Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXV: All Star Crossed With Nowhere to Go - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Macalaure · 11-04-2006, 07:38 AM

So.. Kath is dead. Can't say I'm very surprised after all. The way she missed the first day pretty much gave away that she was an innocent. I mean, if she was otherwise, she would have pmed her lover or the mod, and either one would have told her to get into the fray - and quick!
I was her main suspect by a wide margin. There was her suspicion of me and Farael being a couple and her saying that I and Lhuna are not.
I think Kath made a very fine safe pick for the bear and his/her lover. Kinda fits in with the previous kills of Kitanna and Jenny, though we don't know whether they in fact had a solid suspicion about Jenny.

Rereading the last day made me a little suspicious of Farael again, and kept my suspicion of Durelin alive. I only had time to have a really close look at Farael (which might now look pretty useless after Lhuna's detailed analysis, but anyway). I hope I can manage a short analysis of Durelin later.

Farael is bold. That's nothing new and it's of course not suspicious in itself. But there are some specifics about his boldness that I think are weird.
- There's his argument against Rikae in #132. Just like Rikae immediateley points out, it makes no sense.
- he says he likes Kath's analysis of me, finds Rikae and Valier suspicious and thinks we should have a close look at the silent ones (Durelin and Valier). With the exception of Lhuna and Kath this covers everyone.
- his counterattack on Valier in #145 was quite aggressive, but I'll let it pass. What wonders me more is that he praises himself with his correct suspicions. In this particular game, that means nothing! (as Nogrod taught us some games ago, it never does, in fact) I understand he's happy that he's right, but come on...
- then in #160 he points out he's been playing the same way since three games. I think I couldn't play two days in a row the same way even if I tried.
- why does he point out that he would never notice if Lhuna is evil? Even if it's true, why did he point it out?

No offense intended, but I would hate, I would loathe to lose against someone who is so outspoken about his own innocence and this since the very first day. It would make us all look pretty stupid. I know this is no argument at any rate, but I just had to say it.

I'll be back later to vote, and hopefully to have a closer look at Durelin.

Macalaure · 11-04-2006, 10:59 AM

What? Nobody else has posted in all that time??

I have to vote and I can't put as much reason into it as I liked to.

++Durelin, again

The other possibility would be voting Farael, since I find Rikae rather innocentish and Lhuna very helpful and well-balanced in her arguments. Durelin steered herself very much along the all-female-pair direction, which taken for itself is okay, but she takes it as far as to not looking at me and Farael anymore. Look at the way she was against the Farael-Mac-pair-idea! Since I know I'm not her lover (and no lover at all) I fear that she and Farael might be the last couple, but I'm not absolutely certain.

Durelin · 11-04-2006, 11:48 AM

I'd just like to say that you are indeed screwed... And am under the impression the Lhuna and Mac might be our final pair.

Just because one is wrong in their suspicions does not make them guilty. I wished to wait to vote, because before it came down to the end, the vote was garnering for people I did not then suspect. I now wish I had gone with Kath's continued suspicion of Mac...

I love Lhuna's last post here...she makes a big long analysis of Farael, a favorite among the suspected ones for a long time, and determines that of course I must be his lover...but the fact that I voted for him, at the deadline, means he must innocent. Yes, he simply must.

And then she votes for me...where's that nice big long analysis?

Mac's post is the same way...he analyzes Farael, and runs off only to come back and just vote for me...no "closer look." Maybe he didn't have the time...just like Lhuna?

Everyone has forgotten that on Day One we almost lynched Farael, and yet the people who voted for Menel and swayed the tie are all dead...except for Farael himself. None of them were his lover...otherwise he wouldn't be here. Rikae I can't be nearly as 'certain' about, but I actually agree with Mac's simple reasoning about her just enough...

Please, Rikae, Farael...I really really hope you're innocent...and if you are, please help me. I think you two are innocent...if you were here, I might not be so certain, but I think that at least one of you would have been active already today, if one or both of you were not innocent. Still, that doesn't necessarily mean anything...

If you aren't innocent...well, help these two lynch me and make a big ninny out of me.

Talk about flying under the radar...has Lhuna actually had anyone vote for her? Not as far as I can tell... Ugh, I wish I had paid more attention to her...

++Lhuna

Farael · 11-04-2006, 12:19 PM

This is a tough one... I don't have a lot of time and yet I don't really think Durelin is all that guilty. Problem is, I'm not sure Lhuna is either, but if I vote for a third option Durelin will be lynched for sure. I guess I'll hold on to my vote, let's see if Rikae shows up... Ugh, if there's one horrible thing about playing Werewolf against people you've PM'd with is that I just can't get myself to mistrust Lhuna... and yet, the fact that she is such a nice gal may be the reason why she's reticient to kill me. After all, if both her and Mac had voted for me, odds are I would have gotten lynched... and at the same time, why not? would Lhuna let her friendlyness affect her judgement that much? and would Mac, her lover (if that scenario is correct at all) let that happen as well?

And what if Durelin is trying to put the wool over our eyes? what if she IS actually guilty?

Rikae · 11-04-2006, 01:27 PM

Oh, boy. I'm almost sure now that Farael is guilty. I was very suspicious of him yesterday, and then innocent Valier warned us against him. If I'm right, his lover knew that he would be a likely candidate for today's lynching, unless she came up with a clever diversion (I say she because Mac seems very innocent). What could be better than appearing to suspect him, pinpointing someone else as his lover, and then voting for that someone else? If Lhuna suspected Farael so strongly, shouldn't she vote for him? Her reasoning in voting for Durelin is completely convoluted, as well: first she argues that Farael seems guilty, than says Durelin is probably his lover; than that because Durelin voted for him, she definitely isn't his lover (not necessarily true, especially when Farael wasn't in much danger at that point), and then votes for Durelin! Does anyone else think this makes absolutely no sense?
My vote most likely will be for Farael. Maybe Lhuna's initial points (which could have been a ruse to distract us) are right, and his lover is Durelin - or maybe my suspicions are right, and his lover is Lhuna. Either way, we win.
I would also like to say that it seems unlikely, at this point, that we have a female-female pair. Remember, Di said she might have same sex pairs, but the three that have died so far have all been male-female. This would have been by chance alone; the odds that the oonly same-sex pair would also be the last to survive are 25% those that they would have died already and since they didn't, they don't exist, 75%. It's not impossible, but I'm going with the best odds.

Farael · 11-04-2006, 01:56 PM

Rikae, if you vote for me, you die... unless you are a werebear or her lover... but then, if you were, why not vote for whoever is innocent of Lhuna or Durelin? one moment... you DO need me to vote for Lhuna before you can vote for her and kill us all, if you are indeed a baddie.

Mind you, I say that if you vote for me you die, unless Durelin is actually a baddie... in that case we'll all survive, but you would have wasted your vote.

The options right now for you and I are either Durelin or Lhuna, and if I were you I'd discuss things about those two rather than talking about voting for me. Hell, you can even think I'm a baddie for all I care, the truth of the matter is, you cannot get me lynched any way.

Farael · 11-04-2006, 02:37 PM

Well, I have to go and I don't know if I'll be back in time to cast any votes... thus the question is. Do I trust Rikae?

It's quite problematic, because I am not sold on her innocense.... but then, I'm not sold on her guilt either.

On the other hand, I know that at least ONE baddie voted already. I'm innocent, even if Rikae won't believe it.

I don't know what to do, should I vote for Durelin and end it now? should I vote for Lhuna and let Rikae decide? what if Rikae is a baddie? and on the other hand, what if Durelin is?

The only way both baddies would vote before any other vote had been casted is if, indeed, they had timezone problems, which is the case for both Lhuna AND Mac...

Well, I can't decide thus there's only one thing to do.

I will not vote. I have to go NOW and I can't make up my mind. Thus Durelin is as good as dead, and we'll see how the game ends.

11-04-2006, 12:19 PM	#4
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	This is a tough one... I don't have a lot of time and yet I don't really think Durelin is all that guilty. Problem is, I'm not sure Lhuna is either, but if I vote for a third option Durelin will be lynched for sure. I guess I'll hold on to my vote, let's see if Rikae shows up... Ugh, if there's one horrible thing about playing Werewolf against people you've PM'd with is that I just can't get myself to mistrust Lhuna... and yet, the fact that she is such a nice gal may be the reason why she's reticient to kill me. After all, if both her and Mac had voted for me, odds are I would have gotten lynched... and at the same time, why not? would Lhuna let her friendlyness affect her judgement that much? and would Mac, her lover (if that scenario is correct at all) let that happen as well? And what if Durelin is trying to put the wool over our eyes? what if she IS actually guilty? __________________ I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

11-04-2006, 01:27 PM	#5
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Oh, boy. I'm almost sure now that Farael is guilty. I was very suspicious of him yesterday, and then innocent Valier warned us against him. If I'm right, his lover knew that he would be a likely candidate for today's lynching, unless she came up with a clever diversion (I say she because Mac seems very innocent). What could be better than appearing to suspect him, pinpointing someone else as his lover, and then voting for that someone else? If Lhuna suspected Farael so strongly, shouldn't she vote for him? Her reasoning in voting for Durelin is completely convoluted, as well: first she argues that Farael seems guilty, than says Durelin is probably his lover; than that because Durelin voted for him, she definitely isn't his lover (not necessarily true, especially when Farael wasn't in much danger at that point), and then votes for Durelin! Does anyone else think this makes absolutely no sense? My vote most likely will be for Farael. Maybe Lhuna's initial points (which could have been a ruse to distract us) are right, and his lover is Durelin - or maybe my suspicions are right, and his lover is Lhuna. Either way, we win. I would also like to say that it seems unlikely, at this point, that we have a female-female pair. Remember, Di said she might have same sex pairs, but the three that have died so far have all been male-female. This would have been by chance alone; the odds that the oonly same-sex pair would also be the last to survive are 25% those that they would have died already and since they didn't, they don't exist, 75%. It's not impossible, but I'm going with the best odds. Last edited by Rikae; 11-04-2006 at 01:29 PM. Reason: bold lettering on names

11-04-2006, 01:56 PM	#6
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	Rikae, if you vote for me, you die... unless you are a werebear or her lover... but then, if you were, why not vote for whoever is innocent of Lhuna or Durelin? one moment... you DO need me to vote for Lhuna before you can vote for her and kill us all, if you are indeed a baddie. Mind you, I say that if you vote for me you die, unless Durelin is actually a baddie... in that case we'll all survive, but you would have wasted your vote. The options right now for you and I are either Durelin or Lhuna, and if I were you I'd discuss things about those two rather than talking about voting for me. Hell, you can even think I'm a baddie for all I care, the truth of the matter is, you cannot get me lynched any way. __________________ I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

11-04-2006, 02:37 PM	#7
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	Well, I have to go and I don't know if I'll be back in time to cast any votes... thus the question is. Do I trust Rikae? It's quite problematic, because I am not sold on her innocense.... but then, I'm not sold on her guilt either. On the other hand, I know that at least ONE baddie voted already. I'm innocent, even if Rikae won't believe it. I don't know what to do, should I vote for Durelin and end it now? should I vote for Lhuna and let Rikae decide? what if Rikae is a baddie? and on the other hand, what if Durelin is? The only way both baddies would vote before any other vote had been casted is if, indeed, they had timezone problems, which is the case for both Lhuna AND Mac... Well, I can't decide thus there's only one thing to do. I will not vote. I have to go NOW and I can't make up my mind. Thus Durelin is as good as dead, and we'll see how the game ends. __________________ I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

11-04-2006, 07:38 AM	#1
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	So.. Kath is dead. Can't say I'm very surprised after all. The way she missed the first day pretty much gave away that she was an innocent. I mean, if she was otherwise, she would have pmed her lover or the mod, and either one would have told her to get into the fray - and quick! I was her main suspect by a wide margin. There was her suspicion of me and Farael being a couple and her saying that I and Lhuna are not. I think Kath made a very fine safe pick for the bear and his/her lover. Kinda fits in with the previous kills of Kitanna and Jenny, though we don't know whether they in fact had a solid suspicion about Jenny. Rereading the last day made me a little suspicious of Farael again, and kept my suspicion of Durelin alive. I only had time to have a really close look at Farael (which might now look pretty useless after Lhuna's detailed analysis, but anyway). I hope I can manage a short analysis of Durelin later. Farael is bold. That's nothing new and it's of course not suspicious in itself. But there are some specifics about his boldness that I think are weird. - There's his argument against Rikae in #132. Just like Rikae immediateley points out, it makes no sense. - he says he likes Kath's analysis of me, finds Rikae and Valier suspicious and thinks we should have a close look at the silent ones (Durelin and Valier). With the exception of Lhuna and Kath this covers everyone. - his counterattack on Valier in #145 was quite aggressive, but I'll let it pass. What wonders me more is that he praises himself with his correct suspicions. In this particular game, that means nothing! (as Nogrod taught us some games ago, it never does, in fact) I understand he's happy that he's right, but come on... - then in #160 he points out he's been playing the same way since three games. I think I couldn't play two days in a row the same way even if I tried. - why does he point out that he would never notice if Lhuna is evil? Even if it's true, why did he point it out? No offense intended, but I would hate, I would loathe to lose against someone who is so outspoken about his own innocence and this since the very first day. It would make us all look pretty stupid. I know this is no argument at any rate, but I just had to say it. I'll be back later to vote, and hopefully to have a closer look at Durelin.

11-04-2006, 10:59 AM	#2
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	What? Nobody else has posted in all that time?? I have to vote and I can't put as much reason into it as I liked to. ++Durelin, again The other possibility would be voting Farael, since I find Rikae rather innocentish and Lhuna very helpful and well-balanced in her arguments. Durelin steered herself very much along the all-female-pair direction, which taken for itself is okay, but she takes it as far as to not looking at me and Farael anymore. Look at the way she was against the Farael-Mac-pair-idea! Since I know I'm not her lover (and no lover at all) I fear that she and Farael might be the last couple, but I'm not absolutely certain.

11-04-2006, 11:48 AM	#3
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	I'd just like to say that you are indeed screwed... And am under the impression the Lhuna and Mac might be our final pair. Just because one is wrong in their suspicions does not make them guilty. I wished to wait to vote, because before it came down to the end, the vote was garnering for people I did not then suspect. I now wish I had gone with Kath's continued suspicion of Mac... I love Lhuna's last post here...she makes a big long analysis of Farael, a favorite among the suspected ones for a long time, and determines that of course I must be his lover...but the fact that I voted for him, at the deadline, means he must innocent. Yes, he simply must. And then she votes for me...where's that nice big long analysis? Mac's post is the same way...he analyzes Farael, and runs off only to come back and just vote for me...no "closer look." Maybe he didn't have the time...just like Lhuna? Everyone has forgotten that on Day One we almost lynched Farael, and yet the people who voted for Menel and swayed the tie are all dead...except for Farael himself. None of them were his lover...otherwise he wouldn't be here. Rikae I can't be nearly as 'certain' about, but I actually agree with Mac's simple reasoning about her just enough... Please, Rikae, Farael...I really really hope you're innocent...and if you are, please help me. I think you two are innocent...if you were here, I might not be so certain, but I think that at least one of you would have been active already today, if one or both of you were not innocent. Still, that doesn't necessarily mean anything... If you aren't innocent...well, help these two lynch me and make a big ninny out of me. Talk about flying under the radar...has Lhuna actually had anyone vote for her? Not as far as I can tell... Ugh, I wish I had paid more attention to her... ++Lhuna