WWJ XIII: 'Til Death Do We LARP

[Diamond18]

Therefore I think that the wolves killed Rune because of his relative silence, and possibly to frame Naria as a side-effect. I don’t think they would have killed him if Naria was a wolf, because as I just said, that’d mean the death of Naria

I think this is flawed logic. If Rune was the seer and knew about Naria, she was already a lost cause. The other two wolves wouuld be more concerned about saving their own skins by preventing Rune from dreaming any further, than they would be about protecting a Naria who was likely already doomed. Consider, from the wolves' point of view -- if Rune the Seer was allowed to continue speaking he would likely continue going after Naria (maybe even reveal and seal the deal) and every night he was allowed to dream he could potentially discover more wolves. The seer must die, even if it means sacrificing one wolf out of three.

And consider now our current discussions. We're debating whether or not Naria is a wolf. This is better for the wolves than having a seer around who can just outright say "Naria is a wolf, end of story, lynch her."

Now, I'm not saying I know this to be true. But I think the logic is good. What is logical and what is true is not always the same in Werewolf, but as I don't know any truths about the wolves and what they're thinking, I can only go by what I think is the most logical.

[CaptainofDespair]

*sighs*

Farael, I'm not going to answer your ridiculous post point by point, as there is no...well...point. I will say one thing, however. You, and quite a few others, have taken my first posts way out of context. And, those posts are the basis for nearly every accusation against me. I was simply playing around in character, as I was quite amused by being a Pompous Nobleman.

And further, I will not respond to any more accusations that stem from my in-character posting. It is simply far too silly to have questions of wolf-dom/cobbler-dom simply because I felt inclined to post as the character I chose to be.

If I was not so adamant about lynching Naria today, I would certainly be looking into you.

And on to that, I am inclined to agree with Diamond that we could lynch Naria on being absent. And since I believe her to be a wolf, I agree all the more.

I stand quite firm on my desire to vote for Naria. Although it is unlikely I will be steered from that course, I will not vote until later tomorrow.

[Durelin]

I'm sorry, Valier, if I might have touched a nerve.

Originally Posted by Valier

I believe that he may have put out false Seer hints to try and get the Seer to come out, if not why even bother saying something so Seeresque?

That is quite possible...that wasn't what I was addressing. The real issue is why he was killed, not what he was trying to do. If he was killed because the wolves thought he was the Seer, it is possible that he was actually correct in his suspicions, obviously to his dismay and downfall. Yes, your option is possible, but the only real reason you cited for it being possible were that Rune, as the Cobbler, wanted to help the wolves. Thus, your reasoning is illogical, even if your conclusion is possible. And I do apologize for the accusation of being "reactionary."

Originally Posted by Di

If you don't want to kill Naria, then kill CoD, and we can put this Rune business to rest. That's what I think, anyway.

I think lynching one of these two is an excellent idea, as I think we have a good chance of finding a wolf in one of them. And I know I will never be able to get this "Rune business" out of my head until it is settled. I would be up for lynching either one.

By the way, Durelin, Boro and CoD keep on interacting… see post 142 by Durelin

Interacting? In the post you cite, I am actually interacting with Valier, remarking on her ideas regarding why Rune was lynched. I was asking questions that involved CoD because frankly, the best way to help expand an idea is to ask questions...and it's the best way to figure something out if you don't completely understand something. And I responded again to Boro's explanation...how shocking. I at least wanted to let him know I had seen it and understood it. I'm sorry, but your accusation seems based largely on whose name is in bold in my post, and that bothers me.

[Farael]

Sorry for the double-post folks, I somehow managed to miss this.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Interacting? In the post you cite, I am actually interacting with Valier, remarking on her ideas regarding why Rune was lynched. I was asking questions that involved CoD because frankly, the best way to help expand an idea is to ask questions...and it's the best way to figure something out if you don't completely understand something. And I responded again to Boro's explanation...how shocking. I at least wanted to let him know I had seen it and understood it. I'm sorry, but your accusation seems based largely on whose name is in bold in my post, and that bothers me.

Well, Durelin have you taken the time to read through my seemingly endless post? I found what I believe to be a pattern. I'll be the first one to say it's an unlikely one, but still it does seem to be a consistent trend. You three have been accusing, forgiving, defending and distancing from each other. Maybe you are not all wolves, but I'm fairly sure one of you at the very least is. Possibly even two.

[Boromir88]

I don't know if Valier's reasoning is all that illogical. I think it's possible the wolves believed Rune was actually the cobbler, they saw his duty done so they killed him. Now why would wolves want to kill their ally?

Well as we all know the Cobbler doesn't know who the wolves are, and the wolves don't know who the Cobbler is. However, the Cobbler's duty is to stir as much confusion as possible. As Rune I think has certainly done this, because of the wolves choice.

I have memoirs from ancestors who were cursed, and they talk about actually killing a person they suspected to be the Cobbler. Since the Cobbler is trying to sew as much disorder and confusion as possible, and killing the Cobbler would do just that. As we don't know what we can take from the Cobbler's death. The wolves can effectively use a Cobbler by not only keeping him alive but actually killing him.

I don't know if lynching Naria or CoD would be the best thing either. As I have yet to see why either of them our wolves. Grant it, I think it would clear away this Rune thing, if neither of them are wolves what good does that do? We can't fiddle around much longer and keep on making these mistakes just so we can put to rest this 'Rune conversation.' If I can see a reasoning (which I will be looking at both of them) that one (or even both) are wolves, than let's do it. But, I'm not too fond of this idea...'let's just lynch one of them so we can figure out what the wolves were planning when they killed Rune.' We don't got a lot of room for error left.

I may just go back to my first night vote for Farael...he seems a bit hasty here. Perhaps for real life reasons he wasn't active for the first couple days. Then yesterday he comes in too late to vote. He's sure making his presence known today.

What I mean by he seems hasty, is first off I don't understand this:

More often than not, wolves will not kill someone who has just accused them if they think that person is the Seer. If Rune had turned out to be the seer, I would think that the wolves would have avoided killing him right there and then, because it would have meant the death of a wolvish Naria

I forget who pointed it out, but wolves would gladly make a sacrifice to nab the Seer....especially when the Seer is the only gifted in the village and the wolves have the amount of success they have had so far.

Also, I don't like this Durelin, CoD, and myself trio you've concocted up. How about we focus on just getting one wolf before we start thinking of who his/her partners are? While it's good to look for connections and possible 'partnerships' it's virtually useless until we actually get a wolf to go off of. When we get these groups of 'trios' before even finding one wolf it creates confusion and a mass of possibilities that may not even be true (especially if a wolf is the one making the 'trio'). To me it looks like you're attempting to group people together, attach 'wolf trio' to them, and trying to fool everyone into follow along with you.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I may just go back to my first night vote for Farael...he seems a bit hasty here. Perhaps for real life reasons he wasn't active for the first couple days. Then yesterday he comes in too late to vote. He's sure making his presence known today.

What I mean by he seems hasty, is first off I don't understand this:

I forget who pointed it out, but wolves would gladly make a sacrifice to nab the Seer....especially when the Seer is the only gifted in the village and the wolves have the amount of success they have had so far.

Also, I don't like this Durelin, CoD, and myself trio you've concocted up. How about we focus on just getting one wolf before we start thinking of who his/her partners are? While it's good to look for connections and possible 'partnerships' it's virtually useless until we actually get a wolf to go off of. When we get these groups of 'trios' before even finding one wolf it creates confusion and a mass of possibilities that may not even be true (especially if a wolf is the one making the 'trio'). To me it looks like you're attempting to group people together, attach 'wolf trio' to them, and trying to fool everyone into follow along with you.

My friend, you are free to make your own choices, that's why I took the time to go through, post by post, CoD's comments. I tried to show my reasoning. Flawed? only the wolves, and perhaps the Seer, know it. Does that mean I want people to follow me? well, I think I'm right, thus I do want people to follow me... so I lay out the facts, and I say the way I see them so that perhaps others will see things the same way I do.

Is that a wolfish tactic? I don't think so, after all, you are doing the same. Are you a wolf, Mr. Boromir?

And this "trio" of mine surged from my analysis of CoD it is just a consequence of what I saw happening, and something I thought I'd bring up. After all, none of us ordos knows when he'll be killed, either by lynching or by murdering. I think we are best off speakin as much as we can, when RL does not get in the way. Besides, that way we are much more likely to step on some furry toes. Eventually things will become clear, and I hope that three (game) days from now, someone will look back and say "hey, maybe Farael wasn't that far off... if we add these new facts to what he said on day 3, maybe he was on to something".

Or maybe someone will say "look... Farael said this, the wolves did this and this, which means that it is likely that such and such is a wolf!"

Who knows what may happen? I say we do our best to explain ourselves to the fullest and let others make their own choices. That does not mean toss accusations randomly, but if there is something you think you should bring up, why not? Afraid of getting killed? only the furry ones should be.

[Thinlómien]

I'm growing wary of Lommy over there whom is pushing the wolves must have believed Rune was the seer, and claims she knows exactly why he was killed...because of his comments. This rings some alarms in my head. Such narrow-minded thinking into believing only one 'right answer' is dangerous. If you are innocent, you should open your mind a bit.

Well, when I was asking myself why Rune was killed I remembered that post, checked it and was quite confident I was right since it all fit so "beautifully". I still think I'm right about that, but of course I can't be sure because I can't read the wolves' minds. So, I acknowledge the possibility of me being wrong. I don't deny that the wolves could have killed Rune to frame Naria and make CoD look innocent, but one could think they would be more intent on seer-hunting. In my opinion the seer's their worst threat right now, because they are "winning" since there's 7 innocent people and all the three wolves are still alive. The seer, however, has the potential to turn the situation upside down for our good.

And CoD seems to be continuing his annoying tactic of retaliatory suspicion...

[Valier]

My time is limited today, but I will return a few hours before the deadline. My vote will go to either Naria or CoD. One needs to go, so we can put aside this Rune thing. I am unsure who should go though...I would like to hear more from both.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair

*sighs*

Farael, I'm not going to answer your ridiculous post point by point, as there is no...well...point. I will say one thing, however. You, and quite a few others, have taken my first posts way out of context. And, those posts are the basis for nearly every accusation against me. I was simply playing around in character, as I was quite amused by being a Pompous Nobleman. .

Alright, don't answer the questions raised by your roleplaying... that wasn't the point of my post.

Care to answer about the questions raised by your consistently suspecting those that suspect you, solely on the basis of their suspicions? The way I see it, that has nothing to do with roleplaying and yet it is my biggest problem with your playing so far.

[CaptainofDespair]

Originally Posted by Farael

Alright, don't answer the questions raised by your roleplaying... that wasn't the point of my post.

Care to answer about the questions raised by your consistently suspecting those that suspect you, solely on the basis of their suspicions? The way I see it, that has nothing to do with roleplaying and yet it is my biggest problem with your playing so far.

You really want to know why? Here's why: Because I feel like it.

You really must come to understand that. I am not going to look for 'evidence'. There is none. Everything that you or anyone else comes up with is based on how you feel about certain things (for example, your own feeling, Farael, that there is a connection between Durelin, Boromir, and myself). You have no actual evidence. And you know what, I'm going on feeling as well.

So unless you come up with actual proof I'm a wolf, it's all just about how you feel that's at the core of the matter. And that is how my voting goes. I don't like being suspected, and I don't enjoy having to waste my time defending myself again and again, day after day. So I will vote for those that attack me and hope I can get rid of them. If they back off, so will I.

Either accept it, or don't. I no longer care whether you, or anyone else, does or not.

[Diamond18]

Boro, I'm a little confused about two things in your post.

I don't know if lynching Naria or CoD would be the best thing either. As I have yet to see why either of them our wolves. Grant it, I think it would clear away this Rune thing, if neither of them are wolves what good does that do?

Right now, the best clue about anything that I can see is the connection between Rune's death and Rune's posting, and that points to Naria as a wolf and CoD as an innocent, or vice versa, depending on how you interpret the wolves' kill psychology.

I forget who pointed it out, but wolves would gladly make a sacrifice to nab the Seer....especially when the Seer is the only gifted in the village and the wolves have the amount of success they have had so far.

'Twould be me who made that point. Does this mean you're in agreement that the wolves thought Rune a likely seer? Or wanted us to think they thought Rune a seer? If so, why do you not see why Naria (or CoD) could be a wolf?

At any rate, I'm going to stick with my plan from earlier and go ahead with my vote:

++Naria

[Boromir88]

Right now, the best clue about anything that I can see is the connection between Rune's death and Rune's posting, and that points to Naria as a wolf and CoD as an innocent, or vice versa, depending on how you interpret the wolves' kill psychology.

That all relies on the belief that you think the wolves believed Rune to be the Seer. I don't think so.

My point to objection of lets lynch one of these two to figured out the wolves plan and what they thought about Rune is don't you realize this thinking could spell out the end of us. What is happening today is a focus has gone on two individuals, there are 10 people in this village, which means you are ignoring 8 for today.

This idea just spells out disaster for me. What happens if the wolves are snickering as their plan has worked and we are crying for a lynching of two innoncents? Again we can't make the same mistakes we have done the first two days, and we don't have a lot of room left for error.

Let's say Naria is lynched and she's innocent, what does this prove? Does this prove that CoD is a wolf? No it doesn't, but what do we do?

It's completely possible, I am absolutely wrong here and that one, or even both, are wolves. But this idea of lets lynch one of them today is dangerous...especially if both are innocent. The focus that has gone on these two is dangerous, as you have ignored 80% of the people in this village...which I fear is falling right into the wolves plan.

'Twould be me who made that point. Does this mean you're in agreement that the wolves thought Rune a likely seer? Or wanted us to think they thought Rune a seer? If so, why do you not see why Naria (or CoD) could be a wolf?

No, I don't. I was pointing out that Farael's reasoning of if the wolves believed Rune was the seer, and he had named one of them, they would not have killed him. I was agreeing with the point made that wolves would gladly sacrifice one of their own if they feld they had the seer.

I don't think the wolves thought Rune was the seer. I think they indeed thought he was the Cobbler. Again, a cobbler can be just as effective dead as a live one. Looking at how today's gone so far, I think the wolves plan has gone all too well.

We're focusing on two people, ignoring the rest of the village, and basing our suspicions off of some flimsy reasoning. If I am convinced CoD or Naria is a wolf, I will vote for one of them. But right now I have a big fear the wolves are sitting back snickering as their two victims are in place for a lynch.

[Thinlómien]

A horrible idea just occured to me: what if Noggie and Boro are two of our three remaining wolves?

[Durelin]

It is quite possible that both are innocent, and possible that both are wolves.

But what do you suggest instead, Boro? You say that there are still 80% of us that aren't being looked at. But who of the 80% are you looking at?

I don't think the wolves thought Rune was the seer. I think they indeed thought he was the Cobbler.

Why would they think he was the Cobbler? CoD was looking like the Cobbler, with my pitiful voting record, they could have thought me to be the Cobbler. I thought Gurthang seemed Cobbler-like. Rune looked no more like the cobbler than anyone else. Maybe they did feel that maybe he was the Cobbler, but there's hardly so much reason for that as there is for them to view him either as a possible Seer, or simply as another pretty quiet person they wanted to lynch to continue their pattern, and secure the goal that you cited: leaving the loud ones to go for each others' throats.

Perhaps that was their only plan, though. Maybe the wolves were feeling quite well, taking out one by one the silent types and throwing the village into confusion. As Nogrod has pointed out, their killing pattern suggests that they felt pretty secure. And yet, why didn't they kill Naria or Volo before Rune? Maybe it was a random choice, or maybe it was the fact that no one really suspected Rune. No one was after Volo too much, either, though...and yesterday, though Naria got attention, we were all quite prepared to let her go for the time being.

But Rune's accusations make him stand out: not because of who he accused, but because of how he did it - with seemingly the utmost certainty. I can see why the wolves would be afraid he was the Seer. If the Seer knew for certain who one or two of the wolves were, might they risk being killed if they felt the village was in danger if they waited much longer? I think the wolves, at least, thought it quite possible that the Seer would act in such a way.

I will probably vote for either CoD or Naria, because I really do feel it is the best way to clear things up. If whoever we lynch turns out innocent...well, it will be a more difficult decision tomorrow whether or not to take our chances and lynch the other.

Volo has caught my attention with his really...weird...reasoning. I may end up voting for CoD myself, but I do not understand why he talks about how Nogrod seems innocent (and bases it largely on that other people have assumed him innocent since the start of the game) - but mentions that he doesn't like on of his lists and his vote for Anguirel on Day One - and then discusses how Farael seems innocent as well, only to vote for CoD. Huh? Too bad he seems to have disappeared again. And I suppose I'll have to cut him some slack because he seemed to be in a rush.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I tend to agree with Boro here (no Lommy, it's not that, at least in my case) that the wolves made a good kill as all the discussion has been centered around a couple of people. We shouldn't try to discuss everyone all the time as that would just break off but surely we could spread this discussion a bit!

What bothers me is that both you and Boro are saying we should spread the discussion, and yet neither of you have ventured to share with us who you feel it should be spread to. Those of us who are innocent do not know who should be considered and who shouldn't be, so simply saying we should spread our focus encompasses just about everyone. Being narrow-minded isn't good, I agree, but I had problems with Naria before Rune's death, and we've all had problems with CoD since Day One. If there is someone you feel is quite suspicious, I'd love to hear more ideas.

Edit:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'll promise to give it a try.

Ah, sorry. I look forward to it.

I know there are things I missed, but this post is already too long.

[Durelin]

Another thing I noticed about Volo:

Originally Posted by Volo

Of Farael I'll just say that the long post itself is reassuring and I doubt that most wolves would write something like that, for that I really feel like voting ++CoD.

That was yesterday...

But now he thinks CoD is innocent? Perhaps he was swayed by CoD's vote for Naria.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Boro

2) The wolves as Lommy points out believed Rune was the seer and this would put a mark on Naria and Volo...as those seem to be the two people he 'suspected' the most. This begs the again, just exactly how much reliablity can we put in Rune's 'suspicions?'

Volo, too...but he didn't get nearly so much attention as Naria. Boro was kind enough to bring him up, though...

(These are just general observations which I hope might be helpful...and I'm posting them as I find them, as obnoxious as that might be...)