Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXV: All Star Crossed With Nowhere to Go

[Farael]

Let me insist here....

I better be very vocal now that I can, since I'm on the spotlight anyway and I will have to undergo a forced silence soon enough.

While I don't expect people to toss out accusations as strongly and sternly as I do on every post (heck, that'd ruin my lovely Farael style of werewolfing!) Does anyone else find it suspicious that Holby only posted to defend her vote? That's all she said. (Praphrasing) Look, I'm innocent... and confused, so I'm not going to add anything to the discussion

I can understand why someone would like to think before they post. I know, I don't always do it, but SOME people may want to. Yet what's the point of posting ONLY to say "I'm innocent"? I don't believe her anyway, and anyone else who does should be shot.

What? guns aren't invented yet? ok, smacked with a palantir.

No, not because I am the almighty watcher and I know things for sure... that was Nogrod and sadly he is no longer among us... but rather, because ANYONE who believes what another of us says ought to have "inside information"... and with Nogrod being dead, the only way to have inside info is...

So, I say, am I suspicious? well, maybe I'm too outspoken for my own good... but then, isn't it a proven werethingish tactic to fly under the radar? make some inocuous posts so that everyone will say "well, I have nothing to go on with her... that's suspicious, but not suspicious enough to lynch her".

I stand by my words, if Holby is trully innocent, why is she silent now after coming up with an (I know, jesting) list on the first few hours of the game? I think she's trying to fly under the radar..... well, perhaps when I go down in flames I shall bring her down with me.

NO! Not a lover's hint, which would be rather stupid, I mean that once I'm proven innocent beyond doubt (and beyond the seas to Valinor where Mandos' halls are) I hope you'll see my wisdom.

Or it may not even come to that. Lynch her before me!

Edit: Just to clarify my poor English... when I say "anyone who believes what another says" means "anyone who believes what another says without questioning whether s/he may actually be playing for the other team".

I wasn't sure I was getting my message across properly.

[JennyHallu]

Farael, you're forgetting a major point. Not even the evil know who their enemies are, and which might have the power to kill them in the night. The day is not over, Holby still has plenty of time to write more posts...not everyone likes to mix defensive and offensive statements. I separate them whenever I can, just for clarity's sake. You're getting a little out of hand, Farael, and making me nervous. This is just how you acted as Kath's lover (previous game, Fin...don't feel overwhelmed at all our "inside" information...I really value your viewpoint, because you're not hampered by our preconceptions of eachother. I still think you might be evil though )

[Kath]

Lhuna's Lover Jenny not mine, he was just trying to get me killed.

Now, to this Farael/Holby battle. I have seen this style of playing before from Farael and it does give me cause for concern, but I have not seen this style of playing before from Holby and that also worries me.

However, everybody here knows that the only way we can find out the truth is if they are lynched during the Day or killed at Night. Unfortunately, if they both turn out to be innocents, and it's possible, we're totally screwed. Even if Farael were the WereBird's lover and Holby the WereHamster or whatever we've actually got coming after us, there are still 4 other candidates out there.

We need not to get lost in pointless battles and this really is one. If we don't check it, it will turn into a feud with some on one side, some on another and some just trying to stay out of it. Other possibilities will be overlooked and it won't be good for us at all.

By all means we need to keep an eye on these two, but not to the exclusion of everyone else. Personally I would like to see Farael calm down. It is quite possible you don't realise it Farael but the tone you are using is causing everyone to bristle. A few susbstantial posts from Holby would be nice too so that we can actually get a feel for her.

[JennyHallu]

Thank you for your correction. I knew Lhuna was involved and for some reason mentally reversed you two.

And an excellent point. I think I'll take a good long look at someone being mostly ignored...if I find anything that'll be cool, but mostly I want to make sure every name stays in the debate.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Farael

And let me start another accusation on flimsy grounds that will cost my neck for sure. Yes, I know he has expressed doubts about me, but does anyone else find morm being alive slightly curious? Unless we are dealing with a group of werecreatures that have never played with him before, out of FOUR kills, no-one thought of getting rid of that mormegil? he's a danger to them if he is an ordo, and he's even more perilious as a lover or a werething.

Yet I'm not going to say "lynch him because he survived"... just keep an eye on him.

I'm not all the way caught up but this caught my eye.

Okay, this makes me even more concerned about Farael. Allow me to explain, this is a very intelligent thing to do as a were-creature. Think about it! Farael has the power to kill anybody he wanted last night...or at least influence it as a lover but I suspect that he is the actual were-creature, and yet he's 'wondering' why I'm still alive. Perfect way to get rid of me without actually doing the job plus it will help distance himself from seeming guilty if/when I die.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Farael

And let me start another accusation on flimsy grounds that will cost my neck for sure. Yes, I know he has expressed doubts about me, but does anyone else find morm being alive slightly curious? Unless we are dealing with a group of werecreatures that have never played with him before, out of FOUR kills, no-one thought of getting rid of that mormegil? he's a danger to them if he is an ordo, and he's even more perilious as a lover or a werething.

That is a bad argument. If morm would be suspicious automatically if he survives only one night he would never see the end of a game, which is just unfair. I could see your point if the werethings could work together, but they can't. Four (or three if he's guilty) pairs indepentantly made the decision not to go for morm. Why should opposing couples spare him, even if he is a lover?

Holby, I'm quite male actually.
(Macalaure is Quenya for Maglor)
It's four males and eight females. I doubt there's a male-male-pair given these numbers. But if there's one female-female-pair, then two of four males are guilty and four of eight females are guilty. This makes lynching the males first not a real advantage.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

That is a bad argument. If morm would be suspicious automatically if he survives only one night he would never see the end of a game, which is just unfair. I could see your point if the werethings could work together, but they can't. Four (or three if he's guilty) pairs indepentantly made the decision not to go for morm. Why should opposing couples spare him, even if he is a lover?
.

See, the thing is, my argument is based on the fact that the werethings are NOT working together. If he was indeed on one of the three evil teams remaning, the odds of him getting eaten at night decrease. You say, why should opposing couples spare him? I ask, howcome they DID spare him?

And I'm not saying condemn him yet, I'm saying keep an eye on him, because as much as he is a powerfull ally, he is much more of a dangerous enemy.

As for Holby... c'mon, kill all the males? with this ratios Diamond would be rather unwise not to have a few same-sex couples... while I'm not privy to her thoughts, by systematically killing all males we guarantee that a few werethings will survive FOUR days. If they don't kill each other by night, we'll give them a HUGE advantage. Also, systematically doing ANYTHING helps the baddies, as they KNOW what we will do not only on a specific day but also on days to come and they can plan accordingly.

Having said so, I do not hold this alone against Holby, it may look like a good idea and it has been proposed before.

But it does add up to my existing doubts about her... after all, she IS a her.

[Holbytlass]

Farael
Fintaeph
Morm

Durelin
Holby
JennyHallu
Kath
Lhuna
Lommy
Mac
Rikae
Valier

As I was going through the thread looking for possible lover strategies when it occured to me that (assuming i have everyone's gender correct) there are more females than males.

I put out for discussion lynching the males first, it would take care of any female/male pairs and male/male pairs. Any innocent male would maybe consider this for the good of the village.

I'm not that good with numbers so I'm not sure if that would work with DAY/Night kills.

[Kath]

Umm, Holby I'm assuming you mean there are more females than males right?

I don't like to say much about the idea of lynching everyone from one gender. This isn't the first time such a plan has been suggested and it's always met with a lot of argument. In this case there are so few males left it might actually be viable, but I'd be loathe to lose morm if he's on our side, and I would for Fin to be able to play a while longer. I'm waiting to pass judgement on Farael, as I'm hoping he will calm down, but that said it is looking increasingly bad for him.

Thing is, if we go with a 'planed' lynch then everyone who takes part in it basically has a get out of jail free card. If they're pointed out for having voted for someone who it has been decided shall be lynched, all they need to say is that they were following the plan.

morm, yes I caught that from Farael as well. Problem is that it's a two-way street. He's right, the longer you're left alive the more suspicious you will look, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he's the Werecreature keeping you alive, it could be any of them. And the same holds true whether you be innocent or guilty.

[Holbytlass]

Lhuna for Farael (Farael 1)
Thinlo for Mac (Farael 3, Macalaure 1)
Macalaure for Rune (Farael 4, Macalaure 1, Rune 1)
JennyHallu for Valier (Farael 4, Macalaure 1, Rune 1, Valier 1)
Valier for JennyHallu (Farael 4, Macalaure 1, Rune 1, Valier 1, Menel 1, Jenny 1)
Durelin for Kitanna (Farael 4, Macalaure 1, Rune 1, Valier 1, Menel 1, Jenny 1, Kitanna 1)

While werecreatures are known to bandwagon, it is also a safe position to vote for someone first.

Lhuna (the very first) vote for Fareal. A random vote for someone who hadn't even posted yet let alone rubbed some people the wrong way. In and of itself not suspicious, especially with hertimezone issues.

Lommy for Mac. Had suspicions about him and kept with the vote.

Mac for Rune. had suspicions kept with the vote, sus of Fareal but wanted competition for lynching

Jenny for Valier. came on late (RL issue) saw that Valier was as speechless as her and voted Valier.

Valier for Jenny. in seemingly retaliation

Durelin for Kittana. finds Kitt "under the radar" and votes for her.

Other than as I stated voting for someone first is a safe position (can't be accused of bandwaggoning) the only ones that stand out is the Jenny/Valier voting as Morm had pointed out.

Neither were high on anyone's suspicion list and both voted for each other for not posting much. Could be the female/female team. So these two are now high on my suspect list.

P.S. sorry Mac for the gender mix-up.

[Rikae]

I was preparing a long post and missed the deadline yet again.
See assigned to Mordor for some explanation.
If I can still vote:
++Morm

[JennyHallu]

Macalaure...

#10

Mac was certainly not the first person to post, nor the last. Nothing seems odd to me about his post placement.

This post seems mostly noncommital. He discusses possibilities for the behavior of the were-creatures and their lovers, but concludes with two widely disparate theories, and doesn't put more weight on either. He says not to look for pairs on the early days, but brings up the possibility that it will be more useful later. He bemoans Lhuna's random vote, but says he'll let it pass.

I think it is safe to say that we are looking at the post of a careful player, but it doesn't really point to what role he might have.

Reactions to this post:
Naria (WERECAT)- doesn't like an "if" post to be a day one/first post. Thinks it looks shady. The beauty of hindsight...now this response looks shady itself. A careful poster, a cautious poster, these things Mac certainly was, but an "if" poster? I don't see it.
Lommy - agrees with Naria, votes Mac. Says she dislikes the fact that his post is from the were-creature's POV.
Nogrod (WATCHER)- mentions it raises questions, doesn't really add anything.

#29

Asks, rhetorically, what is so suspicious about trying to see the werecreatures' point of view. Mentions suspicion of Farael, for questioning things Mac finds trivial, and suspicion of Rune for being overly aggressive in attacking Farael.

Again, seems to be a careful post...short and to the point, unlike Mac's usual eloquence. But again, nothing seems really suspicious, except that I would have protested more to three people thinking I was suspicious. That might just be me, I tend to be really defensive, but it's a thought.

Reactions:
Nogrod (WATCHER) - backs off his suspicion of Mac a little...well, he says he's uncomfortable with his reasons for that suspicion.

#35

Votes for Rune, to widen the field. Still doesn't say much.

Reactions:
arcticstorm (WERECAT LOVER)- asks Mac to elaborate on why he finds Rune suspicious, says he does not.

Mac does not show up again for the remainder of the day, which doesn't really worry me, as he's already voted.

I'll come back later, and may or may not continue with Mac's posts. Depends. I will say that I feel better about how vocal he is today compared to yesterday.

[Macalaure]

An analysis of me!

Again, seems to be a careful post...short and to the point, unlike Mac's usual eloquence. But again, nothing seems really suspicious, except that I would have protested more to three people thinking I was suspicious. That might just be me, I tend to be really defensive, but it's a thought.

Jenny calls me careful, Lommy calls me soft. You're either lovers - or right. I like to play aggressive and edgy, but only if I have something to play this way with. I only had weak suspicions yet and I don't like to accuse somebody loudly if I'm not sure about it.
I used to defend myself quite vehemently in my past games, that's true. However, I grew familiar with the feeling of being suspected. I don't know what it is, but I always attract the suspicion of two or three people on the first day. It doesn't bother me that much any more.
Thanks for calling me eloquent.

I forgot to answer arctic's question. I found Rune a little suspicious because of his aggressive yet unfounded and regretting vote for Farael. I didn't like the Farael-waggon and so I went with the only other person I felt bad about.