WWJ XIII: 'Til Death Do We LARP

[Diamond18]

Boro, I'm a little confused about two things in your post.

I don't know if lynching Naria or CoD would be the best thing either. As I have yet to see why either of them our wolves. Grant it, I think it would clear away this Rune thing, if neither of them are wolves what good does that do?

Right now, the best clue about anything that I can see is the connection between Rune's death and Rune's posting, and that points to Naria as a wolf and CoD as an innocent, or vice versa, depending on how you interpret the wolves' kill psychology.

I forget who pointed it out, but wolves would gladly make a sacrifice to nab the Seer....especially when the Seer is the only gifted in the village and the wolves have the amount of success they have had so far.

'Twould be me who made that point. Does this mean you're in agreement that the wolves thought Rune a likely seer? Or wanted us to think they thought Rune a seer? If so, why do you not see why Naria (or CoD) could be a wolf?

At any rate, I'm going to stick with my plan from earlier and go ahead with my vote:

++Naria

[Boromir88]

Right now, the best clue about anything that I can see is the connection between Rune's death and Rune's posting, and that points to Naria as a wolf and CoD as an innocent, or vice versa, depending on how you interpret the wolves' kill psychology.

That all relies on the belief that you think the wolves believed Rune to be the Seer. I don't think so.

My point to objection of lets lynch one of these two to figured out the wolves plan and what they thought about Rune is don't you realize this thinking could spell out the end of us. What is happening today is a focus has gone on two individuals, there are 10 people in this village, which means you are ignoring 8 for today.

This idea just spells out disaster for me. What happens if the wolves are snickering as their plan has worked and we are crying for a lynching of two innoncents? Again we can't make the same mistakes we have done the first two days, and we don't have a lot of room left for error.

Let's say Naria is lynched and she's innocent, what does this prove? Does this prove that CoD is a wolf? No it doesn't, but what do we do?

It's completely possible, I am absolutely wrong here and that one, or even both, are wolves. But this idea of lets lynch one of them today is dangerous...especially if both are innocent. The focus that has gone on these two is dangerous, as you have ignored 80% of the people in this village...which I fear is falling right into the wolves plan.

'Twould be me who made that point. Does this mean you're in agreement that the wolves thought Rune a likely seer? Or wanted us to think they thought Rune a seer? If so, why do you not see why Naria (or CoD) could be a wolf?

No, I don't. I was pointing out that Farael's reasoning of if the wolves believed Rune was the seer, and he had named one of them, they would not have killed him. I was agreeing with the point made that wolves would gladly sacrifice one of their own if they feld they had the seer.

I don't think the wolves thought Rune was the seer. I think they indeed thought he was the Cobbler. Again, a cobbler can be just as effective dead as a live one. Looking at how today's gone so far, I think the wolves plan has gone all too well.

We're focusing on two people, ignoring the rest of the village, and basing our suspicions off of some flimsy reasoning. If I am convinced CoD or Naria is a wolf, I will vote for one of them. But right now I have a big fear the wolves are sitting back snickering as their two victims are in place for a lynch.

[Thinlómien]

A horrible idea just occured to me: what if Noggie and Boro are two of our three remaining wolves?

[Nogrod]

Okay.

We can afford only one bad lynch. Not more. If we lynch an innocent toDay and toMorrow, we're dead all.

And everything surely looks quite confusing for now.

That also means that our Seer should think of the situation and consider the pros and cons of acting out. Surely it's her/his decision and s/he only knows whether it's worth it (is there information or not?).

But if we miss it toDay, then s/he will be our last hope - if alive...


I tend to agree with Boro here (no Lommy, it's not that, at least in my case) that the wolves made a good kill as all the discussion has been centered around a couple of people. We shouldn't try to discuss everyone all the time as that would just break off but surely we could spread this discussion a bit!

I'll promise to give it a try.

[Durelin]

It is quite possible that both are innocent, and possible that both are wolves.

But what do you suggest instead, Boro? You say that there are still 80% of us that aren't being looked at. But who of the 80% are you looking at?

I don't think the wolves thought Rune was the seer. I think they indeed thought he was the Cobbler.

Why would they think he was the Cobbler? CoD was looking like the Cobbler, with my pitiful voting record, they could have thought me to be the Cobbler. I thought Gurthang seemed Cobbler-like. Rune looked no more like the cobbler than anyone else. Maybe they did feel that maybe he was the Cobbler, but there's hardly so much reason for that as there is for them to view him either as a possible Seer, or simply as another pretty quiet person they wanted to lynch to continue their pattern, and secure the goal that you cited: leaving the loud ones to go for each others' throats.

Perhaps that was their only plan, though. Maybe the wolves were feeling quite well, taking out one by one the silent types and throwing the village into confusion. As Nogrod has pointed out, their killing pattern suggests that they felt pretty secure. And yet, why didn't they kill Naria or Volo before Rune? Maybe it was a random choice, or maybe it was the fact that no one really suspected Rune. No one was after Volo too much, either, though...and yesterday, though Naria got attention, we were all quite prepared to let her go for the time being.

But Rune's accusations make him stand out: not because of who he accused, but because of how he did it - with seemingly the utmost certainty. I can see why the wolves would be afraid he was the Seer. If the Seer knew for certain who one or two of the wolves were, might they risk being killed if they felt the village was in danger if they waited much longer? I think the wolves, at least, thought it quite possible that the Seer would act in such a way.

I will probably vote for either CoD or Naria, because I really do feel it is the best way to clear things up. If whoever we lynch turns out innocent...well, it will be a more difficult decision tomorrow whether or not to take our chances and lynch the other.

Volo has caught my attention with his really...weird...reasoning. I may end up voting for CoD myself, but I do not understand why he talks about how Nogrod seems innocent (and bases it largely on that other people have assumed him innocent since the start of the game) - but mentions that he doesn't like on of his lists and his vote for Anguirel on Day One - and then discusses how Farael seems innocent as well, only to vote for CoD. Huh? Too bad he seems to have disappeared again. And I suppose I'll have to cut him some slack because he seemed to be in a rush.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I tend to agree with Boro here (no Lommy, it's not that, at least in my case) that the wolves made a good kill as all the discussion has been centered around a couple of people. We shouldn't try to discuss everyone all the time as that would just break off but surely we could spread this discussion a bit!

What bothers me is that both you and Boro are saying we should spread the discussion, and yet neither of you have ventured to share with us who you feel it should be spread to. Those of us who are innocent do not know who should be considered and who shouldn't be, so simply saying we should spread our focus encompasses just about everyone. Being narrow-minded isn't good, I agree, but I had problems with Naria before Rune's death, and we've all had problems with CoD since Day One. If there is someone you feel is quite suspicious, I'd love to hear more ideas.

Edit:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'll promise to give it a try.

Ah, sorry. I look forward to it.

I know there are things I missed, but this post is already too long.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I know there are things I missed, but this post is already too long.

In this village, I'd rather hear all people have to say regardless of how long posts it will make.

I'm quite confused and clueless at the moment. I will probably vote Naria, since I believe she's a wolf (based on Rune's death). Other than her, I have no real suspects and that is no good. The wolves are still all alive and there's three o' them, so having just one suspect quite sucks.

Boromir still gives me a bad feeling. I know I can't put my finger on it, but he disturbs me. And the whole idea of making a Borolysis horrifies me... (and probably Noggie too, who shares the computer and is currently in two ww-games... )

Durelin, Farael, Valier, Di and Noggie all make sense and seem quite innocent (Farael and Durelin mainly based on their latest long posts, Valier, Noggie and Di more generally). They're all people I'm not very suspicious of. Now this is no good either since that is half of the village. (Of course one could argue that if I find five people innocentish + know I'm innocent myself, 3/4 of the ones left must be wolves if I'm right and I should be just happy of having narrowed my worry-about list quite effectively... )
I see I'm making a mess of this, so simply put: I find these people innocentish but I feel uncomfortable with narrowing my suspect list with this big a group in this situation (7 of us against 3 of them), so I won't be doing it. If any of you is a wolf I congratulate for a convincing innocentishness.

So, with the innocentish five, innocent myself, vaguely suspicious Boro and suspicious Naria I'm left with Volo and CoD, of which at least one should be guilty if I'm correct about the innocentish five (which I'm not assuming). I don't particularly suspect Volo and CoD seems either mislead/-taken-innocentish or quite wolvish.The problem is that CoD being guilty kind of ruins the theory based on which I regard Naria suspicious... Hey! What if (I just realised there's a possibility of this) the wolves thought Rune to be seer (since he nailed Nariawolf) and assumed that seer-Rune's another dream was of a dead one and decided to kill him both to eliminate a possible seer and making CoD look innocent for the village. Now that I've put it "into paper" it seems quite unpossible (and I'm not even sure if it tactically makes sense), but we shouldn't forget the possibility. If that was the cause indeed, Rune was an ideal pick for them.

So, if I was to guess who the remaining wolves are, I'd say Naria, Boro and CoD or Volo, but I'm far from assured.

If you understood anything of this post or it made sense to you, I congratulate, for I see I managed to make it very confusing (but unfortunately I can't make it any clearer, blame either a freaky way of thinking and expressing thoughts or broken English...) ...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by me

In this village, I'd rather hear all people have to say regardless of how long posts it will make.

I'm not sure if this can be understood, anyway, what I meant was "In this village, I'd rather hear all what people have to say regardless of how long posts it will make" or "In this village, I'd rather hear everything people have to say regardless of how long posts it will make".

[Nogrod]

Being in two games at the sametime (not intentional), sharing the computer with another WW-player (Lommy) and trying to live (RL) at the same time seems to be a challenge...

But this is what I have thought of in general terms.

Now looking at the way the wolves have made their picks would either tell us that a) they are utterly comfortable with their situation in the village
b) they were comfortable on Day1 but went after a possible seer Rune last Night.

Now a) would suggest that the wolves are among those who have not been seriously challenged so far. Making the list to look just too long for my taste... Lommy, Di, Valier, Volo would top that list of mine as those who have been suspected the least.

But that means not that those with some minor suspicions (Boro, Durelin, Farael) would not be wolves at all. If a) is true, I believe it would be a combination of the two groups.

If b) is true we should go for either Naria or CoD.

There surely are possibilities that transcend these two options but nevertheless as probably only one of them is a wolf - if either of them is.

What I would like to point out again, then.

As I said earlier it's funny to see that Durelin and Di built up the death of Anguirel (which I accept sealing). Durelin has been most vocal this time, really putting effort into being reasonable - as she has been. Possibly a special role of a wolf would do that? And Di is just so verbiose that you should never underestimate her skills either... I don't say there is something exact in their posts that would merit myself voting for them but the situation is more one of occasion. We seem to be so at loss with our possible suspects and they seem to be floating over all the hassle down here... I don't know.

Still I believe I'm not going to vote either of them toDay. I would need something more solid to it.

I might go for Naria too for reasons I will be posting in a minute. Just need to check the situation and to refresh my head with some thinking. I would love to bring a new believable wolf-candidate to the discussion but this looks pretty confusing.

What that means: the wolves are good ones.

[Nogrod]

My idea for voting Naria was based more on the way she had performed earlier on Day1. Now as I looked back to it I'm not so sure anymore.

Surely she posted some nonconsequentals and then trailed my idea about CoD by adding one more detail to it (CoD might be the cobbler - which turned out not so good idea in theory after a short while and was proven wrong in practise last Night). What made me look at it twice in the first place was the way she reacted around the village: posting some safe nonsense first and then trying to look reasonable by affirming a "theory" that had been brought forwards, staying quiet and in the shadows most of the time.

To this we still might add Lommy's theory about Rune being the wolves guess for Seer and Di's remarks on Naria actually not helping us at all (even though for a reason of being sick). It looks somewhat plausible, but something just tells me we are mislead again...

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

So, if I was to guess who the remaining wolves are, I'd say Naria, Boro and CoD or Volo, but I'm far from assured.

I quite agree with your listing at this point. I wouldn't place too much of a bet on any of them, but if I had to.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lommy, Di, Valier, Volo would top that list of mine as those who have been suspected the least.

And I'd like to add you somewhere on that list.

Edit: Cross-posted with Nogrod's second post.

[Volo]

I somehow feel less well with Nogrod now that I have read his posts again, I don't see any "points" in them.
Nogrod has been posting a lot, no doubt of that, but he has repeated things over and over, and that including mostly encouraging other players to make a point about this and that.
And he goes on the quiet players when he himself congratulates the wolves and talks about them being of the vocal players.
Nogrod's talk is agreeing or not agreeing with other players, but not telling anything new as a good player should.
He has time to be in WW, but he hasn't so far made any good points, or then I can't see them.

I have already once made a mistake on Nogrod for those same reasons (and you can't imagine how embarrassed I felt when after two weeks of certainty of catching a wolf I found out that he was a ranger instead), but...

I'll stay with CoD and add that I'm innocent, an innocent that is willing to die for the good of you other innocents, just I can't see what use you will have of me dying...

(I am not proud to be alive so long or anything as for the lack of time and not enough experience (that I do get by playing WW, and living) I am just a filler, I'll have a break from WW for a few weeks after this game until I maybe have enough time to do anything so demanding as WW on the computer, ignore this in the game)

[CaptainofDespair]

I have coursework to do, so I shall vote now in the event I do not find the time to post again.

++Naria

[Thinlómien]

I'm getting last minute bad feelings. My wits tell me to vote Naria, but my gut-feeling is actually that she maybe isn't bad after all. Really confusing. But I guess I'll still vote her, since I am suspicious of her and don't have very strong suspicions about any other person. I just hope my last-minute gut-feeling is wrong...

Originally Posted by Volo

I somehow feel less well with Nogrod now that I have read his posts again, I don't see any "points" in them.

I disagree, take the "CoD tries to play the seer" for an example.

Originally Posted by Volo

Nogrod has been posting a lot, no doubt of that, but he has repeated things over and over, and that including mostly encouraging other players to make a point about this and that.

A good point, I haven't apparently focused on that.

Originally Posted by Volo

And he goes on the quiet players when he himself congratulates the wolves and talks about them being of the vocal players.

That sounds rather funny.

Originally Posted by Volo

. . . an innocent that is willing to die for the good of you other innocents, just I can't see what use you will have of me dying...

If you're innocent then the best thing you can do to us is to stay alive and discuss and make points about possible wolves, not die.

Originally Posted by Volo

(I am not proud to be alive so long or anything as for the lack of time and not enough experience (that I do get by playing WW, and living) I am just a filler, I'll have a break from WW for a few weeks after this game until I maybe have enough time to do anything so demanding as WW on the computer, ignore this in the game)

Now, what's that?

[Durelin]

Another thing I noticed about Volo:

Originally Posted by Volo

Of Farael I'll just say that the long post itself is reassuring and I doubt that most wolves would write something like that, for that I really feel like voting ++CoD.

That was yesterday...

But now he thinks CoD is innocent? Perhaps he was swayed by CoD's vote for Naria.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Boro

2) The wolves as Lommy points out believed Rune was the seer and this would put a mark on Naria and Volo...as those seem to be the two people he 'suspected' the most. This begs the again, just exactly how much reliablity can we put in Rune's 'suspicions?'

Volo, too...but he didn't get nearly so much attention as Naria. Boro was kind enough to bring him up, though...

(These are just general observations which I hope might be helpful...and I'm posting them as I find them, as obnoxious as that might be...)