Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Diamond18]

I’m going to go through all the posts (hopefully, if I can swing it in the time I have, curse the board) and give my impressions of each player, in the order they are listed in Sleepy’s posts.

Glirdan

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=13

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...9&postcount=26

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=80

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=85

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...8&postcount=94

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=105

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=107

Glirdan is worrisome to me. The first day I did not find his hasty vote particularly strange as I’m know what it’s like to have to vote early with little to go on. His opening post is very par for the course as far as character play goes… lots of shock and exclamation over the mod’s death is vintage Glirdy.

However with the dawn of day 2 he really starts striking me as off. He attacks Folwren, starting by using what was clearly throwaway commenting on Sleepy’s death, something which never sits well with me. When something is obviously meant as in character or as a chatty preamble I honestly don’t understand why anyone would use it as a serious condemnation. Unless you were really trying to cast suspicion or suspected the player of taunting. At any rate, the rest of his case against Folwren has some merit, but since I tend to feel Folwren is as blindingly innocent as… snow that’s really bright… I find the way he goes after her to be somewhat unsettling. Plus, he seems to shy away from the notion of voting for her but ends up doing so on encouragement from Nogrod not to let others direct him. Which is odd.

I could see myself voting for him, but the one thing that holds me up is that I’ve played with Glirdan before and have known him to behave somewhat oddly and yet be innocent. So I don’t like to fall for the “he’s oh so lynchable” pitfall and kill an innocent merely for playing style. I shall have to evaluate the other candidates.

Macalaure

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=31

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...9&postcount=46

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...4&postcount=52

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...8&postcount=61

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...2&postcount=63

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=69

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...9&postcount=71

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...1&postcount=73

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=96

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=113

I had reservations about Mac’s early Day 1 posting (see my previous posts). The timing of his vote for Volo seems to speak well, but his wording still gives me pause, as he seems to reiterate a lot that he didn’t suspect Volo all that much. This strikes me as trying to put emphasis on the luckiness of him spotting a wolf Day 1, lest we think he knew Volo’s identity and was intentionally sacrificing him.

Diamond18

Doesn’t post much, posts nonsense when she does show up. I’d keep an eye out for that bad seed if I were you.

THE Ka

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...7&postcount=19

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=29

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=93

Bit at a loss about Ka. She voted Volo for reasons I don’t quite understand, and since she turned out to be right could be seen as having good instincts or being in the know. Her vote was cast at a particularly safe time, being the first to vote for Volo, so this could well be wolf-on-wolf tactics. On Day 2 she has so far made some statements speculating on how the wolves are behaving, which kind of doesn’t give me much of an idea about anything.

Lommy

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...3&postcount=32

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...1&postcount=36

Well I don’t have much to go on. I really have nothing to observe on except that I dislike not having anything to observe on. She did seem to overestimate my posting, saying

Diamond didn't start with cuddly in-character bantering? I'm not sure what to make of this either, but it's nice to see her starting serious discussion this early.

I’m not sure who’s posts she was reading but it wasn’t mine. I mean, I did start in character, with links! And then said nothing of great consequence beside yawning over the Day 1ishness of the Day so far. So. Weird. Also, she called me cuddly. Like Snuggles the Fabric Softener Teddy Bear? Them’s fighting words.

Yeah, so basically, a whole lot of nothing. Shady….

Celuien

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...9&postcount=14

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...6&postcount=21

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...3&postcount=24

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=34

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...1&postcount=40

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...2&postcount=88

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...4&postcount=92

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=102

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=104

Celuien feels pretty innocent to me at this time. Her posts have all been calm and reasonable. Maybe she gets her serenity from knowing who are wolves and who are not, but at this time I don’t feel suspicious enough to start speculating on that. Nothing factual really supports it. She cast a vote for Volo at a time when putting him in the lead on a day notorious for spread out votes, so unless she was trying to fenris wolf him, I look favorably on her voting record.

Eonwe

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...69&postcount=9

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...7&postcount=25

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...2&postcount=42

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...7&postcount=45

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...7&postcount=49

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=53

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...9&postcount=56

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...6&postcount=97

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=110

Day 1 is pretty much par for the Eonwe course as far as I know. If I recall correctly, he usually gets lynched just by annoying people with his random voting. Day 2 he speaks less, but gives a pretty well reasoned vote for Glirdan (as these things go). Right now I haven’t really got a feel on him either way, but I don’t think I’ve ever been able to get a feel on him in the past, so this isn’t surprising.

Nogrod

Augh. The idea of going through all Noggie’s posts just killed me a little. But since he has been very talkative I’ve already formed a feel for him, and I don’t suspect him at this point. His vote for Volo speaks well, unless it’s a fenrising, but I’ll worry about that later if I should have reason to. For now, I’m not even considering voting Noggie so I’ll skip re-reading all his posts.

Durelin

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...2&postcount=15

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...6&postcount=81

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...2&postcount=91

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...8&postcount=98

Durelin I feel fairly comfortable with at this time. Not sure why, as she hasn’t posted very much and her Day 1 post was kind of flaky. But I’ve seen Durelin play before as an innocent (heck, as a gifted) and this isn’t unusual and doesn’t mean she isn’t being helpful. In #98 she brings up a phrase of Mac’s that I also puzzled over – however I ended up just deciding that his grammar was off and am not sure whether anything more can be read into it. If it is a slip of a deeper kind, could be quite telling, but I don’t know, those kinds of phrase fudges can be innocently made in haste.

Boro

Boro is kind of the same story as Nogrod for me. If I had been able to start this earlier and not forced to cram it into 2 hours, I’d go over his posts but I’m starting to do this shorthand. At any rate, he voted for Mac whom I was also a bit suspicious of yesterday (still am) so nothing about that raises red flags.

Folwren

I’ll make this short: I’m pretty sure she’s innocent. The only wolf I can recall being histrionic was Valier once, otherwise this is just something wolves don’t do. Innocents do it and get lynched for it, but wolves, not so much. Or maybe I’m just feeling really emphatic, because I recognize a lot of her sentiments as ways I’ve played games in the past. Whatever. Not voting for her.

Rune

I’m still kind of clueless about Rune, which made me uncomfortable enough to vote for him Day 1. However, I think I have enough suspicions of others after Day 2 to vote for one of them.

Unfortunately, in concentrating on the living I’ve sort of run out of time to give a real good look at Volo’s behavior in relation to others. I have mainly his last post to go on.

Okay, I probably have some more to catch up on since I started working on this, so now to see who I’ve cross posted with.

(Sorry I didn't format the links nicely, I usually do, but it just takes forever. I didn't even take down the links for the last ones. I do so hate being rushed).

[Boromir88]

This was my post before, but due to the technical difficulties it didn't come out. I'll try to get everything down before, but this will be rushed to get in time.

Thinlomien, due to problems with computer access already, put that with the technical difficulties recently. I'm willing to let Lommy go for today, but don't expect this grace from me the next day.

Celuien. I wouldn't necessarily call it a spat we had, that seems like a rather hateful connotation. I suspected you, you defended yourself, that's business, it's how it works. I'll be watching you more closely tomorrow, but for today you have cooled a little bit of suspicion.

I felt like something wasn't right with Mac yesterday and I bought his explanation as far as he had never been in that Day 1 situation before. Nogrod did point out a good argument, but I happen to disagree. I did also wonder about this comment, which seemed strange:

First, I was the one who suggested that the remaining people voted Volo. Just because I happen to be the second of the actual voters doesn't make it a cover.

I was wondering about this, I'm beginning to think though that Mac is an innocent. He makes a comment that I honestly don't think a wolf would make:

Out of the ones who have two votes, I don't like to vote for me and I don't like to vote for Folwren. This leaves me again with Volo, whom I could vote for though with a bad conscience and a bad feeling

Nogrod bolds that last part, which I guess would mean he's emphasizing it. The thing is I've seen this saying all too many times during my long history in werewolf, and there's only two situations I've seen.

1. It's an innocent who is worried about lynching another innocent. Which is understandable, and has happened many many times. If you don't know the identity of the person you voted for, you'll feel bad if that person is innocent, or even worse a gifted. This is a natural feeling of an innocent player who's not sure about his votee's identity.

2. It's a wolf to use an excuse to get away from suspicion of voting for an innocent. The wolves of course know who's an innocent, and they're goal is obviously to get innocents lynched. In order to stay away from suspicion, they'll put out this as an excuse to look innocent and they were misled.

I've never seen that comment used by a wolf to vote for another wolf partner. Becuase, the wolves also know their partners, and if they are going to contribute to a partner's death they want to appear strong and make a convincing argument. So people will say...'Look this person was a very influential factor in the death of a wolf, he/she is probably not one then...' I've never seen a wolf act weak/unsure when they cast a vote for another wolf partner. So, for me this right now speak to me that Mac is innocent.

Which leaves me with Glirdan. Di says he is an aggressive player, and the short records I have of Glirdan (1 game, 1 day) this is true. It could just be though that he's using that aggressive behavior, a normal Glirdan personality, to disguise his true aggressive self.

That means.

++Glirdan

(I'm already going to edit this because I know I'm probably mass cross-posting).