Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the phantom · 11-14-2006, 10:39 PM

Yesterday's voting-

Ang for tp (1)
Di for Boro (1)
SPM for tp (2)
Mith for Beth (1)
Eomer for lmp (1)
lmp for Ang (1)
Kath for tp (3)
Esty for Boro (2)
Nogrod for SPM (1)
Roa for Di (1)
lmp take back Ang (0)
lmp for Di
Boro for SPM
SPM take back tp (2)
SPM for lmp (2)
morm for Boro (3)
tp for Di (3)

I almost got you there at the end, Di!

But poor Boro got the axe instead.

I told you he wasn't a WW. I've been in villages with him before. I've been a WW with him before. I know the way he thinks and posts. He was, in my mind, the most clearly innocent person.

And in case you wonder why I chose to tie Di with him rather than lmp or SPM, it's because I'm more comfortable with those two. I have no doubt that I could much more easily pick out a WW SPM or lmp than a WW Di. I've seen less of her, plus I've never ever seen her as a baddie. As the game progresses, I will without a doubt begin to form a clearer picture in my mind of whether or not SPM and lmp are innocent (right or wrong), therefore I want to keep them around. Di, on the other hand- it's possible I will never gain a handle on her guilt/innocence.

That's why I tried to get you killed, m'dear. No hard feelings.

Now I'm going to take a general look at yesterday and give a couple thoughts.

1) Mith for Beth?? Very odd. Were Fea's WWs given special instructions to create as much chaos as possible? If so, Mith's vote would fit. I'm not sure what to think.

2) I find lmp's votes slightly suspicious. Did he vote for Ang thinking he'd get a counter-phantom-bandwagon vote started? And when it didn't pan out, he threw his weight onto Di. This seems like the smart choice at this point for a WW. Don't vote for the current leaders (me-3, Boro-2), but rather elevate someone else into frontrunner status. Also, lmp's post #128 rubs me the wrong way. There's just something about it... the wording. It reminds me of me when I've been a WW.

3) My suspicion of lmp leads me to lean towards SPM's innocence. He did change his vote from me to lmp after all. Sauce- did lmp's post #128 make you uncomfortable as well? But I haven't completely cleared you. I'm still wondering if your statement about the rules at the beginning of the village was a ploy. The thing is, the information you gave as far as I understand turned out to be incorrect (WWs are in fact on a team according to Fea), so did you give incorrect info about the WWs so people would think "My goodness- he didn't even know the way the WW role worked. He couldn't possibly be one." But, there is also another ploy that you could've been attempting to execute as an innocent, so I'm up in the air on it. And no, don't ask me to explain the ploy (until after this is over). If I say it then I'll negate its power.

4) Roa, m'dear, it pains me to say it but both yesterday and today you fell head first into a trap of mine. You see, one of your complaints about my behavior was something that I was actually doing purposefully as a ploy, and I was betting that WWs would have a certain reaction to it. Not that I'm saying I'm sure you're a WW. Depending on your personality, it's possible my trap misfired. I'm not going to start gunning for you yet, but I will watch to see if you continue to travel down the path. And yes, I'll eventually explain what this "trap" is that I'm speaking of (later today), and when I do you can tell me what you think of it and by all means vote to lynch me if you don't like my explanation, but I feel the need to leave it alone just for a few hours.

5) Nogrod is innocent.

the phantom · 11-14-2006, 10:57 PM

Quote:

his pessimism and statements about analysis being useless irk me

Boo hoo.

I'm just trying to be realistic. The idea of analyzing WW teamwork has been removed. You can't deny that. The idea of analyzing WW kills has been muddled. You can't deny that. WWs have no way of planning nightly kills together. You can't deny that. WWs have no way of discussing strategy. You can't deny that. Without a Seer it is impossible to have concrete knowledge of innocence or guilt until death. You can't deny that.

If the villagers win, or the WWs win, it will simply make them champions of "Blind Luck". That's why I said it would annoy me to be a WW in this game. I wouldn't feel as if I had proven anything.

Not that I wouldn't try my best.

And probably win.

the phantom · 11-15-2006, 12:05 AM

Why was morm killed?

I can only suppose because he's a bright chap, and because there are several people here who are familiar enough with him that would probably come to the conclusion that he was innocent before too long.

He was, for me anyway, in the same boat as SPM and lmp. I want them around because I'm more comfortable getting a feeling about them than I am for some others. By day 3 or so I have little doubt that I would've had a good sense of where morm stood, and chances are I would've come to the right conclusion about him.

Along this line of thinking, I'm wondering if maybe the WWs are killing off the least random/crazy people, and will let be individuals capable of madness and more unpredictable behavior. It would make sense after all. This is a village designed to be more random than others. If this is what the WWs are doing, then Nogrod and SPM won't live long. Mith and Di, on the other hand, have little to fear at night.

Diamond18 · 11-15-2006, 02:22 AM

Quote:

Mith and Di, on the other hand, have little to fear at night.

Well, that's nice to hear. At least with my nemesis Boromir gone I can rest a little easier. (See Jenny and Sleepy's last game for details).

Quote:

I almost got you there at the end, Di!

But poor Boro got the axe instead.

You are very lucky you did not succeed, as standing in the way of my revenge would have shot you right to the top of my "to kill" list. As is, I'm not going to throw away that half completed sketch of you with various knives sticking out away just yet.

But seeing as how Roa wants you dead, I can hardly vote for you, can I?

Yes, in this game I'm just trying to see how annoyingly petty I can be before people lynch me for the pure frustration of it.

Diamond18 · 11-15-2006, 02:34 AM

I do not understand Fea's narration.

Do we know if morm was innocent or a wolf?

Because, even as a wolf he could have fallen prey to his fellow wolf, right?

And I don't understand the conversation between the dark lady and the wolves. It seems to mean something. But I don't understand what.

Nogrod · 11-15-2006, 03:55 AM

I must agree somewhat with tp as I have had some time to think about the game dynamics here. The room for rational arguments and cases to be made are surely narrowed down considerably in this one. With this bunch of players able to stay calm/carnevalistic and capable of double-/triple bluffing it would have been pretty hard to go after the wolves in an ordinary game already. But I'd like to share Roa's optimism too. There must be something... we just have to find it.

Just a few minor notes as I just finished reading this opus.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fea #95

Everybody works for their side to win. That doesn't specifically mean that anybody is working together.

Now this seems most curious! Specifically? I don't believe that word is there unintentionally... Breaking this knot might be one way of easing our task here, possibly... hopefully...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Di #130

Don't say I didn't warn you not to disregard the rule. Not that it won't give me satisfaction to say "I told you so" of course. But I wouldn't invoke the sacred rule in a dishonest fashion, that would be... dishonest. Which is evil.

In a case you are wolf, you are evil anyway! Thence you are very capable of invoking it in dishonest fashion...

And Spm, I "jumped" on your "misconceived attempts at strategy" (as you paraphrase it) because I had nothing better to go with and still wished to have a reason to my vote. ToDay I will be much more reluctant to vote for you as I have read what has happened since I got away from this yesterDay.

But that means I have to come up with a better one in this labyrinth.

**The Saucepan Man** · 11-15-2006, 03:57 AM

OK, some quick thoughts, as I must go soon and won’t have a chance to get back until later today.

I am rather amused, phantom, that you took the time to explain how unconcerned you were about being lynched as part of your continuing effort to address and dismiss my suspicions of you, particularly as I had already switched my vote from you (thus, effectively saving you from being the one who’s life would hang in the balance with Boro’s).

I am glad that I did, though. At the time that I switched my vote, my suspicion of you had lessened considerably and I am now pretty much content to trust you, for the time being at least. Re-reading your contributions overnight, they come across genuine enough and it seems to me that you were far more vocal yesterday than I would expect a Wolf to be on Day 1, particularly in this game. Your attempts to defend yourself (more, now I think of it, than I would expect from a Wolf) and your “pessimism” aside (and I can understand what you were trying to achieve here), your contributions yesterday were some of the best, in terms of trying to flush out the Wolves.

For now, therefore, the phantom is off my lynch list. I fully appreciate that he is quite capable of giving a very effective impression of innocence, and I could be having the wool pulled over my eyes big time here (by a "Wolf in sheep's clothing"). But, even in this game, an innocent phantom is a formidable asset to the village, so I am prepared to take that risk for the time being.

I have come to the conclusion that the best strategy for a Wolf on Day 1 would have been to lay relatively low, say or do little that was controversial, but at the same time make sure that their presence was felt.

The three that best exemplified that approach, it seems to me, were the three ‘Es’: Eomer, Estelyn and Elempi. All three, I might add, are very plausible choices by Fea for Wolf, if we are working on the basis that one of the Wolves, at least, was not randomly selected.

My main suspicions remain with Elempi, since I would expect a Wolf on Day 1 to at least try to give some reasoning for their vote, to avoid being challenged for unreasoned voting. The votes of both Eomer and Esty were pretty much unreasoned, but Elempi attempted to explain his reasoning for voting for Di. And, as I noted when I voted for him yesterday, it was pretty poor reasoning. Di was far from being the only villager to have made a point of declaring her innocence before any serious suspicion was cast in her direction. The phantom (in the first post of the day) and Esty did the same, as, effectively, did Elempi and Boro.

For this reason, I also have slight concerns about Roa, as her reasoning for suspecting Di follows along similar lies. You find it suspicious that Di would invoke “Diamond’s rule” so early. Yet you make no comment about others having done much the same.

Like Di, I would welcome any thoughts on Fea's narration (as I too feel that there may be some clues there), and also her blog - which we are directed to look at by the "?". Does she perhps have something against people who wear shawls?

That’s all I’ve got time for now. Back later.

Estelyn Telcontar · 11-15-2006, 04:08 AM

I, too, find Fea's narration far from understandable and must assume, since she is skilful and deliberate with words, that it is so for a purpose. Can it be that we will not find out which of the deceased were wolves or innocents until the game is over? In that case, we have no increasing chance of voting with any kind of logic as the game proceeds.

From the words of the Dark Lady, you would think that her displeasure results from the choice of one of her vassals for killing. But there is no word about the physical shape of the slain, neither one way or the other.

Though it is regrettable that I chose wrongly in voting for Boromir on the first Day, it was statistically inevitable. I have no idea yet whom I will choose toDay. I am reading the various analyses with great interest, but as I said above, I'm not sure the chances of improving our accuracy in targeting WWs will have improved toDay.

littlemanpoet · 11-15-2006, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

My main suspicions remain with Elempi, since I would expect a Wolf on Day 1 to at least try to give some reasoning for their vote, to avoid being challenged for unreasoned voting. The votes of both Eomer and Esty were pretty much unreasoned, but Elempi attempted to explain his reasoning for voting for Di. And, as I noted when I voted for him yesterday, it was pretty poor reasoning. Di was far from being the only villager to have made a point of declaring her innocence before any serious suspicion was cast in her direction. The phantom (in the first post of the day) and Esty did the same, as, effectively, did Elempi and Boro.

Thou metatarsil of a gnat.

Is that the best reasoning you can do? This is what your suspicions are based on? I expect better from you.

Let's see now, why might SPM say that he suspects Elempi?

- he is innocent and is trying to use loyerly reasoning in a setting that fails to give him the needed evidence, so he grasps at straws

- he is innocent and simply always suspects Elempi anyway, so is playing true to form

- he is a werewolf and has chosen his first distractor, which had worked quite well for him according to precedent, keeping the target away from him for three whole days.

Well, I'm not going to let it happen this time. I quit now.

Just kidding.

SPM is just as dangerous in this game as any, whether innocent and a threat to the werewolves, or a werewolf and a threat to the village. The odds are 2 in 13 that he is innocent; but if he is not, he is a most dangerous enemy. Let us take care.

littlemanpoet · 11-15-2006, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom in post #151

2) I find lmp's votes slightly suspicious. Did he vote for Ang thinking he'd get a counter-phantom-bandwagon vote started? And when it didn't pan out, he threw his weight onto Di. This seems like the smart choice at this point for a WW. Don't vote for the current leaders (me-3, Boro-2), but rather elevate someone else into frontrunner status. Also, lmp's post #128 rubs me the wrong way. There's just something about it... the wording. It reminds me of me when I've been a WW.

In my defense, the Precious Prism to the Eighteenth Power Protested too Prodigeously for my liking. My original vote for SPM was spleen in combination with his "if I were a werewolf" early post. That for D18 based on her unnecessary defense which struck me as likely as not as that of a first time werewolf whose nerves have gotten to her.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom in the same post

3) My suspicion of lmp leads me to lean towards SPM's innocence. He did change his vote from me to lmp after all. Sauce- did lmp's post #128 make you uncomfortable as well? But I haven't completely cleared you. I'm still wondering if your statement about the rules at the beginning of the village was a ploy. The thing is, the information you gave as far as I understand turned out to be incorrect (WWs are in fact on a team according to Fea), so did you give incorrect info about the WWs so people would think "My goodness- he didn't even know the way the WW role worked. He couldn't possibly be one." But, there is also another ploy that you could've been attempting to execute as an innocent, so I'm up in the air on it. And no, don't ask me to explain the ploy (until after this is over). If I say it then I'll negate its power.

Since I am not a werewolf (I shall say that only once), does SPM therefore seem the more guilty? I also found his early comment on what a werewolf's strategy might/ought to be, quite suspicious, as I mentioned above.

Additionally, you mistake yourself by thinking "if I were a werewolf I would do what LMP is doing", because my typical pattern, as any who have played with me should know by now, is that when I am cantankerous it is because I have no felt need for caution. My most cautiously played games were as a werewolf and as a seer. There are no seers, and I am not playing cautiously.

11-15-2006, 12:05 AM	#3
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Why was morm killed? I can only suppose because he's a bright chap, and because there are several people here who are familiar enough with him that would probably come to the conclusion that he was innocent before too long. He was, for me anyway, in the same boat as SPM and lmp. I want them around because I'm more comfortable getting a feeling about them than I am for some others. By day 3 or so I have little doubt that I would've had a good sense of where morm stood, and chances are I would've come to the right conclusion about him. Along this line of thinking, I'm wondering if maybe the WWs are killing off the least random/crazy people, and will let be individuals capable of madness and more unpredictable behavior. It would make sense after all. This is a village designed to be more random than others. If this is what the WWs are doing, then Nogrod and SPM won't live long. Mith and Di, on the other hand, have little to fear at night. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

11-15-2006, 02:34 AM	#5
Diamond18 Eidolon of a Took Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: my own private fantasy world Posts: 3,460	I do not understand Fea's narration. Do we know if morm was innocent or a wolf? Because, even as a wolf he could have fallen prey to his fellow wolf, right? And I don't understand the conversation between the dark lady and the wolves. It seems to mean something. But I don't understand what. __________________ All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression.

11-15-2006, 04:08 AM	#8
Estelyn Telcontar Princess of Skwerlz Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles) Posts: 7,500	I, too, find Fea's narration far from understandable and must assume, since she is skilful and deliberate with words, that it is so for a purpose. Can it be that we will not find out which of the deceased were wolves or innocents until the game is over? In that case, we have no increasing chance of voting with any kind of logic as the game proceeds. From the words of the Dark Lady, you would think that her displeasure results from the choice of one of her vassals for killing. But there is no word about the physical shape of the slain, neither one way or the other. Though it is regrettable that I chose wrongly in voting for Boromir on the first Day, it was statistically inevitable. I have no idea yet whom I will choose toDay. I am reading the various analyses with great interest, but as I said above, I'm not sure the chances of improving our accuracy in targeting WWs will have improved toDay. __________________ 'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...'

11-14-2006, 10:39 PM	#1
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Yesterday's voting- Ang for tp (1) Di for Boro (1) SPM for tp (2) Mith for Beth (1) Eomer for lmp (1) lmp for Ang (1) Kath for tp (3) Esty for Boro (2) Nogrod for SPM (1) Roa for Di (1) lmp take back Ang (0) lmp for Di Boro for SPM SPM take back tp (2) SPM for lmp (2) morm for Boro (3) tp for Di (3) I almost got you there at the end, Di! But poor Boro got the axe instead. I told you he wasn't a WW. I've been in villages with him before. I've been a WW with him before. I know the way he thinks and posts. He was, in my mind, the most clearly innocent person. And in case you wonder why I chose to tie Di with him rather than lmp or SPM, it's because I'm more comfortable with those two. I have no doubt that I could much more easily pick out a WW SPM or lmp than a WW Di. I've seen less of her, plus I've never ever seen her as a baddie. As the game progresses, I will without a doubt begin to form a clearer picture in my mind of whether or not SPM and lmp are innocent (right or wrong), therefore I want to keep them around. Di, on the other hand- it's possible I will never gain a handle on her guilt/innocence. That's why I tried to get you killed, m'dear. No hard feelings. Now I'm going to take a general look at yesterday and give a couple thoughts. 1) Mith for Beth?? Very odd. Were Fea's WWs given special instructions to create as much chaos as possible? If so, Mith's vote would fit. I'm not sure what to think. 2) I find lmp's votes slightly suspicious. Did he vote for Ang thinking he'd get a counter-phantom-bandwagon vote started? And when it didn't pan out, he threw his weight onto Di. This seems like the smart choice at this point for a WW. Don't vote for the current leaders (me-3, Boro-2), but rather elevate someone else into frontrunner status. Also, lmp's post #128 rubs me the wrong way. There's just something about it... the wording. It reminds me of me when I've been a WW. 3) My suspicion of lmp leads me to lean towards SPM's innocence. He did change his vote from me to lmp after all. Sauce- did lmp's post #128 make you uncomfortable as well? But I haven't completely cleared you. I'm still wondering if your statement about the rules at the beginning of the village was a ploy. The thing is, the information you gave as far as I understand turned out to be incorrect (WWs are in fact on a team according to Fea), so did you give incorrect info about the WWs so people would think "My goodness- he didn't even know the way the WW role worked. He couldn't possibly be one." But, there is also another ploy that you could've been attempting to execute as an innocent, so I'm up in the air on it. And no, don't ask me to explain the ploy (until after this is over). If I say it then I'll negate its power. 4) Roa, m'dear, it pains me to say it but both yesterday and today you fell head first into a trap of mine. You see, one of your complaints about my behavior was something that I was actually doing purposefully as a ploy, and I was betting that WWs would have a certain reaction to it. Not that I'm saying I'm sure you're a WW. Depending on your personality, it's possible my trap misfired. I'm not going to start gunning for you yet, but I will watch to see if you continue to travel down the path. And yes, I'll eventually explain what this "trap" is that I'm speaking of (later today), and when I do you can tell me what you think of it and by all means vote to lynch me if you don't like my explanation, but I feel the need to leave it alone just for a few hours. 5) Nogrod is innocent. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

11-15-2006, 03:57 AM	#7
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	OK, some quick thoughts, as I must go soon and won’t have a chance to get back until later today. I am rather amused, phantom, that you took the time to explain how unconcerned you were about being lynched as part of your continuing effort to address and dismiss my suspicions of you, particularly as I had already switched my vote from you (thus, effectively saving you from being the one who’s life would hang in the balance with Boro’s). I am glad that I did, though. At the time that I switched my vote, my suspicion of you had lessened considerably and I am now pretty much content to trust you, for the time being at least. Re-reading your contributions overnight, they come across genuine enough and it seems to me that you were far more vocal yesterday than I would expect a Wolf to be on Day 1, particularly in this game. Your attempts to defend yourself (more, now I think of it, than I would expect from a Wolf) and your “pessimism” aside (and I can understand what you were trying to achieve here), your contributions yesterday were some of the best, in terms of trying to flush out the Wolves. For now, therefore, the phantom is off my lynch list. I fully appreciate that he is quite capable of giving a very effective impression of innocence, and I could be having the wool pulled over my eyes big time here (by a "Wolf in sheep's clothing"). But, even in this game, an innocent phantom is a formidable asset to the village, so I am prepared to take that risk for the time being. I have come to the conclusion that the best strategy for a Wolf on Day 1 would have been to lay relatively low, say or do little that was controversial, but at the same time make sure that their presence was felt. The three that best exemplified that approach, it seems to me, were the three ‘Es’: Eomer, Estelyn and Elempi. All three, I might add, are very plausible choices by Fea for Wolf, if we are working on the basis that one of the Wolves, at least, was not randomly selected. My main suspicions remain with Elempi, since I would expect a Wolf on Day 1 to at least try to give some reasoning for their vote, to avoid being challenged for unreasoned voting. The votes of both Eomer and Esty were pretty much unreasoned, but Elempi attempted to explain his reasoning for voting for Di. And, as I noted when I voted for him yesterday, it was pretty poor reasoning. Di was far from being the only villager to have made a point of declaring her innocence before any serious suspicion was cast in her direction. The phantom (in the first post of the day) and Esty did the same, as, effectively, did Elempi and Boro. For this reason, I also have slight concerns about Roa, as her reasoning for suspecting Di follows along similar lies. You find it suspicious that Di would invoke “Diamond’s rule” so early. Yet you make no comment about others having done much the same. Like Di, I would welcome any thoughts on Fea's narration (as I too feel that there may be some clues there), and also her blog - which we are directed to look at by the "?". Does she perhps have something against people who wear shawls? That’s all I’ve got time for now. Back later.