Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Glirdan]

Okay, going over Folwern's posts I found things that struck me as....well, odd.

A very, very shocking beginning. Being beheaded is not a very good thing. I'm rather shocked that. . .that would have happened. . .so soon. You'd think the villains would wait a few deaths later to get gruesome.

So what, you expected a murder? Is it because you're one of them planning it and your guilty conscious is trying to get out?

And don't try to derive any strange and twisted meaning out of this first post be cause there isn't any.

And why would you go and say that? Is it because there was something strange and twisted in the post?? Hmmmm....

I'm going to quote Boromir not because I'm accusing him or anything, but to make things more conveniently looked up.

This is honestly the wierdest thing you have said yet. Why would you say that? It's fine to quote people. Look at me! I'm doing it right now!! This scentence really strikes me as suspicious. It's like you're hiding something again and your concious(sp? [Ihonestly think I'm spelling that wrong]) is fighting to break out.

Look, Lommy - I said not to try to take any twisted meaning out of my words. Didn't I say that? It was an awkward business making the first post. I couldn't tell what people would think. It was an ice breaking post and I had absolutely nothing to say.

And again, why would you say "I said not to try to take any twisted meaning out of my words." If anything, that makes you look more suspicous.

Over-defensive? Well, yes, maybe so. I've been accused of that many, many times before. But see here, being an innocent, I have no guilty conscience, therefore I don't feel guilty about arguing my way out of a tight spot (or an imaginary tight spot) because I don't have to lie about it. Also, being an innocent, I'm scared to death that someone, as you have done, will point their finger at me, take their attention off the real wolves, and kill a friend. That's why I'm attomatically defensive.

I bolded the part I really want to talk about here. The problem with that is that we don't know who the Wolves are. We don't know if we can trust you. How do we know that you're not a Wolf?

Nogrod, please, please, just this round, give me the benefit of the doubt. I am not guilty. We're drawing so near to the end that one more vote for me may be the end!

This sounds like a plea of a Wolf trying to stay alive and attack more innocents. I really don't like it. If you're as innocent as you say you are Folwren, why would you have cared about being lynched? I personally would feel like a sacrifice, a way to get closer to finding the Wolves. This really sounds like a Wolf plea to me.

Which brings me all the way back to her throwaway vote.

Hmmm, I'll be around if you need me.

[THE Ka]

Lucky guess, Morrissey...

Moz sings, "... We hate it when our friends become successful"

Anyways...

That coffin is just... ugh, no one should go out in that style, especially in nice shoes. Obviously whoever did this has no sense of style, for one, but onto the other facts.

Originally Posted by Rune

2. they could have saved their fellow wolf and maybe even make it look inoccent.

From personal past experience as playing a werewolf in my last game, there is usually one werewolf who has to take a dive for the sake of the others... Thus the 'fenris wolves'. It is also a tactic that is somewhat good at keeping the rest of the players still with without much a clue as to any connections, that is, if their fellow wolves don't blow the whole thing by being too defensive, or otherwise too friendly.

Speaking of that, it would be nice to check up on how everyone reacted to Volo being voted for.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Also, being an innocent, I'm scared to death that someone, as you have done, will point their finger at me, take their attention off the real wolves, and kill a friend. That's why I'm attomatically defensive.

Being defensive is a tricky ordeal. Either, it is a wolf who's a bit shaky at how things are going and trying to pull heart strings, or an innocent who is in a bit of a corner and doing the same. Hmmm, I would keep an eye on this.

Originally Posted by Folwren

To save my own skin.

I understand RL issues. Though, as an innocent, I wouldn't say that if I was caught in a corner. It doesn't seem very logical for a wolf to say that either, really. Sounds like a flustered reply, but a very suspicious one at that.


I'm beginning to see that maybe our wolves are not working together so well, but that depends on whether all of this flustering is not a cover up for it. Then again, wolves have the advantage at knowing whom they are in good arms with against others and how (hopefully) to act, while innocents are for themselves unless proven otherwise, which is rare. Either our wolves were scrambling yesterday, and had somewhat of a disarray, or all of this flustering is a neat diversion for confusion.

Whatever comes, I think I will have to go back and take more of a look at all of this when I can. Folwren's actions do not seem the best making for a wolf, or innocent, but mostly that of a wolf. Others in question, do not seem that easy to get by.

[Macalaure]

Sorry for being so short today. We should be looking at the things Volo said and did yesterday. I hope I will later find the time to.

For now:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Mac seems the least right to me right now. His late vote for Volo would be excellent cover, but he doesn't even produce any reason at all!

And then there's this:

Quote:
You could've waited that few more minutes, Nogrod...


Hmm. A little...protective...? (Not the best word.) But perhaps too obvious.

First, I was the one who suggested that the remaining people voted Volo. Just because I happen to be the second of the actual voters doesn't make it a cover.

Second, yes, my reasons (given a few posts before what you quote) are weak, very weak in fact. The final reason was not so much against Volo, but more for the others.

Third, I don't know what you mean by 'protective'. As I said, I was all but convinced of Volo's guilt and so I hoped that his last post would have anything in it that would convince me either way. Then Nogrod decided not to wait (said he didn't see Volo's 'I'm going to post soon'), and I thought that was a pity...

I expect that, by the time I come back much later, somebody has suspected me for being too defensive.

[Eonwe]

Glirdan, I've gotta say, I think more highly of your werewolf skills than you're post (#85) would give you credit for. If you wanna go over some posting, make it a post were Folwren made some arguments, not just a ice-breaker post. You might as well pick up on my wamybar post and say "Well, the only one he didn't offer to check was himself! Ha, we've found our wolf, baby!"

I'm inclined to suspect Glirdan right now, but his behavior is so far out on a limb in my opinion, that I'm not sure if I should.

I'll read somemore and post some more later.

[Durelin]

All but convinced of his guilt, Mac? I don't know, perhaps you use such a prase more lightly than I do...

This is all you had to say about Volo:

Originally Posted by Mac

The only one about which I am suspicious to a ridiculously small degree is Volo, because his summary doesn't sit well with me.

Originally Posted by Mac

This leaves me again with Volo, whom I could vote for though with a bad conscience and a bad feeling.

Mostly your posts are a lot of "I don't want to vote for people," which is perfectly understandable (I feel that way all the time!)...but what's not is you coming back the next day, when you must defend yourself, and saying 'I was all but convinced of Volo's guilt.'

I'm not condemning you yet, don't worry. (And I haven't forgotten about everyone else yet, either.) But I find that disturbing.

[Folwren]

Thank you, all of you who put in a good word for me.

I am inclined to think Mac is not a wolf. He didn't vote for me when he could have. At that time, it appeared that I had more doubtful stuff piling up against me than Volo did. . .I mean with what Lommy said. But Mac went with his gut feeling, it seemed. If he had been a wolf, he could have voted for me and assumed that Volo would have voted for me, too. . .and it may have turned into a double lynching if I hadn't gotten there in time. He wasn't defending Volo when he said 'You might have waited a few more minutes', he was just dreading Volo turning out to be an innocent.

I. . .I don't know about Glirdan. I was coming near disliking him when he attacked me as he did, so I'm not quite trusting myself to commenting on him yet.

Someone's mentioned Durelin being suspectable? She's spoken up for me, saying a wolf wouldn't cause such a scene. . .perhaps she's not a wolf? If she were, she'd probably harp on my defending myself so much and being so desperate to live would mean I was a wolf. Inclined to not think her a wolf. Also, she made a very random, very attention drawing first post and vote yesterday.

Boromir mentioned the three people who voted for me:

Lommy, Menel, and Volo. Menel was an innocent, he was killed. Volo was a wolf, he was lynched. Lommy. . .we have no idea what she is.

Now, I have to say, last night I was thinking, if Lommy were killed, having cast doubt on me, I would most certainly be suspected. I almost expected her to be killed, providing she's not a wolf. She wasn't killed, and Menel was - who also voted for me. Are they trying to frame me? Can Lommy and Glirdan both be wolves? Or is one only playing into the other's hand? Or am I wrong on both counts? Of course, it's possible.

However, consider. . .one of us is a Seer and one of us knows the identity of two people.

No more time.

-- Folwren

[Celuien]

Might I point out, Boro, that Volo also named you as 'talking sense'? I presume that means he was listing you as innocent. Meaning that you might also be the wolf hidden in his broad innocent list.

I'd be interested in hearing more about why you find me suspicious. Is there anything other than that Volo suspected me and that Menel also found me suspicious?

Personally, I'd be cautious about using anything from Volo's last post. His fate was pretty well sealed at that time, and what he said probably aimed more to causing confusion or frantically trying to save himself than anything else. At any rate, a known wolf's village words are inherently untrustworthy.

As for Menel, the last thing I would do if I were a wolf accused by him would be to kill him at night. Too obvious, and I'm not that bold.

Originally Posted by Boro, re Glirdy

That's a safe move for a wolf who's attack has seemed to fail and doesn't want to do a complete flip-flop.

And also the expected move of an innocent who made a case and had it answered (partially) to his satisfaction. This process is all about making a case to find a wolf, waiting for an answer, and reevaluating. Seems like that's exactly what he did, so it doesn't raise a red flag for me. I find that I trust Glirdan. *shrugs*

[Nogrod]

Okay, just a few points at first (I have a really bad Day today as I must be away less than 12 hours from now and need to have my night's sleep during the time).

I'm ready to take Folwren as an innocent for now. I came to that conclusion over the last hour of yesterDay as I went through her posting and am not ready to change it, at least with what Glirdy has brought against her.

Although I must say that I agree that my - admittedly thin - lorebook of Folwren's family that she isn't quite acting like her family-members have acted before.



But then there is something a bit bit strange with Macalaure. I'm sorry to say that as our families have had a history of being even-minded in many games before.

Why Mac you say:

First, I was the one who suggested that the remaining people voted Volo. Just because I happen to be the second of the actual voters doesn't make it a cover.

When it most obviously is not true? Let's look at the posts of the end of the Day1.

Originally Posted by Nogrod #60

Volo I'm a bit aware of, as his "defence" of himself seemed like trying to be useful without actually doing anything (making the scanty summary of the posts so far) and that has been considered quite wolvish, with a reason I daresay. But then again, he acted pretty "shady and suspicious" as Boro named it, already in his first game before this.

Originally Posted by Mac #61

The only one about which I am suspicious to a ridiculously small degree is Volo, because his summary doesn't sit well with me.

Originally Posted by Nogrod #66

Maybe we should reconsider the "middle-men" as I suggested earlier, namely Rune and Celuien (I'm out with voting for Folwren now). They have trailed the discussion of Menel and Boro nicely. A good shady place for a wolf to pass behind the notice of everyone else?

Or then Volo? 15 minutes...

Originally Posted by Nogrod #67

Volo's last post about himself:
Quote:
#38 Volo says what people have said and goes off somewhere (to koiralenkki).

THat last one there, the "koiralenkki" means a walk with the dog (or jogging with the dog). Curious it would take him more than two and half hours as not to make it to the end?

I might vote Volo on this... Avoiding the discussion?

Originally Posted by Mac #69

Out of the ones who have two votes, I don't like to vote for me and I don't like to vote for Folwren. This leaves me again with Volo, whom I could vote for though with a bad conscience and a bad feeling.

Originally Posted by Nogrod #70

Okay, I'll do it.

If you are an innocent extreme-sports man, I apologise, but 2½ hours with the dog outside when the heat is on in the WW-game just doesn't sound right. It sounds like avoiding the chance of making mistakes and that's something a wolf might wish to do...

++ Volo

Originally Posted by Mac #71

You could've waited that few more minutes, Nogrod...

Originally Posted by Mac #73

OK, I'm sorry. The deadline's here and I will vote now.

++Volo

If you really are a wolf then this is going to be pure luck...

edit: ... but also fun!
editedit: I mean last minute tumult, not voting Volo.

From this it is hard to figure out a coinstellation where Macalaure was the leading lyncher of Volo... So why do you want to say that you were? A wolf would have a reason for that, but why you. I know you are a capable and intelligent player, so what is the point? I must say that your defence of yourself has lighted lots of alarm-bells in my mind.

EDIT: X-ed with Durelin and agree with her a lot...

[Boromir88]

Well I went through Volo's posts, so perhaps this may help a little bit.

Volo's first two posts, there really isn't much to go from. He's in character, and he agrees with Menel and myself. The Ka picks up on this and is the main proponent in Volo's lynching. Normally, this would put Ka in a very innocent looking position, however, due to recent circumstances my forefathers have been in, it could be a staged plan done by the wolves. Usually I don't like considering these whacky, sacrificial circumstances, but again the most recent experience makes me wary.

Now, I must ask myself is The Ka a person who would attempt to do this? For at least today, I'm willing to look at more suspicious looking things, than consider this possibility. But, I am more careful about so blindly trusting someone because of being influential in a wolf's demise. If anyone wonders why, just ask :cough: Nogrod :cough:.

So, taking a look at Volo's last posts, we can see what he said about each of the villagers:

Menelteramacil: I find him an innocent, he has told his mind, even if the first post was rather strange to me, but maybe I understood it wrong. He hasn't made any great inventions (or I'm too blind to see them) but I agree with him about Celuien and Folwren. I feel safe about him.

Menel is as we know, now innocent. This makes sense for a wolf as well. I think especially Volo, where I believe this is his first run as a wolf. He would want to try to attach himself to the more talkative-bunch and hopefully we get on his good side.

Glirdan: Not much reason in his vote, but I too find Durelin's actions strange. I won't be voting him now.

I don't know how much I can make here. He finds Glirdan and Durin's actions strange. It's possible that either one is a wolf and he he neither wanted attract a lot of suspicion towards one of them, nor did he want to defend one of them. So, it's kind of that 'I'll watch these two,' they're acting strange, but I won't vote for them.

Macalaure: I don't see the point you are making against him. Ok, he did agree really openly, but still... I find him rather innocent.

Mac was another one who gathered some suspicion yesterday (mostly by me it seems). Mac your defense at the end yesterday eased some of my doubts, but I'm still cautious. Something about you didn't seem right, maybe it was because you weren't exactly in that situation of Day 1 before, maybe not. Also, this looks like Volo is trying to deflect suspicion away from you. But as far as what took place at the end yesterday, you eased a little of my doubt.

Diamond18: I don't see much great sence in her talk, (just like I don't in my own) but she hasn't been overlyanything. Maybe she just has a slow start (like I want to think of myself).

This is another one hard to figure out. Probably because it's dealing with Diamond, of all the ancestors and history I have had with people, Diamond is probably just about as confusing to me as Gil-galad is. I've never been able to pin down such an eccentric character like Di, which makes her dangerous.

THE Ka: Here is one more person that hasn't contributed much. I find her vote rather strange (well sure, she's voting for me...), yes I was in a mood when I wanted to say something not saying anything bright. I don't find her too wolfish either.

It is true that The Ka did not participate much yesterday. But I would disagree with what Volo said here. Though she didn't talk a lot, she was one of the most helpful people yesterday in spotting Volo. So again, for today at least, Ka seems innocent.

Thinlomien: She has been active and found a weakness in Folwren that now I see quite clearly. I think of her as innocent.

Perhaps this is a wolf defense of another wolf? Trying to push for the lynching of Folwren? Though, it seemed a lot of people yesterday (myself included) found Thinlo's points reasonable. I know Thinlo won't be around a lot today, so I'm going to withhold my final judgement on her until I hear what she has to say.

Celuien: Now here is a strange one. She hasn't said anything good today, or then I'm too blind to see. She might be a wolf but today we can't vote her out really can we?

Suspects Celuien, she did attract a little suspicion yesterday. I'm not sure what to think of her today so far, she's going a long with the general feeling that Folwren is innocent. She was also one of Menel's suspects yesterday, but Menel was more convinced by Folwren's guilt. Perhaps she weas trying to get rid of Menel before he started getting suspicion against her?

Eonwe: I'm finding her random accusations strange. She has said many things, but I see reason in only few of then. Again, I think I might have voted her if there had been more chance of lynching her.

Volo said he would have voted for Eonwe had if more people would have thought the same. Volo was most concerned with saving his skin yesterday, so he couldn't vote for Eonwe. I'll get more to this later.

Nogrod: I think he is innocent or he really changed his strategy from the last game.

Thinks Nogrod's innocent. I was thinking the same, but so far Nogrod has been unusually quiet today. Maybe it's for RL reasons, but I would have expected Nogrod to have said something by now.

Durelin: Strange vote, nothing more really. I can't see as innocent or wolf now.

Unsure about Durelin, this is similar to what Volo said about Glirdan.

Folwren: Now here is the strange one, hasn't really said much except for own defence. I'll vote her...

Volo most likely went with Folwren because she was one of the more suspicious ones yesterday and was trying to save his own skin.

Rune: RL problems, hasn't said much, but doesn't seem wolfish...

Say RL has contributed to Rune's minor activity yesterday (which I agree). And puts Rune off of innocent.

Now I think the thing to figure out is would Volo be the type to put his partners as innocent, unsure about, or suspicious groups. With this being Volo's first wolf experience, he just doesn't seem like somebody who would like to bluff or trick, seems more conservative and consistant. So, I would think most likely he would put his partners as innocent, or unsure (more likely put them at unsure), and sort of seperate one partner from the other, like a usual wolf.

So,

Who Volo named as innocent:

Menel
Mac
The Ka
Thinlo
Nogrod
Rune

Who Volo was unsure about:

Glirdan
Diamond
Durelin

Who Volo thought was suspicious:

Folwren
Eonwe
Celuien

Taking all this mumbo into account. It's most likely there's at least one wolf amongst Volo's wide innocent list. The one I think seems to be the most wolfish in that group is Thinlo, for reasons stated earlier today. Possibly Mac, I want to see more of the Mac that I'm used to (which is the Mac that I saw at the end of the day yesterday).

I also am inclined to believe there is a wolf in that 'unsure category.' The most probable, to me, seems to be Glirdan, again for reasons stated earlier. He's backed down a little bit from Folwren, but still finds her 'uneasy.' That's a safe move for a wolf who's attack has seemed to fail and doesn't want to do a complete flip-flop.

There might be a wolf in that 'suspicious' category, I'm not going to remove that possibility. Of those, most suspicious looking perhaps is Celuien. As I said Menel suspected her yesterday, so wanted to get rid of him quickly. But for today, I don't know how Volo would act like as a wolf. He doesn't seem like the type that would be suspicious of a partner. So, that means most likely those three will not get my vote today, though of those three I'm most suspicious of Celuien.

Edit: X-posted with everyone up to Mac's last post.