Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXV: All Star Crossed With Nowhere to Go

[Nogrod]

addenda (everything after this is updated... and all is in the middle of the making):
Oh No! Menel, that wasn't the wisest thing to do - if you are innocent!

Lhuna --> Farael (Farael1)
Rune --> Farael (Farael2)
Morm --> Farael (Farael3)
Lommy --> Macalaure (Farael3, Macalaure1)
Menel --> Farael (Farael4, Macalaure1)

What bothers me is that we need some pressure here - if someone is planning to post anything in this thread toDay anyhow...

I agree. With the "evidence" so far Farael is also my prime suspect, but we leave our chances unused if we just lynch him. He might be innocent too and if we put all our apples into one basket we have no chance to gain anything but the chance of Farael actually being a baddie. Spreading the suspicion a bit more might make people speak and give us more to think about.

But it should be a believable threat!
(at this moment I saw Menel's vote... doing some calculating for a while...)

[Nogrod]

Here's my counting and some thoughts on them.

There are 6 votes cast already (Farael4, Mac1, Rune1).

There might be 3 votes that will not be cast (have Kath, Durelin & Rikae even the knowledge that the game has started?).

That leaves 9 votes to be cast, possibly. Hopefully more. Let's hope not less.

As I said, I have no objection, on the basis of what I know this far, for Farael to be lynched. I'm not going to die with him. This is a question of basic tactics.

Tactically this is not very wise. We have all the chances to try different suspicions and to see whether a dog howls as it's hit. Now we are just playing it the way all the werecreatures & their lovers want it: stick to one suspicion and leave the others be. No credible danger to any (other?) werecreature / lover and we will gain very little by way of knowledge from this Day one.

PS. Numbers in the beginning are updated... and I'm more than out of good ideas right now.

[Durelin]

I do have knowledge, and unfortunate (nearly tragic) circumstances caused me to be unable to be here until now, but I am currently working on a lengthier post. Just think of me as being tragically fashionably late...

[Nogrod]

Well, the situations seem to change constantly... I was writing a post about the interesting things that were happening around Lhuna and as there were too many knights in shining armour to lift her into their arms I started thinking if we threathened Lhuna and saw what would happen? Would all the princes still defended her? Try it toMorrow if I'm not with you then. I think there might be something...

Just to post my "best case" (not much, but something):
arcticstorm, in #36 (check it and you see the discrapancy in argumentation and the grounds given), made very reasonable-sounding arguments on the actual things different people had done during the day, but had only this kind of things to say about Lhuna:

Lhuna's vote just comes from her sleeping disorder, how, especially today, is she supposed to give a good vote with so little to go on and a sleeping disorder.

, and:

Farael's challenge of Holby could have been just been panic and confusion, not necessarily something to be suspected. But at the same time, his constant argument that everyone is voting for him because of Lhuna is ridiculous.

--------------------

But to the bussiness. Votes so far:
Lhuna --> Farael (Farael1)
Rune --> Farael (Farael2)
Morm --> Farael (Farael3)
Lommy --> Macalaure (Farael3, Macalaure1)
Menel --> Farael (Farael4, Macalaure1)
Macalaure --> Rune (Farael4, Macalaure1, Rune1)
Jenny --> Valier (Farael4, Macalaure1, Rune1, Valier1)
arcticstorm --> Menel (Farael4, Macalaure1, Rune1, Valier1, Menel1)
Valier --> Jenny (Farael4, Macalaure1, Rune1, Valier1, Menel1, Jenny1)
Durelin --> Kitanna (Farael4, Macalaure1, Rune1, Valier1, Menel1, Jenny1, Kitanna1)

No pressure. No competition. No revealments or panicky moves from the baddies to be seen. Over half of the votes cast and no one knows about Kath or Rikae...

But as for now, the last three votes look somewhat bad to my eyes as they have known the situation and still spreaded the vote unnecessarily wide. Jenny said she run out of time. But arcticstorm or Valier? Nicely put votes, if you're baddies. Unthoughtful, if you're goodies...

PS. X-d with Durelin (statistics updated). The same goes for her as for the other last ones...

[Durelin]

You're almost contradicting yourself, Nogrod. While I understand both why you'd be concerned about concentration of suspicion and too spread out voting when one person already has four votes, I think how quickly you decide that people who aren't jumping on one of the lynch boats so that someone else might go in the place of Farael is unfair and illogical.

If you thought/think that an attempt to 'save' Farael or something, you might have suggested it. Everyone went for their own suspicions, which is all one can do when there isn't some sort of plan. And the only people who might have a real plan at this point is probably the Lovers.

And ooh, there are more votes left than I thought. Things might get more interesting yet...

[Naria]

Okay so I will vote for

++Menel

Mostly for the reason that I've stated and others have stated. Morm didn't seem to be making that big of a deal "accusing" you and didn't seem to push the issue any further, yet you keep insisting on an explanation. I know you are completely mad, but why the insistance?

[mormegil]

Valier's vote seems awfully knee-jerk to me!

Care to explain? Essentially she said that she found Jenny suspicious because she hadn't posted and then when she saw that Jenny voted for her she decided to return in kind.

Granted up to this point I didn't find Valier overly suspicious just a bit quiet so Jenny's vote doesn't make much sense to me but Valier's reaction is a bit more odd.

[Holbytlass]

(Farael4, Macalaure1, Rune1, Valier1, Menel1, Jenny1, Kitanna1)
uurrgh! this is terrible-a partial bandwagon and the rest spread so wide.
no one seems particularly suspicious but Menel does seem a bit too defensive.

++menel

EDIT:[Durelin]Things might get more interesting yet...[/quote]
xposted with nogrod morm naria

[Kitanna]

I personally don't find Farael overly suspicious. At first I saw his accusation of Holby as something that was all in good fun (er, what can be considered as such in this situation).
Half of me says "Farael should be lynched, just look at his posts and suspicions."
But the other half says "This is a huge mistake."
And with such uncertainty I find it hard to cast a vote today. Farael has plenty of suspicions following him around, but no one has really come forward to defend him, which is what holds me back from voting for him. If he was a werecreature I feel his Lover (or vice versa) would come forward and try as hard as they could to convince other voters to vote for someone else. But so far no one has been attacked like Farael has.
The only person to give me a real vibe of attempting to sway away from Farael is Mac.

Though I find Farael most suspicious right now, I agree with Nogrod: We need some competition here. For obvious reasons, I don't think I would make a good one

That's not a very good defense for someone whose lover already had 4 votes.
Since no one has really tried to vote for Farael I'm conflicted about how to vote.
I'll be back soon with a vote. Possibly for Farael...

[Nogrod]

I'll try to make some competition for the last couple of hours. The one-vote -gainers then... one of them I will have to vote:

- Mac I would like to see around as he's an asset when his innocent and the "case" against him is not very good.
- Rune is always slippery to me, I never get him right... Now I think there is something that is not okay with him, but that probably means he's okay.
- Valier's placing of her vote is really suspicious and she might try to use the legends of her family to evil ends... but still, she might have just being herself.
- Menel I would like to see as an innocent around, but his continual defenciveness has made me wonder and somewhat suspect him too.
- Jenny left suddenly and acted strangely, but RL is an excuse.
- Kitanna might be a cunning player enough to speak wisely and stay more in the background. I would fear her as an enemy but am inclined to believe her more innocent by now.


So:

++ Meneltarmacil

Too upset I say and too much assuring his innocence.

But don't forget the "Lhuna circle", not the least arcticstorm tomorrow. And if for some miracle Farael is alive toMorrow, he's still on top of my suspicions...

Durelin:
If all of us last voters just come up with a new candidate to vote, nothing will happen and the baddies will love the situation. I might have wished to vote for Farael, arcticstorm or Lhuna, but that would be spreading the vote too much, so I had to come up with something else (and I've lost half of my sleeping time soon for it... ). That is the reason why I thought that the last given votes are either unthought-of or suspicious. We have so many baddies around that it is totally possible that they might have come to vote at the good spot (not all you four, but one, two?) just to make sure their necks are safe and no one suspects them (but I...).

If you thought/think that an attempt to 'save' Farael or something, you might have suggested it. Everyone went for their own suspicions, which is all one can do when there isn't some sort of plan. And the only people who might have a real plan at this point is probably the Lovers.

Farael still tops my own list of suspicion, as I said. Plan or not. I don't have a plan, but I can see that we may play with ways that may bring us some valuable information or then ignoring the chances to get it... You know, we villagers can't play as a team as we can't trust each other as persons, but we can trust rational arguments about the ways that are most profitable to us and help us the best and look around if some people try to play in ways that are harmful to us... Then we just have to see who was unthoughtful and who was malicious... (and that's no easy thing either)

EDIT: X'd with Naria