Did Saruman Believe He Could Master The One Ring?

[The Saucepan Man]

Effectively, we have a difference of opinion over Sauron’s thought process here. The alternatives may be summarised as follows:

1. Saruman has been looking for the Ring.
2. Saruman has captured a Hobbit.
3. A Hobbit was bearing the Ring.
4. Ergo Saruman has both Hobbit and Ring.
5. I am delighted at this turn of events.
6. Both Hobbit and Ring must be handed over to me immediately.
7. Have Nazgul in vicinity, will send it straight away.

or

1. Saruman was looking for the Ring.
2. Saruman has captured a Hobbit.
3. A Hobbit was bearing the Ring.
4. This Hobbit doesn’t have the Ring.
5. I am delighted at this turn of events.
6. Hobbit must be handed over to me immediately.
7. Have Nazgul in vicinity, will send it straight away.

Both involve an assumption on Sauron’s part – the italicised words at point 4. in both formulations. Neither assumption necessarily follows as a matter of logic from the first three points. However, it seems to me that, in all the circumstances, the assumption in the first formulation is the one that Sauron was the more likely to make. It is also more consistent with the points that follow.

Add to this the words that Sauron spoke to Pippin and the more natural conclusion to draw from his use of the word “it” (repeated by Pippin to Gandalf), and I have no doubt that Sauron thought that Saruman had captured the Ringbearer.

Did Sauron stop to consider the likelihood of Saruman “calling him up” in these circumstances? Possibly. Possibly not. If he did, my guess is that he thought that Saruman was prepared to hand the Ring over to him in return for favour, rather than risk having Sauron’s full force unleashed upon him. Sauron was an over-confident fellow who regarded himself and his capabilities highly and assumed that others would do so too. Alternatively, he may have thought that the captive Hobbit had been left alone by Saruman with the Palantir and had made a desperate attempt to call for help.

Although we are here in the realm of pure speculation, there are to my mind perfectly credible explanations for Sauron not thinking it overly strange that he should receive this call.