of a corner and doing the same. Hmmm, I would keep an eye on this.

Originally Posted by Folwren

To save my own skin.

I understand RL issues. Though, as an innocent, I wouldn't say that if I was caught in a corner. It doesn't seem very logical for a wolf to say that either, really. Sounds like a flustered reply, but a very suspicious one at that.


I'm beginning to see that maybe our wolves are not working together so well, but that depends on whether all of this flustering is not a cover up for it. Then again, wolves have the advantage at knowing whom they are in good arms with against others and how (hopefully) to act, while innocents are for themselves unless proven otherwise, which is rare. Either our wolves were scrambling yesterday, and had somewhat of a disarray, or all of this flustering is a neat diversion for confusion.

Whatever comes, I think I will have to go back and take more of a look at all of this when I can. Folwren's actions do not seem the best making for a wolf, or innocent, but mostly that of a wolf. Others in question, do not seem that easy to get by.

[Macalaure]

Sorry for being so short today. We should be looking at the things Volo said and did yesterday. I hope I will later find the time to.

For now:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Mac seems the least right to me right now. His late vote for Volo would be excellent cover, but he doesn't even produce any reason at all!

And then there's this:

Quote:
You could've waited that few more minutes, Nogrod...


Hmm. A little...protective...? (Not the best word.) But perhaps too obvious.

First, I was the one who suggested that the remaining people voted Volo. Just because I happen to be the second of the actual voters doesn't make it a cover.

Second, yes, my reasons (given a few posts before what you quote) are weak, very weak in fact. The final reason was not so much against Volo, but more for the others.

Third, I don't know what you mean by 'protective'. As I said, I was all but convinced of Volo's guilt and so I hoped that his last post would have anything in it that would convince me either way. Then Nogrod decided not to wait (said he didn't see Volo's 'I'm going to post soon'), and I thought that was a pity...

I expect that, by the time I come back much later, somebody has suspected me for being too defensive.

[Eonwe]

Glirdan, I've gotta say, I think more highly of your werewolf skills than you're post (#85) would give you credit for. If you wanna go over some posting, make it a post were Folwren made some arguments, not just a ice-breaker post. You might as well pick up on my wamybar post and say "Well, the only one he didn't offer to check was himself! Ha, we've found our wolf, baby!"

I'm inclined to suspect Glirdan right now, but his behavior is so far out on a limb in my opinion, that I'm not sure if I should.

I'll read somemore and post some more later.

[Durelin]

All but convinced of his guilt, Mac? I don't know, perhaps you use such a prase more lightly than I do...

This is all you had to say about Volo:

Originally Posted by Mac

The only one about which I am suspicious to a ridiculously small degree is Volo, because his summary doesn't sit well with me.

Originally Posted by Mac

This leaves me again with Volo, whom I could vote for though with a bad conscience and a bad feeling.

Mostly your posts are a lot of "I don't want to vote for people," which is perfectly understandable (I feel that way all the time!)...but what's not is you coming back the next day, when you must defend yourself, and saying 'I was all but convinced of Volo's guilt.'

I'm not condemning you yet, don't worry. (And I haven't forgotten about everyone else yet, either.) But I find that disturbing.

[Nogrod]

Okay, just a few points at first (I have a really bad Day today as I must be away less than 12 hours from now and need to have my night's sleep during the time).

I'm ready to take Folwren as an innocent for now. I came to that conclusion over the last hour of yesterDay as I went through her posting and am not ready to change it, at least with what Glirdy has brought against her.

Although I must say that I agree that my - admittedly thin - lorebook of Folwren's family that she isn't quite acting like her family-members have acted before.



But then there is something a bit bit strange with Macalaure. I'm sorry to say that as our families have had a history of being even-minded in many games before.

Why Mac you say:

First, I was the one who suggested that the remaining people voted Volo. Just because I happen to be the second of the actual voters doesn't make it a cover.

When it most obviously is not true? Let's look at the posts of the end of the Day1.

Originally Posted by Nogrod #60

Volo I'm a bit aware of, as his "defence" of himself seemed like trying to be useful without actually doing anything (making the scanty summary of the posts so far) and that has been considered quite wolvish, with a reason I daresay. But then again, he acted pretty "shady and suspicious" as Boro named it, already in his first game before this.

Originally Posted by Mac #61

The only one about which I am suspicious to a ridiculously small degree is Volo, because his summary doesn't sit well with me.

Originally Posted by Nogrod #66

Maybe we should reconsider the "middle-men" as I suggested earlier, namely Rune and Celuien (I'm out with voting for Folwren now). They have trailed the discussion of Menel and Boro nicely. A good shady place for a wolf to pass behind the notice of everyone else?

Or then Volo? 15 minutes...

Originally Posted by Nogrod #67

Volo's last post about himself:
Quote:
#38 Volo says what people have said and goes off somewhere (to koiralenkki).

THat last one there, the "koiralenkki" means a walk with the dog (or jogging with the dog). Curious it would take him more than two and half hours as not to make it to the end?

I might vote Volo on this... Avoiding the discussion?

Originally Posted by Mac #69

Out of the ones who have two votes, I don't like to vote for me and I don't like to vote for Folwren. This leaves me again with Volo, whom I could vote for though with a bad conscience and a bad feeling.

Originally Posted by Nogrod #70

Okay, I'll do it.

If you are an innocent extreme-sports man, I apologise, but 2½ hours with the dog outside when the heat is on in the WW-game just doesn't sound right. It sounds like avoiding the chance of making mistakes and that's something a wolf might wish to do...

++ Volo

Originally Posted by Mac #71

You could've waited that few more minutes, Nogrod...

Originally Posted by Mac #73

OK, I'm sorry. The deadline's here and I will vote now.

++Volo

If you really are a wolf then this is going to be pure luck...

edit: ... but also fun!
editedit: I mean last minute tumult, not voting Volo.

From this it is hard to figure out a coinstellation where Macalaure was the leading lyncher of Volo... So why do you want to say that you were? A wolf would have a reason for that, but why you. I know you are a capable and intelligent player, so what is the point? I must say that your defence of yourself has lighted lots of alarm-bells in my mind.

EDIT: X-ed with Durelin and agree with her a lot...

[Boromir88]

Well I went through Volo's posts, so perhaps this may help a little bit.

Volo's first two posts, there really isn't much to go from. He's in character, and he agrees with Menel and myself. The Ka picks up on this and is the main proponent in Volo's lynching. Normally, this would put Ka in a very innocent looking position, however, due to recent circumstances my forefathers have been in, it could be a staged plan done by the wolves. Usually I don't like considering these whacky, sacrificial circumstances, but again the most recent experience makes me wary.

Now, I must ask myself is The Ka a person who would attempt to do this? For at least today, I'm willing to look at more suspicious looking things, than consider this possibility. But, I am more careful about so blindly trusting someone because of being influential in a wolf's demise. If anyone wonders why, just ask :cough: Nogrod :cough:.

So, taking a look at Volo's last posts, we can see what he said about each of the villagers:

Menelteramacil: I find him an innocent, he has told his mind, even if the first post was rather strange to me, but maybe I understood it wrong. He hasn't made any great inventions (or I'm too blind to see them) but I agree with him about Celuien and Folwren. I feel safe about him.

Menel is as we know, now innocent. This makes sense for a wolf as well. I think especially Volo, where I believe this is his first run as a wolf. He would want to try to attach himself to the more talkative-bunch and hopefully we get on his good side.

Glirdan: Not much reason in his vote, but I too find Durelin's actions strange. I won't be voting him now.

I don't know how much I can make here. He finds Glirdan and Durin's actions strange. It's possible that either one is a wolf and he he neither wanted attract a lot of suspicion towards one of them, nor did he want to defend one of them. So, it's kind of that 'I'll watch these two,' they're acting strange, but I won't vote for them.

Macalaure: I don't see the point you are making against him. Ok, he did agree really openly, but still... I find him rather innocent.

Mac was another one who gathered some suspicion yesterday (mostly by me it seems). Mac your defense at the end yesterday eased some of my doubts, but I'm still cautious. Something about you didn't seem right, maybe it was because you weren't exactly in that situation of Day 1 before, maybe not. Also, this looks like Volo is trying to deflect suspicion away from you. But as far as what took place at the end yesterday, you eased a little of my doubt.

Diamond18: I don't see much great sence in her talk, (just like I don't in my own) but she hasn't been overlyanything. Maybe she just has a slow start (like I want to think of myself).

This is another one hard to figure out. Probably because it's dealing with Diamond, of all the ancestors and history I have had with people, Diamond is probably just about as confusing to me as Gil-galad is. I've never been able to pin down such an eccentric character like Di, which makes her dangerous.

THE Ka: Here is one more person that hasn't contributed much. I find her vote rather strange (well sure, she's voting for me...), yes I was in a mood when I wanted to say something not saying anything bright. I don't find her too wolfish either.

It is true that The Ka did not participate much yesterday. But I would disagree with what Volo said here. Though she didn't talk a lot, she was one of the most helpful people yesterday in spotting Volo. So again, for today at least, Ka seems innocent.

Thinlomien: She has been active and found a weakness in Folwren that now I see quite clearly. I think of her as innocent.

Perhaps this is a wolf defense of another wolf? Trying to push for the lynching of Folwren? Though, it seemed a lot of people yesterday (myself included) found Thinlo's points reasonable. I know Thinlo won't be around a lot today, so I'm going to withhold my final judgement on her until I hear what she has to say.

Celuien: Now here is a strange one. She hasn't said anything good today, or then I'm too blind to see. She might be a wolf but today we can't vote her out really can we?

Suspects Celuien, she did attract a little suspicion yesterday. I'm not sure what to think of her today so far, she's going a long with the general feeling that Folwren is innocent. She was also one of Menel's suspects yesterday, but Menel was more convinced by Folwren's guilt. Perhaps she weas trying to get rid of Menel before he started getting suspicion against her?

Eonwe: I'm finding her random accusations strange. She has said many things, but I see reason in only few of then. Again, I think I might have voted her if there had been more chance of lynching her.

Volo said he would have voted for Eonwe had if more people would have thought the same. Volo was most concerned with saving his skin yesterday, so he couldn't vote for Eonwe. I'll get more to this later.

Nogrod: I think he is innocent or he really changed his strategy from the last game.

Thinks Nogrod's innocent. I was thinking the same, but so far Nogrod has been unusually quiet today. Maybe it's for RL reasons, but I would have expected Nogrod to have said something by now.

Durelin: Strange vote, nothing more really. I can't see as innocent or wolf now.

Unsure about Durelin, this is similar to what Volo said about Glirdan.

Folwren: Now here is the strange one, hasn't really said much except for own defence. I'll vote her...

Volo most likely went with Folwren because she was one of the more suspicious ones yesterday and was trying to save his own skin.

Rune: RL problems, hasn't said much, but doesn't seem wolfish...

Say RL has contributed to Rune's minor activity yesterday (which I agree). And puts Rune off of innocent.

Now I think the thing to figure out is would Volo be the type to put his partners as innocent, unsure about, or suspicious groups. With this being Volo's first wolf experience, he just doesn't seem like somebody who would like to bluff or trick, seems more conservative and consistant. So, I would think most likely he would put his partners as innocent, or unsure (more likely put them at unsure), and sort of seperate one partner from the other, like a usual wolf.

So,

Who Volo named as innocent:

Menel
Mac
The Ka
Thinlo
Nogrod
Rune

Who Volo was unsure about:

Glirdan
Diamond
Durelin

Who Volo thought was suspicious:

Folwren
Eonwe
Celuien

Taking all this mumbo into account. It's most likely there's at least one wolf amongst Volo's wide innocent list. The one I think seems to be the most wolfish in that group is Thinlo, for reasons stated earlier today. Possibly Mac, I want to see more of the Mac that I'm used to (which is the Mac that I saw at the end of the day yesterday).

I also am inclined to believe there is a wolf in that 'unsure category.' The most probable, to me, seems to be Glirdan, again for reasons stated earlier. He's backed down a little bit from Folwren, but still finds her 'uneasy.' That's a safe move for a wolf who's attack has seemed to fail and doesn't want to do a complete flip-flop.

There might be a wolf in that 'suspicious' category, I'm not going to remove that possibility. Of those, most suspicious looking perhaps is Celuien. As I said Menel suspected her yesterday, so wanted to get rid of him quickly. But for today, I don't know how Volo would act like as a wolf. He doesn't seem like the type that would be suspicious of a partner. So, that means most likely those three will not get my vote today, though of those three I'm most suspicious of Celuien.

Edit: X-posted with everyone up to Mac's last post.

[Volo]

After a lot of paperwork Volo came back to the hall where all the action was happening. He noticed two things that seemed wrong or at least he wasn't used to them: First he was described "'Grandfather' of European heavy metal" I wish!, this Sleepy guy must have mixed up the termes "heavy metal" with "power metal", Volo could easily be the grandson of heavy metal... The second wasn't even funny, people were going against him just because he was being friendly... "I understand that you are worried, but I find really little reason in voting somebody who just wanted to have a little chat..."

Volo took his guitar out and started playing something cheerful from his head to warm people up. He soon realized that this was useless and took out a piece of paper instead.

#5 Folwren just checking in.
#6 Menel telling us to think of something not completely random. Advising to think of a plan. This makes sence, but I don't feel like we should make a plan too openly, what does a plan even mean here?
#7 Boro said something like that too about #6
#8 Volo messing around
#9 Eonwe talking something random
#10 Volo told Eonwe not to be random, Boro that he speaks true and something without real meaning to Menel.
#11 Folwren speaks true about post #7, we have to discuss something, but not make too much of a "plan"...
#12 Menel agreeing with Folwren. At this I feel like there has been a misunderstanding, at least I didn't understand Boro's post like asking for complete silence... I feel that Folwren twisted Boro's words.
#13 Glirdan playing stupid.
#14 Celuien against randomness.
#15 Durelin says something random and a random vote on THE Ka
#16 Menel telling the seer to check the talkative people, makes sence, talkative wolves are dangerous, or so I have read. Also tells about the wolves that try to blend in and about the ones that aren't talkative. Silent wolves are rather dull, but I doubt that they can do much in the end... But with this post I agree.
#17 Boro talks about the importance of trust. Yes, I think it is needed, but it can also be misleading.
#18 Rune just telling that he is
#19 THE Ka talking nonsence, a lot of nonsence can be a good cover for a wolf...
#20 Nogrod telling that silence isn't good (I agree). Tells us to observe the people for changing their mind to stay with the mass. Agrees with Menel about seer checking the talkative.
#21 Celuien talks about the importance of strategy, but tells not to say everything. I agree, but this is post already "staying with the mass" as I see it...
#22 Rune cleared this at last, I mean the talk about Boro saying to be silent.
#23 Folwren has made good points. Dislikes random votes, but says that wolves wouldn't do that. I think I'll trust her for now.
#24 Celuien repeats the same thing about talking about strategy, but not too openly...
#25 Eonwe tells that people don't sometimes have the guts for suspicions. Also tells that the silent/loud wolf theory isn't to be trusted... I think that the silent wolf isn't so dangerous. I would trust more a change in playing style as the mark of the wolf.
#26 Glirdan sends a vote for Durelin because of the random vote for THE Ka. I agree that those randomers have no right to be here, but RL stuff might be the reason in such cases on day1...
#27 Rune goes off and says about getting interested about post 26.
#28 Boro talks a lot. Agrees with post #22. Tells about plans being bad and says that an agressive attack will more surely get us rid of the wolves. Agrees with #25, I personally don't. Doesn't like randomness, somewhat suspects Durelin and Glirdan. Trusts Menel, Eonwe, Folwren and Rune. I tend to agree on those four.
#26 THE Ka changes her vote for Volo, without reason I can understand, goes away.
#27 Dia tells us what we have been saying, the ordinary day1 talk without much reason. Doesn't suspect Durelin and Glirdan badly. Waits.
#28 Mac agrees with Dia.
#29 Lommy somewhat suspects Folwren for being overdefencive, but won't wote her because she contributes, good reason for day one. Doesn't suspect Durelin and Glirdan because they are like that, she knows better than I about that, haven't met either of them earlier in a trap like this.
#30 Nogrod smells a rat in Glirdans vote. Tells that wolves usually make more mistakes than innocents. I think that this is true, but Nogrod himself didn't make many mistakes too easily spotted in the last battle for justice.
#31 Celuien tells that Glirdan and Durelin are just being themselves.
#32 Menel suspects Celuien and I tend to agree, she has been talking rather strangly. Leaves for few hours.
#33 Lommy votes Folwren because of overdefencive behavior. Says that Nogrod was too agressive with his accusation for Glirdan. Jokes about Dia. Somewhat trusts Eonwe and Menel.
#34 Boro says about a change in Mac's behavior. Mac has only one post so I won't say much about this...
#35 Rune votes Mac and agrees with Dia.
#36 Nogrod somewhat trusts Menel and Boro, both have made good ponts. The same seems to go for Rune, Folwren and Celuien. Wants to hear more from Mac, Dia and Lommy. Suspects Volo for being too nice. Can't say anything about THE Ka. Notices a change in Eonwes behavior. Glirdan and Durelin seem strange but themselves.
#37 Celuien votes Volo and leaves.
#38 Volo says what people have said and goes off somewhere (to koiralenkki).

I might not be able to vote, hope that I can. (Don't change the day until I wote, I might be just a bit late.)

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by Lommy

(My opinion of Eonwe might not be very objective though since I'm so glad to see him return to a less-nonsensical playing style...

Don't make me change back to my Donkey Avatar, Lommy!

Just got on this morning, so I'll start back and read everything and try and vote...

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, I've looked over Folwren's posts so far, prompted by suspicions people had mentioned.

Folwren does seem unusually defensive in her early posts, and flip-flopped somewhat on the issue of discussing strategy. It's quite likely she's a wolf trying to cover her tracks.

My vote will probably be either for Folwren or Celuien toDay, and I'm inclined to suspect Folwren more. I'll be back around 11:30 to vote. Don't eat all my jelly doughnuts, please.

[Eonwe]

Well, Menel, I'd have to say I think Folwren's arguments are pretty consistent. All she's doing is supporting both sides of an unanswerable arguemnt....if you see what I mean. As for her first post, I'm willing to take it at face value....

One other thing. I'm curious how Sleepy will work this.

Originally Posted by Sleepy

No retracable votes.

Originally Posted by Durelin

++THE Ka

Originally Posted by Durelin

++Volo

[edit] Cross posted with Folwren. I am indeed, a he. Haven't we been over this before? (just kidding!)

[edit#2] erm...what just happened there. sry for the brain fart, Durelin...??? *confused*

[Folwren]

[edit] Cross posted with Folwren. I am indeed, a he. Haven't we been over this before? (just kidding!)

Lol, yes, I think we have been over itb efore. I'm so sorry.

-- Foley

[Boromir88]

My vote will have to come a little earlier than I anticipated, as this day has been moved back and hour...but no harm done ). Here's what we have so far.

Menel seems fine. It's Day 1, there's no sense in concocting some sort of twisted wierd possibility of a werewolf plot on Day 1 when we have no other information.

Same goes for Nogrod. It's possible one of these two 'talkers' is a wolf, but I don't see a reason to think them wolves as of yet.

I was expecting more of Rune today, as he said he would, but didn't see it. I fully understand though, that unexpected things come up, we all get busy dealing with our fan-mail and what not...I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt today.

I like Ka's reasoning against Volo. It speaks towards her innocence. As far as it being Day 1, it's really one of the most sensible arguments against someone I have seen.

Thinlomien has pointed out some good things about Folwren. Stuff that I didn't realize before. So, like Ka, speaks towards her innocence, for today.

Eonwe brings up a good point about 'evidence.' What evidence is there, besides a Seer dream and our own opinions that often times can be narrow-minded.

Mathematically speaking, it's likely that one of the people listed above is a wolf. However, as far as today is concerned, there's no reason to waste my vote on the people I don't have a reason to think to suspect. But, I do reserve the right to change thpse opinions in the future.

Durelin, Celuien, Diamond and Volo I'm unsure about.

It's always hard to get a read off of Diamond, which makes her dangerous as a wolf. Right now I find people to be more suspicious so, I most likely won't vote for Diamond today.

I'm going to keep an eye on Volo. I'm wary of voting for him today, because from what I remember is he was a rather shady and suspicious player on Day 1 in past villages, but he turned out to be one of the greatest assets the village had.

For Durelin, I'm not going to waste my vote on someone because they randomly voted on Day 1 (ehem Glirdan) . I have no reason to feel that she's innocent like the people at the beginning of my spiel.

Same thing goes for Celuien. I'll be watching her in the days to come, but right now am more worried about other singers.

Which leaves, Glirdan, Mac, and Folwren.

Perhaps, I spoke a little too hasty about Folwren, before. I agree with what Thinlomien has pointed out (and I had missed previously), Folwren seems a little too protective.

Mac, for the reasons I mentioned in my last post. Also, the behavior of 'discussing strategy is good, but it doesn't help us because no one will ever agree.' That just seems terribly awkward to me, saying it's good to do, but we won't agree, so it won't lead us anywhere.

I don't have good records on Glirdan's ancestors, as my family has had very little experience with him. Maybe he's just being Glirdan, but I'm unaware of that information. And still find his contradiction over 'random voting' to be suspicious.

One of these three will most likely get my vote which will be coming soon.

Edit: X-posted with a few people.

[Folwren]

Sorry, no time. Pop sent a fax RIGHT at voting time.

++Volo

To save my own skin.

[Thinlómien]

Celuien analysis

Day 1
#14 Just checks in. Says she's against random votes too. §§ Pretty much all reasonable people are.
#21 Says that avoiding strategic discussion hurts the village more than the wolves and all the village has to go on is strategy and open debate. Says we need to have to win as a village. Says that village having a tactic or not having one is same in that sense that the wolves can use both against us. §§ Speaks sense. I agree with her. Does not seem wolvish.
#24 States the common opinion(/misunderstanding?): "I'd thought Menel suggested laying out how to find wolves, and Boro had said that doing that would let the wolves use that info against us." Says the same as I comment below: discussion surely benefits the village more than the wolves, unless it goes to extreme. Says she does not know a red flag before she sees it. §§ Again, she speaks sense and thinks the same way as I do.
#34 Agrees with me that Durelin and Glirdan are just being themselves and says she's a part of the majority that don't have any specail suspects. §§ She seems to think exactly along the same lines as I do.
#40 Votes Volo. Says she can't get a read on the posts and it makes her uncomfortable. §§ She means Volo's posts? They were somewhat difficult to grasp at. What is notable here, is that she cast the second vote for Volo. Second vote is often the important one. Though there was much suspicion of other people (Foley, Glirdy) around, I'm not sure if a fellow wolf would risk this.

Boromir analysis

Day 1
#7 Presents his (in)famous comment on discussing tactics: says that if the village speaks of the tactics openly it is easier to hide for the wolves as they know how we expect them to act. Agrees that random-votes are bad. §§ I don't get his point; the discussion surely benefits the village more than the wolves, unless it goes to extreme, eg. "ten rules how to spot a wolf". And what do you on Day1 if not discuss tactics? In-character bantering? On random votes, see what I said about Celuien's first post.
#17 Says: " . . there must be some sort of unity amongst us . . . but our best chance of winning comes down trust in individuals (and that's where the unity comes in). Do I want to trust you? Do you want to trust me? As the days go on we will all be able to establish our own cases against who we think are the wolves and the people we feel safe about." Explains his earlier words as: ". . . I don't think it's a good idea to talk about what we will be looking for the wolves to do, because that makes it far too easier for wolves to hide in and look innocent. If I spot something that looks wolvish, I go right after and jump on it. I don't like to discuss my own personal strategy as far as what I'm looking for the wolves to do, because that makes it easier for the wolves to get on my 'innocent' side, as they will know my mind and what I'm looking for." Half jokingly points out Glirdan's too dramatic reaction on Sleepy's death. §§ I'm not sure if I agree with his earlier theory or if it makes sense, but his explanation of his opinions makes sense. However, he seems to be taking back his words a bit. He might be only clearing his words, but he might also be adding bits in to sound more reasonable.
#28 Compares ww to poker. (= You don't want the opponent to know your cards.) Agrees with Folwren about Durelin. Foley said: "Why the crazy and random vote the THE Ka, Durelin? I really dislike random votes like that, but it makes me think that. . . that a wolf wouldn't do it. I don't know why I think it." Boromir says he dislikes random voting, but does not understand why do people always think that the first random voter of the day is a wolf. Is suspicious of Glirdan because he votes Durelin because of randomness and in the next sentence states his own vote as quite random. Says that Menel, Eonwe, Folwren and Rune all seem sensible so far. §§ Poker analogy makes sense, but I see a slight contradiction in the Foley-Durelin case. Flip-flopping perhaps? First he says he agrees with Folwren (who was suspecting Durelin) and then he questions the logic of accusing the first random voter. Thus, he questions his own logic (if I understood him right) and ain any case he questions the logic of the person he agreed with in the previous sentence.
#37 Suspects Mac because he's acting un-macalaureishly. (Says he does not get the same solid, innocent feeling of Mac as he usually does.) §§ As pointed out by some people before, I find this quite hasty. Mac had just posted one post that implied (at least to me) that he's to be back.
#47 Quick summary on people. Menel, Nogrod = seem innocent, contribute, Rune = gives him the benefit of doubt, says he would expect more posting from him, Ka = agrees with her reasoning, says she's sensible, Thinlomien = good points about Foley, seems innocent for now, Eonwe = good points about evidence. At this phase, adds that mathematically it's very possible, that one of the people listed above is wolf. Summary continues: Diamond = difficult to read and thus dangerous, Volo = shady, could be a great asset, Durelin, Celuien = more worried of other people than them, Folwren = a bit too protective, Mac = suspects for previously mentioned reasons and because of "the behavior of 'discussing strategy is good, but it doesn't help us because no one will ever agree.'", Glirdan = suspicious. §§ I've never understood the point of saying who one does not suspect and then counting the mathematical possibility of a wolf on the list. Surely the list is tried to make thus that it contains no wolves so if the analyser is even a bit clever, the lsit should have less wolves than mathematically would seem probable. (I'm not sure if I'm making sense at all, but my main point is that mathematics are just confusing things in this kind of place.) Besides, his maths is little shady. He gives the first half six persons and one wolf, the sencond seven persons and two wolves, from six and seven it's almost as possible that the gorup of six has two wolves as that it's the group of seven that have two wolves, if one thinks only mathematically. I kind of missed Mac's "the behavior of 'discussing strategy is good, but it doesn't help us because no one will ever agree.'".
#54 Leaves and votes Mac with gut.

Day 1 conclusions
Celuien - If A is innocent and does thing x and B does thing x too, can we assume B's innocence? Not maybe, though it seems probable. Can we by that assume that B's guilty? No way. I'm leaning to Celuien's innocence and seriously consider quitting analysing her since she seems to think exactly the same way as I do. Either she's imitating an innocent logic very well or she's really innocent.
Boromir - Why, o why, did I ever promise myself to analyse him? He speaks so much that it will take a year. He's quite, though not overtly, suspicious and my main suspect. (Of course, my opinion might change, this was only Day1 analysis.)

I'm off to have a pause and then to continue maybe...

EDIT: I seem to be back to my old habit of flooding...