WWJ XII: "Oh the tangled web we weave..."

[Nogrod]

... to be continued

Jenny: I have really mixed feelings about. THere is a lot I suspect in Jenny.
In a way she seems like a most "thingish" one I could fathom here. Nicely countering the arguments and going with the general suspicions, just adding enough to look as an independent one. Also her interpretations on Lommy and Mac seem to be very different from mine (which does not mean that I think Lommy or Mac to be innocents... I will have to look at them after these) and too easily come up with. I mean, the difference between a wolf and an innocent lies there where an innocent tries to find the culprits and when s/he is unsure about it, s/he takes back her/his words and leaves the situation in a baffled state, but the villain will be most happy to just go after someone, whoever is suspected.

Then this really caught my eye:

Rikae, dear, you really don't need to panic.

I'm not sure, or even ready to believe, that a thing would be this forward to her mate, but a thing might wish to "buy" some trust with this kind of a trick?

Lastly, on the thing I was mistaken, her point seemed firm enough:

Actually, I think a Thing dies as a result of a new one being made. If a new Thing is not made, the old one does not die.

She happened to be right, even though it was not said aloud in the rules (check the rules or my post #52). So how did she know it? The things must have thought of these rules beforehand and taken care to understand them correctly?

But she has been considerate and reasonable all the time too. Like a good innocent or a very good thing indeed...

So Jenny seems to be my top suspect this far. I must think about this as the one you have just checked looks the most suspicious by definition... And I have not looked with an evil eye to the postings of Volo, Rune, and the trio (Rikae, Lommy & Mac) yet.

Sorry. I'll post this and come to the others in a while. Nice to see you back Menel and making good points. You are easing my problems a bit here.

And Foley: No I'm not intending to say you should only look for my earlier posts. I'm trying to continue with these "analysis" to the end... as I have time to make them...

[JennyHallu]

Actually, Nogrod, I argued back and forth with Valier about the rules quite a bit before the game started, and I felt that she was very clear. Specifically, her use of the phrase "in turn" I felt clearly showed a relationship between the creation of a new Thing and the death of the old.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Actually, Nogrod, I argued back and forth with Valier about the rules quite a bit before the game started, and I felt that she was very clear. Specifically, her use of the phrase "in turn" I felt clearly showed a relationship between the creation of a new Thing and the death of the old.

You may be right. I'm not trying to deny it. I was very busy the days before the game started and have not followed all of the discussion in the TIGJ-thread. I will have to check that too.

And as I said, I have my hardest ones to check still... So being on the lead of my suspicions right now might both be false (as I might see you are genuine with you knowledge about the rules, f.ex.) and too early as I might find better candidates still...

Let's see. I wish to form my conclusions with any evidence I may find. As those of you who have played with my forefathers know: I hate random voting and will wish to have a reason for my vote. I still have a couple of hours before I have to go to sleep, so there is time...

[Nogrod]

... and still continuing.

Volo: Now here's a tough one! Very hard to get a reading. My family has played with his family twice. On the first time my grandpa' was a lycantrophe and would have liked to make a billion cases against him but as he was a major asset for my grandpa' he left him be and was finally "betrayed" by him and died to the benefit of the village... Last time my father found a hint clear enough to go for lynching his father and that one actually was a wolf. But as I believe people get smarter by every generation, I'm not sure if this one of the line of his family is as easy to pick up as his father was.

He goes after Mac in his first post (#23):

May I ask how did you manage to cross-post with Lommy? It does seem somewhat thingy to say so much so early, like we have seen before . But then again, he didn't actually say much thingy stuff, seems pretty honest to me, even if too much.

without actually saying anything. But excusing his own possible early vote.

On #29 he still keeps going after Mac with not the best of reasons:

"Hmm... I don't really agree with you. They can be really misleading. But I hope you don't suggest being one yourself yet? Anyway I somehow don't like the tone of your talk."

"Wasn't that already said?"

Also his vote was somewhat dubious, or what do you say:

Ok, this might be nearly as random as Gil's vote, but here it goes.
++Macalaure, too much explaining talk. Just like Boromir last game. I hope I don't make a big mistake here as Mac really is a usefull guy if innocent.

So just giving the air of making a "random" vote, but still he had already coherently suspected Mac with his earlier posts, as you can see. It should be noted that he defended Lommy consistently too.

All this might be looked as thingy behaviour or just a still newcomer trying to find a style of play... Not good, I say, but not the most suspicious either, or then is. I must see the rest before making any judgements about people...

PS. Volo: you have one retraction possibility! So your vote is not final! Think about it!

[Nogrod]

... and to be continued.

Kitanna: I find her most reasonable indeed. Her points on #40 on Rikae and other stuff seem well balanced and well made. A good Thing would like to act in that way, but there seems to be an air of straight-forwardness in Kitanna's posting. I'm not going after her toDay by any means.

Rune: Now this is another puzzle to solve...

In his first post (#17) he staunchly defends Rikae and suspects Mac somewhat. Then he goes to that "I'm the weawer" -stuff... What to think of it? A bad joke or a very fishy Thing?

In #38 he says:

I think I will direct my attention to Jenny, Volo, Mac and Lommy today.

but after that he does nothing in line with this promise. His last posts after that one are one that discusses the overall strategy and the second one just states that he will be away!

A Thing might do that: looking helpful and considered but then somehow failing to do anything... I know it's early on the Day and he will be one or two hours behind me in the time zones and thence it is possible he will make his words come true, but by now, it doesn't look releasing on him...

[Meneltarmacil]

This one sounds strangely familiar, doesn't it? A similar statement made my innocent grandfather lynch your guilty grandfather.

Shiver me timbers!

Wrong scenario, matey. Me bloodthirsty and quite hairy grandfather claimed that "If one is innocent, then the other must be guilty," I be doing no such things. I suspect both you and Lommy the same; you may even be co-conspirators, though I doubt I could be right on both counts. Also, I posted reasons for suspecting both of ye, not simply that one of ye suspects the other. Ye both look suspicious; that be all I was tryin' to say.

[JennyHallu]

I too am finding my suspicions leaning quite sturdily Nogrod-ward. What do you mean, I'm suspect because I was right about the rules?


I have one major problem with the idea that Nogrod might be a Thing: His ancestors are usually canny wolves.

As for Rune, he said quite clearly he would be back, and is often in the village at times much closer to the deadline. I hardly see being away a reason to lynch someone.

[Volo]

Now I'm most certain you're a thing! Now look at you, you changed your strategy completely after my post.

By his grandfather he means that my grandfather caught the last wolf and by that saved his village. So like Nogrod says himself, even in that village he had many points against me, but still he's grandfather was the wolf and my grandfather was a ranger.
Sorry to say so complicatedly, I mean he had many cases against me even when I was a ranger and he a wolf.

I might also say that Nogrod takes only the suspicious things I said into account, not the stuff I have said that might clear it...

I voted Mac, because I didn't remember about the retracable vote (thanks Nog) and thought that I couldn't post later, I was wrong. The things Nogrod quoted about me can be explained in my other talk.
It was a rather random vote, but the best I came up with, you yourself caught Boromir's father for such reasons.
And about Lommy, I don't recall defending her...

(I'm just a newcomer trying to learn to play, I'm not even so far as the style.)

I think I have enough reason to change my vote:

--Macalaure

++Nogrod

And before you accuse me again, wrongly, I'm off!

EDIT: cross posted with Noggie's last post

[Nogrod]

Thank's Volo. It's always nice to be "rewarded" when you notify others that they may change their votes...

But anyhow, I'm still trying to finish my task of looking this final trio. It's getting late here but I will do my best. I know I can't die toNight. And I also know, that I can't participate toMorrow (OOC: as I will be in a hospital with a minor surgery). So I try to do my best toDay.

Let's see if that leads to anything or not...

EDIT: X-d with Menel - good point...

[Macalaure]

Right now, I have to say that I agree with Menel's points on Jenny. Few substance there is.

Am I really the only one who is suspicious of Kitanna? Hmmm...

Volo has been very weird, but weird in an innocent way. I think you've told everybody that you consider yourself to be new at this often enough now.

I somehow doubt Rune will be around at the deadline. Like for me, it's 6 am for him.

Originally Posted by Folwren

I think it was because he thought Mac was an innocent and wanted Volo to change his mind and try voting for a guilty thing. . .I don't think he suspected that change of mind.

Not necessarily. If innocent, he might just have wanted to remind him of the possibility. If guilty, he might have wanted to look helpful to him. Didn't work in that case.

[Rikae]

OK, I''ve read through the day's posts, and there are a couple of things I'd like to respond to.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Rikae's first vote makes me feel very uneasy. Her constant return to the fact "I'll probably be lynched" and "My death will prove my innocence" is unnerving. Also I'm a bit suspcious of the comparsions of other games, when comparing this villages to other villages could have no real bearing in the end.

My goodness. First of all, I haven't voted yet! I take it you're uneasy about what my vote will be?
As far as comparisons with other games go, if we couldn't learn from past games, a rookie would be on equal footing with an experienced WW player, no?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Her points in the first post state the obvious and though she hasn't taken all sides into consideration I think she is thinking logically. I was extremely worried about her after reading her first posts, but my susipicions have lessened a bit after reading further.

I take it logical thinking makes you uneasy? I'd have to disagree with you there - I find illogical posts far more unsettling.
Mac still seems to be simultaneously trying to draw attention to me and to paint himself as my supporter, and I find it strange, to say the least.
Folwren, on the other hand, seems sincere, and
Nogrod, who as I post has not yet given his opinion of me, has been fairly straightforward and logical.
Volo seems nervous, but maybe that's just his style.

Originally Posted by Volo

You still haven't answered why Lommy should vote you instead of Mac. Why would you have voted yourself? Do continue...

I didn't answer because I'm not sure I understand what you're asking. Lommy did vote for me, not Mac - as far as why, I assume it's because I was "on the map" and there was nothing to prevent her voting for me. If I had to vote early, I would have voted for someone who had been vocal and quick to put forth theories, and that describes Lommy, Mac and myself. I didn't expect Lommy to vote for Mac because they give the appearance of having something between them that prevents them from suspecting each other - as I said before.
Mene appears to be suspicious of Jenny, Mac, Lommy and myself, and since I suspect the other 3 and know I'm innocent, I'm inclined to believe Mene is also innocent...but we shall see. It's too early to have any real suspects, and I, for one, am most uneasy about those who are quickest to accuse.

EDIT: X posted with Nog, Mac, Fol, Jenny, Mene and Volo

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac still seems to be simultaneously trying to draw attention to me and to paint himself as my supporter, and I find it strange, to say the least.

Rikae, please, tell me, how can I defend myself from drawing attention towards you without drawing attention to you while I do so? It's not possible!

I didn't expect Lommy to vote for Mac because they give the appearance of having something between them that prevents them from suspecting each other - as I said before.

Read through the posts again. I do suspect Lommy. Right now, it's not even unlikely I end up voting for her.

[Rikae]

Are you referring to this post?

Originally Posted by Mac

Do I have to worry about you, Lommy?

because, sorry if I'm wrong, but this just doesn't sound like genuine suspicion to me (especially with the wink!). Still, she looks more suspicious to me than you do at this point, and I also have my doubts about Jenny, who seems to be trying to stay out of the fray while looking helpful, and Volo; the way the two of them suddenly turned on Noggie in unison had a somewhat thingish appearance.

[Nogrod]

Okay, The final ones...

Rikae: Her first post seems dubious enough. It looks like it is a newcomer wishing to make an impression or a very cunning Thing clothing herself as a witty newbie. I understand the suspicions that post has raised. I can't agree with all the wisdom she poured over us there and indeed disagree with a couple of points she made there. But that shouldn't be the problem here. We have different histories and Rikae's points looked like ones coming from someone who has more read than actually participated in these games.

Then Lommy started suspecting her manner of presenting her points. At this point I have to agree with Lommy - and later Mac. The way Rikae made her points as obvious were far from it (as the later discussion showed they weren't).

I can't see why many of you were suspicious of Mac's post #12. He was making a lot of sense there, correcting the simplified points made by Rikae.

Then there is the usual banter between people on the first Day. Between Lommy and Mac I see it as quite innocent, both trying to make a point with not much to go with as so few had posted by then.

Many of you have said that Mac has attacked Rikae and carefully been defending his own not to be definitive in his accusations - so playing it safely. I agree. He has done some suspicious things as suspecting her and then relieving her at the same time.

With Rikae's post #24 I'm really baffled. I think I would like to think her as an innocent trying her best but there still is something that bothers me. Many of her deductions run contrary to what I deduct from the points in question. But mostly they seem sincere enough. But if I take account of her later posts - with actually some substance to relate to - she seems to be more reasonable by every post...

Lommy's arguments before she voted were good enough but there was an air of unsincerity. (This is feeling based) Her vote on Rikae looks bad compared with her statements that she really was downgrading her suspicion on her all the time... I know she had to part early (she has no net-connection at home), but still it was not the most convincing vote I've seen.

All the things going on between Lommy and Mac are also worthwhile to notice. As Rikae said:

Mac - I have some slight suspicion because of the information he gave to contradict my original points, which didn't seem particularly accurate and seemed designed to generate suspicion toward me rather than to shed light on the situation, at such an early point in the game that he could not have known my status unless he was a thing or the seer, and I doubt the seer would choose to dream about a rookie (of course,I know if he was the Seer he wouldn't be casting doubt on me, but you don't know that!). It is, however, entirely possible he was only offering the other perspective to make us aware of all possibilities. I'm reserving judgement for now. Still, his seeming mock-suspicion toward Lommy also raised warning signals for me.
Lommy - Argued with Mac, but never suspected him, and voted for me while claiming she thought I was innocent. On the one hand, this resembles the "innocent voting randomly without intending to actually lynch that person" scenario I had previously described - on the other hand, doing what has just been described as innocent behavior is rather thingish in itself. I also have a gut feeling that she and Mac have some sort of understanding, and that is, of course, suspicious.

The inter-connection of Lommy and Mac looks suspicious. I agree with it. But is Rikae here the neutral or innocent observer either? This drives me crazy!

After these things, Mac has been making more sense and sounding more true. It could be that the very starting debate was there because there was nothing else to discuss and only a few people were around to write anything? And same holds for Rikae. She too has gotten much more reasonable as the Day has passed on. So are we indeed suspecting them solely on the grounds that they were online early and had nothing else to go for but the posts of each other of them? If so, the real Things will be laughing quietly in their dark corners...

So do these things tell us anything? Not likely... But I would still like to remind you of my first post: many times it is the innocents who go after one another and ensure the lynching of an innocent by that... They might all three be innocents. Careful Things would avoid that kind of publicity!

I will have to take another look to these before I go.

And surely I have some earlier suspicions in my mind, mostly on Jenny, but we'll see to it.

(OOC: I will vote soon and go to sleep but as I'm a bit worried about my operation I might not get to sleep so easily and thence might come back with a new vote if the situation has changed markedly)

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I take it logical thinking makes you uneasy? I'd have to disagree with you there - I find illogical posts far more unsettling.

You misunderstand. I was never trying to use that against you. I was stating you were thinking logically and nothing more.