WWJ XIII: 'Til Death Do We LARP

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Valier

This now makes me think Rune must have thought Naria innocent and CoD wolvish....why would Rune push to kill someone he was trying to help, he is on the bad team remember, and why say CoD is innocent unless he thought he could be a wolf?

Why would the wolves kill someone who thought CoD to be innocent if CoD is a wolf? Maybe to make it look like CoD is innocent? But why would they feel the need to? And you make the assumption that Rune had any idea who the wolves were. He knows no more than the rest of us do. I mean, actually it’s quite probably that he thought CoD was a wolf and Naria innocent, and so thought he was helping the wolves, but that doesn’t explain why the wolves killed him.

I find Lommy’s reasoning a little more sound. And Boromir’s point only makes me feel more certain that it is. There is a pattern in the wolf killings (even though we only have two to go on, which I think is quite enough for there to be a pattern when it comes to human or wolfish thought-processes): the killing of the quiet ones. I think another reason they might do this, in addition to Boro’s observation, is to try and get rid of the Seer as soon as possible, and there’s always a good chance that he/she is going to lie low.

Was it Rune’s comment about Naria that caught the wolves eyes? Or was it something else he pointed out?

I hope Naria will post today and help me decide one way or the other. Her vote yesterday, though it was hasty and unexplained for understandable reasons, still does not sit right with me. CoD certainly isn’t someone I’m sure about, but what I feel like could be taken from Naria’s vote is an attempt to remain appearing consistent simply for the sake of appearing consistent, and that bothers me.

Valier’s comment worries me a little, too. The reasoning there is a little faulty in my opinion, and I find it odd that she might risk twisting Rune’s death in the opposite direction that Lommy did just the post before. Odd, kind of reactionary.

Hopefully Volo will be back toDay.

Originally Posted by Boro

Naria had not voted for CoD or Anguirel. Though I see what you mean. Even if Naria's inactivity is due to a bad flu, I will get to her (and everyone) in a bit.

Ah, I’m sorry. Though, Naria did say she was leaning towards voting for CoD. I’m not sure why, but this calms my suspicions of you a bit.

[Nogrod]

The retired general is going to retire for some sleep now.

But if any one of you has extra time I think looking at the following things might be of help to us:
- The "safe votes" with regards to what we know now and about the innocence or "guilt" of the people involved.
- The trust / suspect relations between people voiced in the game so far. The wolves would like to make friends with the villagers they think might suspect them in a strong way and accuse those they believe would not do that... surely considerations in situ (on situatiation) should be noted.
- Pondering about the possible activeness / staying in the "shadowness" of the wolves. Meaning whether Lommy is right about Rune's death (the wolves feared "Rune the Seer" had got one of them) or if Boro is right (they confidently killed yet another quiet one to make the loud ones to go for each other, themselves grinning in the background).

PS. Boro being right with this fact does not mean he is innocent, quite on the contrary... it might point him being the one who came up with this tactics in the first place.

And Lommy might also be seen as revealing the tactics of the wolves just to look good and still being vague enough not to reveal anything of importance...

As I said before: with the Nightly killing record we have I'm not going to trust anyone for a while... There is at least one very crafty wolf involved here.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Valier’s comment worries me a little, too. The reasoning there is a little faulty in my opinion, and I find it odd that she might risk twisting Rune’s death in the opposite direction that Lommy did just the post before. Odd, kind of reactionary

Actually I crossposted with Lommy, so I did not see her views before I posted. what do you think is faulty about my comment? it is just my opinion, I am just trying to figure out what Rune was up to, if anything. I believe that he may have put out false Seer hints to try and get the Seer to come out, if not why even bother saying something so Seeresque? He must have known that either the real Seer would come out and call him a liar or that they wouldn't and he can confuse us all before he was killed by the wolves...

[Farael]

Warning: this is a really long post... but it might just be worth it to actually read it

Edit: Sorry guys, I messed up my links... I hope they all work fine, I don't have time to fix it.

Post 3
First post of the game… from scratch he claims that

Originally Posted by CoD

So, I will surely have to wait and allow my superior intellect to grant me insight that the rest of you...commoners...could never obtain.

Is that a Seer hint on the first post of the game? A Seer will probably not do it, an ordo trying to protect the Seer wouldn’t either… since the wolves haven’t even had a chance to get a feel for the true seer. What does that leave us with?
http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496925&postcount=13
]Post 13[/URL]
Says that being evil does not mean being a wolf, and claims that maybe we should all keep an eye on me and Durelin. I don’t think that ever happened, at least not by him.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496944&postcount=18]Post 18[/URL]

Originally Posted by Loomy

#3 CaptainofDespair is a bit odd. I mean, when Farael (jokingly, or that's how I understood it, though you never know of him) accused Durelin calling her "evil Durelin" and proposing to lynch her, CaptainofDespair says:

To me, this sounds a wolfish (yet not very clever) tactic to get the accusations away from Durelin. According to my experience, there are two situations when one may defend a fellow villager like this: when the person is an over-reacting wolf and tries to get the accusations away from his/her partner or when the person in question thinks he/she has a good joke to answer the accusation with (which was not the case, in my opinion, or else I don't get CoD's sense of humour). So I'm inclined to believe the clumsy wolf-tactics, but I know nothing of CoD's playing records or ww experience, so it's difficult to say. So maybe I'm just overreacting, but that just caught my eye.

So, Loomy is calling CoD on somewhat flimsy grounds, but she has a point that maybe he was deflecting accusations off Durelin. He did say that we should keep an eye on her (and me) but he never DID keep an eye on us, so I’m starting to think he tried a concealed defence of Durelin and then tried to distance from her, just in case.

Well, I promised to make a comprehensive analysis on CoD so I have to try and add everything for your sake. That includes the Following (rather innocuous I think) comment.

Originally Posted by Anguirel on post 20 (no link, not really worth it IMO)

I can't stay long, but I thought CoD was quite funny...

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496958&postcount=22]Post 22[/URL]
By Loomy again

Good that you said that. Maybe it was intended as a funny joke instead of a defense.

But it might have been a clumsy defense as well, and my vote is based on that possibility:

++CaptainofDespair

Check my first post for longer reasoning

So, we have the first vote for CoD

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496963&postcount=23]Post 23[/URL]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

The drunkard Thinlomien's vote is, I believe, influenced by time and alcohol more than any nefarious reason - though it could be a way of staying out of the spotlight as a werewolf, I see this as unlikely.

Really interesting… is that a defense? We know Ang was an ordo, I have no idea why he was defending CoD. Perhaps he liked his sense of humour.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496970&postcount=25]Post 25[/URL]

Originally Posted by Boromir

Thinlo...I really am having trouble understanding your logic...

I mean I know it's Day 1 and all, and we all are grasping at straws here. But honestly CoD is one of the most innocent looking people (at least to me). Really he is the only one that has spoken some decent sense to me so far (see above quote), instead of complete bilge. I won't cast my vote for somebody that's been trying to make some sense out of the non-sensical Day 1's.

Well, I don’t see where CoD has talked some decent sense. All he’s done was talk in character and say you all should suspect me and Durelin. Don’t you all agree? By all means, go back through the thread and tell me if I missed something here… the only reason one would have to suspect me and Durelin was our three-post interchange about “Evil Durelin”. Granted, some may see that as suspicious, perhaps CoD is one of those “some” but to say that because he called us on it he’s one of the few actually talking some sense? Other than that, so far he’s only played in character! Boromir that really makes you look bad in my eyes.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496974&postcount=28]Post 28[/URL]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I see why some people wish see CoD innocent, but are you sure you're not misled here? (Well, no one can be sure, but think again).

I'm not referring to the post Lommy based her suspicion. If you look at it more carefully, you will see that after doubting Farel's point over Durelin, CoD thinks we should look closely both of them...

Ah Nogrod… you bring up an interesting point. CoD seems to defend Durelin but then he wants to keep an eye on both of us. Perhaps my theory of a veiled defence and then some distancing “just in case” is not that far off, eh?

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496985&postcount=31]Post 31[/URL]

Originally Posted by Boromir

I disagree. There are 14 people in this troop here....3 of whom who have yet to say something, the chances that at least one of those three actually is a wolf wouldn't be at all unusual.

Yes, the wolves do like to get out there and get the village turning (right now, for me, Nogrod, Anguirel, and CoD would fall under here). However, I wouldn't put it past at least one of the wolves to say very little (if anything at all) on Day 1...while one or both of their buddies go out and get their hands dirtied.

On those three above, I probably won't vote for any of them, today...though Nogrod looks the most dangerous (of the three). His suspicion of CoD looks a little bold for a wolf to make, but with his family history I wouldn't put anything past him. So, I guess you could say I'll be watching Nogrod.

Boromir suspects Nogrod on the basis of his accusation against CoD. He then mellows it down a little bit, but still… he is, again, defending CoD from scrutiny. Anyone else seeing a pattern here?

Now, it gets quite pretty here
http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496990&postcount=32]Post 32[/URL]
The post is fairly long and I don’t want to quote all of it. You have the link right up there if you want to re-read it for yourself.
Nogrod Calls CoD on his seemingly seer-hint on the first post of the game. That’s a good call. He makes pretty much the same points I made about that first post.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496995&postcount=34]Post 34[/URL]

Originally Posted by Rune, the cobbler

I am not convinced about CoD's guilt and I did not pay any atention to his comment when I saw it. . .so I am not going to hunt his head just yet.

Now, Rune did NOT have any insight what so ever about the identity of the wolves. Yet, he does have his instinct, thus odds are that he’ll try to protect whoever seems wolfish, without getting his hands too dirty. I can’t say I’m privy to Rune’s train of thought, but what I CAN say is that to me, it sounds as if he was defending CoD and trying to downplay what might have been a slip-up. Why would he take that risk if he didn’t think CoD was a wolf? After all, we all know that whoever defends someone who turns out lupine will be scrutinized rather closely.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496996&postcount=35]Post 35[/URL]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not saying I'm convinced about CoD's guilt either. It's just the only suspicion that I can ground with some sense. If I'm not able to find any better candidates I will vote for CoD, but happily there's time and I will surely try to do some rewieving of other people later on.

Nothing really bad there… maybe Nogrod toning down his accusation a bit, but that’s not too rare in these situations.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496998&postcount=37]Post 37[/URL]
CoD is STILL talking in character. I must say I do appreciate that, we all forget too readily to RP who we are supposed to be. Well, too late for that, I’m already in a “serious” mood. He defends himself somewhat playfully, and then he says he suspects Thinlomien. Why? He doesn’t say, but we know (from a further comment that’ll be brought up soon) that he does so because she suspected him on the first place. What kind of logic is that? I won’t deny that at times, people that go after you tend to look a bit more suspicious than the rest, but usually you need some other reason before you actually suspect them.


http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497003&postcount=38]Post 38[/URL]
Naria accuses CoD of being the cobbler. A rather likely proposition, that now we see is wrong. Yet, she has a point that CoD has been acting in a rather… strange fashion. She brings up a great point that, by hinting at seerdom, he’ll cast just that tiny bit of doubt in our minds that will most likely stop us from voting for him unless the evidence is clearly condemning. And let’s face it, other than the Seer saying so, there is no condemning evidence.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497007&postcount=39]Post 39[/URL]
Nogrod agrees on the possibility of CoD being the cobbler, and calls Naria on a somewhat confusing notion she brought up.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497012&postcount=40]Post 40[/URL]
CoD claims that Naria’s logic is flawed, and offers a “if I was…” post. I don’t usually like those posts, because the author can claim how he’d act as a wolf and then just act slightly differently. Why should we trust what he says about how he would act as a villain?

Furthermore, he again suspects those that suspect him. He’s changed the focus, no longer claiming to want to keep an eye on me and Durelin but just suspecting the ones that suspect him. Is he trying to intimidate them off his scent? That’s a rather wolfish technique, if you ask me.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497013&postcount=41]Post 41[/URL]
Volo makes the same point I made before. What about me and Durelin?

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497014&postcount=42]Post 42[/URL]
Our aristocrat defends himself by saying that he never suspected us, he just said that we deserved to be looked at. Then he claims that, unlike the ones he suspects, we have not accused him for being on character. Don’t worry CoD I still don’t suspect you for being on character, as you can see I suspect you for a dubious reasoning for suspecting people (specially when, as we’ll see soon, he stops suspecting Loomy once she drops her suspicions of him), for talking a lot and adding little (all this in character stuff is fun, I must admit, but you are not saying a whole lot) and perhaps most importantly, for being over-defensive. So far, all he’s done is defend himself and attack those that suspect him. Not to mention that seer hint…

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497019&postcount=44]Post 44[/URL]
Durelin gives a half-hearted defence of CoD claiming that there always is the possibility of a very misguided innocent. Then she shifts the sights on Ang whom we know now was an ordo.

Anyone else remembers that post where CoD is somewhat defending Durelin although he then distances himself from her by saying that you should keep an eye on her and me? Is that Durelin returning a favour…. Or perhaps is it that the werewolves have agreed on defending each other a little bit if possible?

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497020&postcount=45]Post 45[/URL]
Nogrod offers his views on several villagers and then says that CoD’s calmness speaks on his favour, although he still thinks that there is something wrong about him.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497021&postcount=46]Post 46[/URL]
Boromir says that it’s a pity that CoD mellowed down his ‘accusation’ against Durelin and I because that was the reason he did not suspect him, as he (Boromir) suspects us for our little interaction earlier on the day.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497028&postcount=49]Post 49[/URL]
CoD defends himself again, and defends his first post. He admits that he stopped looking at Durelin and I to defend himself better. Now I wonder, if he was truly on the village side and wanted us ordos to win, what’s the point on defending himself so stubbornly? At some point, you should try to add to the village discussion and prove your worth, rather than claim your worth and spend your time just protecting your own backside. In this case, it might even be a furry backside he’s trying to protect.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497038&postcount=52]Post 52[/URL]
Nogrod clarifies his accusation against CoD and calls him on the fact that CoD was asking for definitive evidence… on Day 1. A rare luxury, eh?.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497042&postcount=53]Post 53[/URL]
CoD goes ahead and votes for Loomy on the basis of her vote for him. This really smells like a retaliatory vote, and that’s bad… furthermore, it’s not like CoD had to vote early and so he had nothing to go on, other than the outrage of being voted at. He voted an hour before the deadline, so there had been plenty of conversation up until then.


http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497043&postcount=54]Post 54[/URL]
Rikae strolls in and votes for CoD on the basis of coblerishness. Sort of a weak post, I wouldn’t make much of it if it wasn’t because… Rikae is dead. Yeah, you could say “oh, it’s too bold a move for CoD to be a wolf” but come on… Rikae’s vote was as unexplained as possible. ANY half-witted werewolf can dance his way out of that situation. And we all know that CoD does not really like people who suspect him, don’t we. Rikae was both an easy target and a CoD voter. Good fit, anyone?


And that’s Day 1…. Let’s move on to the second day.

Here’s a post I find rather interesting.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497160&postcount=79]Post 79[/URL]
Now, this is a little bold for a wolf to do but… Durelin basically suspects and then “unsuspects” both Boromir and CoD. Boromir has defended CoD before, CoD has defended Durelin and Durelin has also defended CoD… interesting group of three villagers, eh? What? You mean that there is another group of three? A group that we are all looking for? Go figure…

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497164&postcount=81]Post 81[/URL]
CoD expresses his condolences about the death of Ang and proposes a rather far-fetched theory of why the wolves would kill Rikae. Says that he suspects Durelin. I think that it’s unlikely that the group of three I just mentioned are all wolves, as they seem to be fairly at each other’s throats, but they might just be taking a “high risk, high reward” approach.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497171&postcount=84]Post 84[/URL]
Durelin asks Boro and CoD to lay off her a bit. She might be an ordo after all, but I’m not so sure about the CoD and Boro tandem. She’s not off the hook, but as I mentioned right above, it might be a bit too risky an approach for a group of wolves to be all at each other’s throat.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497207&postcount=91]Post 91[/URL]
Loomy calls Cod on his “retaliatory” style of playing. She has a point, it seems that those who suspect CoD are suspected by him, and those who don’t are not. Will I be suspected now?

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497252&postcount=100]Post 100[/URL]
Nogrod says that CoD had looked less suspicious at first, but agrees with Loomy that his reasons for suspecting (and not suspecting) people are rather weak.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497266&postcount=104]Post 104[/URL]
Naria casts an unexplained vote for CoD

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497271&postcount=106]Post 106[/URL]
Loomy makes her point again of CoD’s flawed logic and his attempt (whether accidental or not) at a seer hint.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497276&postcount=110]Post 110[/URL]
CobleRune talks about his hunches…. Since he’s the cobbler, we should revert them, as odds are he’ll claim whoever he thinks is an ordo to be a wolf and vice-versa. Now, I am not saying he had any insider’s knowledge, all I’m saying is that he says that he thinks CoD is an ordo, thus he probably thinks he’s actually a wolf.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497277&postcount=111]Post 111[/URL]
CoD does not like Naria’s vote. Granted, it’s not explained what so ever… but she did vote for him of all people, and now it seems that he suspects her.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497281&postcount=113]Post 113[/URL]
Nogrod calls CoD again on his method of suspecting those that suspect him.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497285&postcount=115]Post 115[/URL]
Valier calls CoD on his constant flip-flopping of whom he suspects.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497289&postcount=118]Post 118[/URL]
CoD defends himself from Valier’s comments and votes for Naria on the basis of… the two times she has accused him although the second time it had no reasoning behind it, which is a valid point. Yet, he (again) seems to be casting a retaliatory vote. On Day 2?! I don’t like them on Day 1, but now it’s just getting bad.

And that’s the end of Day 2.

Day 3 is upon us, I think that I’ll let you read through it and make your own decisions.

But, my thoughts on Day 3.

Valier has a point. One could say that Loomy’s point of view would be more correct, but there is one problem. More often than not, wolves will not kill someone who has just accused them if they think that person is the Seer. If Rune had turned out to be the seer, I would think that the wolves would have avoided killing him right there and then, because it would have meant the death of a wolvish Naria

Therefore I think that the wolves killed Rune because of his relative silence, and possibly to frame Naria as a side-effect. I don’t think they would have killed him if Naria was a wolf, because as I just said, that’d mean the death of Naria

By the way, Durelin, Boro and CoD keep on interacting… see post 142 by Durelin

[Boromir88]

I have gone through Rune's posts. There are a few possibilities running through my head.

1) The wolves killed Rune to confuse us even further and continue us spiralling in circles. It may have worked better than they intended as it just so happens they kill the cobbler...so exactly how much info can we get out of Rune's posts?

2) The wolves as Lommy points out believed Rune was the seer and this would put a mark on Naria and Volo...as those seem to be the two people he 'suspected' the most. This begs the again, just exactly how much reliablity can we put in Rune's 'suspicions?'

I'm growing wary of Lommy over there whom is pushing the wolves must have believed Rune was the seer, and claims she knows exactly why he was killed...because of his comments. This rings some alarms in my head. Such narrow-minded thinking into believing only one 'right answer' is dangerous. If you are innocent, you should open your mind a bit.

I don't think I can get anything clarified further until I see something from Naria.

Edit: x-posted with Farael

[Diamond18]

This is how I see it:

Wolves seldom bluff quite as diabolically as Villagers think they do. The Wolves want to kill the seer, why would they waste their time killing Rune if they didn't think he was the seer? Sure, it could be a plot to make CoD look good and Naria look bad, but we won't know for sure unless we kill one of them.

I'm leaning towards killing Naria.

1. It makes the most sense, to me, that the wolves smelled a seer in Rune and they killed him.
2. CoD has been more active.

Now, as I said yesterDay, I know she has the flu. But this isn't really a good reason not to vote for her. In fact, it's a good reason, as we KNOW Naria will not be playing, participating, or thinking to the best of her abilities. We're not going to get the answers and contributions from her that we might normally expect. Frankly, if I had a bad flu I'd rather die than have to drag myself to the computer to mess around with werewolf. And just because she's sick doesn't mean she's not a wolf, ergo it's no good as an alibi. Sure, it explains why she's absent, but it doesn't have any bearing on what role she was assigned at the beginning.

If you don't want to kill Naria, then kill CoD, and we can put this Rune business to rest. That's what I think, anyway.

[Diamond18]

Therefore I think that the wolves killed Rune because of his relative silence, and possibly to frame Naria as a side-effect. I don’t think they would have killed him if Naria was a wolf, because as I just said, that’d mean the death of Naria

I think this is flawed logic. If Rune was the seer and knew about Naria, she was already a lost cause. The other two wolves wouuld be more concerned about saving their own skins by preventing Rune from dreaming any further, than they would be about protecting a Naria who was likely already doomed. Consider, from the wolves' point of view -- if Rune the Seer was allowed to continue speaking he would likely continue going after Naria (maybe even reveal and seal the deal) and every night he was allowed to dream he could potentially discover more wolves. The seer must die, even if it means sacrificing one wolf out of three.

And consider now our current discussions. We're debating whether or not Naria is a wolf. This is better for the wolves than having a seer around who can just outright say "Naria is a wolf, end of story, lynch her."

Now, I'm not saying I know this to be true. But I think the logic is good. What is logical and what is true is not always the same in Werewolf, but as I don't know any truths about the wolves and what they're thinking, I can only go by what I think is the most logical.

[CaptainofDespair]

*sighs*

Farael, I'm not going to answer your ridiculous post point by point, as there is no...well...point. I will say one thing, however. You, and quite a few others, have taken my first posts way out of context. And, those posts are the basis for nearly every accusation against me. I was simply playing around in character, as I was quite amused by being a Pompous Nobleman.

And further, I will not respond to any more accusations that stem from my in-character posting. It is simply far too silly to have questions of wolf-dom/cobbler-dom simply because I felt inclined to post as the character I chose to be.

If I was not so adamant about lynching Naria today, I would certainly be looking into you.

And on to that, I am inclined to agree with Diamond that we could lynch Naria on being absent. And since I believe her to be a wolf, I agree all the more.

I stand quite firm on my desire to vote for Naria. Although it is unlikely I will be steered from that course, I will not vote until later tomorrow.