Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXV: All Star Crossed With Nowhere to Go - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Rikae · 11-04-2006, 01:27 PM

Oh, boy. I'm almost sure now that Farael is guilty. I was very suspicious of him yesterday, and then innocent Valier warned us against him. If I'm right, his lover knew that he would be a likely candidate for today's lynching, unless she came up with a clever diversion (I say she because Mac seems very innocent). What could be better than appearing to suspect him, pinpointing someone else as his lover, and then voting for that someone else? If Lhuna suspected Farael so strongly, shouldn't she vote for him? Her reasoning in voting for Durelin is completely convoluted, as well: first she argues that Farael seems guilty, than says Durelin is probably his lover; than that because Durelin voted for him, she definitely isn't his lover (not necessarily true, especially when Farael wasn't in much danger at that point), and then votes for Durelin! Does anyone else think this makes absolutely no sense?
My vote most likely will be for Farael. Maybe Lhuna's initial points (which could have been a ruse to distract us) are right, and his lover is Durelin - or maybe my suspicions are right, and his lover is Lhuna. Either way, we win.
I would also like to say that it seems unlikely, at this point, that we have a female-female pair. Remember, Di said she might have same sex pairs, but the three that have died so far have all been male-female. This would have been by chance alone; the odds that the oonly same-sex pair would also be the last to survive are 25% those that they would have died already and since they didn't, they don't exist, 75%. It's not impossible, but I'm going with the best odds.

Farael · 11-04-2006, 01:56 PM

Rikae, if you vote for me, you die... unless you are a werebear or her lover... but then, if you were, why not vote for whoever is innocent of Lhuna or Durelin? one moment... you DO need me to vote for Lhuna before you can vote for her and kill us all, if you are indeed a baddie.

Mind you, I say that if you vote for me you die, unless Durelin is actually a baddie... in that case we'll all survive, but you would have wasted your vote.

The options right now for you and I are either Durelin or Lhuna, and if I were you I'd discuss things about those two rather than talking about voting for me. Hell, you can even think I'm a baddie for all I care, the truth of the matter is, you cannot get me lynched any way.

Farael · 11-04-2006, 02:37 PM

Well, I have to go and I don't know if I'll be back in time to cast any votes... thus the question is. Do I trust Rikae?

It's quite problematic, because I am not sold on her innocense.... but then, I'm not sold on her guilt either.

On the other hand, I know that at least ONE baddie voted already. I'm innocent, even if Rikae won't believe it.

I don't know what to do, should I vote for Durelin and end it now? should I vote for Lhuna and let Rikae decide? what if Rikae is a baddie? and on the other hand, what if Durelin is?

The only way both baddies would vote before any other vote had been casted is if, indeed, they had timezone problems, which is the case for both Lhuna AND Mac...

Well, I can't decide thus there's only one thing to do.

I will not vote. I have to go NOW and I can't make up my mind. Thus Durelin is as good as dead, and we'll see how the game ends.

Durelin · 11-04-2006, 02:52 PM

Inaction is the WORST choice right now.

Thank you, Farael, for sealing the loss.

Might as well just vote for me, Rikae.

Farael - Don't you think Rikae would have already voted and sealed my fate if she were evil? I now am practically certain you two are innocent...otherwise you would have voted to seal my fate...there's no reason for any werecreature or lover to wait to vote now. You are innocent, and I am innocent, and we can take these two out still...

Either way, you're afraid we're going to lose. Do something, and maybe we might win.

I hope you come back before this is through...

Rikae · 11-04-2006, 03:11 PM

Farael, I had to go reread the rules. I see there are no retractions. This changes everything, since you're my top suspect.
I don't understand why Mac and Lhuna both expressed suspicion of you, and then voted for someone else.
Mac voted for Durelin...they couldn't be lovers, right? One vote among five players carries too much weight to trifle with it. It would be a very risky bluff, especially since it was the second vote.
I'm very uncertain about both Lhuna and Durelin. Of the two, Lhuna seems more suspicious, especially because of the strange way she arrived at her vote for Durelin. It just doesn't seem entirely honest.
I suppose I'll have to vote for ++Lhuna.
Of course, Farael, if she's your lover than you've already won, since one vote for Durelin will lynch her.
If you are actually innocent, Farael, choose wisely - it's up to you.

Durelin · 11-04-2006, 03:23 PM

I don't think Farael will be back. Thank you for trying to help, though, Rikae.

But if he does come back...come on, Farael! Whether or not you're innocent, I never voted for you except in a last minute attempt to save our Ranger. The least you can do is help save me.

Macalaure · 11-04-2006, 07:14 PM

I didn't think I could manage to, but now I'm here until the deadline.

Farael was my main suspect at the beginning of the day, but I already finished my analysis of him when I saw Lhuna has made one. Then I wanted to do one on Durelin, but didn't have the time.

Why the heck didn't Farael vote?

Anyway, I see the following possibilities:

Since nobody gave Durelin her third vote it can only mean that
a) Lhuna and I are the lovers (which I know is not the case, but just for completeness' sake)
b) Durelin is evil

The question is: who is her lover?
It can't be Lhuna, because Durelin voted her.
So it could be me, Rikae or Farael.

If it's Farael, then it's over. He will return and vote Lhuna, then. If it is not him, then the fate of the village now lies in his hands, should he return.

11-04-2006, 01:27 PM	#1
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Oh, boy. I'm almost sure now that Farael is guilty. I was very suspicious of him yesterday, and then innocent Valier warned us against him. If I'm right, his lover knew that he would be a likely candidate for today's lynching, unless she came up with a clever diversion (I say she because Mac seems very innocent). What could be better than appearing to suspect him, pinpointing someone else as his lover, and then voting for that someone else? If Lhuna suspected Farael so strongly, shouldn't she vote for him? Her reasoning in voting for Durelin is completely convoluted, as well: first she argues that Farael seems guilty, than says Durelin is probably his lover; than that because Durelin voted for him, she definitely isn't his lover (not necessarily true, especially when Farael wasn't in much danger at that point), and then votes for Durelin! Does anyone else think this makes absolutely no sense? My vote most likely will be for Farael. Maybe Lhuna's initial points (which could have been a ruse to distract us) are right, and his lover is Durelin - or maybe my suspicions are right, and his lover is Lhuna. Either way, we win. I would also like to say that it seems unlikely, at this point, that we have a female-female pair. Remember, Di said she might have same sex pairs, but the three that have died so far have all been male-female. This would have been by chance alone; the odds that the oonly same-sex pair would also be the last to survive are 25% those that they would have died already and since they didn't, they don't exist, 75%. It's not impossible, but I'm going with the best odds. Last edited by Rikae; 11-04-2006 at 01:29 PM. Reason: bold lettering on names

11-04-2006, 01:56 PM	#2
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	Rikae, if you vote for me, you die... unless you are a werebear or her lover... but then, if you were, why not vote for whoever is innocent of Lhuna or Durelin? one moment... you DO need me to vote for Lhuna before you can vote for her and kill us all, if you are indeed a baddie. Mind you, I say that if you vote for me you die, unless Durelin is actually a baddie... in that case we'll all survive, but you would have wasted your vote. The options right now for you and I are either Durelin or Lhuna, and if I were you I'd discuss things about those two rather than talking about voting for me. Hell, you can even think I'm a baddie for all I care, the truth of the matter is, you cannot get me lynched any way. __________________ I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

11-04-2006, 02:37 PM	#3
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	Well, I have to go and I don't know if I'll be back in time to cast any votes... thus the question is. Do I trust Rikae? It's quite problematic, because I am not sold on her innocense.... but then, I'm not sold on her guilt either. On the other hand, I know that at least ONE baddie voted already. I'm innocent, even if Rikae won't believe it. I don't know what to do, should I vote for Durelin and end it now? should I vote for Lhuna and let Rikae decide? what if Rikae is a baddie? and on the other hand, what if Durelin is? The only way both baddies would vote before any other vote had been casted is if, indeed, they had timezone problems, which is the case for both Lhuna AND Mac... Well, I can't decide thus there's only one thing to do. I will not vote. I have to go NOW and I can't make up my mind. Thus Durelin is as good as dead, and we'll see how the game ends. __________________ I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

11-04-2006, 03:11 PM	#5
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Farael, I had to go reread the rules. I see there are no retractions. This changes everything, since you're my top suspect. I don't understand why Mac and Lhuna both expressed suspicion of you, and then voted for someone else. Mac voted for Durelin...they couldn't be lovers, right? One vote among five players carries too much weight to trifle with it. It would be a very risky bluff, especially since it was the second vote. I'm very uncertain about both Lhuna and Durelin. Of the two, Lhuna seems more suspicious, especially because of the strange way she arrived at her vote for Durelin. It just doesn't seem entirely honest. I suppose I'll have to vote for ++Lhuna. Of course, Farael, if she's your lover than you've already won, since one vote for Durelin will lynch her. If you are actually innocent, Farael, choose wisely - it's up to you. Last edited by Rikae; 11-04-2006 at 03:13 PM. Reason: spacing, for clarity

11-04-2006, 02:52 PM	#4
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	Inaction is the WORST choice right now. Thank you, Farael, for sealing the loss. Might as well just vote for me, Rikae. Farael - Don't you think Rikae would have already voted and sealed my fate if she were evil? I now am practically certain you two are innocent...otherwise you would have voted to seal my fate...there's no reason for any werecreature or lover to wait to vote now. You are innocent, and I am innocent, and we can take these two out still... Either way, you're afraid we're going to lose. Do something, and maybe we might win. I hope you come back before this is through...

11-04-2006, 03:23 PM	#6
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	I don't think Farael will be back. Thank you for trying to help, though, Rikae. But if he does come back...come on, Farael! Whether or not you're innocent, I never voted for you except in a last minute attempt to save our Ranger. The least you can do is help save me.

11-04-2006, 07:14 PM	#7
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	I didn't think I could manage to, but now I'm here until the deadline. Farael was my main suspect at the beginning of the day, but I already finished my analysis of him when I saw Lhuna has made one. Then I wanted to do one on Durelin, but didn't have the time. Why the heck didn't Farael vote? Anyway, I see the following possibilities: Since nobody gave Durelin her third vote it can only mean that a) Lhuna and I are the lovers (which I know is not the case, but just for completeness' sake) b) Durelin is evil The question is: who is her lover? It can't be Lhuna, because Durelin voted her. So it could be me, Rikae or Farael. If it's Farael, then it's over. He will return and vote Lhuna, then. If it is not him, then the fate of the village now lies in his hands, should he return.